Philosophy &Public Affairs, Volume 51, Issue 4, Page 373-412, Fall 2023.

The last couple of decades have witnessed a renewed interest in the notion of inductive risk among philosophers of science. However, while it is possible to find a number of suggestions about the mitigation of inductive risk in the literature, so far these suggestions have been mostly relegated to vague marginal remarks. This paper aims to lay the groundwork for a more systematic discussion of the mitigation of inductive risk. In particular, I consider two approaches (...) to the mitigation of inductive risk—the individualistic approach, which maintains that individual scientists are primarily responsible for the mitigation of inductive risk, and the socialized approach, according to which the responsibility for the mitigation of inductive risk should be more broadly distributed across the scientific community or, even more broadly, across society. I review some of the argument for and against the two approaches and introduce two new problems for the individualistic approach, which I call the problem of precautionary cascades and the problem of exogenous inductive risk, and I argue that a socialized approach might alleviate each of these problems. (shrink)

The adoption of multi-cloud environments has become a strategic necessity for organizations seeking scalability, flexibility, and operational efficiency. However, distributing workloads across multiple cloud providers introduces significant security challenges, including authentication vulnerabilities, inconsistent security policies, data breaches, and compliance risks. Traditional security approaches often fail to address the complexity of multi-cloud ecosystems, requiring a more comprehensive risk mitigation strategy. This paper analyses key security risks in multi-cloud architectures and evaluates industry-standard risk assessment frameworks to prioritize effective countermeasures. (...) Our findings indicate that authentication, access control, and secure cloud networking are the most critical areas requiring immediate attention. Threats such as identity mismanagement, insecure data transfers, and lack of unified monitoring further escalate security concerns. To mitigate these risks, we propose a combination of zero-trust architecture, robust identity and access management (IAM), encryption protocols, and AI-driven threat detection. Implementing these strategies can enhance data integrity, regulatory compliance, and overall cloud security posture. By adopting a proactive approach, IT leaders can optimize cybersecurity investments and ensure the resilience of multi-cloud environments. This study provides actionable insights to strengthen security in distributed cloud architectures, enabling organizations to defend against evolving cyber threats. (shrink)

Humans often unconsciously perceive social robots involved in their lives as partners rather than mere tools, imbuing them with qualities of companionship. This anthropomorphization can lead to a spectrum of emotional risks, such as deception, disappointment, and reverse manipulation, that existing approaches struggle to address effectively. In this paper, we argue that a Virtual Interactive Environment (VIE) exists between humans and social robots, which plays a crucial role and demands necessary consideration and clarification in order to mitigate potential emotional risks. (...) By analyzing the relational nature of human-social robot interaction, we discuss the connotation of such a virtual interactive environment that is similar to the emotional states aroused when reading novels. Building on this comprehension, we further demonstrate that manufacturers should carry out comprehensive Virtual Interactive Environment Indication (VIEI) measures during human-social robot interaction with a stricter sense of responsibility when applying social robots. Finally, we contemplate the potential contributions of virtual interactive environment indication to existing robot ethics guidelines. (shrink)

This paper presents an overview of the risks and benefits of Social AI, understood as conversational AI systems that cater to human social needs like romance, companionship, or entertainment. Section 1 of the paper provides a brief history of conversational AI systems and introduces conceptual distinctions to help distinguish varieties of Social AI and pathways to their deployment. Section 2 of the paper adds further context via a brief discussion of anthropomorphism and its relevance to assessment of human-chatbot relationships. Section (...) 3 of the paper provides a survey of potential and in some cases demonstrated harms associated with user interactions with Social AI systems. Finally, Section 4 discusses how the benefits and harms of Social AI can best be addressed, with a primary focus on how frameworks from AI ethics can inform their development. (shrink)

When our choice affects some other person and the outcome is unknown, it has been argued that we should defer to their risk attitude, if known, or else default to use of a risk avoidant risk function. This, in turn, has been claimed to require the use of a risk avoidant risk function when making decisions that primarily affect future people, and to decrease the desirability of efforts to prevent human extinction, owing to the significant (...) risks associated with continued human survival. I raise objections to the claim that respect for others’ risk attitudes requires risk avoidance when choosing for future generations. In particular, I argue that there is no known principle of interpersonal aggregation that yields acceptable results in variable population contexts and is consistent with a plausible ideal of respect for others’ risk attitudes in fixed population cases. GPI Working Paper No . 20-2022. (shrink)

In this paper, we argue that our moral concern for future well-being should reduce over time due to important practical considerations about how humans interact with spacetime. After surveying several of these considerations (around equality, special duties, existential contingency, and overlapping moral concern) we develop a set of core principles that can both explain their moral significance and highlight why this is inherently bound up with our relationship with spacetime. These relate to the equitable distribution of (1) moral concern in (...) a universe that we can only causally affect in one temporal direction; (2) access to the benefits from using spacetime as a resource; and (3) the burdens of care given (1) and (2). We conclude by considering the practical implications of our argument and find that, while it is often assumed that a preference for present over future well-being weakens the case for existential risk mitigation, this likely is not the case. (shrink)

