Results for 'hindsight'

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  1. Hindsight bias is not a bias.Brian Hedden - 2019 - Analysis 79 (1):43-52.
    Humans typically display hindsight bias. They are more confident that the evidence available beforehand made some outcome probable when they know the outcome occurred than when they don't. There is broad consensus that hindsight bias is irrational, but this consensus is wrong. Hindsight bias is generally rationally permissible and sometimes rationally required. The fact that a given outcome occurred provides both evidence about what the total evidence available ex ante was, and also evidence about what that evidence (...)
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  2. Outcome Effects, Moral Luck and the Hindsight Bias.Markus Kneer & Iza Skoczeń - 2023 - Cognition 232.
    In a series of ten preregistered experiments (N=2043), we investigate the effect of outcome valence on judgments of probability, negligence, and culpability – a phenomenon sometimes labelled moral (and legal) luck. We found that harmful outcomes, when contrasted with neutral outcomes, lead to increased perceived probability of harm ex post, and consequently to increased attribution of negligence and culpability. Rather than simply postulating a hindsight bias (as is common), we employ a variety of empirical means to demonstrate that the (...)
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  3. Foresight and Hindsight.Mihai Nadin - unknown
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  4. Foresight AND Hindsight. Heinz von Foerster’s “The cause lies in the future.”.Mihai Nadin - manuscript
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  5. Four-sight in hindsight: The existence of magical numbers in vision.Ronald A. Rensink - 2001 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 24 (1):141-142.
    The capacity of visual attention/STM can be determined by change-detection experiments. Detecting the presence of change leads to an estimate of 4 items, while detecting the absence of change leads to an estimate of 1 item. Thus, there are two magical numbers in vision: 4 and 1. The underlying limits, however, are not necessarily those of central STM.
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    Towards Vitality Semiotics and a New Understanding of the Conditio Humana in Susanne K. Langer.Martina Sauer - 2023 - In Lona Gaikis (ed.), The Bloomsbury Handbook of Susanne K. Langer. London: Bloomsbury Handbooks. pp. 223-338.
    In hindsight, it is primarily Susanne K. Langer’s theory of act, and only secondarily her theory of art, that is central to the conception of Vitality Semiotics. It focuses on affective, semiotically relevant forms that constitute our world experience, human social interaction, and ultimately art experience. Thus, this somewhat unusual distinction between these two aspects of Langer’s work is not only important for art and our understanding of the world, but can also be seen as fundamental to social interaction (...)
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  7. REVIEW: « Anonymus Cantabrigiensis. Commentarium in Sophisticos Elenchos Aristotelis, Sten Ebbesen (ed.), Copenhagen, The Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters, 2019 », Vivarium, 59, 2021, p. 361-369. [REVIEW]Gazziero Leone - 2021 - Vivarium 59 (4):360-369.
    In hindsight, it is not surprising that the exegesis of Aristotle’s Sophistici elenchi developed into one of the most substantial parts of the Latin commentary tradition. To make a long story short, in its customary capacity as the art of arts and the science of sciences, medieval logic was primarily concerned with discerning the true from the false in arguments as they occur in natural, ordinary speech as opposed to the more formalised parlance later logicians will resort to. It (...)
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  8. Criteria for Attributing Predictive Responsibility in the Scientific Realism Debate: Deployment, Essentiality, Belief, Retention ….Timothy Lyons - 2009 - Human Affairs 19 (2):138-152.
    The most promising contemporary form of epistemic scientific realism is based on the following intuition: Belief should be directed, not toward theories as wholes, but toward particular theoretical constituents that are responsible for, or deployed in, key successes. While the debate on deployment realism is quite fresh, a significant degree of confusion has already entered into it. Here I identify five criteria that have sidetracked that debate. Setting these distractions aside, I endeavor to redirect the attention of both realists and (...)
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  9. Evidence and Bias.Nick Hughes - 2019 - In Maria Lasonen-Aarnio & Clayton Littlejohn (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of the Philosophy of Evidence. Routledge.
