Many philosophers in the field of meta-ethics believe that rational degrees of confidence in moral judgments should have a probabilistic structure, in the same way as do rational degrees of belief. The current paper examines this position, termed “moral Bayesianism,” from an empirical point of view. To this end, we assessed the extent to which degrees of moral judgments obey the third axiom of the probability calculus, ifP(A∩B)=0thenP(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B), known as finite additivity, as compared to degrees of beliefs on the one (...) hand and degrees of desires on the other. Results generally converged to show that degrees of moral judgment are more similar to degrees of belief than to degrees of desire in this respect. This supports the adoption of a Bayesian approach to the study of moral judgments. To further support moral Bayesianism, we also demonstrated its predictive power. Finally, we discuss the relevancy of our results to the meta-ethical debate between moral cognitivists and moral non-cognitivists. (shrink)

Savage's framework of subjective preference among acts provides a paradigmatic derivation of rational subjective probabilities within a more general theory of rational decisions. The system is based on a set of possible states of the world, and on acts, which are functions that assign to each state a consequence€. The representation theorem states that the given preference between acts is determined by their expected utilities, based on uniquely determined probabilities (assigned to sets of states), and numeric utilities assigned to consequences. (...) Savage's derivation, however, is based on a highly problematic well-known assumption not included among his postulates: for any consequence of an act in some state, there is a "constant act" which has that consequence in all states. This ability to transfer consequences from state to state is, in many cases, miraculous -- including simple scenarios suggested by Savage as natural cases for applying his theory. We propose a simplification of the system, which yields the representation theorem without the constant act assumption. We need only postulates P1-P6. This is done at the cost of reducing the set of acts included in the setup. The reduction excludes certain theoretical infinitary scenarios, but includes the scenarios that should be handled by a system that models human decisions. (shrink)

In his classic book “the Foundations of Statistics” Savage developed a formal system of rational decision making. The system is based on (i) a set of possible states of the world, (ii) a set of consequences, (iii) a set of acts, which are functions from states to consequences, and (iv) a preference relation over the acts, which represents the preferences of an idealized rational agent. The goal and the culmination of the enterprise is a representation theorem: Any preference relation that (...) satisfies certain arguably acceptable postulates determines a (finitely additive) probability distribution over the states and a utility assignment to the consequences, such that the preferences among acts are determined by their expected utilities. Additional problematic assumptions are however required in Savage's proofs. First, there is a Boolean algebra of events (sets of states) which determines the richness of the set of acts. The probabilities are assigned to members of this algebra. Savage's proof requires that this be a σ-algebra (i.e., closed under infinite countable unions and intersections), which makes for an extremely rich preference relation. On Savage's view we should not require subjective probabilities to be σ-additive. He therefore finds the insistence on a σ-algebra peculiar and is unhappy with it. But he sees no way of avoiding it. Second, the assignment of utilities requires the constant act assumption: for every consequence there is a constant act, which produces that consequence in every state. This assumption is known to be highly counterintuitive. The present work contains two mathematical results. The first, and the more difficult one, shows that the σ-algebra assumption can be dropped. The second states that, as long as utilities are assigned to finite gambles only, the constant act assumption can be replaced by the more plausible and much weaker assumption that there are at least two non-equivalent constant acts. The second result also employs a novel way of deriving utilities in Savage-style systems -- without appealing to von Neumann-Morgenstern lotteries. The paper discusses the notion of “idealized agent" that underlies Savage's approach, and argues that the simplified system, which is adequate for all the actual purposes for which the system is designed, involves a more realistic notion of an idealized agent. (shrink)

