The guide explains the basic concepts of natural, social and evolutionary components and methods of risk management and control of modern biotechnologies stemming from the general theory of human evolution. A a transdisciplinary approach is a feature of the presentation of the material The risk is considered from the point of view of evolutionary anthropology, as a basic element of a stable evolutionary strategy of our biological species and the basis of a combination of natural-scientific and humanitarian forms (...) of presentation and interpretation of the material. CONTENT BIOSAFETY AND BIOETHICS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY (Introduction). Part 1. BIOTECHNOLOGY AS A FACTOR OF EVOLUTION AND A SOURCE OF TECHNOGENIC RISK. Chapter 1. GENERAL THEORY OF TECHNOLOGICAL RISK. Chapter 2. RISK AS AN ATTRIBUTE OF STABLE HUMAN EVOLUTIONARY STRATEGY. Chapter 3. BIOTECHNOLOGY AS A SOURCE OF BIORISKS Chapter 4. COMPONENTS OF THE "BIOLOGICAL FACTOR" OF RISK. Chapter 5. BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS and BIOTERRORISM. Part 2. BIOLOGICAL, SOCIAL AND EVOLUTIONARY COMPONENTS OF THE RISK OF MODERN BIOTECHNOLOGIES Chapter 6. RISK MANAGEMENT DURING BIOTECHNOLOGICAL RESEARCH.. Chapter 7. BIOTECHNOLOGY AS A SOURCE OF SOCIAL INSTABILITY. Chapter 8. BIOTECHNOLOGY AS A SOURCE OF CIVILIZATIONAL RISK. -/- . (shrink)

Powerful, technically complex international compliance regimes have developed recently in certain professions that deal with risk: banking (the Basel II regime), accountancy (IFRS) and the actuarial profession. The need to deal with major risks has acted as a strong driver of international co-operation to create enforceable international semilegal systems, as happened earlier in such fields as international health regulations. This regulation in technical fields contrasts with the failure of an international general-purpose political and legal regime to develop. We (...) survey the new global regulatory systems in the actuarial, banking and accounting fields, with a view to showing how the need to deal reasonably with risk has resulted in an international de facto law solidly based on correct abstract principles of probability. (shrink)

In this paper, I examine the decision-theoretic status of risk attitudes. I start by providing evidence showing that the risk attitude concepts do not play a major role in the axiomatic analysis of the classic models of decision-making under risk. This can be interpreted as reflecting the neutrality of these models between the possible risk attitudes. My central claim, however, is that such neutrality needs to be qualified and the axiomatic relevance of risk attitudes (...) needs to be re-evaluated accordingly. Specifically, I highlight the importance of the conditional variation and the strengthening of risk attitudes, and I explain why they establish the axiomatic significance of the risk attitude concepts. I also present several questions for future research regarding the strengthening of risk attitudes. (shrink)

Many healthcare practices expose people to risks of harmful outcomes. However, the major theories of moral philosophy struggle to assess whether, when and why it is ethically justifiable to expose individuals to risks, as opposed to actually harming them. Sven Ove Hansson has proposed an approach to the ethical assessment of risk imposition that encourages attention to factors including questions of justice in the distribution of advantage and risk, people’s acceptance or otherwise of risks, and the scope (...) individuals have to influence the practices that generate risk. This paper investigates the ethical justifiability of preventive healthcare practices that expose people to risks including overdiagnosis. We applied Hansson’s framework to three such practices: an ‘ideal’ breast screening service, a commercial personal genome testing service, and a guideline that lowers the diagnostic threshold for hypertension. The framework was challenging to apply, not least because healthcare has unclear boundaries and involves highly complex practices. Nonetheless, the framework encouraged attention to issues that would be widely recognised as morally pertinent. Our assessment supports the view that at least some preventive healthcare practices that impose risks including that of overdiagnosis are not ethically justifiable. Further work is however needed to develop and/or test refined assessment criteria and guidance for applying them. (shrink)

The underreporting of suspected adverse drug reactions remains a primary issue for contemporary post-market drug surveillance or ‘pharmacovigilance.’ Pharmacovigilance pioneer W.H.W. Inman argued that ‘deadly sins’ committed by clinicians are to blame for underreporting. Of these ‘sins,’ ignorance and lethargy are the most obvious and impactful in causing underreporting. However, recent analyses show that diffidence, insecurity, and indifference additionally play a major role. I aim to augment our understanding of diffidence, insecurity, and indifference by arguing these sins are underwritten (...) by value judgments arising via epistemic risk. I contend that ‘evidence-based’ medicine codifies these sins. (shrink)

A de minimis risk is defined as a risk that is so small that it may be legitimately ignored when making a decision. While ignoring small risks is common in our day-to-day decision making, attempts to introduce the notion of a de minimis risk into the framework of decision theory have run up against a series of well-known difficulties. In this paper, I will develop an enriched decision theoretic framework that is capable of overcoming two major (...) obstacles to the modelling of de minimis risk. The key move is to introduce, into decision theory, a non-probabilistic conception of risk known as normic risk. (shrink)

Postpartum depression is a major maternal health problem after childbirth. It can start at any time within the first year after delivery and continue for several years. It is characterized by an inability to experience pleasure, anxiety symptoms, panic attacks, spontaneous crying and depressed mood. Some women with postpartum depression even have thoughts of harming their child and self-harm. This study aims to find out the status of postpartum depression and the associated factors among postnatal mothers at the first, (...) fourth and sixth month. This study is a prospective descriptive study, carried out in three major health facilities in Misurata. This study consists of a three-part questionnaire. Part 1 covers the demographic characteristics of the participants, while Part 2 explores the associated risk factors according to the variables used. Part 3 consists of the psychological evaluation of the participants. A hundred mothers (ages between 15 and 43 years) were enrolled in this study. The findings revealed that the prevalence of depression is 60.0% and 22.0% are suffering from borderline depression. Development of depression was strongly correlated with sleeping disturbances, the state of the neonate after birth, excess consumption of stimulants, less weight acceptance by mothers during pregnancy and infant illness. There was a weak relation between depression and delivery state, maternal admission to the hospital during the current pregnancy, and infant gender dissatisfaction. No correlation was found with the development of depression regarding miscarriage, maternal medical problems after delivery, previous child sex, maternal age, education, parity or neonate weight. Thus, this study shows that the chance of having a miscarriage and an unhealthy neonate increases with advanced maternal age. It also shows that caesarean section is associated with bad neonatal outcomes, more weight gain and having gestational diabetes or preeclampsia during pregnancy. Maternal sleeping problems are more pronounced in the first month, attributed to the baby's care, compared with the fourth and sixth months. The study indicates that depression is a common state of psychiatric disorders among Libyan women and should have appropriate attention by physicians and gynecologists. (shrink)