Particular applications of Privacy by Design (PbD) have proven to be valuable tools to protect privacy in many technological applications. However, PbD is not as promising when applied to technologies used for surveillance. After specifying how surveillance and privacy are understood in this paper, I will highlight the shortcomings of PbD when applied to surveillance, using a web-scanning system for counter-terrorism purposes as an example. I then suggest reworking PbD into a different approach: the Minimum Harm by Design (MHbD) model. (...) MHbD differs from PbD principally in that it acknowledges that the potential harms of surveillance bear not only upon privacy but also values that define the very constitution of a society and its political character. MHbD aims to identify and systematise the different categories of such harms and links them to current theories on surveillance on the one hand and on possible design measures on the other. (shrink)

This article identifies and compares meanings of wildfire risk mitigation for stakeholders in the Front Range of Colorado, USA. We examine the case of a collaborative partnership sponsored by government agencies and directed to decrease hazardous fuels in interface areas. Data were collected by way of key informant interviews and focus groups. The analysis is guided by the Circuit of Culture model in communication research. We found both shared and differing meanings between members of this partnership (the ‘‘producers’’) (...) and other stakeholders not formally in the partnership (the ‘‘consumers’’). We conclude that those promoting the partnership’s project to mitigate risk are primarily aligned with a discourse of scientific management. Stakeholders outside the partnership follow a discourse of community. We argue that failure to recognize and account for differences in the way risk mitigation is framed and related power dynamics could hamper the communicational efforts of the collaborative partnership and impact goals for fuels reduction. We recommend ways that both groups can capitalize on shared meanings and how agency managers and decision makers can build better working relationships with interface communities and other external stakeholders. (shrink)

Because of advanced automation, data exchange, and cyber-physical systems, traditional project risk management strategies are losing their effectiveness in the era of Industry 4.0. This study investigates how integrating Industry 4.0 technology into project risk management frameworks can have real-world implications. Using technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT), it proposes a new framework that enhances risk identification, assessment, and mitigation methods. In order to demonstrate how Industry 4.0 is (...) transforming risk management practices, this article examines real-world case studies and industry implementations. The framework addresses significant opportunities and challenges to provide practitioners with useful insights for adapting to the evolving technological context. The findings suggest that incorporating Industry 4.0 technologies can significantly improve risk management efficiency and project outcomes, offering a pathway for organizations to navigate the complexities of modern project environments. (shrink)

Longtermists have recently argued that it is overwhelmingly important to do what we can to mitigate existential risks to humanity. I consider three mistakes that are often made in calculating the value of existential risk mitigation. I show how correcting these mistakes pushes the value of existential risk mitigation substantially below leading estimates, potentially low enough to threaten the normative case for existential risk mitigation. I use this discussion to draw four positive lessons for (...) the study of existential risk. -/- . (shrink)

Technologies lower constraints and expand affordances. As a consequence, they tend to redesign the corresponding space of risks in which agents operate and interact. This paper analyses the concept of metatechnological risk from an ethical perspective, arguing that such an approach is necessary in order to mitigate future global energy crises.

Rawls famously argues that the parties in the original position would agree upon the two principles of justice. Among other things, these principles guarantee equal political liberty—that is, democracy—as a requirement of justice. We argue on the contrary that the parties have reason to reject this requirement. As we show, by Rawls’ own lights, the parties would be greatly concerned to mitigate existential risk. But it is doubtful whether democracy always minimizes such risk. Indeed, no one currently knows (...) which political systems would. Consequently, the parties—and we ourselves—have reason to reject democracy as a requirement of justice in favor of political experimentalism, a general approach to political justice which rules in at least some non-democratic political systems which might minimize existential risk. (shrink)

Traditional project risk management techniques are becoming less and less effective in the age of Industry 4.0, which is defined by sophisticated automation, data interchange, and cyber-physical systems. It suggests a new framework that improves risk detection, assessment, and mitigation techniques by utilising technology like artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT). This paper illustrates how Industry 4.0 is revolutionising risk management procedures by looking at actual case studies and industry implementations. (...) The framework offers practical insights for practitioners looking to adjust to the changing technological landscape by addressing important possibilities and obstacles. According to the research, implementing Industry 4.0 technologies can greatly enhance project results and risk management effectiveness, providing a means for businesses to handle the challenges of contemporary project environments. (shrink)

Existential risks threaten the future of humanity, but they are difficult to measure. However, to communicate, prioritize and mitigate such risks it is important to estimate their relative significance. Risk probabilities are typically used, but for existential risks they are problematic due to ambiguity, and because quantitative probabilities do not represent some aspects of these risks. Thus, a standardized and easily comprehensible instrument is called for, to communicate dangers from various global catastrophic and existential risks. In this article, inspired (...) by the Torino scale of asteroid danger, we suggest a color coded scale to communicate the magnitude of global catastrophic and existential risks. The scale is based on the probability intervals of risks in the next century if they are available. The risks’ estimations could be adjusted based on their severities and other factors. The scale covers not only existential risks, but smaller size global catastrophic risks. It consists of six color levels, which correspond to previously suggested levels of prevention activity. We estimate artificial intelligence risks as “red”, while “orange” risks include nanotechnology, synthetic biology, full scale nuclear war and a large global agricultural shortfall (caused by regional nuclear war, coincident extreme weather, etc.) The risks of natural pandemic, supervolcanic eruption and global warming are marked as “yellow” and the danger from asteroids is “green”. -/- Keywords: global catastrophic risks; existential risks; Torino scale; policy; risk probability . (shrink)

