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  1.  73
    A Trap at the Escape From the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Sergey Yu Malkov - 2014 - In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 201-267.
    The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
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  2.  81
    Origins of Globalization in the Framework of the Afroeurasian World-System History.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (1):32-64.
    The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years BCE. In this (...)
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  3.  61
    Introduction. Big History's Big Potential.Leonid Grinin, David Baker, Esther Quaedackers & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - In Leonid Grinin, David Baker, Esther Quaedackers & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 7-18.
    Big History has been developing very fast indeed. We are currently observing a ‘Cambrian explosion’ in terms of its popularity and diffusion. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries, including China, Korea, the Netherlands, the USA, India, Russia, Japan, Australia, Great Britain, Germany, and many more. The International Big History Association (IBHA) is gaining momentum in its projects and membership. Conferences are beginning to be held regularly (this edited volume has been prepared on (...)
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  4.  62
    Modeling of Biological and Social Phases of Big History.Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev & Alexander V. Markov - 2015 - In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 111-150.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the (...)
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  5.  50
    Cyclical Dynamics in Economics and Politics in the Past and in the Future.Leonid Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - In Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 5-24.
    Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However, it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate the nature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actually the primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs to Kondratieff.
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  6.  43
    Stability of Sociopolitical Systems in the Context of Globalization: Revolution and Democracy.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2015 - Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 9 (2):01-34.
    Issues of sociopolitical systems’ stability and risks of their destabi-lization in process of political transformations belong to the most important ones as regards the social development perspectives, as has been shown again by the recent events in Ukraine. In this re-spect it appears necessary to note that the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of respective sociopolitical systems. This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high (...)
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  7.  32
    Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends.Leonid Grinin, Alexander V. Markov & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd,Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 9-48.
    In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the (...)
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  8. History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles.Leonid Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - Volgograd: "Uchitel" Publishing House.
    The present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics. An increasingly important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical (...)
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  9. Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field.Leonid Grinin, David Baker, Esther Quaedackers & Andrey V. Korotayev - 2014 - Volgograd: "Uchitel" Publishing House.
    According to the working definition of the International Big History Association, ‘Big History seeks to understand the integrated history of the Cosmos, Earth, Life and Humanity, using the best available empirical evidence and scholarly methods’. In recent years Big History has been developing very fast indeed. Big History courses are taught in the schools and universities of several dozen countries. Hundreds of researchers are involved in studying and teaching Big History. The unique approach of Big History, the interdisciplinary genre of (...)
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