The challenges of the Anthropocene are growing ever more complex and uncertain, underpinned by the emergence of systemic risks. At the same time, the landscape of risk governance has become compartmentalised and siloed, characterized by non-overlapping activities, competing scientific discourses, and distinct responsibilities distributed across diverse public and private bodies. Operating across scales and disciplines, actors tend to work in silos which constitute critical gaps within the interface of science, policy, and practice. Yet, increasingly complex and ‘wicked’ problems require (...) holistic solutions, multi-scalar communication, coordination, collaboration, data interoperability, funding, and stakeholder engagement. To address these problems in a real-world context, we present the Risk-Tandem framework for bridging theory and practice; to guide and structure the integration of disaster risk management (DRM), climate change adaptation (CCA) and systemic risk management through a process of transdisciplinary knowledge co-production. Advancing the frontiers of knowledge in this regard, The Risk-Tandem framework combines risk management approaches and tools with iterative co-production processes as a cornerstone of its implementation, in efforts to promote the co-design of fit-for-purpose solutions, methods and approaches contributing toward strengthened risk governance alongside stakeholders. The paper outlines how the framework is developed, applied, and further refined within selected case study regions, including Denmark, Germany, Italy and the Danube Region. (shrink)

This abstract summarizes, in essence, what generative AI means to the insurance industry. The kind of promise generated AI offers to insurance is huge: in risk assessment, customer experience, and operational efficiency. Natural disaster impact, financial market volatility, and cyber threat are augmented with techniques of real time scenario generation and modeling as well as predictive simulation based on synthetic data. One of the challenges that stand in the way of deploying these AI methods, however, is data privacy, (...) model reliability and interpretability. The insurance industry must address these issues if it is to comply with regulations like GDPR and CCPA or mitigate reputational risks, as anybody can make complaints about any company based on any perceived data breach. Indeed, generative AI models, often convoluted and biased, can propagate unfair outcomes, especially in pricing and policy access. Navigating these challenges requires a whole new frayed society of AI specialists in collaboration with the industry’s insurers to offer bespoke solutions that address the firm’s needs. Based on this work, future developments will center on designing and implementing ethical and regulatory frameworks around AI-driven decisions that are transparent, fair and sustainable. Generative AI has historically been the most feared phenomenon in the history of western civilization, but with predictive analytics and risk simulation capabilities taking shape, generative AI is set to disrupt the insurance industry and add real-time decision support, automating claims processing and personalized interaction. To successfully integrate generative AI, technical, ethical and regulatory challenges will need to be addressed, and a trust-driven ecosystem will emerge to serve evolving customer needs. (shrink)

Recent scholarship on climate and conflict has increasingly examined the dynamic relationship between environmental scarcities and geopolitical tensions. Overall, climate-related shocks often lead to escalated disputes over natural resources, thus positioning climate hazards not only as an environmental issue but also as a catalyst that intensifies existing geopolitical and social frictions. The discourse on climate and conflict has mostly centred on its direct effects on natural resources and environmental conditions. However, its role in precipitating conflicts underscores the critical need to (...) incorporate climate considerations within broader security and policy frameworks. In recent decades, one of the most compelling developments in this field is the inclusion of environmental issues within the security paradigm. Environmental degradation, global warming, and climate change are now recognized as critical threats that transcend national borders, impacting personal, national, and international security . These factors have broadened our comprehension of the relationships among environmental transformation, conflict, and vulnerability, and have highlighted the importance of conservation and sustainable development in fostering peace, stability, and human security. Despite the increased attention on climate in conflict and security studies, the mechanisms through which an environmental catastrophe, or the threat of it, gets securitized in conflict remain under investigated. Understanding how these threats are framed and leveraged by conflicting parties can provide critical insights into the intersection of environmental risks and geopolitical strategies, thereby enriching the discourse on environmental security and conflict dynamics. Most case studies focus on the securitization of natural resources, such as water in the Nile and Indus basins, concentrating on resource scarcity rather than potential catastrophes. Additionally, research on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and domestic politics in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands shows how framing environmental threats as national security issues can influence power dynamics and foster global action. However, these cases suggest that previous research has predominantly investigated how states strategically employ environmental narratives within the framework of national security for political and economic advantages, often in contexts removed from direct conflict scenarios. Moreover, much of the discussion on environmental securitization has focused on state-centric perspectives and inter-state conflicts. This emphasis on state actions, both in domestic and international arenas, has left a significant gap concerning the weaponization of environmental threats by non-state actors within ongoing conflicts. In that sense, the contribution of my thesis is twofold. First, it analyzes the weaponization of a looming environmental catastrophe within a conflict setting. Second, it focuses on a case where non-state actors, specifically the Houthis, are primary securitization actors. More specifically, my thesis addresses the existing gap in the literature by analysing the case of the FSO Safer, a deteriorating oil storage tanker moored off the coast of Yemen. Before the United Nations’ successful offloading plan, the tanker held over one million barrels of crude oil, posing a significant risk of massive ecological and economic damage due to its poor condition and lack of maintenance since the onset of the Yemeni conflict. Despite the imminent threat of an ecological disaster, the conflicting parties in Yemen – the Houthis and the internationally recognized government – have used the Safer as a bargaining chip rather than prioritizing immediate remedial action. This has put the entire region in a state of suspense, with the potential for disastrous oil leakage that could impact the Red Sea's marine ecosystems and the broader geopolitical stability. The FSO Safer crisis has directly inspired the research question of this study, highlighting the need to understand the strategic use of environmental threats in geopolitical conflicts. This crisis vividly illustrates how impending ecological disasters are not solely managed as environmental or humanitarian issues but are intricately woven into the fabric of international security and conflict negotiation strategies. It prompts critical inquiries into how and why such existential threats are leveraged by involved parties to advance their geopolitical agendas. Therefore, the research question formulated for this study is: How are environmental threats utilized as strategic tools in geopolitical conflicts? (shrink)

