Philosophers have developed three theories of luck: the probability theory, the modal theory, and the control theory. To help assess these theories, we conducted an empirical investigation of luck attributions. We created eight putative luck scenarios and framed each in either a positive or a negative light. Furthermore, we placed the critical luck event at the beginning, middle, or end of the scenario to see if the location of the event influenced luck attributions. We found that attributions of luckiness were (...) significantly influenced by the framing of the scenario and by the location of the critical event. Positively framing an event led to significantly higher lucky ratings than negatively framing the same exact event. And the closer a negative event was placed toward the end of a scenario, the more unlucky the event was rated. Overall, our results raise the possibility that there is no such thing as luck and thereby pose serious challenges to the three prominent theories of luck. We instead propose that luck may be a cognitive illusion, a mere narrative device used to frame stories of success or failure. (shrink)

Generally, the testimony of intoxicated witnesses has been considered relatively unreliable, but recent research has nuanced the knowledge base regarding these vulnerable witnesses.PurposeTo demonstrate the application of recent research findings regarding intoxicated witnesses to the statements made by a key witness to the murder of Olof Palme, Sweden's prime minister, in 1986. An additional purpose was to illustrate the use of a nuanced calculation of blood alcohol concentration for researchers.MethodsThe Palme murder has been debated since the crime was committed and (...) no one has yet been sentenced. One of the witnesses was intoxicated and to estimate a range for his BAC at the time, a comprehensive BAC calculation was conducted in this study to illustrate important factors to consider in these types of cases.ResultsThrough the demonstration of the use of a nuanced BAC formula and by applying recent research results from studies on intoxicated witnesses, it was estimated that the possible BAC of the witness in the Palme-case at the time of the witnessed crime ranged between BAC = 0 to BAC = 0.13, depending on the type of alcoholic beverage consumed and whether the witness was a social or heavy drinker. This puts the witness either well within the span of maintained completeness as well as maintained accuracy rate, or slightly exceeding this span into the BAC-range of reduced completeness but maintained accuracy rate. He was questioned immediately, and thereafter repeatedly, and he reported similar information throughout the interviews, which is in line with previous results on information maintenance over repeated interviews among intoxicated witnesses.ConclusionThe current case example shows how recent research on intoxicated witnesses can be applied in praxis, illustrating important factors for legal practitioners to consider when interpreting information from intoxicated witnesses. It also provides legal practitioners and researchers with an example of a structured approach to more nuanced BAC-calculations. (shrink)