The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the (...) most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s). (shrink)

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In the present article we analyze the relationships between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and offer forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave. We use for our analysis the basic ideas of long cycles' theory and related theories (theories of the leading sector, technological styles etc.) as well as the ideas of our own theory of production principles and production revolutions. The latest of production revolution is the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in (...) the 1950s. We assume that in the 2030s and 2040s the sixth K-wave will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough inmedical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single system of MANBRIC-technologies (medico-additive-nano-bio-roboto-info-cognitive technologies). The article also presents a forecast of the process of global ageing and argueswhy the technological breakthrough will occur in health care sector and connected spheres. (shrink)

Go to Grazia Ietto-Gillies’ paper here ›.

An interdisciplinary approach was used to analyse multicomplex issues of the Covid-19 crisis, demonstrated also by the Economics of innovation. The Economics of innovation is useful when analysing a unique feedback of megatrends and the emergence of liminal crisis innovations. The purpose of this paper is, in spite of many statements to the contrary, to prove that innovative activity may serve as the key to unlocking a post-crisis economic development. Analyses presented in the paper are based on the Polish and (...) foreign literature on the subject, reports on research conducted in many research centres and the author’s own observation at the Social Innovation Council. Three research themes are signalled: 1) the reality of the crisis in the aspect of Covid-19 pandemic and other crises in the literature studies and in practice; 2) innovation as the driving force for recovering from the Covid-19 crisis; 3) Coronavirus support: the activity of the state and social expectations. Conclusions and recommendations contained in this paper are, to a large extent, based on hermeneutics; they also stem from statistical data analyses and own research. (shrink)

This article critically discusses the state of STS, expressing feelings of discontent regarding four aspects: policy relevance, conceptual language, too much focus on complexity, theoretical styles. Middle range theory is proposed as an alternative, promising avenue. Middle range theories focus on delimited topics, make explicit efforts to combine concepts, and search for abstracted patterns and explanatory mechanisms. The article presents achievements in that direction for technology dynamics, particularly with regard to the role of expectations, niche theory and radical innovation, and (...) the multi-level perspective on sociotechnical transitions. (shrink)