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  1. added 2020-05-20
    Trung tâm ISR có bài ra mừng 130 năm Ngày sinh Chủ tịch Hồ Chí Minh.Hồ Mạnh Toàn - 2020 - ISR Phenikaa 2020 (5):1-3.
    Bài mới xuất bản vào ngày 19-5-2020 với tác giả liên lạc là NCS Nguyễn Minh Hoàng, cán bộ nghiên cứu của Trung tâm ISR, trình bày tiếp cận thống kê Bayesian cho việc nghiên cứu dữ liệu khoa học xã hội. Đây là kết quả của định hướng Nhóm nghiên cứu SDAG được nêu rõ ngay từ ngày 18-5-2019.
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  2. added 2020-05-05
    Improving Bayesian Statistics Understanding in the Age of Big Data with the Bayesvl R Package.Quan-Hoang Vuong, Viet-Phuong La, Minh-Hoang Nguyen, Manh-Toan Ho, Manh-Tung Ho & Peter Mantello - 2020 - Software Impacts 4 (1):100016.
    The exponential growth of social data both in volume and complexity has increasingly exposed many of the shortcomings of the conventional frequentist approach to statistics. The scientific community has called for careful usage of the approach and its inference. Meanwhile, the alternative method, Bayesian statistics, still faces considerable barriers toward a more widespread application. The bayesvl R package is an open program, designed for implementing Bayesian modeling and analysis using the Stan language’s no-U-turn (NUTS) sampler. The package combines the ability (...)
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  3. added 2020-02-28
    Tiến triển của bayesvl kể từ sau khi xuất bản trên CRAN.Vương Quân Hoàng & Lã Việt Phương - manuscript
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  4. added 2019-12-24
    Nhà khoa học Việt đứng tên một mình trên tạp chí hàng đầu về khoa học dữ liệu của Nature Research.Thùy Dương - 2017 - Dân Trí Online 2017 (10).
    Dân Trí (25/10/2017) — Lần đầu tiên, có một nhà khoa học người Việt, thực hiện công trình nghiên cứu hoàn toàn 100% tại Việt Nam, đứng tên một mình được công bố tại tạp chí Scientific Data, một tạp chí hàng đầu về khoa học dữ liệu thuộc danh mục xuất bản của Nature Research danh tiếng.
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  5. added 2019-11-08
    An Automatic Ockham’s Razor for Bayesians?Gordon Belot - 2019 - Erkenntnis 84 (6):1361-1367.
    It is sometimes claimed that the Bayesian framework automatically implements Ockham’s razor—that conditionalizing on data consistent with both a simple theory and a complex theory more or less inevitably favours the simpler theory. It is shown here that the automatic razor doesn’t in fact cut it for certain mundane curve-fitting problems.
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  6. added 2019-10-17
    Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference.Jan Sprenger - 2020 - Philosophy of Science 87 (2):319-335.
    Why are conditional degrees of belief in an observation E, given a statistical hypothesis H, aligned with the objective probabilities expressed by H? After showing that standard replies are not satisfactory, I develop a suppositional analysis of conditional degree of belief, transferring Ramsey’s classical proposal to statistical inference. The analysis saves the alignment, explains the role of chance-credence coordination, and rebuts the charge of arbitrary assessment of evidence in Bayesian inference. Finally, I explore the implications of this analysis for Bayesian (...)
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  7. added 2019-01-05
    Imprecise Probability and the Measurement of Keynes's "Weight of Arguments".William Peden - 2018 - IfCoLog Journal of Logics and Their Applications 5 (4):677-708.
    Many philosophers argue that Keynes’s concept of the “weight of arguments” is an important aspect of argument appraisal. The weight of an argument is the quantity of relevant evidence cited in the premises. However, this dimension of argumentation does not have a received method for formalisation. Kyburg has suggested a measure of weight that uses the degree of imprecision in his system of “Evidential Probability” to quantify weight. I develop and defend this approach to measuring weight. I illustrate the usefulness (...)
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  8. added 2018-07-09
    Multiple Regression Is Not Multiple Regressions: The Meaning of Multiple Regression and the Non-Problem of Collinearity.Michael B. Morrissey & Graeme D. Ruxton - 2018 - Philosophy, Theory, and Practice in Biology 10 (3).
    Simple regression (regression analysis with a single explanatory variable), and multiple regression (regression models with multiple explanatory variables), typically correspond to very different biological questions. The former use regression lines to describe univariate associations. The latter describe the partial, or direct, effects of multiple variables, conditioned on one another. We suspect that the superficial similarity of simple and multiple regression leads to confusion in their interpretation. A clear understanding of these methods is essential, as they underlie a large range of (...)
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  9. added 2018-06-01
    A Merton Model of Credit Risk with Jumps.Hoang Thi Phuong Thao & Quan-Hoang Vuong - 2015 - Journal of Statistics Applications and Probability Letters 2 (2):97-103.
    In this note, we consider a Merton model for default risk, where the firm’s value is driven by a Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process.
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  10. added 2018-05-22
    Derivation of the Cramer-Rao Bound.Ryan Reece - manuscript
    I give a pedagogical derivation of the Cramer-Rao Bound, which gives a lower bound on the variance of estimators used in statistical point estimation, commonly used to give numerical estimates of the systematic uncertainties in a measurement.