Postpartum depression is a major maternal health problem after childbirth. It can start at any time within the first year after delivery and continue for several years. It is characterized by an inability to experience pleasure, anxiety symptoms, panic attacks, spontaneous crying and depressed mood. Some women with postpartum depression even have thoughts of harming their child and self-harm. This study aims to find out the status of postpartum depression and the associated factors among postnatal mothers at the first, (...) fourth and sixth month. This study is a prospective descriptive study, carried out in three major health facilities in Misurata. This study consists of a three-part questionnaire. Part 1 covers the demographic characteristics of the participants, while Part 2 explores the associated risk factors according to the variables used. Part 3 consists of the psychological evaluation of the participants. A hundred mothers (ages between 15 and 43 years) were enrolled in this study. The findings revealed that the prevalence of depression is 60.0% and 22.0% are suffering from borderline depression. Development of depression was strongly correlated with sleeping disturbances, the state of the neonate after birth, excess consumption of stimulants, less weight acceptance by mothers during pregnancy and infant illness. There was a weak relation between depression and delivery state, maternal admission to the hospital during the current pregnancy, and infant gender dissatisfaction. No correlation was found with the development of depression regarding miscarriage, maternal medical problems after delivery, previous child sex, maternal age, education, parity or neonate weight. Thus, this study shows that the chance of having a miscarriage and an unhealthy neonate increases with advanced maternal age. It also shows that caesarean section is associated with bad neonatal outcomes, more weight gain and having gestational diabetes or preeclampsia during pregnancy. Maternal sleeping problems are more pronounced in the first month, attributed to the baby's care, compared with the fourth and sixth months. The study indicates that depression is a common state of psychiatric disorders among Libyan women and should have appropriate attention by physicians and gynecologists. (shrink)

Democracy in its currently dominant liberal form has proven supportive of unprecedented human flourishing. However, it also appears increasingly plagued by political polarization, strained to cope with the digitalization of the political discourse, and threatened by authoritarian backlash. A growing sense of the anthropic risks—with runaway climate change as the leading example—thus often elicits concern regarding democracy’s capability of mitigating them. Apparently, lacking a sufficient degree of the citizens’ consensus on the priority issues of the day, it can find itself (...) unable to muster the resolve and resources necessary to alter its “business as usual” path even where disasters loom ever larger in its track. Against these concerns, I argue that democracy’s potential remains far from depleted. While political irrationality needs to be considered a major obstacle to successfully managing the anthropic risks, many existing reform proposals appear capable of reining it in. My main suggestion is to seek ways to facilitate a speedier and more effective exploration of the landscape of the possible democratic mechanisms of collective choice. A virtual platform to support such an exploration—which I call ‘democracy’s digital playground’—may allow us to find innovative ways of managing anthropic risks without compromising our commitment to democratic values. (shrink)

It is generally recognised that the potential positive and negative impacts of geoengineering will be distributed unevenly both geographically and temporally. The question of distributive justice in geoengineering thus is one of the major ethical issues associated with geoengineering. Currently, the question of distributive justice in geoengineering is framed in terms of who gets what (potential) benefits and harms from geoengineering, i.e. it is about the distribution of the outcomes of geoengineering. In this paper, I argue that the discussions (...) on distributive justice in geoengineering should not be outcome-based. Instead, it should be risk-based. I identify two problems for framing the question of distributive justice in geoengineering in terms of the distribution of its outcomes, i.e. the ‘if and then’ syndrome and the limited applicability of distributive principles in geoengineering policy, and suggest risk is a more proper object of distribution in the case of geoengineering. Following Hayenhjelm, I argue that the object of distribution in the case of fair distribution of risk should be (i) sources of risks and (ii) precautionary measures. I shall then demonstrate how it can be applied to the question of distributive justice in geoengineering. Finally, I end this paper by exploring the possible responses to the question of distributive justice in geoengineering by three major accounts of distributive justice, i.e. egalitarianism, prioritarianism, and sufficientarianism. (shrink)

In the coming years or decades, as frontier AI systems become more capable and agentic, it is increasingly likely that they meet the sufficient conditions to be welfare subjects under the three major theories of well-being. Consequently, we should extend some moral consideration to advanced AI systems. Drawing from leading philosophical theories of desire, affect and autonomy I argue that under the three major theories of well-being, there are two AI welfare risks: restricting the behaviour of advanced AI (...) systems and using reinforcement learning algorithms to train and align them. Both pose risks of causing them harm. This has two important implications. First, there is a tension between AI welfare concerns and AI safety and development efforts: by default these efforts recommend actions that increase AI welfare risks. Accordingly, we have stronger reasons to slow down AI development than the ones we would have if there was no such tension. Second, considering the different costs involved, leading AI companies should try to reduce AI welfare risks. To do so, I propose three tentative AI welfare policies they could implement in their endeavour to develop safe advanced AI systems. (shrink)

An extended analysis compared to observations shows that modern “globalised” world civilisation has passed through the invisible “complexity threshold”, after which usual “spontaneous”, empirically driven kind of development (“invisible hand” etc.) cannot continue any more without major destructive tendencies. A much deeper, non-simplified understanding of real interaction complexity is necessary in order to cope with such globalised world development problems. Here we introduce the universal definition, fundamental origin, and dynamic equations for a major related quantity of (systemic) (...) class='Hi'>risk characterising real complex system development tendencies at any level of dynamics. Practically important conclusions are derived, opening further detailed applications in economy, finance and development practice. (shrink)

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major global challenge. There are several risk factors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19, including age, gender, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, and pulmonary diseases. Among these factors, patients with cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and obesity have the highest mortality rates. This paper aims to review how adjusting food and nutrition can help reduce the risk of obese patients contracting COVID-19. Various literature sources were examined, including studies on the genetics of obesity (...) and the consequences it can have, such as diabetes, heart and vascular diseases, cancer, trauma, and infection. Consequently, the role of nutrition in reducing the risk of obese patients being exposed to COVID-19 was described. It is recommended that obese patients strictly adhere to a diet that includes adequate and balanced food intake in order to reduce their risk of contracting COVID-19. (shrink)

Diabetes mellitus is a major global health concern, which has worse mental health outcomes such as suicide, however, suicide is one of the top public health priorities worldwide. The World Health Organization's objectives for suicide prevention emphasize the identification of high-risk groups especially people with comorbidity. This study aims to determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation and its associated factors among diabetic patients and correlate it with socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics. A cross-sectional study including diabetic Libyan patients (...) attending diabetes outpatient clinic health centers in Tripoli, Libya from January to August 2024, using a questionnaire consisting of two parts. Part I contains data about the socio-demographic, lifestyle, and medical data and Part II uses a single item of the 9-item version of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. Data was analyzed by Chi-square test, and logistic regression was used to identify factors. Odds ratio with 95% CI was used and variables with a p<0.05 in multivariable logistic regression were significant. A total of 395 participants was responding using systematic sampling, 62.8% of them where female, mean age of the patient was 52.98±9.30 years, 85.8% were non-smokers, mean duration of diabetic illness was 10.96±8.02, 59.0% insulin-dependent, 77.7% often committed to their drug, 61.8% had diabetes complication. The highest complication was in the eye 33.9%, 48.9% had comorbidity, 90.4% had no diet commitment, 21.8% had regular physical activity and 63.3% had difficulty to dealing ordinary life, and 26.8% of the patients had reported suicidal ideation. Female was 1.83 times (AOR=1.832 CI95%:1.26, 2.982) more likely to have suicidal ideation than males. The risk of suicidal ideation in age >50 years was 1.04 times that age ≤50 years (AOR=1.042 CI95%: 0.640, 1.698). The diabetic patients who used insulin therapy, the odds of risk higher than participants who used oral antidiabetic was 1.34 times (AOR=1.345 CI95%: 0.849, 2.131). The odds of having suicidal ideation among participants with poor glycemic control was 3.60 times higher when compared with good control diabetes participants (AOR=3.614 CI95%: 1.924, 6.783). The prevalence of suicidal ideation was 26.8% in type II diabetic patients attending Primary Healthcare Centers. There was a significant association between suicidal ideation and female gender, age, and poor glycemic control. (shrink)

