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  1. The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life.Gerd Gigerenzer, Zeno Swijtink, Theodore Porter, Lorraine Daston, John Beatty & Lorenz Kruger - 1990 - Cambridge University Press.
    The Empire of Chance tells how quantitative ideas of chance transformed the natural and social sciences, as well as daily life over the last three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact in biology, physics and psychology. Themes recur - determinism, inference, causality, free will, evidence, the shifting meaning of probability - but (...)
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  • Can overconfidence be used as an indicator of reconstructive rather than retrieval processes?Peter Juslin, Anders Winman & Thomas Persson - 1995 - Cognition 54 (1):99-130.
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  • (1 other version)Ulysses and the Sirens: studies in rationality and irrationality.Jon Elster (ed.) - 1984 - Paris: Editions de la Maison des sciences de l'homme.
    This book was first published in 1984, as the revised edition of a 1979 original. The text is composed of studies in a descending sequence from perfect rationality, through imperfect and problematical rationality, to irrationality. Specifically human rationality is characterized by its capacity to relate strategically to the future, in contrast to the myopic 'gradient climbing' of natural selection. There is trenchant analysis of some of the parallels proposed in this connection between the biological and the social sciences. In the (...)
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  • Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky (eds.) - 1982 - Cambridge University Press.
    The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important...
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  • Ulysses and the Sirens: Studies in Rationality and Irrationality.Jon Elster - 1979 - Tijdschrift Voor Filosofie 48 (4):650-651.
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  • Rational choice and the structure of the environment.Herbert A. Simon - 1955 - Psychological Review 63 (2):129-138.
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  • Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology.Egon Brunswik - 1955 - Psychological Review 62 (3):193-217.
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  • (1 other version)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman - 1974 - Science 185 (4157):1124-1131.
    This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value (...)
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  • Decisions with Multiple Objectives.Ralph L. Keeney & Howard Raiffa - 1976 - New York: Wiley.
    This historic book may have numerous typos and missing text. Purchasers can usually download a free scanned copy of the original book (without typos) from the publisher. Not indexed. Not illustrated. 1873 edition. Excerpt:...but it does not follow that knowledge is not good. It is more needful that I should be a good Christian, than that I should be able to make good shoes. But this, too, is needful for one who is a shoemaker, and his Christianity is to show (...)
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  • On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky.Gerd Gigerenzer - 1996 - Psychological Review 103 (3):592-596.
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  • From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology.Gerd Gigerenzer - 1991 - Psychological Review 98 (2):254-267.
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  • Rationality and Dynamic Choice: Foundational Explorations. [REVIEW]Piers Rawling - 1996 - Philosophical Quarterly 46 (184):390-393.
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  • (1 other version)The expression of the emotions in man and animal.Charles Darwin - 1890 - Mineola, New York: Dover Publications. Edited by Francis Darwin.
    One of science's greatest intellects examines how people and animals display fear, anger, and pleasure. Darwin based this 1872 study on his personal observations, which anticipated later findings in neuroscience. Abounding in anecdotes and literary quotations, the book is illustrated with 21 figures and seven photographic plates. Its direct approach, accessible to professionals and amateurs alike, continues to inspire and inform modern research in psychology.
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  • How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats.Gerd Gigerenzer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 1995 - Psychological Review 102 (4):684-704.
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  • The reiteration effect in hindsight bias.Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 1997 - Psychological Review 104 (1):194-202.
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  • Rationality and Dynamic Choice: Foundational Explorations.Edward Francis McClennen - 1990 - Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
    This is a major contribution to the theory of rational choice which will be of particular interest to philosophers and economists. The author sets out the foundations of rational choice, and then sketches a dynamic choice framework in which principles of ordering and independence follow from a number of apparently plausible conditions. However, there is potential conflict among these conditions, and when they are weakened to avoid it the usual foundations of rational choice no longer prevail. The thrust of the (...)
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  • Reductionism, levels of organization, and the mind-body problem.William C. Wimsatt - 1975 - In Gordon G. Globus, Grover Maxwell & I. Savodnik (eds.), Consciousness and the Brain. Plenum Press.
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  • Analyzing the components of clinical inference.Kenneth R. Hammond, Carolyn J. Hursch & Frederick J. Todd - 1964 - Psychological Review 71 (6):438-456.
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  • Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence.Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage & Heinz Kleinbölting - 1991 - Psychological Review 98 (4):506-528.
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  • Unit weighting schemes for decision making.Hillel J. Einhorn & Robin M. Hogarth - 1975 - Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13 (2):171-192.
    The general problem of forming composite variables from components is prevalent in many types of research. A major aspect of this problem is the weighting of components. Assuming that composites are a linear function of their components, composites formed by using standard linear regression are compared to those formed by simple unit weighting schemes, i.e., where predictor variables are weighted by 1.0. The degree of similarity between the two composites, expressed as the minimum possible correlation between them, is derived. This (...)
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  • The taming of content: Some thoughts about domains and modules.Gerd Gigerenzer - 1995 - Thinking and Reasoning 1 (4):324 – 333.
    (1995). The taming of content: Some thoughts about domains and modules. Thinking & Reasoning: Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 324-333.
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  • The Rhetoric of Economics.Deirdre N. Mccloskey - 1986 - Brighton, Sussex : Wheatsheaf Books.
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  • Metrics and mappings: A framework for understanding real-world quantitative estimation.Norman R. Brown & Robert S. Siegler - 1993 - Psychological Review 100 (3):511-534.
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  • Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing.Joshua Klayman & Young-won Ha - 1987 - Psychological Review 94 (2):211-228.
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  • Cognitive dependence on linear and nonlinear cues.Kenneth R. Hammond & David A. Summers - 1965 - Psychological Review 72 (3):215-224.
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  • Relevance theory explains the selection task.D. Sperber - 1995 - Cognition 57 (1):31-95.
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  • Hierarchical organization in ordered domains: Estimating the dates of events.Janellen Huttenlocher, Larry Hedges & Vincent Prohaska - 1988 - Psychological Review 95 (4):471-484.
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