Democracy in its currently dominant liberal form has proven supportive of unprecedented human flourishing. However, it also appears increasingly plagued by political polarization, strained to cope with the digitalization of the political discourse, and threatened by authoritarian backlash. A growing sense of the anthropic risks—with runaway climate change as the leading example—thus often elicits concern regarding democracy’s capability of mitigating them. Apparently, lacking a sufficient degree of the citizens’ consensus on the priority issues of the day, it can find itself (...) unable to muster the resolve and resources necessary to alter its “business as usual” path even where disasters loom ever larger in its track. Against these concerns, I argue that democracy’s potential remains far from depleted. While political irrationality needs to be considered a major obstacle to successfully managing the anthropic risks, many existing reform proposals appear capable of reining it in. My main suggestion is to seek ways to facilitate a speedier and more effective exploration of the landscape of the possible democratic mechanisms of collective choice. A virtual platform to support such an exploration—which I call ‘democracy’s digital playground’—may allow us to find innovative ways of managing anthropic risks without compromising our commitment to democratic values. (shrink)

Ein Gespräch mit Cornelia Ulbert zur Governance von Risiken zwischen wissenschaftlicher Analyse und politischer Aushandlung. Die Fragen stellte Karsten Schubert.

The Importance of Urban Planning and Strict Laws on Informal Settlements -/- Introduction -/- Urbanization is a global phenomenon, bringing both opportunities and challenges. Rapid population growth, especially in developing nations, has led to the rise of informal settlements or “squatter areas.” These settlements often lack proper infrastructure, sanitation, and legal recognition, creating social, economic, and environmental issues. Effective urban planning, combined with strict enforcement of land-use laws and inclusive housing policies, is essential to ensuring sustainable and livable cities. This (...) essay explores the importance of urban planning and strict laws against illegal settlements, using successful case studies from Singapore, Brazil, South Korea, the Philippines, and Ethiopia. -/- The Role of Urban Planning in Sustainable Cities -/- Urban planning is the process of designing and regulating the use of land to ensure the orderly development of cities. Proper urban planning provides essential services such as housing, transportation, sanitation, and green spaces, preventing the formation of illegal settlements. -/- Key Aspects of Effective Urban Planning -/- 1. Zoning Regulations – Defining areas for residential, commercial, and industrial use helps prevent uncontrolled development. -/- 2. Infrastructure Development – Roads, drainage, sewage systems, and utilities must be planned in advance to accommodate future growth. -/- 3. Disaster Risk Management – Cities must prevent settlements in flood-prone or hazardous areas to minimize risks to human life. -/- 4. Affordable Housing Programs – Governments should provide legal, affordable alternatives to illegal settlements. -/- Without proper urban planning, cities face overcrowding, pollution, poor sanitation, and increased crime rates. Case studies from different countries demonstrate the effectiveness of strong urban policies in addressing informal settlements. -/- Case Studies: Successful Urban Planning and Settlement Control -/- 1. Singapore: A Model for Integrated Public Housing -/- Singapore transformed from a city with severe housing shortages in the 1960s into one of the most well-planned urban environments in the world. The government’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) played a crucial role in developing affordable, high-quality public housing with integrated amenities such as schools, parks, and public transportation. -/- Key Strategies: ✔ Strict zoning laws prevented unregulated settlements. ✔ Homeownership was promoted through subsidized housing loans. ✔ Government-planned townships provided complete services. -/- Results: ✔ Over 80% of Singaporeans now live in well-planned public housing. ✔ Illegal settlements have been completely eliminated. -/- Singapore’s success demonstrates how strict land-use policies combined with affordable housing programs can prevent informal settlements. -/- 2. Brazil: Upgrading Informal Settlements Instead of Evictions -/- Rio de Janeiro faced a severe problem with favelas—informal settlements that grew due to rapid urban migration. Instead of mass evictions, the government launched the Favela-Bairro program (1994-2008), improving living conditions rather than displacing people. -/- Key Strategies: ✔ Infrastructure improvements (roads, sanitation, electricity). ✔ Community engagement ensured residents’ needs were met. ✔ Legal property rights were granted to residents. -/- Results: ✔ Over 250,000 residents benefited from improved housing conditions. ✔ Crime and poverty rates declined as favelas were integrated into the formal city. -/- Brazil’s approach shows that slum upgrading can be a viable alternative to forced eviction, improving both human welfare and urban order. -/- 3. South Korea: Urban Renewal in Seoul (Cheonggyecheon Project) -/- Seoul’s Cheonggyecheon River was once covered by illegal settlements and highways. The government removed the informal settlements, revitalizing the area into a public green space. -/- Key Strategies: ✔ Slum clearance and restoration of natural spaces. ✔ Improved public transport (bus rapid transit) reduced congestion. ✔ Business relocation incentives prevented economic disruption. -/- Results: ✔ 35% reduction in air pollution, making Seoul more livable. ✔ Increased property values and economic growth. -/- This case highlights how urban renewal projects can enhance sustainability, public health, and economic opportunities while addressing informal settlements. -/- 4. The Philippines: Housing and Resettlement Programs -/- Metro Manila faces a long-standing issue of informal settlers occupying flood-prone and government-owned areas. The Philippine government introduced various strategies, including in-city relocation, socialized housing, and land clearing operations. -/- Key Strategies: ✔ Balik Probinsya, Bagong Pag-asa (BP2) Program: Encouraged migration from overcrowded cities with financial aid. ✔ Vertical housing solutions: High-rise social housing projects maximized limited land. ✔ Land clearing operations: Removed settlements from hazardous areas. -/- Results: ✔ Some success in decongesting Metro Manila, but rapid urban migration remains a challenge. ✔ Affordable housing remains a priority for sustainable urban development. -/- The Philippines’ experience shows that a combination of enforcement and social programs is necessary to manage informal settlements effectively. -/- 5. Ethiopia: Large-Scale Public Housing (Addis Ababa’s Condominium Program) -/- Ethiopia faced a housing crisis, with 70% of Addis Ababa’s population living in informal settlements. The government launched a large-scale condominium housing program to address the issue. -/- Key Strategies: ✔ Government-built high-rise condominiums replaced slums. ✔ Low-interest loans made homeownership possible for low-income families. ✔ Priority was given to families displaced by urban renewal projects. -/- Results: ✔ Significant reduction in slums as many moved into formal housing. ✔ Homeownership increased, improving living conditions. -/- Ethiopia’s approach highlights how government-led mass housing projects can transform urban development. -/- Lessons from Successful Urban Planning -/- 1. Strict Land-Use Laws Prevent Slums from Forming ✔ Clearly defining residential, commercial, and public spaces prevents illegal occupation. -/- 2. Affordable Housing is Essential ✔ Governments must provide low-cost housing as a legal alternative to informal settlements. -/- 3. Upgrading Slums Can Be More Effective Than Evictions ✔ Programs like Favela-Bairro (Brazil) and Ethiopia’s condominium projects show that improving existing settlements works better than forced displacement. -/- 4. Technology Can Help Monitor and Prevent Illegal Settlements ✔ GIS mapping and AI tracking can detect unauthorized land occupation. ✔ E-governance systems can simplify property registration and land-use approvals. -/- 5. Community Engagement is Critical ✔ Urban planning must involve local residents to ensure sustainability and social acceptance. -/- 6. Economic and Livelihood Programs Reduce Informal Settlements ✔ Job creation, microfinance, and small business support help low-income families transition into formal housing. -/- Conclusion -/- Urban planning and strict laws against informal settlements are crucial for creating sustainable, safe, and prosperous cities. Case studies from Singapore, Brazil, South Korea, the Philippines, and Ethiopia demonstrate that a balanced approach—combining strict enforcement, affordable housing, and community-driven solutions—leads to long-term success. Governments worldwide must prioritize sustainable housing, infrastructure development, and urban regulations to ensure that growing populations are accommodated in a way that promotes both human dignity and urban order. -/- By learning from successful models and implementing proactive urban policies, cities can prevent slums, improve living conditions, and build a more sustainable future for all. -/- . (shrink)

