Hempel's Raven paradox: A lacuna in the standard bayesian solution

British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (3):545-560 (2004)
  Copy   BIBTEX


According to Hempel's paradox, evidence (E) that an object is a nonblack nonraven confirms the hypothesis (H) that every raven is black. According to the standard Bayesian solution, E does confirm H but only to a minute degree. This solution relies on the almost never explicitly defended assumption that the probability of H should not be affected by evidence that an object is nonblack. I argue that this assumption is implausible, and I propose a way out for Bayesians. Introduction Hempel's paradox, the standard Bayesian solution, and the disputed assumption Attempts to defend the disputed assumption Attempts to refute the disputed assumption A way out for Bayesians Conclusion.

Author's Profile

Peter Vranas
University of Wisconsin, Madison


Added to PP

797 (#9,474)

6 months
70 (#16,201)

Historical graph of downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.
How can I increase my downloads?