"If event E had occurred, someone would know of documentary evidence for E; someone does not know of documentary evidence for E; therefore, E did not occur." The conditional in this model of arguments from silence is probabalistic if its consequent is not deducible from the antecedent, relevant conditions, and laws. In interesting cases arguments from silence are rarely rationally, and never logically, conclusive. Specific instances of the argument must be evaluated individually, their persuasiveness depending mainly on the likelihood of (...) documents being available in a given type of case. (shrink)

Normal 0 0 1 85 487 UBC 4 1 598 11.773 0 0 0 Under what conditions is the failure to have evidence that p evidence that p is false? Absent evidence reasoning is common in many sciences, including astronomy, archeology, biology and medicine. An often-repeated epistemological motto is that “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Analysis of absent evidence reasoning usually takes place in a deductive or frequentist hypothesis-testing framework. Instead, I develop a Bayesian analysis of (...) this motto and prove that, under plausible assumptions about the nature of evidence, the absence of evidence is evidence of absence. (shrink)