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  1. The natural frequency hypothesis and evolutionary arguments.Yuichi Amitani - 2015 - Mind and Society 15 (1):1-19.
    In the rationality debate, Gerd Gigerenzer and his colleagues have argued that human’s apparent inability to follow probabilistic principles does not mean our irrationality, because we can do probabilistic reasoning successfully if probability information is given in frequencies, not percentages (the natural frequency hypothesis). They also offered an evolutionary argument to this hypothesis, according to which using frequencies was evolutionarily more advantageous to our hominin ancestors than using percentages, and this is why we can reason correctly about probabilities in the (...)
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  • (1 other version)Commentary/Elqayam & Evans: Subtracting “ought” from “is”.Natalie Gold, Andrew M. Colman & Briony D. Pulford - 2011 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (5).
    Normative theories can be useful in developing descriptive theories, as when normative subjective expected utility theory is used to develop descriptive rational choice theory and behavioral game theory. “Ought” questions are also the essence of theories of moral reasoning, a domain of higher mental processing that could not survive without normative considerations.
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  • Paley's ipod: The cognitive basis of the design argument within natural theology.Helen De Cruz & Johan De Smedt - 2010 - Zygon 45 (3):665-684.
    The argument from design stands as one of the most intuitively compelling arguments for the existence of a divine Creator. Yet, for many scientists and philosophers, Hume's critique and Darwin's theory of natural selection have definitely undermined the idea that we can draw any analogy from design in artifacts to design in nature. Here, we examine empirical studies from developmental and experimental psychology to investigate the cognitive basis of the design argument. From this it becomes clear that humans spontaneously discern (...)
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  • On the Reality of the Base-Rate Fallacy: A Logical Reconstruction of the Debate.Martina Calderisi - forthcoming - Review of Philosophy and Psychology:1-19.
    Does the most common response given by participants presented with Tversky and Kahneman’s famous taxi cab problem amount to a violation of Bayes’ theorem? In other words, do they fall victim to so-called base-rate fallacy? In the present paper, following an earlier suggestion by Crupi and Girotto, we will identify the logical arguments underlying both the original diagnosis of irrationality in this reasoning task under uncertainty and a number of objections that have been raised against such a diagnosis. This will (...)
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  • The number sense represents (rational) numbers.Sam Clarke & Jacob Beck - 2021 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 44:1-57.
    On a now orthodox view, humans and many other animals possess a “number sense,” or approximate number system, that represents number. Recently, this orthodox view has been subject to numerous critiques that question whether the ANS genuinely represents number. We distinguish three lines of critique – the arguments from congruency, confounds, and imprecision – and show that none succeed. We then provide positive reasons to think that the ANS genuinely represents numbers, and not just non-numerical confounds or exotic substitutes for (...)
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  • How children use examples to make conditional predictions.Charles W. Kalish - 2010 - Cognition 116 (1):1-14.
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  • Decisions under uncertainty are more messy than they seem.Jarno Tuominen - 2023 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 46:e109.
    Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is conceptually so multifaceted as to make critical evaluation difficult. It also omits one course of action: Active engagement with the world. Parsing the developmental and mechanistic processes within CNT would allow for a rigorous research programme to put the account under test. I propose a unifying account based on active inference.
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  • Processing Probability Information in Nonnumerical Settings – Teachers’ Bayesian and Non-bayesian Strategies During Diagnostic Judgment.Timo Leuders & Katharina Loibl - 2020 - Frontiers in Psychology 11.
    A diagnostic judgment of a teacher can be seen as an inference from manifest observable evidence on a student’s behavior to his or her latent traits. This can be described by a Bayesian model of in-ference: The teacher starts from a set of assumptions on the student (hypotheses), with subjective probabilities for each hypothesis (priors). Subsequently, he or she uses observed evidence (stu-dents’ responses to tasks) and knowledge on conditional probabilities of this evidence (likelihoods) to revise these assumptions. Many systematic (...)