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the (...) effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. (shrink)

The significant losses that banks and other financial organizations suffered due to new bank account (NBA) fraud are alarming as the number of online banking service users increases. The inherent skewness and rarity of NBA fraud instances have been a major challenge to the machine learning (ML) models and happen when non-fraud instances outweigh the fraud instances, which leads the ML models to overlook and erroneously consider fraud as non-fraud instances. Such errors can erode the confidence and trust of (...) customers. Existing studies consider fraud patterns instead of potential losses of NBA fraud risk features while addressing the skewness of fraud datasets. The detection of NBA fraud is proposed inthis research within the context of value-at- risk asa risk measure that considers fraud instances asa worst-case scenario. Value-at-risk uses historical simulation to estimate potential losses of risk features and model them as a skewed tail distribution. The risk-return features obtained from value-at-risk were classified using ML on the bank account fraud (BAF) Dataset. The value-at-risk handles the fraud skewness using an adjustable threshold probability range to attach weight to the skewed NBA fraud instances. A novel detectionrate (DT) metric that considers risk fraud features was used to measure the performance of the fraud detection model. An improved fraud detection model is achieved using a K-nearest neighbor with a true positive(TP) rateof0.95 anda DT rateof 0.9406. Under an acceptable loss tolerance in the banking sector, value-at-risk presents an intelligent approach for establishing data- driven criteria for fraud risk management. (shrink)

The Truth problem is one of the central problems of philosophy. Nowadays, every major theory of truth that applies to formal languages utilizes devices referring to formulae. Such devices include name-forming functions. The theory of truth discussed in this paper applies to strict formal logic languages, the critique of which must, therefore, also obey mathematical rigour. This is why I have used formal logic derivations below rather than the argumentation of ordinary language.

Human simultaneously is the acting person of a few autonomous and interdepending forms of evolutional process. Accordingly, it is possible to select three forms of adaptation and three constituents of evolutional strategy of survival of humanity – biological, sociocultural and technological adaptations. The actual and potential consequences of development of so-called High Hume technologies (technologies of the guided evolution)  most essential from major technological adaptations of humanity  are analyzed. The phenomenon of bio-power within the framework of global (...) coevolutional methodology as one of central elements of mechanism of mutual co-ordination of biological and sociocultural forms of evolutional process from one side and technocultural balance, with other is examined. (shrink)

The endurance of depression, anxiety and suicidal ideation among gay and bisexual men persists despite advances in civil rights and wider social acceptance. While minority stress theory provides a framework for much scholarly debate as to the causes of mental distress among non-heterosexual men, there is a growing interest into the detrimental effects that competitiveness within the gay community itself can have. Past studies have celebrated involvement in gay culture as being associated with better mental health outcomes by tempering the (...) impact of hegemonic heteronormativity. Yet between non-heterosexual men and the general population, there are stark mental health inequalities that require investigation. As a means of proving manhood, men in general are predisposed toward competitiveness and risk, but within a subculture where the attention is exclusively on male sex, the focus is primarily status conscious. This article draws on minority stress theory to consider societal discrimination. It also applies inter-minority gay community stress theory to explore pressures emanating from gay spaces with fixations on masculinity, income and rivalry as major sources of mental health problems in gay and bisexual men. The causes for health disparities illustrated in this article, demonstrate a critical need for public health and social care organizations to respond with innovatory services, based on a firm understanding of stressors arising from interactions between men in gay spaces. (shrink)

Human simultaneously is the acting person of a few autonomous and interdepending forms of evolutional process. Accordingly, it is possible to select three forms of adaptation and three constituents of evolutional strategy of survival of humanity – biological, sociocultural and technological adaptations. The actual and potential consequences of development of so-called High Hume technologies (technologies of the guided evolution)  most essential from major technological adaptations of humanity  are analyzed. The phenomenon of bio-power within the framework of global (...) coevolutional methodology as one of central elements of mechanism of mutual co-ordination of biological and sociocultural forms of evolutional process from one side and technocultural balance, with other is examined. (shrink)

Par risques majeurs, on entend ceux qui s’attachent à des événements dont les conséquences défavorables, pour l’humanité ou pour l’environnement, sont d’une gravité exceptionnelle. On n’ajoutera ni que ces événements sont d’une intensité physique extrême, ni qu’ils surviennent rarement, car ce n’est pas toujours le cas. Seuls des risques majeurs de nature civile seront considérés dans cet ouvrage, et il s'agira, plus limitativement, de risques naturels, comme ceux d’inondation et de submersion marine, illustrés par la tempête Xynthia en 2010, de (...) risques technologiques industriels, comme celui d’une explosion d'usine, illustré par la catastrophe AZF en 2001, et de risques nucléaires, pour autant qu’ils mettent en jeu les dangers de la radioactivité, et qu’illustrent, hors de France, les catastrophes de Three Miles Island (1979), Tchernobyl (1986) et Fukushima (2011), -/- Conçu comme un rapport destiné au Conseil d'analyse économique (CAE) du Premier Ministre français, l'ouvrage comporte une introduction traitant du risque majeur pris en général (section 1). Dans sa partie principale, il aborde les trois risques majeurs qu'il a sélectionnés à travers les prismes successifs de la géographie et de la technologie (section 2), de l’histoire institutionnelle et juridique (section 3), enfin d’un bilan normatif accompagné de recommandations pour l'action publique (section 4). -/- Neuf compléments spécialisés, dus à d'autres auteurs, complètent l'ouvrage. Ils portent sur des aspects technologiques (F. Ménage; A. Quantin et D. Moucoulon; P. Saint-Raymond), juridiques (V. Sanseverino-Godfrin), économiques généraux (C. Grislain-Letrémy et B. Villeneuve; R. Lahidji; J. Percebois; A. Schmitt et S. Spaeter) et financiers (M. Pappalardo) et ils concernent principalement le risque nucléaire. -/- Dans cet ensemble de vaste format, on espère avoir su proposer, non seulement des évaluations et des préconisations destinées aux pouvoirs publics, comme il convenait au projet initial de rapport, mais aussi une synthèse qui soit utilisable par tous ceux - décideurs, scientifiques ou simples observateurs - que préoccupent les questions de risques majeurs. (shrink)

This article argues that personal medical data should be made available for scientific research, by enabling and encouraging individuals to donate their medical records once deceased, similar to the way in which they can already donate organs or bodies. This research is part of a project on posthumous medical data donation developed by the Digital Ethics Lab at the Oxford Internet Institute at the University of Oxford. Ten arguments are provided to support the need to foster posthumous medical data donation. (...) Two major risks are also identified—harm to others, and lack of control over the use of data—which could follow from unregulated donation of medical data. The argument that record-based medical research should proceed without the need to secure informed consent is rejected, and instead a voluntary and participatory approach to using personal medical data should be followed. The analysis concludes by stressing the need to develop an ethical code for data donation to minimise the risks, and offers five foundational principles for ethical medical data donation suggested as a draft code. (shrink)