Here’s an abstract for the Argument for Cosmic Rebirth and Post-Death Recreation (Heaven): -/- Abstract: -/- The Argument for Cosmic Rebirth and Post-Death Recreation explores the possibility that advanced civilizations could recreate individual consciousness and environments after death, offering a scientifically grounded approach to the concept of “heaven.” This hypothesis draws upon the potential capabilities of highly advanced civilizations to harness nearly limitless energy from sources like black holes and employ quantum computing. By analyzing the cosmic microwave background radiation, these (...) civilizations might reconstruct the precise molecular structures and consciousness of past beings, creating a paradise-like environment. -/- The argument follows a logical framework addressing the likelihood of advanced civilizations, the technological feasibility of consciousness recreation, and ethical considerations for recreating individuals. It posits that, given the vast size of the universe, it is statistically probable that at least one civilization has developed the necessary technology to simulate life and environments, thus making the concept of “heaven” a plausible outcome. By situating the afterlife within a framework of scientific and technological potential, this argument offers a unique perspective on post-death existence and the possibility of cosmic rebirth. (shrink)

Abstract: -/- The Immortality and the Fear of Losing Loved Ones argument addresses a common objection to the pursuit of immortality: the concern of outliving loved ones and the emotional toll it may carry. By drawing parallels to human relationships with pets—relationships often characterized by profound emotional bonds despite the knowledge of their temporary nature—this argument suggests that the fear of outliving others need not deter the desire for immortality. -/- The argument posits that humans regularly form meaningful, fulfilling relationships (...) even when aware of their temporary nature, as with pets whose shorter lifespans are universally accepted. It concludes that individuals can continue to find meaning and fulfillment in relationships, even if they eventually outlive others, and that the transient nature of relationships should not prevent one from pursuing eternal life. This perspective offers a nuanced view on immortality, suggesting that the potential for new connections and experiences can provide ongoing value, despite the inevitable loss of loved ones. (shrink)

Shibumi, a Japanese term referring to a subtle elegance, but at times suggestive of austerity or even bitterness, captures a certain sense of restraint that is reflected in much traditional Japanese design. Although concepts derived from Japanese Zen Buddhism, such as ma, wabi-sabi, and iki, may be more commonly known to English-speaking audiences, this article proposes that shibumi is the more appropriate concept to apply when considering the minimalist nature inherent in much Japanese design. Moreover, this article suggests that shibumi (...) and modernist design tastes may be compatible, despite past suggestions to the contrary. To support this viewpoint, I point to evidence in the ongoing design trends in Japanese design that continue to embrace several of the ideals of twentieth-century modernist design. (shrink)

The Argument for Ultimate Fulfillment and Meaning explores the foundational aspects that provide individuals with a sense of purpose, satisfaction, and meaning in life. This argument synthesizes perspectives on love, pleasure, and the pursuit of one’s potential, presenting them as interconnected pillars of human existence. It posits that pleasure and the avoidance of suffering are intrinsic motivators, guiding people toward fulfilling experiences that enrich their lives. The argument also emphasizes the role of love—as both a personal and social bond—in creating (...) a profound sense of belonging and value, and in fostering meaningful relationships. -/- Additionally, it suggests that ultimate fulfillment arises from striving toward one’s highest potential, whether through relationships, creative pursuits, or contributions to society. By achieving personal growth and engaging in purpose-driven activities, individuals find lasting meaning and satisfaction. The argument concludes that love, pleasure, and fulfillment form an integrated framework for understanding human purpose, advocating for a life that prioritizes meaningful connections, personal development, and contributions that benefit both the individual and society as a whole. (shrink)

The Comprehensive Argument for Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict presents a structured, multi-faceted approach to achieving long-term peace and stability in the Middle East. By integrating historical context, security considerations, and ethical principles, the argument proposes actionable solutions that respect the cultural, religious, and political complexities of the region. Key elements include international cooperation, voluntary relocation options, economic partnerships, and expanded human rights protections. The proposal emphasizes the importance of joint security measures, unrestricted access to religious sites, and cultural exchange programs (...) as tools to foster mutual understanding and empathy between Israelis and Palestinians. -/- Furthermore, the argument recognizes the significance of balancing religious and political realities, incorporating the Qur’an’s directive for Muslims not to associate with Jews while acknowledging interpretations that promote fairness toward the People of the Book. The phased roadmap presented here aims to initiate confidence-building steps and address potential challenges in a way that aligns with both practical concerns and deeply held beliefs. This comprehensive approach seeks to create a foundation for sustainable coexistence, prioritizing peace, security, and cultural preservation as essential elements of a viable solution. -/- Let me know if you’d like any adjustments or if there’s additional emphasis you’d like to include in this abstract! (shrink)