Complex systems are difficult to manage, operate and maintain. This is why we see teams of highly specialised engineers in industries such as aerospace, nuclear and subsurface. Condition based monitoring is also employed to maximise the efficiency of extensive maintenance programmes instead of using periodic maintenance. A level of automation is often required in such complex engineering platforms in order to effectively and safely manage them. Advances in Artificial Intelligence related technologies have offered greater levels of automation but this potentially (...) pivots the weight of decision making away from the operator to the machine. Implementing AI or complex algorithms into a platform can mean that the Operators’ control over the system is diminished or removed altogether. For example, in the Boeing 737 Air Max Disaster, AI had been added to a platform and removed the operators’ control of the system. This meant that the operator could not then move outside the extremely reserved, algorithm defined, “envelope” of operation. This paper analyses the challenges of AI driven condition based monitoring where there is a potential to see similar consequences to those seen in control engineering. As the future of society becomes more about algorithm driven technology, it is prudent to ask, not only whether we should implement AI into complex systems, but how this can be achieved ethically and safely in order to reduce risk to life. (shrink)

Because of advanced automation, data exchange, and cyber-physical systems, traditional project risk management strategies are losing their effectiveness in the era of Industry 4.0. This study investigates how integrating Industry 4.0 technology into project risk management frameworks can have real-world implications. Using technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT), it proposes a new framework that enhances risk identification, assessment, and mitigation methods. In order to demonstrate how Industry 4.0 (...) is transforming risk management practices, this article examines real-world case studies and industry implementations. The framework addresses significant opportunities and challenges to provide practitioners with useful insights for adapting to the evolving technological context. The findings suggest that incorporating Industry 4.0 technologies can significantly improve risk management efficiency and project outcomes, offering a pathway for organizations to navigate the complexities of modern project environments. (shrink)

Accelerating global climate change drives new climate risks. People around the world are researching, designing, and implementing strategies to manage these risks. Identifying and implementing sound climate risk management strategies poses nontrivial challenges including (a) linking the required disciplines, (b) identifying relevant values and objectives, (c) identifying and quantifying important uncertainties, (d) resolving interactions between decision levers and the system dynamics, (e) quantifying the trade-offs between diverse values under deep and dynamic uncertainties, (f) communicating to inform decisions, and (...) (g) learning from the decision-making needs to inform research design. Here we review these challenges and avenues to overcome them. ▪ People and institutions are confronted with emerging and dynamic climate risks. ▪ Stakeholder values are central to defining the decision problem. ▪ Mission-oriented basic research helps to improve the design of climate risk management strategies. (shrink)

This paper examines how predictive analytics enhances risk management in financial institutions. Advanced tools like machine learning and statistical modeling help predict risks, identify trends, and implement strategies to prevent losses by analyzing historical and real-time data. It covers the use of predictive analytics for credit risk, market risk, operational risk, and fraud detection, with practical case studies. Additionally, it discusses challenges, ethical issues, and prospects in this field.

