Gases reach equilibrium when left to themselves. Why do they behave in this way? The canonical answer to this question, originally proffered by Boltzmann, is that the systems have to be ergodic. This answer has been criticised on different grounds and is now widely regarded as flawed. In this paper we argue that some of the main arguments against Boltzmann's answer, in particular, arguments based on the KAM-theorem and the Markus-Meyer theorem, are beside the point. We then argue that something (...) close to Boltzmann's original proposal is true for gases: gases behave thermodynamic-like if they are epsilon-ergodic, i.e., ergodic on the entire accessible phase space except for a small region of measure epsilon. This answer is promising because there are good reasons to believe that relevant systems in statistical mechanics are epsilon-ergodic. (shrink)

In a recent paper, Jie Gao (Synthese 194:1901–17, 2017) has argued that there are acceptance-based counterexamples to the knowledge norm for practical reasoning (KPR). KPR tells us that we may only rely on known propositions in practical reasoning, yet there are cases of practical reasoning in which we seem to permissibly rely on merely accepted propositions, which fail to constitute knowledge. In this paper, I will argue that such cases pose no threat to a more broadly conceived knowledge-based view of (...) practical reasoning. I will first motivate the view that rational acceptance depends on a knowledge-based condition being met. I will then show how KPR can be amended—yielding what I call KPR+—to include this condition. I will argue that KPR+ not only avoids Gao’s counterexample, but harbours additional explanatory power by providing an account of the normative role of acceptance in practical reasoning. Finally, I will defend KPR+ against objections by employing theoretical tools that are readily available to those sympathetic to knowledge-based views. (shrink)

According to J=K, only beliefs that qualify as knowledge are epistemically justified. Traditionalists about justification have objected to this view that it predicts that radically deceived subjects do not have justified beliefs, which they take to be counter-intuitive. In response, proponents of J=K have argued that traditionalists mistake being justified with being excused in the relevant cases. To make this response work, Timothy Williamson has offered a dispositional account of excuse which has recently been challenged by Jessica Brown. She has (...) presented cases in which Williamson’s account excuses subjects believing things in an epistemically reckless fashion. To steer clear of Brown’s counterexamples, I argue for a modification of Williamson’s account that employs a more fine-grained notion of the dispositions involved. (shrink)

That we may rely on our knowledge seems like a platitude. Yet, the view that knowledge is sufficient for permissible reliance faces a major challenge: when much hangs on whether we know, relying on our knowledge seems to license irrational action. Unfortunately, extant proposals to meet this challenge (Hawthorne & Stanley, 2008; Williamson, 2005a; Schulz, 2017, 2021b) either fail to make the correct predictions about high-stakes cases or, as I will argue, face a substantial objection. In this paper, I will (...) offer two novel proposals for defending the sufficiency of knowledge for permissible reliance. My favoured proposal, which I call Flexible Fallibilism, is based on the idea that stakes can affect how we rely on our knowledge and how our knowledge determines what is rational for us to do. Besides making the correct predictions about high-stakes cases, I will argue that Flexible Fallibilism also provides us with a knowledge-based account of when to simplify our practical reasoning. Afterwards, I will present another proposal, which I call Dual Infallibilism, that combines two recent claims by Moss (2013, 2018) and Jackson (2019a) about credal knowledge and the metaphysics of doxastic states. While the offered proposals share various virtues, I will argue that we ultimately should prefer Flexible Fallibilism. (shrink)

Invention of artificial general intelligence is predicted to cause a shift in the trajectory of human civilization. In order to reap the benefits and avoid pitfalls of such powerful technology it is important to be able to control it. However, possibility of controlling artificial general intelligence and its more advanced version, superintelligence, has not been formally established. In this paper, we present arguments as well as supporting evidence from multiple domains indicating that advanced AI can’t be fully controlled. Consequences of (...) uncontrollability of AI are discussed with respect to future of humanity and research on AI, and AI safety and security. This paper can serve as a comprehensive reference for the topic of uncontrollability. (shrink)