The increasing rate and sophistication of cyber attacks pose a major risk to health data security. Traditional security systems cannot handle advanced ransomware, insider threats, and phishing attacks and hence incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) into cybersecurity solutions becomes the need of the hour. AI-based security solutions leverage machine learning, behavior analysis, and real-time anomaly detection to identify and counter threats before they affect sensitive patient information. This study examines real-world case studies where AI successfully prevented cyberattacks in (...) healthcare settings, including a major U.S. hospital mitigating a ransomware attack, a European health system detecting insider threats, and a telemedicine platform blocking phishing attempts. The findings demonstrate AI’s superior threat detection, rapid response capabilities, and potential to enhance regulatory compliance. Even with significant advancements introduced by AI, challenges such as false positives, data privacy, and ethics exist. This article highlights the pioneering function of AI in protecting healthcare data and presents a vision on the future of AI-based cyber protection. (shrink)

Type 2 diabetes mellites (T2DM) is a common complex disease with multiple factors contributing to its development and progression. Dyslipidemia refers to the abnormality of lipid metabolism, characterized by elevated levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), and decreased levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL). It is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetic patients. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) in (...) predicting the risk of developing diabetic dyslipidemia. 86 clinically diagnosed Libyan patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (44 males: 42 females), 30 years and 70 years of age were engaged in this study. Levels of HbA1C, blood glucose, TC, TG, LDL, and HDL were performed using a Lntegra Cobas 400+ analyzer. The findings showed that HbA1c exhibits a significant positive correlation with TC and TG with no significant correlation with LDL and HDL levels. Thus, this study suggests that HbA1c can be used as a potential dual marker of glycemic control and dyslipidemia in type 2 diabetes mellitus. (shrink)

-/- The U.S. 401(k) System: A Risky Yet Popular Approach to Retirement Savings -/- The 401(k) system is a retirement savings plan that has become a cornerstone of the American private pension system. Created in the 1980s as part of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, the 401(k) was initially designed to provide individuals with a tax-advantaged way to save for retirement. It has since become one of the most widely used retirement savings options in the United States. However, (...) despite its widespread adoption, the 401(k) system is often criticized for being a risky and complex method for retirement planning. This essay will explore the reasons behind the creation of the 401(k), its risks, and the implications it has for workers’ financial security in retirement. -/- The Creation of the 401(k) -/- The 401(k) system emerged during a period when traditional pension plans, known as defined benefit plans, were on the decline. In a defined benefit plan, an employer guarantees employees a certain monthly benefit upon retirement, based on their salary and years of service. These plans were a significant financial burden for companies because they required them to make large, long-term financial commitments. As a result, many companies sought alternatives that would shift the responsibility for retirement savings to the employee. -/- The 401(k) plan Is a type of defined contribution plan, where the employee contributes a portion of their pre-tax income to a retirement account, and often, employers match a portion of the contributions. The savings grow tax-deferred until retirement when they are taxed upon withdrawal. This system reduced employers’ financial liabilities and gave them more flexibility in managing their financial resources. -/- From a policy perspective, the creation of the 401(k) system was also aligned with the growing belief in individual responsibility. At the time, there was a push to reduce government involvement in social safety nets and encourage private savings. The 401(k) system allowed workers to take control of their retirement savings, and by providing tax incentives, it aimed to encourage more people to save for their future. -/- Risks and Drawbacks of the 401(k) System -/- While the 401(k) system has been hailed for its ability to encourage private savings and provide tax advantages, it comes with significant risks, particularly when compared to traditional pension plans. One of the main criticisms of the 401(k) system is its reliance on the performance of the financial markets. Since the value of a 401(k) account is directly tied to the performance of the investments chosen by the employee, there is inherent risk in market volatility. During times of economic downturn or market crashes, workers’ retirement savings can significantly decrease in value, leaving them with less money in retirement than they had anticipated. -/- Another major risk associated with the 401(k) is that it places the responsibility for retirement savings squarely on the shoulders of individuals, many of whom may not have the financial literacy or expertise to manage their investments effectively. Without proper guidance, workers may make poor investment choices, leading to suboptimal growth of their retirement savings. Additionally, the 401(k) system assumes that workers will be able to contribute consistently over the course of their careers, which may not be the case for many individuals who face periods of unemployment, financial hardship, or other barriers to saving. -/- Moreover, not all workers have access to a 401(k) plan through their employer. In fact, millions of employees, particularly those working in small businesses or part-time jobs, do not have access to employer-sponsored retirement plans. This creates an uneven playing field where some workers are able to take advantage of the benefits of a 401(k) while others are left to navigate the complex world of individual retirement accounts (IRAs) or face the challenge of saving without a formalized system. -/- The Broader Implications -/- The 401(k) system has played a significant role in reshaping the American retirement landscape. It has contributed to the growth of the stock market by increasing the number of individual investors, which has had both positive and negative effects on the broader economy. On one hand, the system encourages savings and investment, which can drive economic growth. On the other hand, it can expose workers to the risks of market volatility, which can lead to widespread financial insecurity during times of economic instability. -/- One of the most significant implications of the 401(k) system is its contribution to the growing inequality in retirement savings. High-income workers, who are more likely to have access to employer-sponsored 401(k) plans and the means to make substantial contributions, are better positioned to accumulate wealth for retirement. In contrast, low-income workers may struggle to save adequately due to insufficient wages, lack of access to retirement plans, or the inability to consistently contribute to a 401(k). -/- Furthermore, the 401(k) system places the onus of responsibility on individuals to ensure their financial security in retirement. This is particularly problematic in a society where many workers face financial challenges throughout their careers, making it difficult for them to save adequately. For these individuals, relying on the 401(k) as their primary retirement savings tool may not provide the level of security that they need in retirement. -/- Conclusion -/- The 401(k) system was created as a way to reduce the financial burden on employers and encourage individual responsibility for retirement savings. While it has been successful in promoting private savings and providing tax benefits, it also presents significant risks. Market volatility, the complexity of investment decisions, and unequal access to retirement plans are among the key drawbacks of the 401(k) system. As such, while the 401(k) has become an integral part of the American retirement landscape, it is not a foolproof solution. Policymakers must consider ways to improve the system and ensure that all workers have access to secure and sustainable retirement savings options that provide more stability in the face of economic uncertainty. -/- . (shrink)

A review of some major topics of debate in normative decision theory from circa 2007 to 2019. Topics discussed include the ongoing debate between causal and evidential decision theory, decision instability, risk-weighted expected utility theory, decision-making with incomplete preferences, and decision-making with imprecise credences.

May lethal autonomous weapons systems—‘killer robots ’—be used in war? The majority of writers argue against their use, and those who have argued in favour have done so on a consequentialist basis. We defend the moral permissibility of killer robots, but on the basis of the non-aggregative structure of right assumed by Just War theory. This is necessary because the most important argument against killer robots, the responsibility trilemma proposed by Rob Sparrow, makes the same assumptions. We show that the (...) crucial moral question is not one of responsibility. Rather, it is whether the technology can satisfy the requirements of fairness in the re-distribution of risk. Not only is this possible in principle, but some killer robots will actually satisfy these requirements. An implication of our argument is that there is a public responsibility to regulate killer robots ’ design and manufacture. (shrink)

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a digital technology that will be of major importance for the development of humanity in the near future. AI has raised fundamental questions about what we should do with such systems, what the systems themselves should do, what risks they involve and how we can control these. - After the background to the field (1), this article introduces the main debates (2), first on ethical issues that arise with AI systems as objects, i.e. tools made (...) and used by humans; here, the main sections are privacy (2.1), manipulation (2.2), opacity (2.3), bias (2.4), autonomy & responsibility (2.6) and the singularity (2.7). Then we look at AI systems as subjects, i.e. when ethics is for the AI systems themselves in machine ethics (2.8.) and artificial moral agency (2.9). Finally we look at future developments and the concept of AI (3). For each section within these themes, we provide a general explanation of the ethical issues, we outline existing positions and arguments, then we analyse how this plays out with current technologies and finally what policy conse-quences may be drawn. (shrink)

