Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles

In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 25-95 (2014)
Download Edit this record How to cite View on PhilPapers
Abstract
Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The authors show that adjacent 2–4 medium cycles form the system the important characteristic of which is the dynamics of economic trend. The latter can be upswing (active) or downswing (depressive). The mechanisms of formation of such medium-term trends and changing tendencies are explained. The presence of such clusters of medium cycles (general duration of which is 20–30 years) determines to a large degree the long-wave dynamics and the characteristics of its timing. Thus, not medium-term J-cycles depend on the character of K-wave phase as Kondratieff supposed, but the character of the cluster of J-cycles determines significantly the character of K-wave phases.
Categories
(categorize this paper)
PhilPapers/Archive ID
GRIIBK
Upload history
Archival date: 2018-05-29
View other versions
Added to PP index
2018-05-29

Total views
312 ( #16,353 of 54,677 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
32 ( #22,604 of 54,677 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.