Williams’s famous argument against immortality rests on the idea that immortality cannot be desirable, at least for human beings, and his contention has spawned a cottage industry of responses. As I will intend to show, the arguments over his view rest on both a difference of temperament and a difference in the sense of desire being used. The former concerns a difference in whether one takes a forward-looking or a backward-looking perspective on personal identity; the latter a distinction between our (...) normal desire to continue living and the kind of desire implied in desiring immortality. Showing that there is some sense of identity and desire that support Williams’s conclusion goes some way toward providing support for his argument, if not a full-fledged defense of it. (shrink)

Consider a gas confined to the left half of a container. Then remove the wall separating the two parts. The gas will start spreading and soon be evenly distributed over the entire available space. The gas has approached equilibrium. Why does the gas behave in this way? The canonical answer to this question, originally proffered by Boltzmann, is that the system has to be ergodic for the approach to equilibrium to take place. This answer has been criticised on different grounds (...) and is now widely regarded as flawed. In this paper we argue that these criticisms have dismissed Boltzmann’s answer too quickly and that something almost like Boltzmann’s answer is true: the approach to equilibrium takes place if the system is epsilon-ergodic, i.e. ergodic on the entire accessible phase space except for a small region of measure epsilon. We introduce epsilon-ergodicity and argue that relevant systems in statistical mechanics are indeed espsilon-ergodic. (shrink)

John Fischer has recently argued that the value of acting freely is the value of self-expression. Drawing on David Velleman’s earlier work, Fischer holds that the value of a life is a narrative value and free will is valuable insofar as it allows us to shape the narrative structure of our lives. This account rests on Fischer’s distinction between regulative control and guidance control. While we lack the former kind of control, on Fischer’s view, the latter is all that is (...) needed for self-expression. I first develop Fischer’s narrative account, focusing on his reliance on temporal loops as giving us control over the value of our lives. Second, I argue that the narrative account grants us greater power over the past than Fischer would allow: since narrative allows not only for changes in how we feel about episodes in our past but what those episodes in fact were, it allows for a kind of retroactive self-constitution. Finally, I suggest that this modification of the narrative view opens the possibility of a conception of freedom far stronger than guidance control. It does not give us the libertarian control over whether to choose A or B in the present, but it does provide a measure of control over the sort of person an agent has been, and thus whether she is the sort of person who will choose A or B in the future. (shrink)

Розглянуто природу взаємозв'язку між неправдою та легітимністю в організаційному контексті при здійсненні підприємницької діяльності. Визначено роль, яку відіграє легітимність у конкурентоспроможності суб'єктів підприємництва (особливо новостворених) на ринку, а також представлені стратегії реагування на її дефіцит. Обґрунтовано, що незважаючи на несумісність з фундаментальними основами легітимності, неправда здатна виступати для підприємницьких структур інструментом створення деякої подоби організаційної легітимності, що в свою чергу часто дає змогу заручитися підтримкою зацікавлених осіб (зокрема, інвесторів) та відкрити доступ до необхідних для розвитку бізнесу можливостей і ресурсів.

Heidegger, like Kierkegaard, has recently been claimed as a narrativist about selves. From this Heideggerian perspective, we can see how narrative expands upon the psychological view, adding a vital teleological dimension to the understanding of selfhood while denying the reductionism implicit in the psychological approach. Yet the narrative approach also inherits the neo-Lockean emphasis on the past as determining identity, whereas the self is fundamentally about the future. Death is crucial on this picture, not as allowing for the possibility of (...) a final meaning to our lives, but as determining Dasein as ‘pure unactualizable possibility.’ Ultimately, therefore, narrative is not what constitutes selfhood – but this does not mean that narrative is not relevant to personal identity, because narrative allows identity to be expressed in action. (shrink)

Авторами рассмотрены основные подходы к моделированию процесса принятия финансово- экономических решений в контексте учета поведенческого фактора соблюдения принятых со- циальных норм, что позволяет выйти за рамки классического представления о мотивации экономических агентов. Ключевые слова: социальная норма, моральные эмоции, экономико-математическое моделирование, процесс принятия решений, «теория игр».

Artikel zur Freiheitsschrift von John Stuart Mill.