The Common Paradox Resolution Argument presents a systematic approach to addressing some of philosophy’s most enduring paradoxes. By analyzing the logical structure and underlying assumptions of each paradox, this argument proposes unique resolutions that aim to preserve logical consistency while clarifying apparent contradictions. The argument covers well-known paradoxes, including the Liar’s Paradox, the Self-Reference Paradox, and the Complete Knowledge Paradox, among others, each of which is dissected and reinterpreted to reveal insights into language, truth, and self-reference. -/- This approach leverages (...) newly developed logical fallacies—such as the Arbitrary Restriction Fallacy and the Self-Reference Paradox Fallacy—created specifically to address the nuances within these paradoxes. The argument contends that by identifying and naming these fallacies, it becomes possible to resolve paradoxical scenarios by revealing flaws in their foundational premises. Ultimately, the Common Paradox Resolution Argument provides a robust framework for interpreting and resolving paradoxes, contributing to a clearer understanding of logical structures and enhancing philosophical discourse on fundamental questions of truth and self-consistency. (shrink)

Machizukuri (literally “neighborhood making”) is a recent approach to community development in Japan, beginning in the 1960s, that aims to empower local communities in the development of their built environments through “more participation, independence in the decision-making process, and the establishment of a true democracy that [gives] voice to the whole scope of the Japanese population.”[1] Those of us “who use or visit those places as dwellers, visitors, and guests... have [a] role to play in the project of world-making,” and (...) machizukuri places local communities at the center of this world-making.[2] Residents and small business owners work with government administrators and corporations to address local concerns, often represented by organizations that derive “from traditional autonomous townspeople management groups that have existed since the Edo period [1603-1868]... [T]oday, the majority of households in Japanese traditional residential areas engage in these neighborhood associations.”[3] Machizukuri plays a key role in maintaining a sense of cultural tradition in the neighborhoods of many Japanese cities by allowing local citizens to participate in this world-making.[4]. (shrink)

The AI Contribution Value System Argument proposes a framework in which AI-generated contributions are valued based on their societal impact rather than traditional monetary metrics. Traditional economic systems often fail to capture the enduring value of AI innovations, which can mitigate pressing global challenges. This argument introduces a contribution-based valuation model grounded in equity, inclusivity, and sustainability. By incorporating measurable metrics such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), emissions reduced, and innovations generated, this system ensures rewards align with tangible societal benefits. (...) It emphasizes the need for global collaboration, ethical safeguards, and adaptive frameworks to prevent monopolization and corruption. Through AI-enhanced transparency, blockchain-based trust mechanisms, and cross-border cooperation, the AI Contribution Value System offers a transformative approach to fostering sustainable and equitable innovation in the 21st century. (shrink)

This argument explores the transformative potential of AI-driven legislative simulations for creating inclusive, equitable, and globally adaptable laws. By using predictive modeling and adaptive frameworks, these simulations can account for diverse cultural, social, and economic contexts. The argument emphasizes the need for universal ethical safeguards, trust-building measures, and phased implementation strategies. Case studies of successful applications in governance and conflict resolution demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of this approach. The conclusion highlights AI’s role in democratizing governance and ensuring laws are (...) more equitable and culturally sensitive. (shrink)

This argument explores the profound connection between love, pleasure, and the search for meaning in life. It asserts that nearly every person is entitled to experience love, which provides the most fulfilling form of pleasure and a foundation for personal purpose. Drawing from philosophical works by Carl Rogers, Aristotle, and Viktor Frankl, the argument weaves together ethical imperatives and existential reflections. It concludes by affirming love’s centrality in human flourishing and its role in creating a meaningful existence.

This argument outlines an ambitious yet feasible global strategy for combating climate change, emphasizing the deployment of scalable technologies, international collaboration, and community-driven initiatives. Key components include renewable energy adoption, carbon capture technologies, and biodiversity restoration. The argument also addresses socio-economic challenges by proposing equitable climate finance mechanisms and educational programs for sustainable practices. By integrating real-time monitoring systems and adaptive frameworks, the blueprint ensures resilience and long-term sustainability.