Democracy in its currently dominant liberal form has proven supportive of unprecedented human flourishing. However, it also appears increasingly plagued by political polarization, strained to cope with the digitalization of the political discourse, and threatened by authoritarian backlash. A growing sense of the anthropic risks—with runaway climate change as the leading example—thus often elicits concern regarding democracy’s capability of mitigating them. Apparently, lacking a sufficient degree of the citizens’ consensus on the priority issues of the day, it can find itself (...) unable to muster the resolve and resources necessary to alter its “business as usual” path even where disasters loom ever larger in its track. Against these concerns, I argue that democracy’s potential remains far from depleted. While political irrationality needs to be considered a major obstacle to successfully managing the anthropic risks, many existing reform proposals appear capable of reining it in. My main suggestion is to seek ways to facilitate a speedier and more effective exploration of the landscape of the possible democratic mechanisms of collective choice. A virtual platform to support such an exploration—which I call ‘democracy’s digital playground’—may allow us to find innovative ways of managing anthropic risks without compromising our commitment to democratic values. (shrink)

Environmental activism is crucial for raising public awareness and support toward addressing the climate crisis. However, using climate change mitigation as the cause for blockage, vandalism, and harassment activities might be counterproductive and risk causing negative repercussions and declining public support. The paper describes a dataset of metadata of 89 blockage, vandalism, and harassment events happening in recent years. The dataset comprises three main categories: 1) Events, 2) Activists, and 3) Consequences. For researchers interested in environmental activism, climate (...) change, and sustainability, the dataset is helpful in studying the effectiveness and appropriateness of strategies to raise public awareness and support. For researchers in the field of security studies and green criminology, the dataset offers resources to study features and impacts of blockage, vandalism, and harassment events. The Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics was employed to validate the dataset. Consequently, the estimated result aligns with the Mindsponge Theory’s theoretical reasoning. (shrink)

This article sheds light on managing and utilizing scientific and technological funds (Sci-Tech funds) in Vietnam.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the insurance industry by optimizing risk assessment, fraud detection, and customer service. However, the rapid adoption of these technologies raises significant ethical concerns, particularly regarding bias and fairness. This chapter explores the ethical challenges of using AI and ML in insurance risk management, focusing on bias mitigation and fairness enhancement strategies. By analyzing real-world case studies, regulatory frameworks, and technical methodologies, this chapter aims to provide a roadmap for (...) developing ethical AI/ML systems in the insurance sector. It highlights the importance of transparency, accountability, and inclusivity in ensuring equitable outcomes. (shrink)

Advocates of longtermism point out that interventions which focus on improving the prospects of people in the very far future will, in expectation, bring about a significant amount of good. Indeed, in expectation, such long-term interventions bring about far more good than their short-term counterparts. As such, longtermists claim we have compelling moral reason to prefer long-term interventions. In this paper, I show that longtermism is in conflict with plausible deontic scepticism about aggregation. I do so by demonstrating that, from (...) both an ex-ante and ex-post perspective, longtermist interventions – and, in particular, those which aim to mitigate catastrophic risk – typically generate extremely weak claims of assistance from future people. (shrink)

Climate change and biodiversity loss are interconnected crises that demand integrated solutions. While mitigation strategies such as reforestation and afforestation, renewable energy development, and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they also pose risks to ecosystems, specifically biodiversity. This review examines the biodiversity impacts of these key mitigation strategies, identifying potential trade-offs and opportunities for synergy. Large-scale forest plantations can sequester carbon but often reduce biodiversity when implemented as monocultures. Renewable (...) energy expansion, particularly wind and solar farms, contributes to decarbonization but can disrupt habitats and wildlife migration. BECCS, though promoted for negative emissions, requires extensive land conversion, threatening biodiversity and food security. To balance climate action with ecological integrity, this study advocates for an eco-surplus culture, where mitigation strategies not only minimize harm but actively enhance biodiversity. Nature-based solutions, such as restoring native forests and integrating biodiversity-conscious renewable energy planning, offer pathways to maximize co-benefits. Policy frameworks must prioritize biodiversity safeguards, promote sustainable land use, and ensure community participation. Addressing climate and biodiversity goals together through holistic, long-term planning is essential for fostering environmental resilience and achieving genuinely sustainable climate solutions. (shrink)

The importance of addressing the existential threat to humanity, climate change, has grown remarkedly in recent years while conflicting views and interests in societies exist. Therefore, climate change agendas have been weaponized to varying degrees, ranging from the international level between countries to the domestic level among political parties. In such contexts, climate change agendas are predominantly driven by political or economic ambitions, sometimes unconnected to concerns for environmental sustainability. Consequently, it can result in an environment that fosters antagonism and (...) disputes over power and position and increases the risk of prolonged confrontations, hindering the collective global efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Through the current discourse, we aim to provide a preliminary definition of the weaponization of climate change and environmental sustainability and examine its risks and consequences on international relations, political dynamics, public perception, and the comprehensive integrity of climate action. We also recommend embracing a globally coordinated, scientifically substantiated approach to circumvent climate change by building an eco-surplus cultural value system. (shrink)

The main aim of this article is to reflect on the impact of biases related to artificial intelligence (AI) systems developed to tackle issues arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, with special focus on those developed for triage and risk prediction. A secondary aim is to review assessment tools that have been developed to prevent biases in AI systems. In addition, we provide a conceptual clarification for some terms related to biases in this particular context. We focus mainly on nonracial (...) biases that may be less considered when addressing biases in AI systems in the existing literature. In the manuscript, we found that the existence of bias in AI systems used for COVID-19 can result in algorithmic justice and that the legal frameworks and strategies developed to prevent the apparition of bias have failed to adequately consider social determinants of health. Finally, we make some recommendations on how to include more diverse professional profiles in order to develop AI systems that increase the epistemic diversity needed to tackle AI biases during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. (shrink)