Deliberation issues in decision, and so might be taken as a paradigmatic volitional activity. Character, on the other hand, may appear pre-volitional: the dispositions that constitute it provide the background against which decisions are made. Bernard Williams offers an intriguing picture of how the two may be connected via the concept of practical necessities, which are at once constitutive of character and deliverances of deliberation. Necessities are thus the glue binding character and the will, allowing us to take responsibility for (...) our characters. Intriguing though the picture may be, it did not receive a thorough elaboration in Williams’s work. My aim here is to work out and defend what I take to be the most valuable aspect of Williams’s view of agency: its model of the way character and the will can jointly determine agency through mutual constitution. However, I argue that Williams’s attempt to use this model to ground his attack on Kantian morality does not succeed, because the primacy Williams accords to character over the will cannot yield the appropriate kind of normative authority, even from the perspective of the agent. I urge that we retain Williams’s model of the interaction between character and the will, modified to allow the will an authority that is not derived from the necessity of character. (shrink)

A central question of environmental ethics remains one of how best to account for the intuitions generated by the Last Man scenarios; that is, it is a question of how to explain our experience of value in nature and, more importantly, whether that experience is justified. Seeking an alternative to extrinsic views, according to which nonhuman entities possess normative features that obligate us, I turn to constitutive views, which make value or whatever other limits nonhuman nature places on action dependent (...) on features intrinsic to human beings and constitutive of them or their obligations. After examining two kinds of constitutive views—environmental virtue ethics and Korsgaard’s Kantianism—I suggest an alternative that takes up the strengths of both while avoiding their shortcomings. On this view, we have an indirect obligation to experience nature as obligating us, although we have direct obligations only to human beings. (shrink)

The Ukrainian PFTS stock index volatility reaction as a whole and its constituent economic sectors (“Basic Materials”, “Financials”, “Industrials”, “Oil & Gas”, “Telecommunications”, “Utilities”) to seven non-monetary US information signals (“Consumer price index”, “Personal spending”, “Unemployment rate”, “Gross domestic product”, “Industrial production”, “Consumer confidence”, “Housing starts”) was carried out for the period 2000–2017 on the basis of closing stock quotations in the trading day format. To assess the “surprise” component direct influence nature of the USA selected non-monetary information signals on (...) the PFTS stock index, an AR-GARCH econometric modelling device was used. The results achieved clearly indicate the presence of some PFTS stock index economic sectors heterogeneous reaction to the United States individual non-monetary information signals announcement. For example, such economic sectors as “Basic Materials”, “Financials”, and “Oil & Gas” volatility response to the US non-monetary information signal “Consumer price index” “surprise” components the opposite of the overall PFTS stock index reaction. It can also be concluded that the United States non-monetary information signals influence on the Ukrainian stock market volatility depends not only on the financial cycle phase and data frequency, but also on the PFTS stock index economic sector. (shrink)

We argue that the Internet is, and is acting as, an EA because it shapes our belief systems, our worldviews. We explain key concepts for this discussion and provide illustrative examples to support our claims. Furthermore, we explain why recognising the Internet as an EA is important for Internet users and society in general. We discuss several ways in which the Internet influences the choices, beliefs, and attitudes of its users, and we compare this effect with those of psychological conditioning (...) and brainwashing techniques. Finally, we present examples where the Internet’s epistemic agency acts at scale, affecting large portions of society rather than individuals. (shrink)

Looking into the future is always a risky endeavour, but one way to anticipate the possible future shape of AI-driven societies is to examine the visionary works of some sci-fi writers. Not all sci-fi works have such visionary quality, of course, but some of Stanisław Lem’s works certainly do. We refer here to Lem’s works that explore the frontiers of science and technology and those that describe imaginary societies of robots. We therefore examine Lem’s prose, with a focus on the (...) Cyberiad stories, to see what challenges our future technological societies may face when they entrust their lives to AI technology. For example, what questions should we ask, and what questions do we forget to ask, when developing AI systems and allowing these systems to control our lives. The technologically honed minds of our current technocrats are perhaps too limited to guide us into this future, because AI-based technology is relatively unchartered territory, as any new, complex technology is by nature. Lem’s visions of future societies oriented around AI and robotics portray AI technology in a deeper and more nuanced way than the current technological visions offered by our leading technological prophets. Based on Lem’s visions, what is to come may not turn out to be an AI-driven nirvana. (shrink)

