Empirical Testing in Economics

Diego Gambetta and Gloria Origgi describe Italy as a country in which there is a widespread preference for promising high quality goods and delivering low quality goods. Builders are presented as an example. Gambetta and Origgi make proposals regarding why there are these preferences. I was going to ask, why don’t they just try being builders for a while? But metaphorically speaking, they are builders, which makes explaining the problems they face easier.

Millikan's famous oil drop experiment is scrutinized from the viewpoint of the methodological dicta of the credibility revolution.

In de afgelopen tijd is compensatoir toetsen in het Nederlandse onderwijs een populaire toetsvorm geworden. Hierbij slaagt een student voor een reeks toetsen indien het gemiddelde op deze reeks voldoende is. In deze analyse betogen wij dat het compensatoire systeem echter zowel onverdedigbaar als moreel gezien onverantwoordelijk is. Het grote gevaar van compensatoire toetsregimes is namelijk dat het hiaten in kennis en vaardigheden tolereert, wat de validiteit van een diploma ondermijnt en bovendien medeburgers in gevaar brengt.

The article identifies real losses of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprises of Ukraine under the influence of modern challenges. The main purpose of the study is to implement a scientific and methodological approach to assess the impact of modern challenges on the development of foreign economic activity of enterprises. A critical analysis of the content of scientific publications on the studied issues revealed the lack of an integrated approach to establishing the real losses of foreign economic activity of enterprises (...) under the influence of modern challenges. The urgency of solving a certain problem is due to the scale of the impact of modern challenges on the dynamics of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprises, which requires an assessment of such an impact for the further development of measures that will be aimed at minimizing the negative impact of modern challenges. The methodological basis is the system of methods used to obtain the results of the study: theoretical generalization and analytical methods ‒ to clarify scientific approaches in determining the impact of modern challenges on the development of foreign economic activity of enterprises; generalization, grouping and integral evaluation ‒ to determine the level of influence of modern challenges on the development of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprises in 2013‒2021; relative and absolute deviations, coefficient analysis of changes in foreign trade turnover ‒ to establish the volume of losses of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprises of Ukraine under the influence of modern challenges; logical generalization ‒ to obtain conclusions and develop recommendations based on research results. The object of research in the work is the foreign economic activity of enterprises. The article presents the results of assessing the impact of modern challenges on the development of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprises, which became possible due to the developed and implemented author's scientific and methodological approach. Analysis and logical generalization of the results of assessing the impact of modern challenges on the development of foreign economic activity of industrial enterprises became the basis for determining the real volumes of losses of their foreign trade turnover. The results of the study have practical value for the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and the Entrepreneurship and export promotion office, because they can serve as the basis for developing a program of recommendations for activating the export initiative of industrial enterprises under modern conditions. (shrink)

Volume 26, Issue 4, December 2019, Page 380-384.

Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of orthodox (...) economic theory. Second, a conditional predictivism: if we are not committed to orthodox economic theory, then we should demand prediction rather than accommodation – against most current practice. (shrink)

In this paper I study how the theoretical categories of consumption theory were used by Milton Friedman in order to classify empirical data and obtain predictions. Friedman advocated a case by case definition of these categories that traded theoretical coherence for empirical content. I contend that this methodological strategy puts a clear incentive to contest any prediction contrary to our interest: it can always be argued that these predictions rest on a wrong classification of data. My conjecture is that this (...) methodological strategy can contribute to explain why Friedman’s predictions never generated the consensus he expected among his peers. (shrink)

In this paper I study Milton Friedman’s statistical education, paying special attention to the different methodological approaches (Fisher, Neyman and Savage) to which he was exposed. I contend that these statistical procedures involved different views as to the evaluation of statistical predictions. In this light, the thesis defended in Friedman’s 1953 methodological essay appears substantially ungrounded.

In this paper I explore a positivist methodological tradition in early demand theory, as exemplified by several common traits that I draw from the works of V. Pareto, H. L. Moore and H. Schultz. Assuming a current approach to explanation in the social sciences, I will discuss the building of their various explanans, showing that the three authors agreed on two distinctive methodological features: the exclusion of any causal commitment to psychology when explaining individual choice and the mandate to test (...) the truth of demand theory on aggregate data by statistical means. However, I also contend, from an epistemological point of view, that the truth of demand theory was conceived of in three different ways by our authors. Inspired by Poincaré, Pareto assumed that many different theories could account for the same data on individual choice, coming close to a kind of conventionalism -though I prefer to refer to this position as theoreticism. Moore was himself akin to Pearson's approach, which could be named descriptivist insofar as it resolved scientific laws into statistical descriptions of the data. Finally, Schultz tried to reconcile both approaches in an adequationist stance with no success, as we shall see. (shrink)

Popper's well-known demarcation criterion has often been understood to distinguish statements of empirical science according to their logical form. Implicit in this interpretation of Popper's philosophy is the belief that when the universe of discourse of the empirical scientist is infinite, empirical universal sentences are falsifiable but not verifiable, whereas the converse holds for existential sentences. A remarkable elaboration of this belief is to be found in Watkins's early work on the statements he calls “all-and-some,” such as: “For every metal (...) there is a melting point.” All-and-some statements are both universally and existentially quantified in that order. Watkins argued that AS should be regarded as both nonfalsifiable and nonverifiable, for they partake in the logical fate of both universal and existential statements. This claim is subject to the proviso that the bound variables are “uncircumscribed” ; i.e., that the universe of discourse is infinite. (shrink)

The usage of Randomised Evaluations(REs) in social inquiry has been recent and responses to them have been wide ranging.RE seek to make predictions on the impact of an intervention, when it is attempted in a new situation. REs work by first determining the impact of the intervention. Subsequently, for the new situation it is expected that the impact would be similar. -/- The problem of induction poses one of the most serious challenges to the epistemological status of RE claims as (...) the value of REs themselve stem from their predictive validity. If the problem of induction is not solved or evaded then belief in projections based on REs is undermined. -/- In this paper, I argue that the unique methodology of REs used in Social Sciences allows itself to evade the problem the successfully, warranting belief that future interventions would have similar impact. (shrink)