Applies and extends the conclusions of the preceding chapters by examining cases of self‐deception of a puzzling sort emerging from cases of fantasizing and imagining, found in Joyce's Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man and Flaubert's Madame Bovary. The author is particularly interested in what can be described as the ‘divided mind of self‐deception’, the mind that produces an imagination due to its realising the state of the world that motivates the fantasy construct and the possessor's eventual acquisition (...) of the belief that the fantasy construct represents reality accurately. In the process of deceiving oneself, he holds, no clear line can be drawn between imaginative activities that are not yet self‐deceptive and those that are. (shrink)

On the orthodox view in economics, interpersonal comparisons of utility are not empirically meaningful, and "hence" impossible. To reassess this view, this paper draws on the parallels between the problem of interpersonal comparisons of utility and the problem of translation of linguistic meaning, as explored by Quine. I discuss several cases of what the empirical evidence for interpersonal comparisonsof utility might be and show that, even on the strongest of these, interpersonal comparisons are empirically underdetermined and, if we also deny (...) any appropriate truth of the matter, indeterminate. However, the underdetermination can be broken non-arbitrarily (though not purely empirically) if (i) we assign normative significance to certain states of affairs or (ii) we posit a fixed connection between certain empirically observable proxies and utility. I conclude that, even if interpersonal comparisons are not empirically meaningful, they are not in principle impossible. (shrink)

For a long while Bayesian techniques in statistics in general, and decision theory in particular, were considered suspect at best, and to be avoided; but now along comes Jeffrey with a system of subjective probability and utility functions determined by the individual's preferences, and a strongly Bayesian approach to decision-making, and by so doing puts the whole matter in a new light and makes it quite important to reassess the prior rejection of Bayesian methods. There are twelve chapters, each with (...) exercises, which begin with the model of deliberation, progress though scaling and ranking desirability, preference and propositional attitudes, thence to probability and measurement of desirability, and finally to induction and confirmation. The author's theory bears some resemblances to that sketched by Ramsey, but it draws somewhat on the later work of Von Neumann and Morgenstern. The author examines probability as viewed both statically—when the agent's attitudes are constant—and dynamically-when desirability and, consequently, probability assignments change. This text is one of the small but growing library of works whose interest is induction and probability theory; in that library, it will occupy an important place.—P. J. M. (shrink)

Foundations of Bayesianism is an authoritative collection of papers addressing the key challenges that face the Bayesian interpretation of probability today. Some of these papers seek to clarify the relationships between Bayesian, causal and logical reasoning. Others consider the application of Bayesianism to artificial intelligence, decision theory, statistics and the philosophy of science and mathematics. The volume includes important criticisms of Bayesian reasoning and also gives an insight into some of the points of disagreement amongst advocates of the Bayesian approach. (...) The upshot is a plethora of new problems and directions for Bayesians to pursue.The book will be of interest to graduate students or researchers who wish to learn more about Bayesianism than can be provided by introductory textbooks to the subject. Those involved with the applications of Bayesian reasoning will find essential discussion on the validity of Bayesianism and its limits, while philosophers and others interested in pure reasoning will find new ideas on normativity and the logic of belief. (shrink)

The author believes the attitude of the interpreter plays a crucial role in the theory of meaning. ‘Expressing Evaluation’ extends this strategy to evaluative judgements: just as the questions of belief and meaning are entwined, so are belief, meaning, and evaluation, where evaluating includes attitudes such as desires. This does not conflict with Davidson's claim that interpretation is a holistic act, in the sense that an interpreter weighs the attitudes of a subject against each other so as to render them (...) intelligible or rational by the interpreter's standards. Justifies the thesis that desire is the most basic attitude in this interpretive process and that understanding presumes a shared body of evaluations as well as desires. (shrink)