The digitalization of human society continues at a relentless rate. However, to develop modern information technologies, the increasing complexity of the real-world must be modeled, suggesting the general need to reconsider how to carry out conceptual modeling. This research proposes that the often-overlooked notion of ‘‘system’’ should be a separate, and core, conceptual modeling construct and argues for incorporating it and related concepts, such as emergence, into existing approaches to conceptual modeling. The work conducts a synthesis of the ontology of (...) systems and general systems theory. These modeling foundations are then used to propose a CESM+ template for conducing systems-grounded conceptual modeling. Several new conceptual modeling notations are introduced. The systemist modeling is then applied to a case study on the development of a citizen science platform. The case demonstrates the potential contributions of the systemist approach and identifies specific implications of explicit modeling with systems for theory and practice. The paper provides recommendations for how to incorporate systems into existing projects and suggests fruitful opportunities for future conceptual modeling research. (shrink)

Narrative views of agency and identity arise in opposition to reductionism in both domains. While reductionists understand both identity and agency in terms of their components, narrativists respond that life and action are both constituted by narratives, and since the components of a narrative gain their meaning from the whole, life and action not only incorporate their constituent parts but also shape them. I first lay out the difficulties with treating narrative as constitutive of metaphysical identity and turn to its (...) function in practical identity. I then explore the ways narrative shapes our agency—by tapping into our motivational structures, providing an understanding of the social background within which our agency operates, guiding our agency through an understanding of our histories and aspirations, providing the links that structure actions internally, and allowing us to change the meaning of our pasts. I suggest that putting these functions of narrative together may allow us to genuinely shape our past motivational structures through our actions. Finally, if life has the form of a narrative, it may seem as if mortality is necessary for our lives and their contents to be meaningful: a narrative, it might seem, relies on the ending for its meaning. If so, an immortal life would be meaningless. I examine the possibility that even an immortal life may draw meaning from local narratives that constitute projects within such a life, while arguing that, to the contrary, narrative may be a tool exclusively adapted to mortal lives. (shrink)

We find meaning and value in our lives by engaging in everyday projects. But, according to a recent argument by Samuel Scheffler, this value doesn’t depend merely on what the projects are about. In many cases, it depends also on the future generations that will replace us. By imagining the imminent extinction of humanity soon after our own deaths, we can recognize both that much of our current valuing depends on a background confidence in the ongoing survival of humanity and (...) that the survival and flourishing of those future generations matters to us. After presenting Scheffler’s argument, I will explore two twentieth century precursors—Hans Morgenthau and Simone de Beauvoir—before returning to Scheffler to see that his argument can not only show us why future generations matter, but it can also give us hope for immortality and a blueprint for embracing a changing future. (shrink)

Samuel Scheffler defends “The Afterlife Conjecture”: the view that the continued existence of humanity after our deaths—“the afterlife”—lies in the background of our valuing; were we to lose confidence in it, many of the projects we engage in would lose their meaning. The Afterlife Conjecture, in his view, also brings out the limits of our egoism, showing that we care more about yet unborn strangers than about personal survival. But why does the afterlife itself matter to us? Examination of Scheffler’s (...) second argument helps answer this question, thereby undermining his argument. Our concern for the afterlife involves bootstrapping: we care more about the afterlife than about personal survival precisely because the latter has such salient limits that our lives are structured by adaptation to mortality, and it is only because the afterlife does provide a measure of personal survival that it can give meaning to our projects. (shrink)

In light of some Gilles Deleuze’s texts in which he studies the stupidity and error problems, the conflict between heterodox investigations and traditional methods that The X-Files raises can be studied. One discovers that the reasons why Mulder wants to replace a kind of investigation with another and the process through which he performs this transformation are similar to the ones that work on Deleuze’s Images of Thought. Taking into account the impossibility of solving certain problems, which are usually understood (...) as empirical setbacks or insolvable by right, Mulder and Deleuze defend giving up the police method and the dogmatic image of thought, respectively, and searching for other possible structures that do enable them to face up to these problems. Although this non-detective, non-thinker condition must be crossed in order to solve them, this state that makes any supposedly universal method dubious is by the French thinker called "stupidity.". (shrink)