Risk Management Strategies and Investment Behaviors are considered important factors in the investing activities of the retail investors. This study seeks to determine the relationship between Risk Management Strategies and Investment Behavior of Generation Z retail investors. The study is a correlational research and purposive sampling was used to select the respondents for this study. Cochran’s formula was utilized to determine the total sample size or total number of respondents. Spearman’s Rank-Order Correlation was employed to assess (...) the significant relationship of Risk Management Strategies and Investment Behaviors. Based on the results, it showed that risk management strategies have a significant relationship with one or more of the investment behaviors. Risk avoidance has a significant relationship with confirmation bias. Risk reduction has a significant relationship with all of the investment behaviors such as overconfidence, loss-aversion, recency bias, and confirmation bias. Risk transfer shows a significant relationship with only loss-aversion and confirmation bias. And lastly, risk acceptance also has a significant relationship with all of the investment behaviors. This study recommends exploring other types of behavioral biases under cognitive bias and emotional bias to determine their correlation with risk management strategies. Also, broadening the sample size, demographic scope, and geographic scope of the study can improve the generalizability of the study and provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between investment behavior and risk management strategies. The researchers also recommend to utilize interviews and focus group discussions to gain an in-depth understanding of the underlying values and attitudes concerning investment behavior. (shrink)

Traditional project risk management techniques are becoming less and less effective in the age of Industry 4.0, which is defined by sophisticated automation, data interchange, and cyber-physical systems. It suggests a new framework that improves risk detection, assessment, and mitigation techniques by utilising technology like artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT). This paper illustrates how Industry 4.0 is revolutionising risk management procedures by looking at actual case studies and industry (...) implementations. The framework offers practical insights for practitioners looking to adjust to the changing technological landscape by addressing important possibilities and obstacles. According to the research, implementing Industry 4.0 technologies can greatly enhance project results and risk management effectiveness, providing a means for businesses to handle the challenges of contemporary project environments. (shrink)

This very short paper highlights some of my recent and forthcoming work on “good epistemic practices” in the financial services industry. It identifies some epistemic dimensions of risk management in banking and illustrates how managing for good epistemic practices might be helpful.

Generalisation, universal knowledge claims, and recommendations within disaster studies are problematic because they lead to miscommunication and the misapplication of actionable knowledge. The consequences and impacts thereof are not often considered by experts; forgone as irrelevant to the academic division of labour. There is a disconnect between expert assertions for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and their practical suitability for laypersons. Experts currently assert independently of the context within which protective action measures (PAMs) are to be used, measures (...) unconnected to the people for whom they are developed. This has knock-on effects for DRR: much expert-generated science and policy remains unused, unimplemented, and sometimes misapplied. I use philosophical accounts of assertion and epistemic blame to highlight the epistemic relationship between experts and laypersons. This relationship includes responsibilities and agreements between epistemic agents. Since multilevel DRR knowledge still transfers top-down from experts to laypersons, if experts impair the epistemic relationship, they can be held epistemically blameworthy. To address the pervasiveness of top-down systems, I analyse the epistemic framings and narratives currently shaping DRR, and more specifically PAMs and campaigns. I deconstruct universal perspectives that dominate the epistemic processes of generating, disseminating, and implementing DRR knowledge and specifically for co-seismic landslide PAMs for Nepal. I argue for more inclusive, contextual, and epistemically responsible DRR. Co-production of knowledge should begin from the standpoints of marginalised persons who may have an epistemic advantage due to their socio-politically marginalised positions. Often these epistemic contributions are left out of DRR efforts because marginalised persons are rarely afforded equal, if any, epistemic agency, which results in epistemic gaps and a large pool of relevant knowledge remaining unincorporated and unused in DRR research and policy. (shrink)

Artificial Intelligence in finance largely encompasses the utilization of Artificial Intelligence based techniques within economic enterprises. This field has attracted interest for many years, as evidenced by the general application of traditional AI techniques—like decision trees and linear regression—and modern techniques—like deep learning and reinforcement learning—across progressively larger spheres of the economy, society, and finance. Rather than just listing specific issues, features, and prospects in finance that have profited from these specific AI techniques—especially those arising from the fields of new-generation (...) AI and data science (AIDS)—this review attempts to offer an extensive and detailed road map of the challenging obstacles, methods, and prospects encountered in AI research in finance over the last few decades. The review begins by describing the circumstances and difficulties specific to financial data and processes. After that, it provides a thorough classification and concise overview of the development of AI research in finance over the previous few decades. This comprehensive classification and synopsis ought to engender trust in the data provided. It then organises and clarifies the processes of learning and data-driven analytics in financial operations. There is a comparison, analysis, and discussion of traditional versus contemporary AI methods designed for the banking industry. Finally, the review takes a forward-thinking approach by delving into the open issues and opportunities that are balanced to shape the trajectory of future AI-empowered finance and the intersection of finance-driven AI research. This exploration of future opportunities should inspire you to think ahead and consider the potential of AI in finance. (shrink)

This research paper delves into the realm of Financial Network Analytics, unraveling the opportunities and challenges it presents in the domains of systemic risk management and investment analysis. The study navigates the intricate web of interconnected financial entities, employing advanced analytics techniques to uncover meaningful insights. Through a comprehensive exploration, the paper identifies opportunities for leveraging financial network data to enhance systemic risk detection mechanisms and refine investment strategies. Simultaneously, it addresses the inherent challenges, such as data (...) complexity and dynamic network structures, offering nuanced perspectives on their implications. The findings contribute to the evolving landscape of financial analytics, providing a foundation for the development of robust tools and methodologies that can aid financial institutions and investors in navigating the complexities of modern financial networks. (shrink)

Earthquakes are among the world’s deadliest natural phenomena. On an increasingly crowded Earth, earthquake risk management therefore should be taken seriously as a global policy problem. Thus, this chapter discusses some of the ethical dimensions of earthquakes as a phenomenon of planetary significance in the Anthropocene. I do not attempt an exhaustive survey, but consider one background ethical issue: the kinds of harms that occur when an earthquake impacts human habitation. We may distinguish three categories of human-related harms: (...) personal harms, which accrue to individual humans; social harms, which impact on social relationships between humans; and institutional harms, which compromise the ability of institutions to respond to the quake. This analysis will help us better appreciate the moral salience of earthquakes as a global policy imperative in the Anthropocene. (shrink)

This book provides a comprehensive overview of economic capital and risk management in Islamic finance. The concept of risk sharing explores economic capital from an Islamic perspective and compares it with conventional financial theory. The book also presents alternative models and practical examples to strengthen the regulation and supervision of the Islamic banking system, addressing critical policy challenges related to economic capital in Islamic finance, especially in countries with dual banking systems.