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  • Common minds, uncommon thoughts: a philosophical anthropological investigation of uniquely human creative behavior, with an emphasis on artistic ability, religious reflection, and scientific study.Johan De Smedt - unknown
    The aim of this dissertation is to create a naturalistic philosophical picture of creative capacities that are specific to our species, focusing on artistic ability, religious reflection, and scientific study. By integrating data from diverse domains within a philosophical anthropological framework, I have presented a cognitive and evolutionary approach to the question of why humans, but not other animals engage in such activities. Through an application of cognitive and evolutionary perspectives to the study of these behaviors, I have sought to (...)
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  • A description–experience gap in statistical intuitions: Of smart babies, risk-savvy chimps, intuitive statisticians, and stupid grown-ups.Christin Schulze & Ralph Hertwig - 2021 - Cognition 210 (C):104580.
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  • Shake it baby, but only when needed: Preschoolers adapt their exploratory strategies to the information structure of the task.Azzurra Ruggeri, Nora Swaboda, Zi Lin Sim & Alison Gopnik - 2019 - Cognition 193 (C):104013.
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  • Children’s Neglect of Probabilities in Decision Making with and without Feedback.Anna Lang & Tilmann Betsch - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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  • Combinatorics and probability: Six- to ten-year-olds reliably predict whether a relation will occur.Michel Gonzalez & Vittorio Girotto - 2011 - Cognition 120 (3):372-379.
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  • Gigerenzer’s ‘external validity argument’ against the heuristics and biases program: an assessment.Andrea Polonioli - 2012 - Mind and Society 11 (2):133-148.
    Gigerenzer’s ‘external validity argument’ plays a pivotal role in his critique of the heuristics and biases research program (HB). The basic idea is that (a) the experimental contexts deployed by HB are not representative of the real environment and that (b) the differences between the setting and the real environment are causally relevant, because they result in different performances by the subjects. However, by considering Gigerenzer’s work on frequencies in probability judgments, this essay attempts to show that there are fatal (...)
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  • Rational variability in children’s causal inferences: The Sampling Hypothesis.Stephanie Denison, Elizabeth Bonawitz, Alison Gopnik & Thomas L. Griffiths - 2013 - Cognition 126 (2):285-300.
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  • Young children do not succeed in choice tasks that imply evaluating chances.Vittorio Girotto, Laura Fontanari, Michel Gonzalez, Giorgio Vallortigara & Agnès Blaye - 2016 - Cognition 152 (C):32-39.
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  • The origins of probabilistic inference in human infants.Stephanie Denison & Fei Xu - 2014 - Cognition 130 (3):335-347.
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  • The case for moral empiricism.Shaun Nichols - 2021 - Analysis 81 (3):549-567.
    It is an old and venerable idea in philosophy that morality is built into us, and this nativist view has seen a resurgence of late. Indeed, the prevailing systematic account of how we acquire complex moral representations is a nativist view inspired by arguments in Chomskyan linguistics. In this article, I review the leading argument for moral nativism – the poverty of the moral stimulus. I defend a systematic empiricist alternative that draws on the resources of statistical learning. Such an (...)
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  • Basic understanding of posterior probability.Vittorio Girotto & Stefania Pighin - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  • Undisputed norms and normal errors in human thinking.Vittorio Girotto - 2011 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (5):255-256.
    This commentary questions Elqayam & Evans' (E&E's) claims that thinking tasks are doomed to have multiple normative readings and that only applied research allows normative evaluations. In fact, some tasks have just one undisputed normative reading, and not only pathological gamblers but also normal individuals sometimes need normative guidance. To conclude, normative evaluations are inevitable in the investigation of human thinking.
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  • Children’s quantitative Bayesian inferences from natural frequencies and number of chances.Stefania Pighin, Vittorio Girotto & Katya Tentori - 2017 - Cognition 168 (C):164-175.
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