A New Bayesian Solution to the Paradox of the Ravens

Philosophy of Science 81 (1):81-100 (2014)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

The canonical Bayesian solution to the ravens paradox faces a problem: it entails that black non-ravens disconfirm the hypothesis that all ravens are black. I provide a new solution that avoids this problem. On my solution, black ravens confirm that all ravens are black, while non-black non-ravens and black non-ravens are neutral. My approach is grounded in certain relations of epistemic dependence, which, in turn, are grounded in the fact that the kind raven is more natural than the kind black. The solution applies to any generalization “All F’s are G” in which F is more natural than G.

Author's Profile

Susanna Rinard
Harvard University

Analytics

Added to PP
2013-09-13

Downloads
2,569 (#1,705)

6 months
235 (#2,094)

Historical graph of downloads since first upload
This graph includes both downloads from PhilArchive and clicks on external links on PhilPapers.
How can I increase my downloads?