An important epistemic issue in climate modelling concerns structural uncertainty: uncertainty about whether the mathematical structure of a model accurately represents its target. How does structural uncertainty affect our knowledge and predictions about the climate? How can we identify sources of structural uncertainty? Can we manage the effect of structural uncertainty on our knowledge claims? These are some of the questions that an epistemology of structural uncertainty faces, and these questions are also important for climate scientists and policymakers. I develop (...) three desiderata for an epistemological account of structural uncertainty. In my view, an account of structural uncertainty should identify sources of structural uncertainty, explain how these sources limit the applicability of a model, and show how the severity of structural uncertainty depends on the questions that can be asked of a model. I argue that analyzing structural uncertainty by paying attention to the details of model building can satisfy these desiderata. I focus on parametrizations, which are representations of important processes occurring at scales that are not resolved by climate models. Parametrizations are often thought to be ad-hoc, but I show that some important parametrizations are theoretically justified by explicit or implicit scale separation assumptions. These assumptions can also be supported empirically. Analyzing these theoretical and empirical justificatory roles of the scale separation assumptions can provide insights into how parametrizations contribute to structural uncertainty. I conclude by sketching how my approach can satisfy the desiderata I set out at the beginning, highlighting its importance for policy-relevant scientific statements about the climate. (shrink)

Traditional frameworks for evaluating scientific models have tended to downplay their exploratory function; instead they emphasize how models are inherently intended for specific phenomena and are to be judged by their ability to predict, reproduce, or explain empirical observations. By contrast, this paper argues that exploration should stand alongside explanation, prediction, and representation as a core function of scientific models. Thus, models often serve as starting points for future inquiry, as proofs of principle, as sources of potential explanations, and as (...) a tool for reassessing the suitability of the target system. This is illustrated by a case study of the varied career of reaction-diffusion models in the study of biological pattern formation, which was initiated by Alan Turing in a classic 1952 paper. Initially regarded as mathematically elegant, but biologically irrelevant, demonstrations of how, in principle, spontaneous pattern formation could occur in an organism, such Turing models have only recently rebounded, thanks to advances in experimental techniques and computational methods. The long-delayed vindication of Turing’s initial model, it is argued, is best explained by recognizing it as an exploratory tool. (shrink)

There has been a lively debate in the philosophy of science over _predictivism_: the thesis that successfully predicting a given body of data provides stronger evidence for a theory than merely accommodating the same body of data. I argue for a very strong version of the thesis using statistical results on the so-called “model selection” problem. This is the problem of finding the optimal model (family of hypotheses) given a body of data. The key idea that I will borrow from (...) the statistical literature is that the level of support a hypothesis, _H,_ receives from a body of data, _D,_ is inversely related to the number of adjustable parameters of the model from which _H_ was constructed. I will argue that when _D_ is not essential to the design of _H_ (i.e., when it is predicted), the model to which _H_ belongs has fewer adjustable parameters than when _D_ is essential to the design of _H_ (when it is accommodated)_._ This, I argue, provides us with an argument for a very strong version of predictivism. (shrink)