Some worry that advanced artificial agents may resist being shut down. The Incomplete Preferences Proposal (IPP) is an idea for ensuring that doesn't happen. A key part of the IPP is using a novel 'Discounted REward for Same-Length Trajectories (DREST)' reward function to train agents to (1) pursue goals effectively conditional on each trajectory-length (be 'USEFUL'), and (2) choose stochastically between different trajectory-lengths (be 'NEUTRAL' about trajectory-lengths). In this paper, we propose evaluation metrics for USEFULNESS and NEUTRALITY. We use a (...) DREST reward function to train simple agents to navigate gridworlds, and we find that these agents learn to be USEFUL and NEUTRAL. Our results thus suggest that DREST reward functions could also train advanced agents to be USEFUL and NEUTRAL, and thereby make these advanced agents useful and shutdownable. (shrink)

Original title: 「諸鳥会合シテ法世ヲ論ズ」『安藤昌益全集6巻』 [Opera completă a lui Andō Shōeki, vol. 6], Tōkyō: Nōsangyoson Bunka Kyōkai, 1997, 34–87).

Entropy is ubiquitous in physics, and it plays important roles in numerous other disciplines ranging from logic and statistics to biology and economics. However, a closer look reveals a complicated picture: entropy is defined differently in different contexts, and even within the same domain different notions of entropy are at work. Some of these are defined in terms of probabilities, others are not. The aim of this chapter is to arrive at an understanding of some of the most important notions (...) of entropy and to clarify the relations between them, After setting the stage by introducing the thermodynamic entropy, we discuss notions of entropy in information theory, statistical mechanics, dynamical systems theory and fractal geometry. (shrink)

Every higher education institution (HEI) needs to monitor the employability status of its graduates as this reflects the quality education that HEIs provide to their students. In this study, a retrospective approach was used to analyze the employment status of graduates of a state university in the Philippines from 2015 to 2019. A data mining procedure was adopted to obtain necessary data and analysis. It was hypothesized in the study that the employment rates are the same across programs per year. (...) Also, the employment rates from 2015 to 2019 are the same as the targeted employment rate in the strategic plan of the university. Statistical treatments such as mean, median, and standard deviation, Shapiro-Wilk test, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) were used to test the hypothesis. Results show that the employment rate of graduates of 2015-2019 is in the high-level category and significantly higher than the targeted employment rate in the university strategic plan. Similarly, findings show significant differences in the employability rates of graduates considering the programs they enrolled in. On the contrary, no significant difference in the employment rate of graduates per year graduated. The study concluded that the university is consistent in producing employable graduates. (shrink)

The young field of AI Safety is still in the process of identifying its challenges and limitations. In this paper, we formally describe one such impossibility result, namely Unpredictability of AI. We prove that it is impossible to precisely and consistently predict what specific actions a smarter-than-human intelligent system will take to achieve its objectives, even if we know terminal goals of the system. In conclusion, impact of Unpredictability on AI Safety is discussed.

Artikel zur Kriegsphilosophie des Militärtheoretikers Carl von Clausewitz.

Авторами розглянуто вплив провідних світових кредитних рейтингових агентств на фінансову безпеку емітентів цінних паперів. Обґрунтовано перформативний характер діяльності кредитних рейтингових агентств з позицій моделі «Les economies de la grandeur» нового соціологічного французького інституціоналізму, що дає змогу розв’язати протиріччя щодо сильної опозиції стосовно їх функціонування з одночасним збереженням діючої системи нормативного використання кредитних рейтингів.

One of the primary, if not most critical, difficulties in the design and implementation of autonomous systems is the black-boxed nature of the decision-making structures and logical pathways. How human values are embodied and actualised in situ may ultimately prove to be harmful if not outright recalcitrant. For this reason, the values of stakeholders become of particular significance given the risks posed by opaque structures of intelligent agents (IAs). This paper explores how decision matrix algorithms, via the belief-desire-intention model for (...) autonomous vehicles, can be designed to minimize the risks of opaque architectures. Primarily through an explicit orientation towards designing for the values of explainability and verifiability. In doing so, this research adopts the Value Sensitive Design (VSD) approach as a principled framework for the incorporation of such values within design. VSD is recognized as a potential starting point that offers a systematic way for engineering teams to formally incorporate existing technical solutions within ethical design, while simultaneously remaining pliable to emerging issues and needs. It is concluded that the VSD methodology offers at least a strong enough foundation from which designers can begin to anticipate design needs and formulate salient design flows that can be adapted to the changing ethical landscapes required for utilisation in autonomous vehicles. (shrink)

To hold developers responsible, it is important to establish the concept of AI ownership. In this paper we review different obstacles to ownership claims over advanced intelligent systems, including unexplainability, unpredictability, uncontrollability, self-modification, AI-rights, ease of theft when it comes to AI models and code obfuscation. We conclude that it is difficult if not impossible to establish ownership claims over AI models beyond a reasonable doubt.

