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The science of conjecture: Evidence and probability before Pascal

Baltimore, USA: Johns Hopkins University Press (2001)

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  1. Science by Conceptual Analysis: The Genius of the Late Scholastics.James Franklin - 2012 - Studia Neoaristotelica 9 (1):3-24.
    The late scholastics, from the fourteenth to the seventeenth centuries, contributed to many fields of knowledge other than philosophy. They developed a method of conceptual analysis that was very productive in those disciplines in which theory is relatively more important than empirical results. That includes mathematics, where the scholastics developed the analysis of continuous motion, which fed into the calculus, and the theory of risk and probability. The method came to the fore especially in the social sciences. In legal theory (...)
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  • Reciprocity as a Foundation of Financial Economics.Timothy C. Johnson - 2015 - Journal of Business Ethics 131 (1):43-67.
    This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results (...)
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  • From Mere Coincidences to Meaningful Discoveries.Thomas L. Griffiths & Joshua B. Tenenbaum - 2007 - Cognition 103 (2):180-226.
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  • Philosophical Issues Related to Risks and Values.Renato Rodrigues Kinouchi - 2018 - Filosofia Unisinos 19 (3).
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  • Evaluating Extreme Risks in Invasion Ecology: Learning From Banking Compliance.James Franklin, Mark Burgman, Scott Sisson & J. K. Martin - 2008 - Diversity and Distributions 14:581-591.
    methods that have shown promise for improving extreme risk analysis, particularly for assessing the risks of invasive pests and pathogens associated with international trade. We describe the legally inspired regulatory regime for banks, where these methods have been brought to bear on extreme ‘operational risks’. We argue that an ‘advocacy model’ similar to that used in the Basel II compliance regime for bank operational risks and to a lesser extent in biosecurity import risk analyses is ideal for permitting the diversity (...)
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  • Evidence Gained From Torture: Wishful Thinking, Checkability, and Extreme Circumstances.James Franklin - 2009 - Cardozo Journal of International and Comparative Law 17:281-290.
    "Does torture work?" is a factual rather than ethical or legal question. But legal and ethical discussions of torture should be informed by knowledge of the answer to the factual question of the reliability of torture as an interrogation technique. The question as to whether torture works should be asked before that of its legal admissibility—if it is not useful to interrogators, there is no point considering its legality in court.
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  • How Much of Commonsense and Legal Reasoning is Formalizable? A Review of Conceptual Obstacles.James Franklin - 2012 - Law, Probability and Risk 11:225-245.
    Fifty years of effort in artificial intelligence (AI) and the formalization of legal reasoning have produced both successes and failures. Considerable success in organizing and displaying evidence and its interrelationships has been accompanied by failure to achieve the original ambition of AI as applied to law: fully automated legal decision-making. The obstacles to formalizing legal reasoning have proved to be the same ones that make the formalization of commonsense reasoning so difficult, and are most evident where legal reasoning has to (...)
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  • An Aristotelian Realist Philosophy of Mathematics: Mathematics as the Science of Quantity and Stucture.James Franklin - 2014 - Palgrave MacMillan.
    An Aristotelian Philosophy of Mathematics breaks the impasse between Platonist and nominalist views of mathematics. Neither a study of abstract objects nor a mere language or logic, mathematics is a science of real aspects of the world as much as biology is. For the first time, a philosophy of mathematics puts applied mathematics at the centre. Quantitative aspects of the world such as ratios of heights, and structural ones such as symmetry and continuity, are parts of the physical world and (...)
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  • Pascal’s Wager and the Origins of Decision Theory: Decision-Making by Real Decision-Makers.James Franklin - 2018 - In Paul Bartha & Lawrence Pasternack (eds.), Pascal's Wager. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 27-44.
    Pascal’s Wager does not exist in a Platonic world of possible gods, abstract probabilities and arbitrary payoffs. Real decision-makers, such as Pascal’s “man of the world” of 1660, face a range of religious options they take to be serious, with fixed probabilities grounded in their evidence, and with utilities that are fixed quantities in actual minds. The many ingenious objections to the Wager dreamed up by philosophers do not apply in such a real decision matrix. In the situation Pascal addresses, (...)
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  • Experimental Versus Speculative Natural Philosophy.Peter R. Anstey - 2005 - In The Science of Nature in the Seventeenth Century: Patterns of Changes in Early Modern Natural Philosophy. Dordrecht: Springer. pp. 215-242.
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  • Franklin’s ConjectureJames Franklin. The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal. Xiii + 497 Pp., Table, Index. Baltimore/London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001. $55. [REVIEW]Ian Hacking - 2004 - Isis 95 (3):460-464.
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  • The Science of Conjecture.James Franklin - 2003 - Mind 112 (447):539-542.
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  • James Franklin’s The Science of Conjecture.Doug Jesseph - 2003 - Journal of Philosophy, Science and Law 3:23-27.
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