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Andrey Korotayev [19]Andrey V. Korotayev [2]
  1.  44
    Forthcoming Kondratieff Wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and Global Ageing.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change 115:52-68.
    In the present article we analyze the relationships between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and offer forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave. We use for our analysis the basic ideas of long cycles' theory and related theories (theories of the leading sector, technological styles etc.) as well as the ideas of our own theory of production principles and production revolutions. The latest of production revolution is the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in (...)
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  2.  19
    Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2016 - Journal of Globalization Studies 7 (2):11-31.
    Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future (...)
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  3.  37
    Economic Development, Sociopolitical Destabilization and Inequality.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Kira Meshcherina, Stanislav Bilyuga & Alisa Shishkina - 2017 - Russian Sociological Review 16 (3):9-35.
    In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify certain limits for such an explanation. Our tests reveal for low and middle income countries (...)
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  4.  28
    Akamatsu Waves.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics:1-16.
    In 1937, the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu discovered specific links between the rise and decline of the global peripheries. Akamatsu’s theory of development describes certain mechanisms whose working results in the narrowing of the gap between the level of development of the economy of developing and developed countries, and, thus, in the re-structuring of the relationships between the global core and the global periphery. Akamatsu developed his model on the basis of his analysis of the economic development of Japan before (...)
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  5.  38
    Дефляция как болезнь современных развитых стран.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Анализ и моделирование мировой и страновой динамики: методология и базовые модели. Moscow,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 241-270.
    В последние два-три года среди многочислен- ных проблем в отношении европейской и американской экономики все чаще стала упоминаться опасность дефляции. При этом в каче- стве примера рассматривается японская экономика, которая уже два десятилетия страдает от дефляции, несмотря на огромные раз- меры финансовых вливаний и усилия правительства разогнать ин- фляцию. В западных экономиках инфляция также низкая, времена- ми нулевая, переходящая в дефляцию. В целом есть основания счи- тать, что страны Европы заболевают «японской болезнью», а также что эта «болезнь» может прогрессировать либо (...)
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  6.  22
    Revolution and Democracy: Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Modernisation.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2016 - Cejiss 3:110-130.
    The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabilisation in the process of political transformation are among the most important issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unprepared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or similar large-scale events. The authors believe that in a (...)
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  7.  20
    World Order Transformation and Sociopolitical Destabilization.Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Issaev, Alisa Shishkina, Evgeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina - 2017 - Basic Research Program: Working Papers.
    The present working paper analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal contradictions of the current unipolar (...)
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  8.  15
    The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Industry 4.0 - Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital Landscape: What is Coming on Along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution:243-261.
    In this chapter, we analyze the relationship between Kondratieff waves and major technological revolutions on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, and offer some forecasts about the features of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave/the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We show that the technological breakthrough of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave may be interpreted as both the Fourth Industrial Revolution and as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s (...)
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  9.  14
    Глобальное Старение Населения, Шестой Технологический Уклад И Мировая Финансовая Система.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), История и математика: футурологические и методологические аспекты. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 31-56.
    Процесс старения населения захватил не только развитые страны, но и многие развивающиеся, превратившись в глобальный. Представляется, что он будет одним из самых важных процессов в ближайшие десятилетия, определяющим облик общества буду-щего и направление развития технологий. В статье дается анализ некоторых параметров процесса старения населения, показаны его важные следствия для общества и мира в целом. На основании этого анализа делается вывод о том, что грядущий технологиче-ский переворот (обозначаемый авторами как завершающая фаза кибернетической революции) и предполагаемый шестой техноло-гический уклад, связанный с наступающей (...)
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  10. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2010 - Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
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  11.  20
    Globalization and the World System Evolution.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Evolution: Development Within Different Paradigms 6 (11):30-68.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effective-ness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years Before the Common Era. (...)
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  12.  20
    Urbanization and Political Development of the World System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Entelequia 15:197-255.
    Section 1 of this article presents a mathematical analysis of the longterm global urbanization dynamics and demonstrates that it could be described as a series of phase transitions between attraction basins. This makes it possible to suggest new approaches to the analysis of global social macroevolution. Section 2 presents a threestage model of the macroevolution of the World System statehood (early – developed – mature state) that, we believe, describes the main features of political macroevolution better than the twostage model (...)
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  13.  12
    Modeling of Biological and Social Phases of Big History.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Alexander V. Markov - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 111-150.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the (...)
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  14.  12
    Will the Explosive Growth of China Continue?Leonid Grinin, Sergey Tsirel & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change 95:394-308.
    The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development (...)
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  15.  11
    From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations.Leonid Grinin, Barry Rodrigue & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In From Big Bang to Galactic Civilizations: A Big History Anthology. Delhi, India: Primus Books. pp. 1-18.
    Each scientific study emerges in its own particular time and marks a new step in the development of human thought.1 Big History materialized to satisfy the human need for a unified vision of our existence. It came together in the waning decades of the twentieth century, in part, as a reaction to the specialization of scholarship and education that had taken hold around the world. While this specialization had great results, it created barriers that stood in contrast to a growing (...)
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  16.  11
    Globalization, Revolutions, and Democracy.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Ilya Ilyin, Peter Herrmann & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Big History & Global History. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 87-109.
    This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable (...)
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  17.  11
    Once More About Aspects, Directions, General Patterns and Principles of Evolutionary Development.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-19.
    The present volume is the fourth issue of the Almanac series entitled ‘Evolu-tion’. Thus, one can maintain that our Almanac, which has actually turned into a Yearbook, has succeeded (see below). The title of the present volume is ‘From Big Bang to Nanorobots’. In this way we demonstrate that all phases of megaevolution and Big History are cov-ered in the articles of the present Yearbook. Several articles also present fore-casts about possible future developments. The main objective of our Yearbook as (...)
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  18.  9
    Глобальное старение населения, шестой технологический уклад и мировая финансовая система.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & V. Bondarenko (eds.), Кондратьевские волны: наследие и современность. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 107-132.
    Процесс старения населения захватил не только развитые страны, но и многие развивающиеся, превратившись в глобальный. Представляется, что он будет одним из самых важных процессов в ближайшие десятилетия, определяющим облик общества буду-щего и направление развития технологий. В статье дается анализ некоторых параметров процесса старения населения, показыва-ются его важные следствия для общества и мира в целом. На ос-новании этого анализа делается вывод о том, что грядущий тех-нологический переворот (обозначаемый авторами как завершаю-щая фаза кибернетической революции) и предполагаемый шестой технологический уклад, связанный с наступающей (...)
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  19.  8
    Stability of Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Globalization: Revolution and Democracy.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2015 - Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 9 (2):01-34.
    Issues of sociopolitical systems’ stability and risks of their destabi-lization in process of political transformations belong to the most important ones as regards the social development perspectives, as has been shown again by the recent events in Ukraine. In this re-spect it appears necessary to note that the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of respective sociopolitical systems. This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high (...)
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  20.  43
    Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2016 - Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
    This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this (...)
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  21. Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Global Transformations and Global Future.Leonid Grinin, Ilya Illin, Andrey Korotayev & Peter Herrmann - 2016 - Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House.
    The present volume is the fifth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global Transformations and Global Future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. And our future can all means be global. However, is this statement justified? Indeed, in recent years, many have begun to claim that globalization has stalled, that we are rather dealing with the process of anti-globalization. Will (...)
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