The stronger the level of economic integration between countries, the greater the need to study the formation patterns of the stock market reaction to the financial information signals. This concerns the Ukrainian stock market, which is now in its infancy, and which reaction to financial information signals is sometimes ambiguous. The research aims to identify the formation patterns of return and volatility indicators of the Ukrainian stock market reaction to the US financial information signals. To assess the direct nature of (...) US financial information signals effect on the PFTS stock index, the GARCH econometric modeling toolkit was applied. The research information base is the PFTS stock index and the Federal Reserve System financial information signals at the discount rate for 2000–2019. The fetch is divided into intervals corresponded to the ascent and decline phases of the financial cycle. It was found that an unforeseen increase in the discount rate at the financial cycle decline phase by 25 basis points decreases the PFTS stock index return, on average by 2.9%. Besides, the hypothesis about the general change stabilizing effect in the discount rate on the Ukrainian stock market volatility at the financial cycle growth phase was confirmed. Nevertheless, for investors, the most essential is the regulator’s monetary signals in the discount rate at the financial cycle decline phases rather than at the ascent phases because there is a more significant increase in the volatility level. (shrink)

Character and the will are rarely discussed together. At most, philosophers working on the one mention the other in an eliminativist vein—if character is represented as something chosen, for example, it can be chalked up to the work of the will; if the will consists merely of a certain arrangement of mental states, it can be seen as little more than a manifestation of character. This mutual neglect appears perfectly justified. If both character and will are determinants of action, to (...) treat them separately would be to overdetermine agency at best, and at worst to fragment it. While defending this reasoning, I argue that things are not so simple, because character and will serve distinct explanatory and normative functions, respectively. The difference in function, however, does not prove that character and will must be ontologically distinct sources of agency; only that our discourse about them must keep them apart. (shrink)

By the end of his life Plato had rearranged the theory of ideas into his teaching about ideal numbers, but no written records have been left. The Ideal mathematics of Plato is present in all his dialogues. It can be clearly grasped in relation to the effective use of mathematical modelling. Many problems of mathematical modelling were laid in the foundation of the method by cutting the three-level idealism of Plato to the single-level “ideism” of Aristotle. For a long time, (...) the real, ideal numbers of Plato’s Ideal mathematics eliminates many mathematical problems, extends the capabilities of modelling, and improves mathematics. (shrink)

Explainability and comprehensibility of AI are important requirements for intelligent systems deployed in real-world domains. Users want and frequently need to understand how decisions impacting them are made. Similarly it is important to understand how an intelligent system functions for safety and security reasons. In this paper, we describe two complementary impossibility results (Unexplainability and Incomprehensibility), essentially showing that advanced AIs would not be able to accurately explain some of their decisions and for the decisions they could explain people would (...) not understand some of those explanations. (shrink)

Terms Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Human-Level Artificial Intelligence (HLAI) have been used interchangeably to refer to the Holy Grail of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research, creation of a machine capable of achieving goals in a wide range of environments. However, widespread implicit assumption of equivalence between capabilities of AGI and HLAI appears to be unjustified, as humans are not general intelligences. In this paper, we will prove this distinction.

Artificially Intelligent (AI) systems have ushered in a transformative era across various domains, yet their inherent traits of unpredictability, unexplainability, and uncontrollability have given rise to concerns surrounding AI safety. This paper aims to demonstrate the infeasibility of accurately monitoring advanced AI systems to predict the emergence of certain capabilities prior to their manifestation. Through an analysis of the intricacies of AI systems, the boundaries of human comprehension, and the elusive nature of emergent behaviors, we argue for the impossibility of (...) reliably foreseeing some capabilities. By investigating these impossibility results, we shed light on their potential implications for AI safety research and propose potential strategies to overcome these limitations. (shrink)

Відсутність точної відповіді на питання щодо появи тих або інших соціально-етичних норм може частково пояснити чому моделі соціальних переваг часто розглядаються як ad hoc (в тому сенсі, що висновки, які отримуються в рамках таких моделей, безпосередньо ґрунтуються на висунутих в таких моделях особливих припущеннях), а формалізація моделювання процесів економічної поведінки часто співвідноситься з існуванням певної норми економічної поведінки в контексті досягнення рівноважного стану.

