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Single-case probabilities and the case of Monty Hall: Levy’s view

Synthese 162 (2):265-273 (2008)

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Philosophical Theories of Probability.Donald A. Gillies - 2000 - New York: Routledge.details The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. _Philosophical Theories of Probability_ is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory. Download Export citation Bookmark 186 citations
Let's make a deal.Terence Horgan - 1995 - Philosophical Papers 24 (3):209-222.details Download Export citation Bookmark 9 citations
Probability in rational decision-making.Paul K. Moser & D. Hudson Mulder - 1994 - Philosophical Papers 23 (2):109-128.details Download Export citation Bookmark 8 citations
Baumann on the Monty Hall Problem and Single-Case Probabilities.Ken Levy - 2007 - Synthese 158 (1):139-151.details Peter Baumann uses the Monty Hall game to demonstrate that probabilities cannot be meaningfully applied to individual games. Baumann draws from this first conclusion a second: in a single game, it is not necessarily rational to switch from the door that I have initially chosen to the door that Monty Hall did not open. After challenging Baumann's particular arguments for these conclusions, I argue that there is a deeper problem with his position: it rests on the false assumption that what (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 5 citations
Three Doors, Two Players, and Single-Case Probabilities.Peter Baumann - 2005 - American Philosophical Quarterly 42 (1):71 - 79.details The well known Monty Hall-problem has a clear solution if one deals with a long enough series of individual games. However, the situation is different if one switches to probabilities in a single case. This paper presents an argument for Monty Hall situations with two players (not just one, as is usual). It leads to a quite general conclusion: One cannot apply probabilistic considerations (for or against any of the strategies) to isolated single cases. If one does that, one cannot (...) Download Export citation Bookmark 10 citations

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