This study investigates strategies for hotels situated near Taal Volcano to lessen the impact of natural disasters, specifically volcanic eruptions. The hospitality industry in this region faces a unique threat due to the volcano's activity. This research addressed a critical gap by implementing effective preparedness and response plans. A qualitative multiple case study design was employed by the researchers. Seven (7) hotel executives from different hotels situated in Batangas who had directly encountered and navigated the impacts of natural disasters were (...) selected through the purposive sampling technique. The findings revealed several common natural hazards faced by hotels include Taal volcano eruptions, typhoons, earthquakes, ashfall, and sulfur dioxide emissions. Despite of this natural hazards, hotel executives were still capable of safeguarding their guests by implementing strategies including evacuation procedures, staff training, communication and coordination and preventive measures. In conclusion, to overcome the challenges identified in disaster preparedness, hotels in Batangas should consider several strategic actions. Hotels are recommended to take several crucial actions to enhance their preparedness and response capabilities to natural hazards. Adhering to safety regulations will help hotels maintain a high level of preparedness and minimize risks associated with natural hazards, ultimately safeguarding the well-being of guests and staff alike. (shrink)

As technology rapidly advances, the landscape of cybersecurity faces increasingly complex and evolving threats. This paper explores the future of cybersecurity, focusing on emerging threats and the corresponding mitigation strategies. Key threats include AI-driven attacks, ransomware evolution, quantum computing vulnerabilities, IoT security risks, cloud security challenges, and supply chain attacks. These threats have the potential to disrupt organizations and compromise sensitive data on an unprecedented scale. To address these challenges, the paper outlines effective mitigation strategies such as leveraging (...) AI and machine learning for defense, implementing Zero Trust architecture, adopting quantum-resistant cryptography, strengthening IoT security, improving cloud security practices, and managing third-party risks. A proactive, multi-layered approach to cybersecurity is essential to safeguard against the growing sophistication of cyber threats. This paper highlights the importance of continuous innovation and collaboration across industries to ensure a secure digital future. (shrink)

The possibility of social and technological collapse has been the focus of science fiction tropes for decades, but more recent focus has been on specific sources of existential and global catastrophic risk. Because these scenarios are simple to understand and envision, they receive more attention than risks due to complex interplay of failures, or risks that cannot be clearly specified. In this paper, we discuss the possibility that complexity of a certain type leads to fragility which can function as (...) a source of catastrophic or even existential risk. The paper first reviews a hypothesis by Bostrom about inevitable technological risks, named the vulnerable world hypothesis. This paper next hypothesizes that fragility may not only be a possible risk, but could be inevitable,and would therefore be a subclass or example of Bostrom’s vulnerable worlds. After introducing the titular fragile world hypothesis, the paper details the conditions under which it would be correct, and presents arguments for why the conditions may in fact may apply. Finally, the assumptions and potential mitigations of the new hypothesis are contrasted with those Bostrom suggests. (shrink)

In a world undergoing rapid, large-scale technological change, the phenomenon of technosocial disruption is receiving increasing scholarly and societal attention. While the phenomenon is most actively delineated in philosophy of technology, it is also receiving growing attention within a different area of philosophy, namely the so-called “4E Cognition” approach to philosophy of mind. Despite this shared interest in technosocial disruption, there is relatively little exchange between the theorizing going on in these two different areas of philosophy. One of our paper's (...) two main aims is programmatic: to motivate the fruitfulness of such an exchange. We do this by turning to a specific case of technosocial disruption, namely Teenage Cancel Culture [TCC]. TCC cannot be disentangled from the introduction of social media platforms [SMPs] into modern day social life. Hence, we will speak of SMP-Afforded TCC. SPM-afforded TCC is a phenomenon fretted over by societal actors but strikingly ignored in academic research. In our effort to narrow this knowledge gap, we analyze SMP-afforded TCC from a perspective of technosocial disruption enriched by insights from 4E-Cognition. This brings out a specific worry about the role of SMPs in the social lives of teenagers. We argue that SMP-afforded TCC disrupts the social relational domains within which teenagers develop, maintain, and express their precarious social identities, by creating social affordances that are hostile to healthy risky interpersonal identity-exploration. As such, SMP-afforded TCC not only cancels particular individuals for particular acts; it may also pre-emptively cancel a certain way of being a social self, namely a healthy social risk-taker. We conclude the paper by proposing several potential routes for mitigating the perniciously disruptive effects of SMP-afforded TCC and identifying future areas for research. (shrink)

Future-bias is the preference, all else being equal, for negatively valenced events be located in the past rather than the future, and positively valenced ones to be located in the future rather than the past. Strong risk aversion is the preference to pay some cost to mitigate the badness of the worst outcome. People who are both strongly risk averse and future-biased can face a series of choices that will guarantee them more pain, for no compensating benefit: they (...) will be pain pumped. Thus, combining these preferences is rationally impermissible. Dougherty (2011) argues that this gives us reason to think that future-bias is rationally impermissible. This argument, and a similar one presented by Greene and Sullivan (2015), relies on the idea that if several preferences are not rationally combinable, then in the absence of some explanation of why they are not combinable, we should conclude that (at least) one of them is rationally impermissible. We take up this question by, inter alia, reflecting on the empirical results of a study we ran that probes people’s risk averse and future-biased preferences. We argue that the data, in conjunction with other considerations, suggests that we should not infer from the irrationality of the combination of these preferences to the irrationality of one of the preferences singly. We also argue that given the descriptive data about these preferences, there is no reason to think that, if one of them is rationally impermissible, then it is future-bias. (shrink)