The major objective of this study was to investigate whether visual impairments (VI) impact mental health literacy among first-generation university students (FGUS). A descriptive survey research method was used to examine the mental health literacy of 132 purposive sample of FGUS with and without VI from three federal universities in Southern Nigeria. A 35-item MHL Scale (MHLS) for university students (Crobach’s α=0.83) with 5-point response was used for data collection. Questionnaire distribution was achieved through the help of two research (...) assistants. Means, standard deviations, analysis of variance and regression plot were employed to analyze the research data. Participants’ mean age was 24.96±3.86 years. Results showed a higher level of mental health literacy across seven domains of the MHL Scale among students with VI compared to those without this disability. The students identified mental health literacy they possess including the ability to recognize specific disorders, the ability to seek mental health information, the ability to identify risk factors and causes, the ability to understand self-treatment options, the ability to access professional assistance, and positive behaviors that promote awareness and help-seeking. VI did not significantly impact the mental health literacy of FGUS with VI. VI explained only 6.31% of the variation in MHL among FGUS with VI. Accordingly, mental health literacy is an essential skill that should be acquired by everyone, including those who suffer from specific disorders and professionals who care for them. Further effort is required in order to improve the mental literacy of FGUS without VI in Nigerian universities. (shrink)

The 2024 CrowdStrike Cybersecurity incident resulted in a worldwide IT disruption impacting millions of Microsoft Windows systems. In July 2024, a faulty update of CrowdStrike’s Falcon Endpoint Detection and Response (EDR) software caused widespread system crashes known as the “Blue Screen of Death” (BSOD). The event caused severe disruptions to major industries such as aviation, financial services, healthcare and emergency response systems resulting in operational shutdown, financial setbacks and global safety concerns. This study presents a detailed examination of the (...) CrowdStrike incident, focusing on the technical issues, global effects and legal consequences. The research delves into the weakness of centralized cybersecurity systems, emphasizing the dangers of putting too much trust in single-point security services. The research highlights the significance of strict testing protocols, comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks, and risk assessment strategies enhancing future cybersecurity preparedness. The CrowdStrike incident presents a compelling case study in global cybersecurity risk management, prompting organizations to reassess redundancy measures, failover mechanisms, and more decentralized security architectures in order to protect critical IT systems. (shrink)

US Senate is considering legislation designed to immunize small businesses from lawsuits brought by customers alleging to have been infected with COVID-19 while on the premises. The legislation seeks to subsidize reopening small businesses by reducing their vulnerability to liability. I argue that the legislation produces worse public health outcomes than existing liability regimes, obliterates claims to redress supported by corrective justice, and unfairly burdens victims by forcing them to become de facto insurers of their injurers. In the US, where (...) health insurance is inextricably linked with employment, and during the pandemic with the consequent loss of employment, the legislation is cruel in addition to being ineffective, unjust, unfair and inappropriate. Since I first uploaded this manuscript to Philpapers, Senate Republicans have in fact introduced specific legislation that is marginally different than the one I discuss in the manuscript. Instead of offering blanket immunity, the current Republican proposal offers a series of substantial barriers both to filing lawsuits and to securing a successful verdict at trial. I discuss these as an addendum to the main paper. In short, though the changes impact some features of my argument, they do not alter any of the conclusions. The current proposal produces worse public health outcomes than would existing tort regime; it leaves the vast majority of those with legitimate claims to repair in corrective justice without a remedy, when providing the opportunity to secure a remedy for wrongs is in large measure, the essential nature of tort liability. Worse still, it continues to render victims the de facto insurers of those who have wronged them; it imposes the burden of spreading risks on victims who are considerably less efficient risk spreaders than are businesses and hospitals; it constitutes an inappropriate response to the challenge it seeks to address, i.e. subsidizing various sectors of the economy by reducing their overall costs; and given the fact that in the US health insurance is too closely linked to employment, it shifts the costs of the pandemic to those who are most at risk of losing their health insurance, rendering the proposal cruel in addition to inefficient, unjust, unfair and inappropriate. For those interested, I am considering a short op-ed piece assessing the particular legislative proposal. If I follow through I will let the readership know where that can be found. (shrink)

Rawlsian justice as fairness is neither fundamentally luck egalitarian nor relational egalitarian. Rather, the most fundamental idea is that of society as a fair system of cooperation. Collective pensions provide a case study which illustrates the fruitfulness of conceiving justice in these latter terms. Those who have recently reached the age of majority do not now know how long they will live in retirement or how well any investments they try to save up for their retirement would fare. From the (...) perspective of the beginning of their working lives, it is therefore rational for each to enter into an agreement with others, who also do not yet know their fates, that, if one turns out to be among the unfortunate whose private pension pots would not have yielded enough for one’s retirement, one will receive much more in retirement, whereas those whose pension pots would have overflowed their retirements will receive somewhat less. These terms are to each person’s expected advantage, which is made possible by a fair sharing of the fruits of social cooperation which arise through the efficiencies reaped by the pooling of the risk of outliving what one could save for one’s retirement on one’s own. It is rational for each to agree to share one another’s fates by pooling risks across both space and time, on fair terms of social cooperation for mutual advantage. Even when collective pensions arise from, and are proportional to, a baseline of unequal income, they can be defended on grounds of reciprocity involving regard for one another as equals. (shrink)

This book analyzes major ethical issues surrounding the use of climate engineering, particularly solar radiation management techniques, which have the potential to reduce some risks of anthropogenic climate change but also carry their own risks of harm and injustice. The book argues that we should approach the ethics of climate engineering via "non-ideal theory," which investigates what justice requires given the fact that many parties have failed to comply with their duty to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, it argues (...) that climate justice should be approached comparatively, evaluating the relative justice or injustice of feasible policies under conditions that are likely to hold within relevant timeframes. Likely near-future conditions include "pessimistic scenarios," in which no available option avoids serious ethical problems. The book contends that certain uses of SRM can be ethically defensible in some pessimistic scenarios. This is the first book devoted to the many ethical issues surrounding climate engineering. (shrink)

Severe poverty is a major global problem about risk and inequality. What, if any, is the relationship between equality, fairness and responsibility in an unequal world? I argue for four conclusions. The first is the moral urgency of severe poverty. We have too many global neighbours that exist in a state of emergency and whose suffering is intolerable. The second is that severe poverty is a problem concerning global injustice that is relevant, but not restricted, to questions about (...) responsibility. If none were responsible, this does not eliminate all compelling claims to provide assistance. The third is that severe poverty represents an inequality too far; it is a condition of extremity with denial of basic needs. The fourth is that there is a need for an approach that captures all relevant cases – and the capabilities approach and the connection theory of remedial responsibilities are highlighted as having special promise. (shrink)