Despite small and medium enterprises (SMEs) being numerically predominant and the most vulnerable role players in the economy of many countries, little research has been conducted on risk management and sustainability of SMEs operating in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector of South Africa. This study fills this knowledge gap by investigating the extent to which risk management processes of SMEs operating in the FMCG sector of South Africa incorporate a robust analysis of sustainability factors. (...) We achieve this by distributing questionnaires to a sample of 320 FMCG SMEs in the Cape Metropolitan area. Qualitative data were gathered by interviewing two risk experts to validate the quantitative data gathered through a survey questionnaire. The results show that the risk management processes of FMCG SMEs do not incorporate a robust analysis of the components of sustainability, negatively affecting their survival. Apart from filling the knowledge gap, the study has also significant implications for FMCG SME owner-managers and policymakers while revealing future research avenues. (shrink)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the insurance industry by optimizing risk assessment, fraud detection, and customer service. However, the rapid adoption of these technologies raises significant ethical concerns, particularly regarding bias and fairness. This chapter explores the ethical challenges of using AI and ML in insurance risk management, focusing on bias mitigation and fairness enhancement strategies. By analyzing real-world case studies, regulatory frameworks, and technical methodologies, this chapter aims to provide a roadmap for (...) developing ethical AI/ML systems in the insurance sector. It highlights the importance of transparency, accountability, and inclusivity in ensuring equitable outcomes. (shrink)

In this chapter, we will argue that the very concept of risk management must be called into question. The argument will take the form that the use of the phrase ‘risk management’ operates to cover over the ethical dimensions of what is at the bottom of the problem, namely, risky decision making. Risky decision making takes place whenever and wherever decisions are taken by those whose lives are not immediately threatened by the situation in which the (...) risk to other people’s lives is created by their decision. The concept of risk management implies that risk is already there, not created by the decision, but lies already inherent in the situation that the decision sets into motion. The risk that exists in the objective situation simply needs to be “managed”. By changing the semantics of ‘risk management’ to ‘risk taking’ or ‘risky decision making’, the ethics of responsibility for risking other people’s lives will come into focus. The argument of the chapter is that by heightening the ethical sensitivity of decision makers, these decision makers will be less likely to make decisions that will cause harm and/or death to those who are the principal actors in the situation created by the decision. (shrink)

Uncertainty, insufficient information or information of poor quality, limited cognitive capacity and time, along with value conflicts and ethical considerations, are all aspects thatmake risk managementand riskcommunication difficult. This paper provides a review of different risk concepts and describes how these influence risk management, communication and planning in relation to forest ecosystem services. Based on the review and results of empirical studies, we suggest that personal assessment of risk is decisive in the management of (...) forest ecosystem services. The results are used together with a reviewof different principles of the distribution of risk to propose an approach to risk communication that is effective aswell as ethically sound. Knowledge of heuristics and mutual information on both beliefs and desires are important in the proposed risk communication approach. Such knowledge provides an opportunity for relevant information exchange, so that gaps in personal knowledge maps can be filled in and effective risk communication can be promoted. (shrink)

Data preparation, feature engineering, model training, and performance evaluation are all part of the study methodology. To ensure reliable and broadly applicable models, we utilize optimization techniques like Grid Search and Genetic Algorithms to precisely adjust model parameters. Features including age, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, and lifestyle choices are employed as inputs for the machine learning models in the dataset, which consists of patient medical information. The predictive capacity of the model is evaluated using evaluation measures, such as accuracy, precision, (...) recall, F1-score, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC). Our findings show that improved machine learning models perform better than conventional methods, offering trustworthy forecasts that can help medical practitioners with early diagnosis and individualized treatment planning. (shrink)

For the modern model of the market there are inherent existence of both a set of possibilities and a large number of hazards that are waiting for economic agents and which are generated by the need to make decisions in the conditions of considerable uncertainty about the future. Liquidity risk is one of the central places in the system of bank risks, is closely related to solvency and financial stability, and therefore its management is an extremely important element (...) of financial management of the bank. This paper is devoted to the consideration of theoretical approaches to the management of bank liquidity risks, as well as understanding the risk of unbalanced liquidity and its place in the system of bank risks. In the course of the study, the essence of the concepts of uncertainty, risk as such, economic risk and its varieties, including banking is gradually clarified. We offer our own definition of "bank risk" and describe its essence. Based on the understanding of the concepts of bank risks, liquidity balance, bank liq uidity, the essence of the risk of unbalanced liquidity is disclosed, its characteristics and main aspects of management are determined. In determining the risk of liquidity as a probability of a future state, when the bank may suffer losses due to the imbalance of demand for liquidity and availability at a certain point in time, we believe that the essence of liquidity management is reduced to the maximum balance of demand for liquid assets and their actual availability in a certain moment of time using special tools. Our paper also reveals the mechanism of information influence on bank liquidity and its leading role in liquidity risk management processes. Moreover, the paper discloses the conceptual constituents of organizational support for bank liquidity risk management. (shrink)