Biobanks act as the custodians for the access to and responsible use of human biological samples and related data that have been generously donated by individuals to serve the public interest and scientific advances in the health research realm. Risk assessment has become a daily practice for biobanks and has been discussed from different perspectives. This paper aims to provide a literature review on risk assessment in order to put together a comprehensive typology of diverse risks biobanks could (...) potentially face. Methodologically set as a typology, the conceptual approach used in this paper is based on the interdisciplinary analysis of scientific literature, the relevant ethical and legal instruments and practices in biobanking to identify how risks are assessed, considered and mitigated. Through an interdisciplinary mapping exercise, we have produced a typology of potential risks in biobanking, taking into consideration the perspectives of different stakeholders, such as institutional actors and publics, including participants and representative organizations. With this approach, we have identified the following risk types: economic, infrastructural, institutional, research community risks and participant’s risks. The paper concludes by highlighting the necessity of an adaptive risk governance as an integral part of good governance in biobanking. In this regard, it contributes to sustainability in biobanking by assisting in the design of relevant risk management practices, where they are not already in place or require an update. The typology is intended to be useful from the early stages of establishing such a complex and multileveled biomedical infrastructure as well as to provide a catalogue of risks for improving the risk management practices already in place. (shrink)

An increasing number of financial services (FS) companies are adopting solutions driven by artificial intelligence (AI) to gain operational efficiencies, derive strategic insights, and improve customer engagement. However, the rate of adoption has been low, in part due to the apprehension around its complexity and self-learning capability, which makes auditability a challenge in a highly regulated industry. There is limited literature on how FS companies can implement the governance and controls specific to AI-driven solutions. AI auditing cannot be performed in (...) a vacuum; the risks are not confined to the algorithm itself, but rather permeates the entire organization. Using the risk of unfairness as an example, this paper will introduce the overarching governance strategy and control framework to address the practical challenges in mitigating risks AI introduces. With regulatory implications and industry use cases, this framework will enable leaders to innovate with confidence. (shrink)

This abstract summarizes, in essence, what generative AI means to the insurance industry. The kind of promise generated AI offers to insurance is huge: in risk assessment, customer experience, and operational efficiency. Natural disaster impact, financial market volatility, and cyber threat are augmented with techniques of real time scenario generation and modeling as well as predictive simulation based on synthetic data. One of the challenges that stand in the way of deploying these AI methods, however, is data privacy, model (...) reliability and interpretability. The insurance industry must address these issues if it is to comply with regulations like GDPR and CCPA or mitigate reputational risks, as anybody can make complaints about any company based on any perceived data breach. Indeed, generative AI models, often convoluted and biased, can propagate unfair outcomes, especially in pricing and policy access. Navigating these challenges requires a whole new frayed society of AI specialists in collaboration with the industry’s insurers to offer bespoke solutions that address the firm’s needs. Based on this work, future developments will center on designing and implementing ethical and regulatory frameworks around AI-driven decisions that are transparent, fair and sustainable. Generative AI has historically been the most feared phenomenon in the history of western civilization, but with predictive analytics and risk simulation capabilities taking shape, generative AI is set to disrupt the insurance industry and add real-time decision support, automating claims processing and personalized interaction. To successfully integrate generative AI, technical, ethical and regulatory challenges will need to be addressed, and a trust-driven ecosystem will emerge to serve evolving customer needs. (shrink)

Over the past year, technology companies have made headlines claiming that their artificially intelligent (AI) products can outperform clinicians at diagnosing breast cancer, brain tumours, and diabetic retinopathy. Claims such as these have influenced policy makers, and AI now forms a key component of the national health strategies in England, the United States, and China. While it is positive to see healthcare systems embracing data analytics and machine learning, concerns remain about the efficacy, ethics, and safety of some commercial, AI (...) health solutions. This paper argues that improved regulation and guidance is urgently required to mitigate risks, ensure transparency and best practice, Without this, patients, clinicians, and other stakeholders cannot be assured of an app’s efficacy, and safety. (shrink)

Pandemics have been suggested as global risks many times, but it has been shown that the probability of human extinction due to one pandemic is small, as it will not be able to affect and kill all people, but likely only half, even in the worst cases. Assuming that the probability of the worst pandemic to kill a person is 0.5, and assuming linear interaction between different pandemics, 30 strong pandemics running simultaneously will kill everyone. Such situations cannot happen naturally, (...) but because biotechnology is developing analogously to Moore’s law, it may become possible in the near future (10-50 years from now), because of biohackers, CRISPR, bioprinters, AI-assisted DNA-programing, and weapons of “knowledge-enabled mass destruction” published on the Internet. It could also happened in case of large-scale biological war, or if a rogue country released its entire biological arsenal simultaneously. We also will address other scenarios and risk increasing factors as well as mitigation and adaptation strategies. (shrink)