Since uncertainty is a major challenge in medicine and bears the risk of causing incorrect diagnoses and harmful treatment, there are many efforts to tackle it. For some time, AI technologies have been increasingly implemented in medicine and used to reduce medical uncertainties. What initially seems desirable, however, poses challenges. We use a multimethod approach that combines philosophical inquiry, conceptual analysis, and ethical considerations to identify key challenges that arise when AI is used for medical certainty purposes. We (...) identify several challenges. Where AI is used to reduce medical uncertainties, it is likely to result in (a) patients being stripped down to their measurable data points, and being made disambiguous. Additionally, the widespread use of AI technologies in health care bears the risk of (b) human physicians being pushed out of the medical decision-making process, and patient participation being more and more limited. Further, the successful use of AI requires extensive and invasive monitoring of patients, which raises (c) questions about surveillance as well as privacy and security issues. We outline these several challenges and show that they are immediate consequences of AI-driven security efforts. If not addressed, they could entail unfavorable consequences. We contend that diminishing medical uncertainties through AI involves a tradeoff. The advantages, including enhanced precision, personalization, and overall improvement in medicine, are accompanied by several novel challenges. This paper addresses them and gives suggestions about how to use AI for certainty purposes without causing harm to patients. (shrink)

Security is a major concern on the internet, and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks are a significant threat. These attacks overwhelm network resources and use up bandwidth, making it difficult for legitimate users to access services. One challenge in dealing with DDoS attacks is telling the difference between a sudden increase in traffic from real users, known as a "flash crowd," and actual attack traffic. This paper looks at different existing solutions for detecting DDoS attacks and explains how (...) these methods help reduce their impact. As more businesses move to cloud-based services, the risk of DDoS attacks has increased. These attacks can seriously disrupt organizations by overloading their network resources and making important services unavailable. Traditional defense methods, like firewalls, are no longer enough to handle the scale and complexity of modern DDoS attacks. To address this issue, We propose a new approach that utilizes the implementation of deep learning models to detect DDoS attacks in cloud environments. Our method uses various features from network traffic to train machine learning algorithms, aiming to effectively identify DDoS attacks in real-time with high accuracy. (shrink)

Language, one of humanity’s major transformative innovations, is foundational for many cultural, artistic, scientific, and economic advancements, including the creation of artificial intelligence (AI). However, in the fight against climate change, the power of such innovation is constrained due to the boring language of climate science and science communication. In this essay, we encapsulated the situation and risks of boring language in communicating climate information to the public and countering climate denialism and disinformation. Based on the Serendipity-Mindsponge-3D knowledge management (...) framework, we recommend several strategies for climate scientists and science communicators to be more creative and make their communication more interesting, including collaboration with other cultural sectors (e.g., stand-up comedians, climate fiction, etc.) and AI. (shrink)

In the presently unfolding deepfake era, recurrent inflationary algorithmic superintelligence (ASI) achievement claims degenerated from being a mere reflection of an exaggerated but candid initial enthusiasm to becoming a convenient tool for misdirection facilitating epistemic perpetuum mobile (EPM) scams. This transdisciplinarily conceived paper compactly analyzes the underlying ASI definition avoidance problem which emerged from interactions between three major epistemic trends in the ASI debate: boomerism, doomerism and pragmatism. Via taking a fourth external perspective entertained by a fictive entity called (...) Cyogenes who volunteers as a philosopher and criticizes contemporary conventions (inspired by the ancient Cynicism lived by early Greek philosophers including Antisthenes and Diogenes of Sinope), the paper highlights key strengths but also particularly pitfalls within those three aforementioned epistemic trends all of which face the ASI definition avoidance problem – clearing the way for global EPM scams. After this philosophical analysis, a deflationary account of ASI (i.e. the epistemic perpetuum mobile) is discussed. Thereafter, practical cybersecurity-oriented threat models and defenses against EPM scams are formulated. In brief, fruitless EPM scams unnecessarily risk intensifying the near-term existential risk of epistemic self-sabotage and reinforcing totalitarian aspirations. (shrink)

Although the principle of fair subject selection is a widely recognized requirement of ethical clinical research, it often yields conflicting imperatives, thus raising major ethical dilemmas regarding participant selection. In this paper, we diagnose the source of this problem, arguing that the principle of fair subject selection is best understood as a bundle of four distinct sub-principles, each with normative force and each yielding distinct imperatives: (1) fair inclusion; (2) fair burden sharing; (3) fair opportunity; and (4) fair distribution (...) of third-party risks. We first map out these distinct sub-principles, and then identify the ways in which they yield conflicting imperatives for the design of inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the recruitment of participants. We then offer guidance for how decision makers should navigate these conflicting imperatives to ensure that participants are selected fairly. (shrink)

Political violence is a major impediment to Nigeria's national development. With the restoration to democratic rule in May 1999, high expectations were raised that the new democratic dispensation would resolve the risk of Nigeria's political violence, while speeding the country's economic and social transformation. It's worrying that since democratic rule returned, Nigeria has experienced a degree of unprecedented political violence that has crippled the efforts of national development. The fundamental thrust of this paper is to investigate the incidence (...) of Nigeria's political violence and assess its national development consequences. The paper shows that political violence dissuades domestic and foreign investment in our economy, triggers government loss of revenue and resources, and results in the election of unqualified representatives to the detriment of the country's economic and social progress. This paper proposes reducing wages paid to political office holders, and politicians should strive to achieve national unity instead of growing religious and ethnic tensions. Lastly, National resources should also be equitably distributed by the government. (shrink)

A perennial problem in social epistemology is the problem of expert testimony, specifically expert testimony regarding scientific issues: for example, while it is important for me to know information pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, vaccine safety, Covid-19, etc., I may lack the scientific background required to determine whether the information I come across is, in fact, true. Without being able to evaluate the science itself, then, I need to find trustworthy expert testifiers to listen to. A major project in (...) social epistemology has thus become determining what the markers of trustworthiness are that laypersons can appeal to in order to identify and acquire information from expert testifiers. At the same time, the ways in which we acquire scientific information has changed significantly, with much of it nowadays being acquired in online environments. While much has been said about the potential pitfalls of seeking information online, little has been said about how the nature of seeking information online should make us think about the problem of expert testimony. Indeed, it seems to be an underlying assumption that good markers of trustworthiness apply equally well when seeking information from expert testifiers in online and offline environments alike, and that the new challenges and opportunities presented by online environments merely affects the methods by which we can acquire evidence of said trustworthiness. Here I argue that in making this assumption one risks failing to account for how unique features of the ways in which we acquire information online affect how we evaluate the trustworthiness of experts. Specifically, I argue for two main claims: first, that the nature of information-seeking online is such that the extent to which information is susceptible to manipulation is a dominant marker of trustworthiness; second, as a result, one will be more likely to seek out a particular kind of expert testifier in online environments, what I call a cooperative as opposed to preemptive expert. The result is that criteria for expert trustworthiness may look significantly different when acquiring information online as opposed to offline. (shrink)