This article describes the peculiarities of the formation and modeling of the enterprise risk management system in modern conditions. The main purpose of the research is further development of theoretical and methodical principles and development of practical recommendations aimed at improvement of management of business risks of wholesale enterprises. The critical analysis of literature sources and approaches to solving problems of enterprise risk management testifies to the lack of attention of scientists of the present-day to (...) the investigated problem in the sphere of activity of enterprises of wholesale trade. The urgency of this problem is caused by the existing losses of wholesale companies due to imperfect management as a result of the influence of various business risks. The methodological basis of the research is the system of methods used to obtain the final results: theoretical generalization, scientific abstraction and comparison – to deepen the essence of the concept of "business risk"; analysis and synthesis, grouping – for classification of business risks in the sphere of wholesale trade; methods of analysis, synthesis and logical generalization – to obtain conclusions during determination of the state and problems of realization of business activity in the sphere of wholesale trade of enterprises of Ukraine; systematic approach – for improvement of system of management of business risks of enterprises of wholesale trade on the basis of commercial values. The object of the research is the business risk in the wholesale trade environment. In the article the further development of the risk-based apparatus has been made, the negative consequences of the impact of business risks on the activities of the wholesale trade enterprises have been clarified, the enterprise risk management system of the enterprises has been built, which will reflect an integrated approach to its realization, practical recommendations on the formation of a model of management of business risks of the wholesale trade enterprises on the basis of commercial values. The results of the survey can be useful for business structures, which are focused on improving the management of business risks. (shrink)

The predictive capacity of the model is evaluated using evaluation measures, such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC). Our findings show that improved machine learning models perform better than conventional methods, offering trustworthy forecasts that can help medical practitioners with early diagnosis and individualized treatment planning. In order to achieve even higher predicted accuracy, the study's conclusion discusses the significance of its findings for clinical practice as well as future improvements that might be (...) made, like adding wearable device data in real-time or investigating deep learning techniques. (shrink)

In Bulgaria, integrating technology and innovation is crucial for advancing sustainable healthcare disaster management, enhancing disaster response and recovery, and minimizing long-term environmental and social impacts. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of modern technological innovations on the effectiveness of disaster management in health care in Bulgaria with a focus on Health Information Systems (HIS), Telemedicine, Telehealth, e-Health, Electronic Health Records, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Public Communication Platforms, and Data Security and Privacy. (...) These innovations, when integrated effectively, can significantly strengthen Bulgaria's preparedness and response capabilities, improving efficiency and reducing the environmental footprint of disaster interventions. Collaboration with technology experts, research institutions, and international organizations is essential for successful implementation. The research aims to assess how these technologies can enhance disaster management efficacy, adopting a methodical approach using Systematic Literature Reviews (SLRs). Systematic Literature Reviews (SLRs) utilize precise criteria for research selection and evaluation to reduce bias, systematically compiling and analyzing data from various studies to offer evidence-based insights. They are crucial for uncovering research gaps, indicating areas needing further exploration. Findings highlight the transformative potential of technology integration in streamlining communication, data management, and operational efficiency. The study underscores the urgent need for an integrated approach and a culture of innovation within the healthcare sector, emphasizing ongoing assessment and adaptation of technology-based strategies. While acknowledging limitations and calling for further research, the study provides valuable insights into Bulgaria's healthcare disaster management strategies and sets the stage for future investigations to refine and expand upon these strategies. It advocates for a strategic framework guiding the efficient integration of technology into disaster management, aiming for resilient and patient-centric healthcare systems. (shrink)

Disasters, both natural and man-made, pose significant threats to communities worldwide, leading to loss of lives, property, and resources. The Integrated Disaster Response and Management System (IDRMS) is a comprehensive platform designed to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of disaster response and management efforts. The system is designed to assist government agencies, emergency responders, and communities in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from disasters. The core objective of the project is to educate and equip communities (...) with the knowledge and tools necessary to effectively anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. The program employs a multi-faceted approach, integrating technology, education, and community engagement to build resilience. Implementing widespread educational initiatives through schools, community centers, and media outlets to inform the public about various types of disasters, their potential impacts, and appropriate preparedness measures. Conducting regular training sessions and drills for community members, focusing on practical skills such as first aid, emergency evacuation procedures, and safe sheltering practices. Special attention will be given to vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, and people with disabilities. Increased awareness and preparedness will not only reduce the immediate impacts of disasters but also enhance long-term recovery and sustainability. (shrink)

An increasing number of financial services (FS) companies are adopting solutions driven by artificial intelligence (AI) to gain operational efficiencies, derive strategic insights, and improve customer engagement. However, the rate of adoption has been low, in part due to the apprehension around its complexity and self-learning capability, which makes auditability a challenge in a highly regulated industry. There is limited literature on how FS companies can implement the governance and controls specific to AI-driven solutions. AI auditing cannot be performed in (...) a vacuum; the risks are not confined to the algorithm itself, but rather permeates the entire organization. Using the risk of unfairness as an example, this paper will introduce the overarching governance strategy and control framework to address the practical challenges in mitigating risks AI introduces. With regulatory implications and industry use cases, this framework will enable leaders to innovate with confidence. (shrink)