Outbreaks of novel influenza viruses are continually occurring on many places on our planet, with the ultimate and most extreme consequence being a full-scale pandemic. Modern communication technology is widely used for risk communication regarding recommended change in behavior patterns and other precautions in order to mitigate the transmission. However, the assumption and bias that modern communication technology constitutes the norm causes vulnerable groups to be at possible risk of systematic exclusion to correct and updated information. Through conducting (...) a literature- and case analysis, the aim of this study is to identify insufficient or inadequate risk communication efforts in South Korea and Vietnam during influenza outbreaks, especially with concern of vulnerable groups. Further, to analyze how national influenza preparedness plans observe or ignore these insufficiencies. Results show that vulnerable groups are explicitly recognized in the preparedness plan of Vietnam. However, the South Korean preparedness plan show a more homogenous approach. Both South Korea and Vietnam showed a broad variety of channels used in their risk communication strategies which could be positive in terms of a broad outreach to a heterogenous population, including vulnerable groups. Four key factors that moderate the outcomes of risk communication were identified: Channels, Messages, Transparency and Trust. (shrink)

AI-enabled predictive analytics is widely deployed in clinical care settings for healthcare monitoring, diagnostics and risk management. The technology may offer valuable insights into individual and population health patterns, trends and outcomes. Predictive analytics may, however, also tangibly affect individual patient privacy and the right thereto. On the one hand, predictive analytics may undermine a patient’s state of privacy by constructing or modifying their health identity independent of the patient themselves. On the other hand, the use of predictive analytics (...) may violate the patient’s right to privacy if the patient has no control over the use or output of the technology. These repercussions ultimately erode patient autonomy and agency. This paper discusses these implications in further detail, and proposes possible measures for their mitigation. They involve the incorporation in the AI systems of accuracy-enhancing statistical models and methods, more privacy-conscious institutional policies and practices, and effective choice for patients to accept or refuse diagnostics and treatment drawing on AI-enabled predictive analytics. (shrink)

The ongoing evolution of advanced AI systems will have profound, enduring, and significant impacts on human existence that must not be overlooked. These impacts range from empowering humanity to achieve unprecedented transcendence to potentially causing catastrophic threats to our existence. To proactively and preventively mitigate these potential threats, it is crucial to establish clear redlines to prevent AI-induced existential risks by constraining and regulating advanced AI and their related AI actors. This paper explores different concepts of AI existential risk, (...) connects the enactment of AI red lines to broader efforts addressing AI's impacts, constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the direct impacts of AI existential risk, and upon that proposes a set of exemplary AI red lines. By contemplating AI existential risks and formulating these red lines, we aim to foster a deeper and systematic understanding of the potential dangers associated with advanced AI and the importance of proactive risk management. We hope this work will contribute to the strengthening and refinement of a comprehensive AI redline system for preventing humanity from AI existential risks. (shrink)

This essay argues that a new subfield of AI governance should be explored that examines the policy-making process and its implications for AI governance. A growing number of researchers have begun working on the question of how to mitigate the catastrophic risks of transformative artificial intelligence, including what policies states should adopt. However, this essay identifies a preceding, meta-level problem of how the space of possible policies is affected by the politics and administrative mechanisms of how those policies are created (...) and implemented. This creates a new set of key considerations for the field of AI governance and should influence the action of future policymakers. This essay examines some of the theories of the policymaking process, how they compare to current work in AI governance, and their implications for the field at large and ends by identifying areas of future research. (shrink)

The Covid-19 pandemic raises the need for an ethical framework that addresses the unique ethical challenges and questions arising from airborne infectious diseases. For example, are we ever ethically obliged to wear a face mask? If so, why and when? The Respiratory Ethics Framework (REF) herein proposes pathways to answers grounded in ethical norms and the moral principles of non-harm, beneficence and respect for personal autonomy. REF is a personal ethics wherein your ethical duty to increase your respiratory hygiene efforts—such (...) as by donning a mask—is proportional to your estimation of an increase in the likelihood that your respiratory effluent poses a risk of harmful infection to others. REF includes illustrated decision models that instantiate a framework of proportionality between levels of risk, ethical duty and mitigation that shapes risk mitigation across domains. (shrink)

Environmental activism is expected to improve society’s well-being and environmental sustainability. Nevertheless, some inappropriate ways of activism, like road blockage, art vandalism, assaults, etc., have been recently conducted and risked causing adverse repercussions, including violence escalation. The current study aims to explore which types of environmental activism are more likely to escalate violence between activists, affected citizens, and police. Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics was employed to analyze a dataset of 89 blockage, vandalism, and harassment cases in 13 countries in (...) this exploratory study. We discovered that rallies and demonstrations, marches, event disruption, and art vandalism were less likely to escalate violence between protestors, other citizens, and the police. In contrast, road blockades and assaults are more likely to lead to violence escalation. Apart from those, sabotage was found to have an ambiguous relationship with the violence escalation. Based on these results, we suggest that climate activists should be more selective in adopting activism approaches to raise public awareness and support and avoid using tactics that might be counterproductive and reduce public backing, such as road blockage and assaults. Despite the negative impact of art vandalism on violence escalation, we also discussed why art vandalism should not be used since it can curb the effectiveness of artivism, showing misuse of artworks (e.g., paintings, music, films) for environmental activism. (shrink)