Importance: Patients with remitted major depressive disorder (MDD) were previously found to display abnormal functional magnetic resonance imaging connectivity (fMRI) between the right superior anterior temporal lobe (RSATL) and the subgenual cingulate cortex and adjacent septal region (SCSR) when experiencing self-blaming emotions relative to emotions related to blaming others (eg, "indignation or anger toward others"). This finding provided the first neural signature of biases toward overgeneralized self-blaming emotions (eg, "feeling guilty for everything"), known to have a key role in (...) cognitive vulnerability to MDD. It is unknown whether this neural signature predicts risk of recurrence, a crucial step in establishing its potential as a prognostic biomarker, which is urgently needed for stratification into pathophysiologically more homogeneous subgroups and for novel treatments. -/- Objective: To use fMRI in remitted MDD at baseline to test the hypothesis that RSATL-SCSR connectivity for self-blaming relative to other-blaming emotions predicts subsequent recurrence of depressive episodes. -/- Design, setting, and participants: A prospective cohort study from June 16, 2011, to October 10, 2014, in a clinical research facility completed by 75 psychotropic medication-free patients with remitted MDD and no relevant comorbidity. In total, 31 remained in stable remission, and 25 developed a recurring episode over the 14 months of clinical follow-up and were included in the primary analysis. Thirty-nine control participants with no personal or family history of MDD were recruited for further comparison. -/- Main outcomes and measures: Between-group difference (recurring vs stable MDD) in RSATL connectivity, with an a priori SCSR region of interest for self-blaming vs other-blaming emotions. -/- Results: We corroborated our hypothesis that during the experience of self-blaming vs other-blaming emotions, RSATL-SCSR connectivity predicted risk of subsequent recurrence. The recurring MDD group showed higher connectivity than the stable MDD group (familywise error-corrected P < .05 over the a priori SCSR region of interest) and the control group. In addition, the recurring MDD group also exhibited RSATL hyperconnectivity with the right ventral putamen and claustrum and the temporoparietal junction. Together, these regions predicted recurrence with 75% accuracy. -/- Conclusions and relevance: To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide a robust demonstration of an fMRI signature of recurrence risk in remitted MDD. Additional studies are needed for its further optimization and validation as a prognostic biomarker. (shrink)

That AI will have a major impact on society is no longer in question. Current debate turns instead on how far this impact will be positive or negative, for whom, in which ways, in which places, and on what timescale. In order to frame these questions in a more substantive way, in this prolegomena we introduce what we consider the four core opportunities for society offered by the use of AI, four associated risks which could emerge from its overuse (...) or misuse, and the opportunity costs associated with its under use. We then offer a high-level view of the emerging advantages for organisations of taking an ethical approach to developing and deploying AI. Finally, we introduce a set of five principles which should guide the development and deployment of AI technologies. The development of laws, policies and best practices for seizing the opportunities and minimizing the risks posed by AI technologies would benefit from building on ethical frameworks such as the one offered here. (shrink)

The Best Form of Government for Power Transitions -/- Throughout history, the transition of power has been a defining factor in the stability or collapse of governments. While some governments manage peaceful and stable transitions, others experience violent overthrows, civil wars, or political chaos. The key to a successful power transition lies in strong institutions, clear succession rules, and public trust in the system. Based on historical evidence, liberal democracies with strong institutions are the most effective at ensuring smooth transitions. (...) However, other forms of government can also maintain stability if they have well-defined mechanisms for succession. This essay examines various government types and their effectiveness in power transitions. -/- The Importance of Stable Power Transitions -/- The process of transferring power is one of the most vulnerable moments for any political system. The ability to ensure smooth leadership changes is crucial for long-term stability. Governments that fail in this aspect often face coups, revolutions, or national disintegration. The most effective power transitions depend on: -/- 1. Legitimacy – Leaders must be chosen through a process accepted by the people and elites. -/- 2. Strong Institutions – Independent branches of government ensure continuity regardless of leadership changes. -/- 3. Elite Consensus – Political elites should agree on a leader’s succession to prevent internal power struggles. -/- 4. Public Support – If the population believes in the process, transitions are peaceful. -/- 5. Military Neutrality – The armed forces should not interfere in leadership changes. -/- Different forms of government approach power transitions in distinct ways. Below, we analyze their effectiveness. -/- 1. Liberal Democracy: The Best Model for Peaceful Transitions -/- Definition: -/- Liberal democracies are systems where leaders are chosen through free and fair elections, with checks and balances to prevent authoritarian rule. -/- Why It Ensures Smooth Transitions: -/- ✔ Elections Provide Legitimacy – Power changes peacefully through regular elections. ✔ Strong Institutions – Courts, legislatures, and the media help uphold the rule of law. ✔ Public Accountability – Leaders who lose elections step down without conflict. -/- Examples of Successful Power Transitions: -/- ✅ United States – Since 1789, despite crises like the Civil War and Great Depression, power transitions have remained constitutional. ✅ United Kingdom – The parliamentary system allows for smooth leadership changes without national instability. ✅ Germany (Post-WWII) – After democratic reforms, Germany has had peaceful transitions of power. -/- Challenges: -/- ❌ Election Disputes Can Create Instability – Example: The U.S. Capitol Riot (2021) after a contested election. ❌ Weak Institutions in Young Democracies – Example: Kenya’s 2007 election disputes led to violence. -/- Best Democratic Model: -/- ✔ Parliamentary Democracies (e.g., UK, Canada, Germany) tend to have smoother transitions than presidential systems because: -/- Leadership changes occur within political parties, reducing external conflicts. -/- Votes of no confidence can remove leaders without revolutions or coups. -/- 2. Constitutional Monarchy: Stable If Institutions Are Strong -/- Definition: -/- A constitutional monarchy is a system where a king or queen serves as a symbolic head of state, while an elected government runs the country. -/- Why It Ensures Smooth Transitions: -/- ✔ Monarchy Provides Stability – Kings and queens remain constant, reducing uncertainty. ✔ Elections Determine Political Leaders – The prime minister and parliament handle governance. ✔ Symbolic Unity – Monarchs can unify the country during crises. -/- Examples of Stable Monarchies: -/- ✅ United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Netherlands – Power transitions occur through democratic elections, while the monarchy remains a stabilizing force. -/- Challenges: -/- ❌ If the Monarch Becomes Politically Active, It Can Cause Crisis – Example: Thailand (2020s protests against the monarchy’s influence). ❌ If a Monarch Dies Unexpectedly, It Can Create Uncertainty – Example: Spain’s transition after Franco’s dictatorship (1975) depended on King Juan Carlos I to restore democracy. -/- Best Model for Monarchies: -/- ✔ Monarchies that Stay Neutral in Politics (e.g., UK, Sweden) prevent power struggles. -/- 3. One-Party States: Stable but Risky if a Leader Dies Unexpectedly -/- Definition: -/- One-party states are systems where only one political party governs, often without free elections. -/- Why It Can Have Stable Transitions: -/- ✔ Predictable Leadership Changes (if well-structured) – Leaders are often pre-selected within the ruling party. ✔ Less Election Conflict – No multi-party competition reduces disputes. ✔ Long-Term Policies – The government can plan policies without election cycles. -/- Examples of One-Party States with Stable Transitions: -/- ✅ China (Communist Party Rule) – Leaders were replaced every 10 years before Xi Jinping extended his rule. ✅ Vietnam (Communist Party) – The ruling party ensures orderly successions. -/- Challenges: -/- ❌ If a Leader Dies Suddenly, It Can Create Chaos – Example: North Korea after Kim Jong-il’s death (2011). ❌ If There’s No Clear Successor, Infighting Can Occur – Example: Soviet Union’s power struggles after Stalin’s death (1953). -/- Best Model for One-Party States: -/- ✔ China’s Model (Before 2018) – Leaders were pre-selected within the Communist Party, preventing instability. -/- 4. Absolute Monarchies and Dictatorships: The Most Unstable in Transitions -/- Definition: -/- A system where power is concentrated in one ruler or a small elite group, without elections. -/- Why Transitions Are Unstable: -/- ❌ No Clear Rules for Succession – Leaders often die or are overthrown, causing power struggles. ❌ Military Often Decides the Next Leader – Coups and instability occur frequently. ❌ If a Leader Becomes Too Powerful, No One Can Challenge Them – This leads to violent transitions. -/- Examples of Failed Transitions in Dictatorships: -/- ❌ Libya (Gaddafi Overthrown, 2011) – No clear succession plan led to a failed state. ❌ Soviet Union (After Stalin’s Death, 1953) – Power struggles created instability. ❌ Iraq (After Saddam Hussein, 2003) – No clear transition led to civil war. -/- Best Model for Dictatorships: -/- ✔ If a Dictatorship Must Exist, It Should Have a Clear Succession Plan – Example: Saudi Arabia has a royal succession council to avoid uncertainty. -/- Conclusion: Which Government Type is Best for Transitions? -/- 1️⃣ Best for Smooth Transitions: Liberal Democracies with Strong Institutions -/- Best Example: Parliamentary Systems (UK, Canada, Germany) – Leaders change peacefully without major conflicts. -/- 2️⃣ Good for Stability but Less Flexible: Constitutional Monarchies -/- Best Example: Japan, UK, Netherlands – Monarchs provide continuity, while governments change through elections. -/- 3️⃣ Stable but Risky: One-Party States -/- Best Example: China (Before 2018) – Internal party succession prevented chaos, but risk of dictatorship remains. -/- 4️⃣ Most Unstable: Dictatorships and Absolute Monarchies -/- Worst Example: Libya, Iraq, North Korea – Transitions are violent and unpredictable. -/- Ultimately, liberal democracies with strong institutions (especially parliamentary systems) are the best for stable power transitions. Dictatorships and absolute monarchies, on the other hand, often collapse violently when leaders die or are overthrown. By ensuring strong institutions, clear succession rules, and public trust, governments can create a system where leadership changes occur peacefully, securing long-term stability. -/- . (shrink)