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  11. added 2017-12-23
    Legal Burdens of Proof and Statistical Evidence.Georgi Gardiner - forthcoming - In James Chase & David Coady (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Applied Epistemology. Routledge.
    In order to perform certain actions – such as incarcerating a person or revoking parental rights – the state must establish certain facts to a particular standard of proof. These standards – such as preponderance of evidence and beyond reasonable doubt – are often interpreted as likelihoods or epistemic confidences. Many theorists construe them numerically; beyond reasonable doubt, for example, is often construed as 90 to 95% confidence in the guilt of the defendant. -/- A family of influential cases suggests (...)
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  12. added 2017-12-03
    Evidence Amalgamation, Plausibility, and Cancer Research.Marta Bertolaso & Fabio Sterpetti - 2019 - Synthese 196 (8):3279-3317.
    Cancer research is experiencing ‘paradigm instability’, since there are two rival theories of carcinogenesis which confront themselves, namely the somatic mutation theory and the tissue organization field theory. Despite this theoretical uncertainty, a huge quantity of data is available thanks to the improvement of genome sequencing techniques. Some authors think that the development of new statistical tools will be able to overcome the lack of a shared theoretical perspective on cancer by amalgamating as many data as possible. We think instead (...)
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  13. added 2016-10-13
    The Undetectable Difference: An Experimental Look at the ‘Problem’ of P-Values.William M. Goodman - 2010 - Statistical Literacy Website/Papers: Www.Statlit.Org/Pdf/2010GoodmanASA.Pdf.
    In the face of continuing assumptions by many scientists and journal editors that p-values provide a gold standard for inference, counter warnings are published periodically. But the core problem is not with p-values, per se. A finding that “p-value is less than α” could merely signal that a critical value has been exceeded. The question is why, when estimating a parameter, we provide a range (a confidence interval), but when testing a hypothesis about a parameter (e.g. µ = x) we (...)
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  14. added 2016-08-08
    Hypothesis Testing, “Dutch Book” Arguments, and Risk.Daniel Malinsky - 2015 - Philosophy of Science 82 (5):917-929.
    “Dutch Book” arguments and references to gambling theorems are typical in the debate between Bayesians and scientists committed to “classical” statistical methods. These arguments have rarely convinced non-Bayesian scientists to abandon certain conventional practices, partially because many scientists feel that gambling theorems have little relevance to their research activities. In other words, scientists “don’t bet.” This article examines one attempt, by Schervish, Seidenfeld, and Kadane, to progress beyond such apparent stalemates by connecting “Dutch Book”–type mathematical results with principles actually endorsed (...)
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  15. added 2016-04-19
    The Psychology of The Two Envelope Problem.J. S. Markovitch - manuscript
    This article concerns the psychology of the paradoxical Two Envelope Problem. The goal is to find instructive variants of the envelope switching problem that are capable of clear-cut resolution, while still retaining paradoxical features. By relocating the original problem into different contexts involving commutes and playing cards the reader is presented with a succession of resolved paradoxes that reduce the confusion arising from the parent paradox. The goal is to reduce confusion by understanding how we sometimes misread mathematical statements; or, (...)
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  16. added 2015-11-03
    Philosophy as Conceptual Engineering: Inductive Logic in Rudolf Carnap's Scientific Philosophy.Christopher F. French - 2015 - Dissertation, University of British Columbia
    My dissertation explores the ways in which Rudolf Carnap sought to make philosophy scientific by further developing recent interpretive efforts to explain Carnap’s mature philosophical work as a form of engineering. It does this by looking in detail at his philosophical practice in his most sustained mature project, his work on pure and applied inductive logic. I, first, specify the sort of engineering Carnap is engaged in as involving an engineering design problem and then draw out the complications of design (...)
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  17. added 2015-09-17
    Compte rendu de « Desrosières, Alain (2014), Prouver et gouverner. Une analyse politique des statistiques publiques ». [REVIEW]Marc-Kevin Daoust - 2014 - Science Ouverte 1:1-7.
    Prouver et gouverner étudie le rôle des institutions, des conventions et des enjeux normatifs dans la construction d’indicateurs quantitatifs. Desrosières pense qu’on ne peut étudier le développement scientifique des statistiques sans prendre en compte le développement institutionnel – en particulier le rôle de l’État – dans la constitution de cette discipline.
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  18. added 2015-01-14
    A Frequentist Solution to Lindley & Phillips’ Stopping Rule Problem in Ecological Realm.Adam P. Kubiak - 2014 - Zagadnienia Naukoznawstwa 50 (200):135-145.
    In this paper I provide a frequentist philosophical-methodological solution for the stopping rule problem presented by Lindley & Phillips in 1976, which is settled in the ecological realm of testing koalas’ sex ratio. I deliver criteria for discerning a stopping rule, an evidence and a model that are epistemically more appropriate for testing the hypothesis of the case studied, by appealing to physical notion of probability and by analyzing the content of possible formulations of evidence, assumptions of models and meaning (...)
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  19. added 2012-06-07
    Bayes's Theorem. [REVIEW]Massimo Pigliucci - 2005 - Quarterly Review of Biology 80 (1):93-95.
    About a British Academy collection of papers on Bayes' famous theorem.
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