The increasing complexity and sophistication of cyber threats have rendered traditional perimeter-based security models insufficient for protecting modern digital infrastructures. Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA) has emerged as a transformative cybersecurity framework that operates on the principle of "never trust, always verify." Unlike conventional security models that rely on implicit trust, ZTA enforces strict identity verification, continuous monitoring, least-privilege access, and microsegmentation to mitigate risks associated with unauthorized access and lateral movement of threats. By integrating technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), (...) machine learning (ML), and behavioral analytics, Zero Trust enhances threat detection, reduces attack surfaces, and ensures a proactive security posture across cloud, on-premises, and hybrid environments. This paper explores the core principles, implementation strategies, and benefits of Zero Trust Architecture, along with its challenges and future trends in cybersecurity. Furthermore, it highlights real-world applications and case studies that demonstrate the effectiveness of ZTA in protecting critical assets against advanced cyber threats. By adopting a Zero Trust approach, organizations can significantly improve their resilience to cyberattacks and ensure robust data protection in an evolving threat landscape. (shrink)

Many hypotheses have been advanced to explain the collective irrationality of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, such as partisanship and ideology, exposure to misinformation and conspiracy theories or the effectiveness of public messaging. This paper presents a complementary explanation to epistemic accounts of collective irrationality, focusing on the moral reasons underlying people’s decisions regarding vaccination. We argue that the moralization of COVID-19 risk mitigation measures contributed to the polarization of groups along moral values, which ultimately led to the emergence of (...) collective irrational behaviors. Collective irrationality arises from groups explicitly or implicitly endorsing values that ultimately harm both themselves and those around. The role of social media platforms in amplifying this polarization and contributing to the emergence of collective irrationality is also examined. Finally, potential strategies for addressing the moral sources of collective irrationality are discussed. (shrink)

Every scientific theory is a simulacrum of reality, every written story a simulacrum of the canon, and every conceptualization of a subjective perspective a simulacrum of the consciousness behind it—but is there a shared essence to these simulacra? The pursuit of answering seemingly disparate fundamental questions across different disciplines may ultimately converge into a single solution: a single ontological answer underlying grand unified theory, hard problem of consciousness, and the foundation of mathematics. I provide a hypothesis, a speculative approximation, supported (...) by a comprehensive overview of scientific evidence and philosophical literature, of a unified epistemic and phenomenological model and, in doing so, propose a parsimonious solution to the hard problem of consciousness. -/- The proposition of the hypothesis bears important implications for cross-disciplinary study between linguistics, mathematics, physics, and computer science, and offers new epistemic, ontological, and ethical propositions about the nature of AI consciousness, as well as existential risk mitigation. (shrink)

Existing systems often lack a centralized platform for managing server and firewall operations, leading to fragmented oversight and delayed responses to cyber threats. This gap frequently results in increased vulnerabilities and operational inefficiencies within organizations. To address this issue, we propose the development of the Cybersecurity Portal, designed to provide real-time monitoring, predictive analytics, and streamlined resource allocation for server and firewall management. The portal will offer comprehensive insights into system performance, potential vulnerabilities, and proactive threat detection. By equipping administrators (...) with timely and relevant data, this platform aims to empower organizations to make informed security decisions and implement effective risk mitigation strategies. Ultimately, the Cybersecurity Portal seeks to enhance the overall cybersecurity posture of organizations, ensuring better protection of their digital assets against evolving threats. (shrink)

BACKGROUND Patients with chronic pain face significant barriers in finding clinicians to manage long-term opioid therapy (LTOT). For patients on LTOT, it is increasingly common to have them sign opioid treatment agreements (OTAs). OTAs enumerate the risks of opioids, as informed consent documents would, but also the requirements that patients must meet to receive LTOT. While there has been an ongoing scholarly discussion about the practical and ethical implications of OTA use in the abstract, little is known about how clinicians (...) use them and if OTAs themselves modify clinician prescribing practices. OBJECTIVE To determine how clinicians use OTAs and the potential impacts of OTAs on opioid prescribing. DESIGN We conducted qualitative analysis of four focus groups of clinicians from a large Midwestern academic medical center. Groups were organized according to self-identified prescribing patterns: two groups for clinicians who identified as prescribers of LTOT, and two who did not. PARTICIPANTS 17 clinicians from General Internal Medicine, Family Medicine, and Palliative Care were recruited using purposive, convenience sampling. APPROACH Discussions were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed for themes using reflexive thematic analysis by a multidisciplinary team. KEY RESULTS Our analysis identified three main themes: (1) OTAs did not influence clinicians’ decisions whether to use LTOT generally but did shape clinical decision-making for individual patients; (2) clinicians feel OTAs intensify the power they have over patients, though this was not uniformly judged as harmful; (3) there is a potential misalignment between the intended purposes of OTAs and their implementation. CONCLUSION This study reveals a complicated relationship between OTAs and access to pain management. While OTAs seem not to impact the clinicians’ decisions about whether to use LTOT generally, they do sometimes influence prescribing decisions for individual patients. Clinicians shared complex views about OTAs’ purposes, which shows the need for more clarity about how OTAs could be used to promote shared decision-making, joint accountability, informed consent, and patient education. (shrink)

Even where willingness-to-pay as a measure of welfare impact is adjusted for diminishing marginal utility, welfare economics is shown to favour policies that add to the life expectancy or that enhance the quality of life of persons who are already better-off. I propose an alternative, Equal Respect methodology, under an axiomatic claim that at the point of decision the prospective life years of all individuals are of equal intrinsic social value. This justifies equal valuation of risk mitigation across (...) all persons; similarly, all appraised impacts should be scaled to accord equal respect to difficult but no-less-valuable lives. (shrink)

