In this paper I provide a frequentist philosophical-methodological solution for the stopping rule problem presented by Lindley & Phillips in 1976, which is settled in the ecological realm of testing koalas’ sex ratio. I deliver criteria for discerning a stopping rule, an evidence and a model that are epistemically more appropriate for testing the hypothesis of the case studied, by appealing to physical notion of probability and by analyzing the content of possible formulations of evidence, assumptions of models and (...) meaning of the ecological hypothesis. First, I show the difference in the evidence taken into account in different frequentist sampling procedures presented in the problem. Next, I discuss the inapplicability of the Carnapian principle of total evidence in deciding which formulation of evidence associated with a given sampling procedure and statistical model is epistemically more appropriate for testing the hypothesis in question. Then I propose a double-perspective (evidence and model) frequentist solution based on the choice of evidence which better corresponds to the investigated ecological hypothesis, as well as on the choice of a model that embraces less unrealistic ontological assumptions. Finally, I discuss two perspectives of the stopping rule dependence. (shrink)

This is the text of The Lindley Lecture for 1987, given by John McDowell, a South African philosopher.

This paper generalises an argument for probabilism due to Lindley [9]. I extend the argument to a number of non-classical logical settings whose truth-values, seen here as ideal aims for belief, are in the set $\{0,1\}$, and where logical consequence $\models $ is given the “no-drop” characterization. First I will show that, in each of these settings, an agent’s credence can only avoid accuracy-domination if its canonical transform is a (possibly non-classical) probability function. In other words, if an agent (...) values accuracy as the fundamental epistemic virtue, it is a necessary requirement for rationality that her credence have some probabilistic structure. Then I show that for a certain class of reasonable measures of inaccuracy, having such a probabilistic structure is sufficient to avoid accuracy-domination in these non-classical settings. (shrink)

The budding notion of sustainability is analyzed using the notions of an interdisciplinary versus a multidisciplinary field by Lindley Darden and Nancy Maul.

This is the text of The Lindley Lecture for 1983, given by Hilary Putnam, an American philosopher.

One is occasionally reminded of Foucault's proclamation in a 1970 interview that "perhaps, one day this century will be known as Deleuzian." Less often is one compelled to update and restart with a supplementary counter-proclamation of the mathematician, David Lindley: "the twenty-first century would be a Bayesian era..." The verb tenses of both are conspicuous. // To critically attend to what is today often feared and demonized, but also revered, deployed, and commonly referred to as algorithm(s), one cannot avoid (...) the mathematical and philosophical legacies of probability. // But attending to these probabilistic or Bayesian legacies must include an undeniable theological legacy in which they remain entangled. // We are not, today, discovering quirky theological metaphors in contemporary technics. It's the other way around. The technologies are mere metaphors of past theologies. (shrink)

Truths will be defined as an agreement on uncertainties, the consensus over matters of empirical and social nature such as mathematics, physics or economics. As illustrated by Dennis Lindley , ‘individuals tend to know things to be true and false but the extent of this truth and falsity would always remain unknown’. Leading individuals to a permanent state of stress, uncertainty becomes a risk for the social community. Problems could not be presumed to be solvable as any kind of (...) solution would be perceived as uncertain. The struggle for solutions would develop into a state of insecurity and conflict where no individual could trust the answers given by any other member of the community. To prevent a ‘war of all against all’ that would cause anxiety and permanent conflict, it will become an essential duty for the social community to diminish uncertainty by imposing truths. With those, individuals can be reassured about the certainty of their knowledge and use truths as a resolution tool for any dispute that might occur within the social space. For the purpose of social peace, truths will therefore be every outcome of the process through which uncertainty is transformed into an agreed form of knowledge. “Gravity”, “Death” and “God” will all be considered truths as they represent a form of agreement over different domains of the human and social life. It is not the intention of this essay to examine each of the truths separately but rather, to analyse them all together in order to formulate a hypothesis for all empirical and social matters. (shrink)

This essay articulates a conception of responsibility and excuse in terms of the fair opportunity to avoid wrongdoing and explores its implications for insanity, incompetence, and psychopathy. The fair opportunity conception factors responsibility into conditions of normative competence and situational control and factors normative competence into cognitive and volitional capacities. This supports a conception of incompetence that recognizes substantial impairment of either cognitive or volitional capacities as excusing, provided the agent is not substantially responsible for her own incompetence. This conception (...) helps frame the question whether psychopathy is excusing. The most common rationale for excusing psychopathy appeals to claims about cognitive incompetence. However, there are good philosophical and empirical reasons to be skeptical that psychopaths lack the relevant cognitive capacities. There is more to be said for a volitional rationale for excuse. The crucial question here is whether the problems psychopaths have with impulse control and conforming their behavior to the relevant moral and criminal norms are systematic enough to demonstrate genuine volitional incompetence. The available empirical evidence should leave us skeptical about the merits of this volitional rationale for excuse. (shrink)