Simpson's Paradox and Causality

American Philosophical Quarterly 52 (1):13-25 (2015)
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There are three questions associated with Simpson’s Paradox (SP): (i) Why is SP paradoxical? (ii) What conditions generate SP?, and (iii) What should be done about SP? By developing a logic-based account of SP, it is argued that (i) and (ii) must be divorced from (iii). This account shows that (i) and (ii) have nothing to do with causality, which plays a role only in addressing (iii). A counterexample is also presented against the causal account. Finally, the causal and logic-based approaches are compared by means of an experiment to show that SP is not basically causal.

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Don Dcruz
Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi


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