    I argue that evidentialism should be rejected because it cannot be reconciled with empirical work on bias in cognitive and social psychology.
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  10. Causal Fictionalism.Antony Eagle - 2024 - In Yafeng Shan (ed.), Alternative Philosophical Approaches to Causation: Beyond Difference-making and Mechanism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    Causation appears to present us with an interpretative difficulty. While arguably a redundant relation given fundamental physics, it is nevertheless apparently pragmatically indispensable. This chapter revisits certain arguments made previously by the author for these claims with the benefit of hindsight, starting with the role of causal models in the human sciences, and attempting to explain why it is not possible to straightforwardly ground such models in fundamental physics. This suggests that further constraints, going beyond physics, are needed to (...)
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  11. Responsible risking, forethought, and the case of germline gene editing.Madeleine Hayenhjelm - 2024 - In Adriana Placani & Stearns Broadhead (eds.), Risk and Responsbility in Context. New York and London: Routledge. pp. 149-169.
    This chapter addresses a general question: What is responsible risking? It explores the notion of "responsible risking" as a thick moral concept, and it argues that the notion can be given moral content that could be action-guiding and add an important tool to our moral toolbox. To impose risks responsibly, on this view, is to take on responsibility in a good way. A core part of responsible risking, this chapter argues, is some version of a Forethought Condition. Such a condition (...)
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  12. Apollonius Dyscolus and the ambiguity of ambiguity.Catherine Atherton - 1995 - Classical Quarterly 45 (2):441-473.
    Apollonius Dyscolus’ use of ambiguity in grammatical problem-solving has in recent years had the benefit of two scholarly studies. David Blank, in the course of his analysis of the Syntax as a whole, has described the broad functions which Apollonius assigns to ambiguity. Jean Lallot's 1988 paper, ‘Apollonius Dyscole et l'ambigüité linguistique: problemes et solutions’, is devoted exclusively to the treatment of linguistic ambiguity in Apollonius’ work. Yet it is to be feared that the flood of light thrown by these (...)
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  13. No-Regret Learning Supports Voters’ Competence.Petr Spelda, Vit Stritecky & John Symons - forthcoming - Social Epistemology:1-17.
    Procedural justifications of democracy emphasize inclusiveness and respect and by doing so come into conflict with instrumental justifications that depend on voters’ competence. This conflict raises questions about jury theorems and makes their standing in democratic theory contested. We show that a type of no-regret learning called meta-induction can help to satisfy the competence assumption without excluding voters or diverse opinion leaders on an a priori basis. Meta-induction assigns weights to opinion leaders based on their past predictive performance to determine (...)
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  14. No luck for moral luck.Markus Kneer & Edouard Machery - 2019 - Cognition 182 (C):331-348.
    Moral philosophers and psychologists often assume that people judge morally lucky and morally unlucky agents differently, an assumption that stands at the heart of the Puzzle of Moral Luck. We examine whether the asymmetry is found for reflective intuitions regarding wrongness, blame, permissibility, and punishment judg- ments, whether people’s concrete, case-based judgments align with their explicit, abstract principles regarding moral luck, and what psychological mechanisms might drive the effect. Our experiments produce three findings: First, in within-subjects experiments favorable to reflective (...)
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  15. Sakit ng Loob, Sakit ng Labas: Pagtutumbas sa mga Neolohismong Umusbong sa Kontemporanidad ng COVID-19 Tungo sa Pag-unawa ng Kasaysayan ng Ketong sa Patolohiyang Pilipino.Axle Christien Tugano - 2020 - Katipunan Journal 6 (1):132-181.
    This article aims to highlight the resounding issue regarding the pandemic caused by COVID-19 in the Philippines. In hindsight, it seems that contemporary Filipinos treat its spread as a new and first disease that our society has experienced. It only reflects the inexhaustible study of Filipino pathology. So there is a tendency for the Filipino government to tarnish or not take the future pandemic seriously because apart from the lack of knowledge about pandemics, it is possible that our society (...)