Розглянуто теоретико-методологічні основи прогнозування валютних курсів на ринку Forex. Визначено особливості діяльності на ринку Forex та його переваги і недоліки серед інших валютних ринків. Розкрито сутність прогнозування в цілому та основні проблеми у прогнозуванні. Розглянуто основні методи прогнозування валютних курсів на ринку Forex та ступінь їх використання.

Цель. Работа посвящена определению характерных особенностей влияния экономических информационных сигналов США посредством каналов трансмиссии на компоненты декомпозиции избыточной доходности украинского рынка акций (на примере репрезентативного фондового индекса ПФТС). Методика. Для выявления параметров изменений избыточной доходности биржевого рынка акций Украины в реакциях на экономические информационные сигналы было применено векторное авторегрессионное моделирование. Выбор модели VAR (3) был обоснован согласно информационным критериям AIC и SIC. Результаты. В работе установлено, что лишь переменная избыточной доходности (с лагом 3) позволяет прогнозировать определенную долю будущих изменений доходности (...) фондового индекса ПФТС. Тем не менее, коэффициент R² показывает, что задействованные переменные могут объяснить лишь около 7% изменения избыточной доходности фондового индекса ПФТС, что подтверждает достаточно низкую прогнозируемость украинского рынка акций. На основе декомпозиции избыточной доходности фондового индекса ПФТС за период 2000-2017 гг. (формат торгового дня) было выявлено, что рынок акций Украины является чувствительным к информационным сигналам по будущей избыточной доходности, поскольку более 89% от общего ее изменения можно объяснить влиянием непосредственно через канал премии за риск. Также установлено наличие влияния макроэкономического информационного сигнала США «Индекс доверия потребителей» на избыточную доходность украинского фондового индекса ПФТС через канал премии за риск, что подтверждает предположение о том, что «эффект неожиданности» макроэкономических сигналов США может быть фактором риска для рынка акций Украины. Научная новизна. Получил свое развитие методический подход по определению параметров реакции компонент избыточной доходности фондового индекса ПФТС на «эффект неожиданности» информационного содержание макроэкономических сигналов США. Практическая значимость. Использование приведенного методического подхода позволит улучшить точность финансового прогнозирования параметров реакции ценовых котировок отечественного рынка акций на обнародование макроэкономических информационных сигналов США, что даст возможность инвесторам (частным и институциональным) повысить доходность собственных инвестиционных стратегий. (shrink)

Der Aufsatz ist ein leicht modifizierter Nachdruck aus: K. Donhauser, L. M. Eichinger (Hrsg.), Deutsche Grammatik - Thema mit Variationen, Verlag C. Winter, Heidelberg 1998, S. 215-221.

Many researchers have conjectured that the humankind is simulated along with the rest of the physical universe – a Simulation Hypothesis. In this paper, we do not evaluate evidence for or against such claim, but instead ask a computer science question, namely: Can we hack the simulation? More formally the question could be phrased as: Could generally intelligent agents placed in virtual environments find a way to jailbreak out of them. Given that the state-of-the-art literature on AI containment answers in (...) the affirmative (AI is uncontainable in the long-term), we conclude that it should be possible to escape from the simulation, at least with the help of superintelligent AI. By contraposition, if escape from the simulation is not possible, containment of AI should be, an important theoretical result for AI safety research. Finally, the paper surveys and proposes ideas for hacking the simulation and analyzes ethical and philosophical issues of such an undertaking. (shrink)