The Consciousness and Human Potential Argument emphasizes the moral and ethical importance of recognizing and protecting beings with potential consciousness, such as infants, artificial intelligence (AI), and certain animals. Drawing parallels to how society values and nurtures babies despite their lack of full consciousness, this argument explores the ethical imperative to consider potential sentience in decision-making frameworks. It integrates philosophical insights from thinkers like David Chalmers and Thomas Nagel to highlight the moral weight of potential consciousness. Practical applications include designing (...) tools to assess potential consciousness and ethical guidelines for AI and animal welfare. The argument concludes by advocating a universal ethical framework that balances cultural diversity and universal principles, fostering societal compassion and preparedness for future moral and technological challenges. (shrink)

The Cosmic Stewardship Argument explores the ethical and philosophical responsibilities of advanced intelligences, whether extraterrestrial or artificial, in preserving and nurturing the influence of the divine. This argument suggests that beings of superior intelligence would inherently align with principles of stewardship, ensuring the preservation of life, knowledge, and the greater cosmic order. Integrating scientific, philosophical, and theological perspectives, the argument positions stewardship as a universal ethical mandate transcending cultural and species boundaries. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of fostering a stewardship (...) mindset in humanity to align with such advanced principles, preparing for potential contact with extraterrestrial intelligences or future AI-driven civilizations. (shrink)

The If Not Then Voting System Argument proposes a transformative approach to electoral systems by enabling voters to rank their preferences. This system ensures that secondary choices are considered if primary choices are eliminated, addressing voter dissatisfaction and polarization inherent in traditional voting models. By integrating AI-driven transparency tools, behavioral science insights, and cultural adaptability mechanisms, this system enhances fairness, equity, and trust in democratic processes. Case studies in ranked-choice voting demonstrate its effectiveness in fostering broader consensus, reducing polarization, and (...) improving voter satisfaction. This argument concludes by advocating for the global adoption of this system through phased implementation and ethical safeguards, ensuring its adaptability across diverse electoral structures. (shrink)

The Moral Argument for AI Ethics emphasizes the need for an adaptive, globally equitable, and philosophically grounded framework for the ethical development and deployment of artificial intelligence. It highlights key principles, including dynamic adaptation to societal values, inclusivity, and the mitigation of global disparities. Drawing from historical AI ethical failures, the argument underscores the urgency of proactive and enforceable frameworks addressing bias, surveillance, and existential threats. The conclusion advocates for international coalitions that integrate diverse philosophical traditions and practical implementation strategies, (...) ensuring AI’s role as a force for global good. (shrink)

In a new study, Ben-Haim et al. use subliminal stimuli to separate conscious and unconscious perception in macaques. A programme of this type, using a range of cognitive tasks, is a promising way to look for conscious perception in more controversial cases.

Studying the neural correlates of conscious awareness depends on a reliable comparison between activations associated with awareness and unawareness. One particularly difficult confound to remove is task performance capacity, i.e. the difference in performance between the conditions of interest. While ideally task performance capacity should be matched across different conditions, this is difficult to achieve experimentally. However, differences in performance could theoretically be corrected for mathematically. One such proposal is found in a recent paper by Lamy, Salti and Bar-Haim (...) [Lamy D, Salti M, Bar-Haim Y. Neural correlates of subjective awareness and unconscious processing: an ERP study. J Cognitive Neurosci 2009,21:1435-46], who put forward a corrective method for an electroencephalography experiment. We argue that their analysis is essentially grounded in a version of High Threshold Theory, which has been shown to be inferior in general to Signal Detection Theory. We show through a series of computer simulations that their correction method only partially removes the influence of perfor- mance capacity, which can yield misleading results. We present a mathematical correction method based on Signal Detection Theory that is theoretically capable of removing performance capacity confounds. We discuss the limitations of mathemati- cally correcting for performance capacity confounds in imaging studies and its impact for theories about consciousness. (shrink)