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  16. Reasonableness on the Clapham Omnibus: Exploring the outcome-sensitive folk concept of reasonable.Markus Kneer - 2022 - In P. Bystranowski, Bartosz Janik & M. Prochnicki (eds.), Judicial Decision-Making: Integrating Empirical and Theoretical Perspectives. Springer Nature. pp. 25-48.
    This paper presents a series of studies (total N=579) which demonstrate that folk judgments concerning the reasonableness of decisions and actions depend strongly on whether they engender positive or negative consequences. A particular decision is deemed more reasonable in retrospect when it produces beneficial consequences than when it produces harmful consequences, even if the situation in which the decision was taken and the epistemic circumstances of the agent are held fixed across conditions. This finding is worrisome for the law, where (...)
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  17. Retrieving the Mathematical Mission of the Continuum Concept from the Transfinitely Reductionist Debris of Cantor’s Paradise. Extended Abstract.Edward G. Belaga - forthcoming - International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics.
    What is so special and mysterious about the Continuum, this ancient, always topical, and alongside the concept of integers, most intuitively transparent and omnipresent conceptual and formal medium for mathematical constructions and the battle field of mathematical inquiries ? And why it resists the century long siege by best mathematical minds of all times committed to penetrate once and for all its set-theoretical enigma ? -/- The double-edged purpose of the present study is to save from the transfinite deadlock of (...)
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  18. Egoism, Labour, and Possession: A reading of “Interiority and Economy,” Section II of Lévinas' Totality of Infinity.Jacob Blumenfeld - 2014 - Journal of the British Society for Phenomenology 45 (2):107-117.
    Lévinas is the philosopher of the absolutely Other, the thinker of the primacy of the ethical relation, the poet of the face. Against the formalism of Kantian subjectivity, the totality of the Hegelian system, the monism of Husserlian phenomenology and the instrumentalism of Heideggerian ontology, Lévinas develops a phenomenological account of the ethical relation grounded in the idea of infinity, an idea which is concretely produced in the experience with the absolutely other, particularly, in their face. The face of the (...)
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  19. Diskriminierung und Verwerflichkeit. Huxleys Albtraum und die Rolle des Staates [Discrimination and wrongfulness: Huxley’s nightmare and the role of the state].Michael Oliva Córdoba - 2020 - Zeitschrift für Praktische Philosophie 7 (1):191-230.
    What is discrimination and what makes wrongful discrimination wrong? Even after an ever-rising tide of research over the course of the past twenty-five or so years these questions still remain hard to answer. Exercising candid and self-critical hindsight, Larry Alexander, who contributed his fair share to this tide, thus remarked: “All cases of discrimination, if wrongful, are wrongful either because of their quite contingent consequences or perhaps because they are breaches of promises or fiduciary duties.” If this is true (...)
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  20. Activating a Mental Simulation Mind-Set through Generation of Alternatives: Implications for Debiasing in Related and Unrelated Domains.Keith Markman, Edward Hirt & Frank Kardes - 2004 - Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 40 (3):374-383.
    Encouraging people to consider multiple alternatives appears to be a useful debiasing technique for reducing many biases (explanation, hindsight, and overconfidence), if the generation of alternatives is experienced as easy. The present research tests whether these alternative generation procedures induce a mental simulation mind-set (cf. Galinsky & Moskowitz, 2000), such that debiasing in one domain transfers to debias judgments in unrelated domains. The results indeed demonstrated that easy alternative generation tasks not only debiased judgments in the same domain but (...)
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  21. The Relation between Future State Maximization and von Foerster’s Ethical Imperative.Gordana Dodig-Crnkovic - 2020 - Constructivist Foundations 16 (1):062-064.
    I review von Foerster’s computational approach to cognition in relation to foresight and hindsight, and to his Ethical Imperative. For him, ethics must remain implicit and becomes manifest ….
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  22. Preparing undergraduates for visual analytics.Ronald A. Rensink - 2015 - IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications 35 (2):16-20.