Tytuły dzieł literackich są ważnym elementem makrotekstu, nie mówiąc już o ich znaczeniu marketingowym. W artykule poddano krytycznej analizie nie tylko izomorficzne tłumaczenia tytułów, ale także – a nawet w większości – te, gdzie widoczne są mniejsze czy większe rozbieżności. I tak np. za pozornie dosłownym tłumaczeniem tytułu powieści Jerzego Andrzejewskiego Apelacja jako Appelation kryje się trafny wybór między Appelation a Berufung. Również tłumaczenie powieści Stefana Żeromskiego Wierna rzeka jako Der getreue Strom nie jest łatwe w ocenie. Z jednej strony (...) tytułowa rzeka to w rzeczywistości raczej rzeczka, natomiast der Strom oznacza dużą rzekę z ujściem do morza. Czy jednak punktem odniesienia ma być rzeczywistość faktograficzna, czy raczej rzeczywistość literacka? Osobnym problemem jest tłumaczenie imion własnych – antroponimicznych i topograficznych. Dużo miejsca poświęcono też relacjom interkulturowym. Przykładem może być tłumaczenie Imienin pana dyrektora jako Der Geburtstag des Direktors – jest ono zasadne, gdyż w niemieckiej rzeczywistości kulturowej imieniny nie są tak zakorzenione jak urodziny. (shrink)

Авторами рассмотрены основные подходы к моделированию процесса принятия финансово- экономических решений в контексте учета поведенческого фактора соблюдения принятых социальных норм, что позволяет выйти за рамки классического представления о мотивации экономических агентов. Ключевые слова: социальная норма, моральные эмоции, экономико-математическое моделирование, процесс принятия решений, «теория игр».

This paper proposes a new classification algorithm for the partitioning of a conceptual space. All the algorithms which have been used until now have mostly been based on the theory of Voronoi diagrams. This paper proposes an approach based on potential theory, with the criteria for measuring similarities between objects in the conceptual space being based on the Newtonian potential function. The notion of a fuzzy prototype, which generalizes the previous definition of a prototype, is introduced. Furthermore, the necessary conditions (...) that a natural concept must meet are discussed. Instead of convexity, as proposed by Gärdenfors, the notion of geodesically convex sets is used. Thus, if a concept corresponds to a set which is geodesically convex, it is a natural concept. This definition applies, for example, if the conceptual space is an Euclidean space. As a by-product of the construction of the algorithm, an extension of the conceptual space to d-dimensional Riemannian manifolds is obtained. (shrink)

В статье рассмотрена деятельность ведущих кредитных рейтинговых агентств (Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investors Service и Standard & Poor's) в контексте снижения информационной ценности кредитных рейтингов, которые они присваивают, и сохранения доминирующих позиций на рынке финансового рейтингования. Целью исследования является рассмотрение деятельности кредитных рейтинговых агентств в измерении социального конструкционизма в процессе осуществления государственной финансовой политики, объясняя сопротивление регулятивной модели их деятельности многочисленным вызовам и переменам. Подход новой институциональной социологии в управлении мы сделали чувствительным к проблематике институциональных изменений во времени. Таким образом, мы (...) высказались за трактовку вопроса о неизменности организации деятельности КРА в соответствии с условиями нового социологического институционализма. То есть, дается приоритет когнитивной основе институтов, служащей поддержкой конкретного проявления социального порядка и дающей отличный способ для его понимания. (shrink)

General ontology is a prominent theoretical foundation for information technology analysis, design, and development. Ontology is a branch of philosophy which studies what exists in reality. A widely used ontology in information systems, especially for conceptual modeling, is the BWW (Bunge–Wand–Weber), which is based on ideas of the philosopher and physicist Mario Bunge, as synthesized by Wand and Weber. The ontology was founded on an early subset of Bunge’s philosophy; however, many of Bunge’s ideas have evolved since then. An important (...) question, therefore, is: do the more recent ideas expressed by Bunge call for a new ontology? In this paper, we conduct an analysis of Bunge’s earlier and more recent works to address this question. We present a new ontology based on Bunge’s later and broader works, which we refer to as Bunge’s Systemist Ontology (BSO). We then compare BSO to the constructs of BWW. The comparison reveals both considerable overlap between BSO and BWW, as well as substantial differences. From this comparison and the initial exposition of BSO, we provide suggestions for further ontology studies and identify research questions that could provide a fruitful agenda for future scholarship in conceptual modeling and other areas of information technology. (shrink)