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Principal Values and Weak Expectations

Mind 123 (490):517-531 (2014)

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Decision Theory Meets the Witch of Agnesi.J. McKenzie Alexander - 2012 - Journal of Philosophy 109 (12):712-727.details In the course of history, many individuals have the dubious honor of being remembered primarily for an eponym of which they would disapprove. How many are aware that Joseph-Ignace Guillotin actually opposed the death penalty? Another notable case is that of Maria Agnesi, an Italian woman of privileged, but not noble, birth who excelled at mathematics and philosophy during the eighteenth century. In her treatise of 1748, Instituzioni Analitiche, she provided a comprehensive summary of the current state of knowledge concerning (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 4 citations
Unexpected Expectations.Alan Hájek - 2014 - Mind 123 (490):533-567.details A decade ago, Harris Nover and I introduced the Pasadena game, which we argued gives rise to a new paradox in decision theory even more troubling than the St Petersburg paradox. Gwiazda's and Smith's articles in this volume both offer revisionist solutions. I critically engage with both articles. They invite reflections on a number of deep issues in the foundations of decision theory, which I hope to bring out. These issues include: some ways in which orthodox decision theory might be (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 18 citations
Orderly Expectations.Jeremy Gwiazda - 2014 - Mind 123 (490):503-516.details In some games, the products of the probabilities times the payouts result in a series that is conditionally convergent, which means that the sum can vary based on the order in which the products are summed. The purpose of this paper is to address the question: How should such games be valued? We first show that, contrary to widespread belief, summing in the order determined by the mechanism of the game does not lead to the correct value. We then consider (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 7 citations
Strong and weak expectations.Kenny Easwaran - 2008 - Mind 117 (467):633-641.details Fine has shown that assigning any value to the Pasadena game is consistent with a certain standard set of axioms for decision theory. However, I suggest that it might be reasonable to believe that the value of an individual game is constrained by the long-run payout of repeated plays of the game. Although there is no value that repeated plays of the Pasadena game converges to in the standard strong sense, I show that there is a weaker sort of convergence (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 23 citations
Probability: Theory and Examples.Rick Durrett - 2005 - Thomson.details This book is an introduction to probability theory covering laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theorems, and Brownian motion. It is a comprehensive treatment concentrating on the results that are the most useful for applications. Its philosophy is that the best way to learn probability is to see it in action, so there are 200 examples and 450 problems. Download Export citation Bookmark 10 citations

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