    Visual analytics (VA) combines the strengths of human and machine intelligence to enable the discovery of interesting patterns in challenging datasets. Historically, most attention has been given to developing the machine component—for example, machine learning or the human-computer interface. However, it is also essential to develop the abilities of the analysts themselves, especially at the beginning of their careers. -/- For the past several years, we at the University of British Columbia (UBC)—with the support of The Boeing Company—have experimented with (...)
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  23. Militant Intolerant People: A Challenge to John Rawls' Political Liberalism.Vicente Medina - 2010 - Political Studies 58 (3):556-571.
    In this article, it is argued that a significant internal tension exists in John Rawls' political liberalism. He holds the following positions that might plausibly be considered incongruous: (1) a commitment to tolerating a broad right of freedom of political speech, including a right of subversive advocacy; (2) a commitment to restricting this broad right if it is intended to incite and likely to bring about imminent violence; and (3) a commitment to curbing this broad right only if there is (...)
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  24. Mental Simulation: Looking Back in Order to Look Ahead.Keith Markman & Elizabeth Dyczewski - 2013 - In Donal Carlston (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Social Cognition. Oxford University Press. pp. 402-416.
    Mental simulation refers to the imagination of alternative, counterfactual realities. This chapter provides an overview of research on simulations of the past— retrospective simulation—and simulations of the future— prospective simulation. Two major themes run throughout. The first is that both retrospective and prospective thinking are inextricably linked, relying on a mixture of episodic and semantic memories that share common neural substrates. The second is that retrospective and prospective simulation present trade-offs for the individual. On the one hand, they are functional, (...)
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  25. John Stuart-Glennie’s Lost Legacy.Eugene Halton - 2019 - In Christopher T. Conner, Nicholas M. Baxter & David R. Dickens (eds.), Forgotten Founders and Other Neglected Social Theorists. pp. 11-26.
    This chapter examines the lost legacy of John Stuart-Glennie (1841-1910), a contributor to the founding of sociology and a major theorist, whose work was known in his lifetime but disappeared after his death. Stuart-Glennie was praised by philosopher John Stuart Mill, was a friend of and influence upon playwright George Bernard Shaw, and was an active contributor to the fledgling Sociological Society in London in the first decade of the twentieth century. Stuart-Glennie’s most significant idea in hindsight was his (...)
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  26. Historical Judgement: The Limits of Historiographical Choice.Jonathan L. Gorman - 2007 - Mcgill-Queen's University Press.
    The historical profession is not noted for examining its own methodologies. Indeed, most historians are averse to historical theory. In "Historical Judgement" Jonathan Gorman's response to this state of affairs is to argue that if we want to characterize a discipline, we need to look to persons who successfully occupy the role of being practitioners of that discipline. So to model historiography we must do so from the views of historians. Gorman begins by showing what it is to model a (...)
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  27. Uncertainty, ‘irrational exuberance’ and the psychology of bubbles: an argument over the legitimacy of financial regulation for bounded rational agents.Ramiro Ávila Peres - 2019
    One of the explanations for the Great Crisis of 2007-2008 was that financial authorities should have issued stricter regulations to prevent the housing bubble. However, according to Alan Greenspan, President of the Federal Reserve System (FED) from 1987 to 2006, this is to judge with hindsight. No one can guess when a “bubble” begins, nor when it ends; they happen because of the “irrational exuberance” in investors’ behavior, which causes boom and bust cycles. Regulators are not in a better (...)
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  28. Reading, implementing and theorising global justice: on some recent work in the political philosophy of cosmopolitanism.Pavel Dufek - 2013 - Cosmopolis: A Review of Cosmopolitics 4 (4):84–98.
    In the last fifteen years or so, political philosophers have been increasingly busy nurturing their latest darling, global justice (hereinafter GJ). There are many reasons why justice, the centrepiece of much political theorising since the 1970s, has spilled beyond the confines of the (nation-)state – from certain inherent features of prominent philosophical accounts of justice to the seemingly morally arbitrary nature of state borders to the perceived or assumed effects of globalisation. In any case, the previously rather scattered reflections on (...)
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