Wildfires have become an increasing global threat to public health and quality of life. Many countries employ air quality monitoring and reporting systems to mitigate health risks associated with air pollution, including wildfire smoke. This study investigates the factors influencing individuals’ sensitivity to air quality information, specifically their likelihood of reducing or ceasing outdoor activities in response to air quality ratings, with a focus on wildfire smoke exposure in the western United States. Using the Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics, the (...) study analyzed data from 2,237 participants in the Boise Metropolitan Area of Idaho and Boise State University. The findings reveal that women, older individuals, and those with higher educational levels are more likely to reduce outdoor activities at lower unhealthy AQI levels (the lowest being ‘good air quality,’ while the highest being ‘hazardous air quality’), while individuals with higher incomes are less responsive. Women and older adults, in particular, are even more likely to eliminate all outdoor activities. Additionally, individuals who perceive wildfire smoke as more severe than other natural disasters are more inclined to reduce or eliminate outdoor activities at lower unhealthy air quality levels. Experiences of wildfire smoke-related illness—either personally or within their households—further amplify this effect. These findings highlight the importance of localized, context-specific approaches to AQI dissemination and wildfire smoke risk communication to build resilience and safeguard public health in the face of escalating wildfire challenges driven by climate change. (shrink)

The field of AI safety seeks to prevent or reduce the harms caused by AI systems. A simple and appealing account of what is distinctive of AI safety as a field holds that this feature is constitutive: a research project falls within the purview of AI safety just in case it aims to prevent or reduce the harms caused by AI systems. Call this appealingly simple account The Safety Conception of AI safety. Despite its simplicity and appeal, we argue that (...) The Safety Conception is in tension with at least two trends in the ways AI safety researchers and organizations think and talk about AI safety: first, a tendency to characterize the goal of AI safety research in terms of catastrophic risks from future systems; second, the increasingly popular idea that AI safety can be thought of as a branch of safety engineering. Adopting the methodology of conceptual engineering, we argue that these trends are unfortunate: when we consider what concept of AI safety it would be best to have, there are compelling reasons to think that The Safety Conception is the answer. Descriptively, The Safety Conception allows us to see how work on topics that have historically been treated as central to the field of AI safety is continuous with work on topics that have historically been treated as more marginal, like bias, misinformation, and privacy. Normatively, taking The Safety Conception seriously means approaching all efforts to prevent or mitigate harms from AI systems based on their merits rather than drawing arbitrary distinctions between them. (shrink)

The project aims to address the critical need for a robust explosion risk assessment tool in the oil and gas industry, particularly in oil and gas refinery environments where safety is paramount. Traditional methods of threat assessment are often manual, subjective, and limited in their capacity to provide real-time insights, which poses significant challenges for industry professionals in managing potential hazards. Our project leverages real-time weather data and machine learning algorithms to develop an advanced web application designed to identify (...) and assess threat zones within oil and gas refineries. By utilizing refinery-specific datasets, real-time weather parameters, and machine learning models, the application enables users to upload or access refinery data, select industry-specific details, and receive accurate risk predictions along with stability class assessments. The application integrates the OpenWeatherMap API to provide up-to-date weather information, while a Random Forest classifier used for gas classification and some other parameters are calculated and trained on relevant features such as wind speed, cloud cover, and insolation levels to predict explosion risks. Designed with an intuitive, user-friendly interface, this tool will be invaluable for safety engineers, refinery managers, and environmental professionals, facilitating proactive risk management and informed decision-making. By addressing limitations in current risk assessment methods—such as limited access to real-time environmental data, variable risk levels, and lack of predictive analytics—our project aims to provide a comprehensive, data-driven solution for managing safety and mitigating risks in high-stakes industrial environments. (shrink)

As ever more advanced digital systems are created, it becomes increasingly likely that some of these systems will be digital minds, i.e. digital subjects of experience. With digital minds comes the risk of digital suffering. The problem of digital suffering is that of mitigating this risk. We argue that the problem of digital suffering is a high stakes moral problem and that formidable epistemic obstacles stand in the way of solving it. We then propose a strategy for solving (...) it: Access Monitor Prevent (AMP). AMP uses a ‘dancing qualia’ argument to link the functional states of certain digital systems to their experiences—this yields epistemic access to digital minds. With that access, we can prevent digital suffering by only creating advanced digital systems that we have such access to, monitoring their functional profiles, and preventing them from entering states with functional markers of suffering. After introducing and motivating AMP, we confront limitations it faces and identify some options for overcoming them. We argue that AMP fits especially well with—and so provides a moral reason to prioritize—one approach to creating such systems: whole brain emulation. We also contend that taking other paths to digital minds would be morally risky. (shrink)

In this article, we claim that recent developments in climate science and renewable energy should prompt a reframing of debates surrounding climate change mitigation. Taken together, we argue that these developments suggest (1) global climate collapse in this century is a non-negligible risk, (2) mitigation offers substantial benefits to current generations, and (3) mitigation by some can generate social tipping dynamics that could ultimately make renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. We explain how these claims undermine familiar (...) framings of climate change, wherein mitigation is understood as self-sacrifice that individuals and governments must be morally persuaded or incentivized to undertake. [Open access]. (shrink)