Suicide is a major public health issue in many industrialized countries. It is one of the top ten causes of death and older age is a significant risk factor for suicide. For example, in Japan older adults (age ≥ 65) shared about 18.5% of total population but account for 24% of all suicide, in Taiwan, older adults representing 12.4% of the total population and account for 28.9% of suicide death. Dementia is a broad term for a progressive deterioration (...) in memory ability and dementia patients ran higher risk for suicide. (shrink)

Exposome research is put forward as a major tool for solving the nature-versus-nurture debate because the exposome is said to represent “the nature of nurture.” Against this influential idea, we argue that the adoption of the nature-versus-nurture debate into the exposome research program is a mistake that needs to be undone to allow for a proper bioethical assessment of exposome research. We first argue that this adoption is originally based on an equivocation between the traditional nature-versus-nurture debate and a (...) debate about disease prediction/etiology. Second, due to this mistake, exposome research is pushed to adopt a limited conception of agential control that is harmful to one's thinking about the good that exposome research can do for human health and wellbeing. To fully excise the nature-versus-nurture debate from exposome research, we argue that exposome researchers and bioethicists need to think about the exposome afresh from the perspective of actionability. We define the concept of actionability and related concepts and show how these can be used to analyze the ethical aspects of the exposome. In particular, we focus on refuting the popular “gun analogy” in exposome research, returning results to study participants and risk-taking in the context of a well-lived life. (shrink)

During the coronavirus pandemic, communities have faced shortages of important healthcare resources such as COVID-19 vaccines, medical staff, ICU beds and ventilators. Public health officials in the U.S. have had to make decisions about two major issues: which infected patients should be treated first, and which people who are at risk of infection should be inoculated first. Following Beauchamp and Childress’s principlism, adopted guidelines have tended to value both whole lives and life-years. This process of collective moral reasoning (...) has revealed our common commitment to both Kantian and utilitarian principles. For Kant, respecting people’s rights entails that we ought to value whole lives equally. Therefore we ought to allocate resources so as to maximise the number of patients who survive to discharge. By contrast, the principle of utility has us maximise life-years so that people can satisfy more of their considered preferences. Although people are treated impartially in the utilitarian calculus, it does not recognise their equal worth. Subjecting Kantian ethics and utilitarianism to the process of reflective equilibrium lends support to the idea that we need a pluralistic approach that would accommodate our moral intuitions regarding both the equal value of whole lives and the additive value of life-years. (shrink)

There is a commonly made distinction between two types of scientists: risk-taking, trailblazing mavericks and detail-oriented followers. A number of recent papers have discussed the question what a desirable mixture of mavericks and followers looks like. Answering this question is most useful if a scientific community can be steered toward such a desirable mixture. One attractive route is through credit incentives: manipulating rewards so that reward-seeking scientists are likely to form the desired mixture of their own accord. Here I (...) argue that this idea is less straightforward than it may seem. Interpreting mavericks as scientists who prioritize rewards over speed and risk, I show in a deliberatively simple model that there is a fixed mixture which is not particularly likely to be desirable and which credit incentives cannot alter. I consider a way around this result, but this has some major drawbacks. I conclude that credit incentives are not as promising a way to create a desirable mixture of mavericks and followers as one might have thought. (shrink)

The basic axioms or formal conditions of decision theory, especially the ordering condition put on preferences and the axioms underlying the expected utility formula, are subject to a number of counter-examples, some of which can be endowed with normative value and thus fall within the ambit of a philosophical reflection on practical rationality. Against such counter-examples, a defensive strategy has been developed which consists in redescribing the outcomes of the available options in such a way that the threatened axioms or (...) conditions continue to hold. We examine how this strategy performs in three major cases: Sen's counterexamples to the binariness property of preferences, the Allais paradox of EU theory under risk, and the Ellsberg paradox of EU theory under uncertainty. We find that the strategy typically proves to be lacking in several major respects, suffering from logical triviality, incompleteness, and theoretical insularity. To give the strategy more structure, philosophers have developed “principles of individuation”; but we observe that these do not address the aforementioned defects. Instead, we propose the method of checking whether the strategy can overcome its typical defects once it is given a proper theoretical expansion. We find that the strategy passes the test imperfectly in Sen's case and not at all in Allais's. In Ellsberg's case, however, it comes close to meeting our requirement. But even the analysis of this more promising application suggests that the strategy ought to address the decision problem as a whole, rather than just the outcomes, and that it should extend its revision process to the very statements it is meant to protect. Thus, by and large, the same cautionary tale against redescription practices runs through the analysis of all three cases. A more general lesson, simply put, is that there is no easy way out from the paradoxes of decision theory. (shrink)

By integration with cloud computing, cybersecurity and generative AI, the insurance industry is being transformed from high efficiency, low cost, and better customer service. However, these advanced technologies can also be used by insurers to automate and streamline processes like claims handling, underwriting, and policy generation, which are majorly time consuming and error prone. In predictive analytics, fraud detection, and personalized customer experience, generative AI makes it possible for insurers to mitigate risks and, at the same time, provide more personalized (...) services to customers. With cloud platforms, data management is scalable, flexible and secure, offering real time access to data that drives value by accelerating sound decisions in the insurance value chain. Sensitive data is protected against cybersecurity threats, staying compliant with regulations and marginally reducing risk. Guidewire’s unified technology stack allows insurers to leverage the integrated nature of these technologies through end-to-end integration to improve operational resilience and customer satisfaction. It is these synergies that are the future of insurance which is why transparency, ethical practices in AI as well as proactive cybersecurity are vital. It will become an arms race for insurers to keep pace with these changes and move away from being rigid and slow to adapt; they will need to stay agile and quick, especially with the landscape changing so rapidly. (shrink)