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  1. (1 other version)Interpretations of probability.Alan Hájek - 2007 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
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  • A refutation of the doomsday argument.Kevin B. Korb & Jonathan J. Oliver - 1998 - Mind 107 (426):403-410.
    Carter and Leslie's Doomsday Argument maintains that reflection upon the number of humans born thus far, when that number is viewed as having been uniformly randomly selected from amongst all humans, past, present and future, leads to a dramatic rise in the probability of an early end to the human experiment. We examine the Bayesian structure of the Argument and find that the drama is largely due to its oversimplification.
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  • A Shooting-Room View of Doomsday.William Eckhardt - 1997 - Journal of Philosophy 94 (5):244.
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  • An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument – Gott's Line and Leslie's Wedge.E. Sober - 2003 - Synthese 135 (3):415-430.
    I discuss two versions of the doomsday argument. According to ``Gott's Line'',the fact that the human race has existed for 200,000 years licences the predictionthat it will last between 5100 and 7.8 million more years. According to ``Leslie'sWedge'', the fact that I currently exist is evidence that increases the plausibilityof the hypothesis that the human race will come to an end sooner rather than later.Both arguments rest on substantive assumptions about the sampling process thatunderlies our observations. These sampling assumptions have (...)
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  • Time and the anthropic principle.John Leslie - 1992 - Mind 101 (403):521-540.
    Carter’s anthropic principle reminds us that intelligent life can find itself only in life-permitting times, places or universes. The principle concerns a possible observational selection effect, not a designing deity. It has no special concern with humans, nor does it say that intelligent life is inevitable and common. Barrow and Tipler, who discuss all this, are not biologically ignorant. As argued in "Universes" (Leslie, 1989) they may well be right in thinking that "fine tuning" of force strengths and particle masses, (...)
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  • Do doomsday's proponents think we were born yesterday?Timothy Chambers - 2001 - Philosophy 76 (3):443-450.
    In a recent article, John Leslie has defended the intriguing Carter-Leslie ‘Doomsday Argument’ (Philosophy, January 2000). I argue that an essential presupposition of the argument—that ‘the case of one's name coming out of [an] urn is sufficiently similar to the case of being born into the world’—engenders, in turn, a parallel ‘Ussherian Corollary’. The dubiousness of this Corollary, coupled with independent considerations, casts doubt upon the Carter-Leslie presupposition, and hence, dooms the Doomsday argument.
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  • Doom and probabilities.John Leslie - 1993 - Mind 102 (407):489-491.
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  • The Demise of the Doomsday Argument.George F. Sowers Jr - 2002 - Mind 111 (441):37-46.
    A refutation of the doomsday argument is offered. Through a simple thought experiment analysed in Bayesian terms the fallacy is shown to be the assumption that a currently living person represents a random sample from the population of all persons who will ever have existed. A more general version of the counter argument is then given. Previous arguments that purport to answer this concern are also addressed. One result is determining criteria for the applicability of time sampling arguments, i.e., under (...)
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  • Une Solution pour l’Argument de l’Apocalypse.Paul Franceschi - 1998 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 28 (2):227 - 246.
    Attribué à Brandon Carter, l' argument de l'Apocalypse Doomsday Argument , soit DA, dans ce qui suit) a été décrit par John Leslie (1992). On peut formuler ainsi cet argument. Soit A l'événement: l'Apocalypse se produira avant l'an 2150 ; et B l'événement: l'Apocalypse ne se produira pas avant 2150 . Soit également Z l'événement: j'ai connu les années 1990 . On peut par ailleurs estimer à 40 milliards le nombre d'humains ayant existé depuis la naissance de l'humanité, jusqu'à notre (...)
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  • Comment l'Urne de Carter et Leslie se Déverse dans celle de Hempel.Paul Franceschi - 1999 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 29 (1):139-156.
    Le philosophe mit le pied sur la première marche du futurotron. C'était la première fois qu'il utilisait cet appareil pour ses recherches. Bien qu'il vienne seulement d'être mis au point et qu'il ne soit encore qu'à l'état de prototype, ce futurotron pouvait décidément rendre de grands services. De nombreux chercheurs de différentes disciplines l'avaient d'ailleurs déjà utilisé de manière très fructueuse. Le philosophe prit place aux côtés du pilote sur le siège avant de la machine. - Quel est le principe (...)
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  • Probability theory and the doomsday argument.William Eckhardt - 1993 - Mind 102 (407):483-488.
    John Leslie has published an argument that our own birth rank among all who have lived can be used to make inferences about all who will ever live, and hence about the expected survival time for the human race. It is found to be shorter than usually supposed. The assumptions underpinning the argument are criticized, especially the unwarranted one that the argument's sampling is equiprobable from among all who ever live. A mathematical derivation shows that Leslie's argument is correct only (...)
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  • The End of the World.John Leslie - 2000 - Mind 109 (433):155-158.
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