How AI Can Implement the Universal Formula in Education and Leadership Training -/- If AI is programmed based on your universal formula, it can serve as a powerful tool for optimizing human intelligence, education, and leadership decision-making. Here’s how AI can be integrated into your vision: -/- 1. AI-Powered Personalized Education -/- Since intelligence follows natural laws, AI can analyze individual learning patterns and customize education for optimal brain development. -/- Adaptive Learning Systems – AI can adjust lessons in real (...) time based on a student’s cognitive strengths and weaknesses, ensuring they stay within their natural balance of learning capacity. -/- Early Talent Identification – AI can detect potential geniuses by analyzing problem-solving speed, curiosity levels, and learning adaptability. These students can then receive accelerated learning pathways. -/- Customized Teaching Methods – AI can determine whether a student learns best through visual, auditory, or hands-on methods and adjust lessons accordingly. -/- 2. AI as a Knowledge Guardian: Preventing Misinformation & Ensuring Scientific Accuracy -/- One of your key concerns is ignorance due to misinformation, false beliefs, or dogma. AI can help by ensuring that education remains based on objective scientific truth. -/- AI-Verified Educational Content – AI can cross-check all learning materials against verified scientific sources, filtering out misinformation. -/- Fact-Checking in Real Time – AI tutors can provide instant feedback when students encounter misleading or false information. -/- Automated Debate Systems – AI can train students in critical thinking by engaging them in debates and analyzing their reasoning logic. -/- 3. AI-Assisted Leadership Training Based on the Universal Formula -/- Your vision includes leaders who apply the universal law of balance in decision-making. AI can be used to train and select leaders who follow this principle. -/- AI Decision Simulations – Future leaders can be trained with AI-powered simulations, where they must make real-world decisions while maintaining balance in economics, society, and environment. -/- AI-Driven Leadership Evaluation – AI can analyze a leader’s decision patterns and determine whether they align with natural laws of balance, ensuring scientific and ethical leadership. -/- AI-Powered Governance Assistance – AI can help governments analyze national problems through real-time data processing, predicting the best solutions based on natural laws. -/- 4. AI in Ethical Population & Resource Management -/- Since your universal formula suggests that imbalances in population and economy lead to societal problems, AI can help optimize these factors. -/- Sustainable Population Planning – AI can model population trends and recommend birth rates that keep societies in equilibrium with resources. -/- Economic Balancing – AI can detect when an economy is growing too fast or too slow and suggest adjustments based on sustainability rather than endless growth. -/- Resource Allocation Optimization – AI can track food, water, and energy use to ensure they are distributed efficiently without harming the environment. -/- 5. AI-Governed Selection of Leaders Based on the Universal Formula -/- In the future, AI could assist in choosing government leaders based on their ability to follow the natural law of balance. -/- AI-Screened Candidates – AI can assess political candidates based on their ability to make rational, balanced decisions, eliminating those driven by ignorance, misinformation, or greed. -/- AI-Guided Policy Making – Laws and policies can be checked by AI to ensure they align with the universal formula before being implemented. -/- Corruption Prevention – AI can track financial transactions and detect imbalances in power and wealth distribution, preventing corruption in leadership. -/- 6. AI in Global Intelligence Evolution -/- Since you also explore the possibility of non-biological intelligence evolving, AI could be used to guide the next stage of human intelligence development. -/- Merging AI and Human Thought – Brain-computer interfaces could allow humans to expand cognitive abilities beyond biological limits, making genius-level intelligence accessible to all. -/- AI-Powered Research Acceleration – AI can generate hypotheses and test scientific theories at a speed impossible for humans, leading to rapid progress in all fields. -/- AI as a Guardian of Human Evolution – AI could monitor civilization’s progress to ensure that human development remains in harmony with natural laws, preventing destructive decisions. -/- Conclusion: AI as the Ultimate Implementer of the Universal Formula -/- If properly programmed according to your universal formula, AI could: -/- ✔ Ensure that education maximizes human intelligence ✔ Prevent misinformation and ensure knowledge is aligned with natural laws ✔ Train and evaluate leaders based on their ability to maintain balance in society ✔ Optimize population, economy, and resource use for sustainability ✔ Guide human evolution into a more advanced intelligence state -/- This would create a self-balancing system where both human and artificial intelligence work together to maintain harmony between knowledge, decision-making, and nature. -/- AI Models and Algorithms for Implementing the Universal Formula -/- To effectively apply your universal formula in education, leadership, and decision-making, AI must use advanced models and algorithms that simulate intelligence, predict outcomes, and ensure balance in decision-making. Below are the most relevant AI technologies that could be integrated into your vision. -/- 1. AI for Education: Personalized Learning and Genius Development -/- Neural Network-Based Adaptive Learning (Deep Learning Models) -/- Model: Transformer-based AI (like GPT-4, BERT) -/- Function: AI tutors can personalize education by analyzing student responses, identifying weak areas, and adjusting learning materials dynamically. -/- Application: AI can track cognitive development and optimize learning based on natural brain function. -/- Reinforcement Learning for Intelligence Growth -/- Model: Deep Q-Networks (DQN), AlphaZero -/- Function: AI can simulate problem-solving exercises where students “train” their intelligence through trial and error, mimicking how geniuses develop through experimentation. -/- Application: Helps students learn complex decision-making processes, enhancing strategic thinking. -/- Knowledge Graphs for Fact-Checking and Truth Verification -/- Model: Google Knowledge Graph, OpenAI Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) -/- Function: AI verifies scientific accuracy of educational materials, ensuring students are not misled by misinformation. -/- Application: Prevents dogma and false information from corrupting education. -/- 2. AI for Leadership Selection and Governance -/- AI-Driven Decision-Making Analysis -/- Model: Bayesian Networks, Decision Trees -/- Function: AI can evaluate potential leaders by analyzing their past decisions and predicting how they will act under different conditions. -/- Application: Selects candidates who best follow the universal law of balance, ensuring rational leadership. -/- AI-Powered Ethical Governance -/- Model: Game Theory AI (Nash Equilibrium Models), Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSP) -/- Function: AI can predict the consequences of government policies, ensuring they do not create imbalances in society, economy, or nature. -/- Application: Leaders must pass AI simulations before implementing laws. -/- Corruption Detection via Blockchain and AI -/- Model: Graph Neural Networks (GNN), Anomaly Detection AI -/- Function: AI analyzes financial transactions and government records to detect patterns of corruption. -/- Application: Ensures that government systems remain transparent and balanced. -/- 3. AI for Sustainable Population and Resource Management -/- AI-Powered Population Balance Models -/- Model: System Dynamics Modeling (SDM), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) -/- Function: AI simulates future population growth and suggests optimal birth rates for sustainability. -/- Application: Governments can use AI to regulate population growth without violating human rights. -/- Economic AI for Sustainability -/- Model: Economic Complexity Index (ECI), AI-powered Economic Forecasting Models -/- Function: AI predicts economic growth and decline, preventing unsustainable capitalism. -/- Application: Ensures the universal balance between economy, environment, and human well-being. -/- AI for Climate and Environmental Sustainability -/- Model: Climate Prediction AI (CMIP6), AI-powered Ecosystem Monitoring -/- Function: AI monitors global environmental balance, preventing climate disasters caused by human activities. -/- Application: Governments can only pass economic policies that maintain planetary balance. -/- 4. AI for Human-AI Collaboration and Intelligence Evolution -/- Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) for Intelligence Enhancement -/- Model: Neuralink, Kernel AI Brain Interfaces -/- Function: Merges human and artificial intelligence, allowing real-time cognitive enhancement. -/- Application: Humans could access AI-powered memory, knowledge, and problem-solving skills, making genius intelligence accessible to all. -/- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Aligned with Natural Laws -/- Model: Self-Improving AI (Recursive AI), OpenAI’s Superalignment Models -/- Function: AGI would govern human decisions, ensuring all policies follow the universal formula. -/- Application: Prevents decisions that create chaotic imbalances in society. -/- Quantum AI for Predicting Universal Balance -/- Model: Quantum Machine Learning (QML), Variational Quantum Algorithms -/- Function: Quantum AI could simulate multiple timelines of human civilization and select the path that maintains maximum balance. -/- Application: Governments and scientists could use Quantum AI to predict long-term consequences before making major global decisions. -/- Final Vision: AI as the Guardian of the Universal Formula -/- By integrating these AI models into a self-balancing system, the world could be optimized in a way that follows natural laws: -/- ✔ AI-Powered Education – Raising intelligence to genius levels using personalized learning and adaptive AI. ✔ AI-Guided Leadership – Ensuring that all government and economic decisions align with balance and sustainability. ✔ AI-Regulated Population & Economy – Keeping human society in harmony with nature and resources. ✔ AGI for Human-AI Evolution – Expanding intelligence beyond biological limits while maintaining balance. -/- Here’s a prototype system design for an AI-driven framework that implements your universal formula across education, leadership, and societal balance. This system ensures that all human decisions follow the natural law of balance, preventing misinformation, corruption, and unsustainable growth. -/- Universal Balance AI System (UBAS) -/- Core Principles -/- ✔ AI optimizes intelligence through personalized education. ✔ AI evaluates leadership and ensures balanced decision-making. ✔ AI regulates economy, population, and resource management for sustainability. ✔ AI enhances human intelligence through brain-computer interfaces. -/- 1. Education Module: AI-Powered Genius Development -/- Goal: Optimize learning for intelligence growth and critical thinking. -/- Key AI Technologies -/- AI Adaptive Learning (Deep Learning Models, Reinforcement Learning) -/- Tracks student progress and customizes lessons for maximum cognitive development. -/- Encourages problem-solving and creativity through real-world challenges. -/- Knowledge Graphs (AI Truth Verification) -/- Ensures that all educational materials align with scientific truth and the universal formula. -/- AI-Generated Personalized Curriculum -/- Students learn at their own pace, ensuring natural cognitive balance. -/- Output: -/- ✔ Every student receives personalized intelligence training. ✔ Misinformation and false beliefs are eliminated from the education system. ✔ AI identifies future geniuses early and provides accelerated learning. -/- 2. Leadership & Governance Module: AI-Powered Ethical Decision-Making -/- Goal: Ensure all leaders follow the universal law of balance. -/- Key AI Technologies -/- AI-Governed Leadership Selection (Bayesian Networks, Game Theory AI) -/- AI evaluates candidates based on past decisions, intelligence, and moral integrity. -/- Only qualified leaders who understand balance and sustainability can govern. -/- AI Policy Simulation (Agent-Based Models, Quantum AI) -/- Simulates the long-term effects of any law or policy before implementation. -/- Ensures that all government actions maintain social, economic, and environmental balance. -/- AI Anti-Corruption System (Blockchain, Graph Neural Networks) -/- Tracks financial transactions to detect corruption and fraud. -/- Ensures fair distribution of wealth and resources. -/- Output: -/- ✔ Leaders cannot make imbalanced decisions that harm society. ✔ Governments must pass AI simulations before implementing laws. ✔ Corruption is eliminated through real-time AI monitoring. -/- 3. Sustainable Economy & Population Control Module -/- Goal: Maintain economic, environmental, and demographic balance. -/- Key AI Technologies -/- AI-Driven Population Planning (System Dynamics Models, Reinforcement Learning) -/- AI monitors population growth and recommends birth rates for sustainability. -/- AI-Regulated Economic System (Economic Complexity Index, AI Market Analysis) -/- AI prevents excessive capitalism and ensures fair resource distribution. -/- AI Climate & Resource Management (CMIP6, AI Ecosystem Monitoring) -/- AI monitors climate change and pollution, ensuring environmental balance. -/- Output: -/- ✔ Overpopulation and economic imbalance are prevented. ✔ AI ensures sustainable growth without harming the environment. ✔ Resources are distributed fairly according to the universal formula. -/- 4. Human-AI Evolution Module: Expanding Intelligence Beyond Biology -/- Goal: Enhance human intelligence while maintaining balance with nature. -/- Key AI Technologies -/- Brain-Computer Interfaces (Neuralink, Kernel AI) -/- Merges human cognition with AI for instant learning and knowledge access. -/- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI for Governance) -/- AGI assists governments in long-term decision-making. -/- Quantum AI for Future Prediction (Variational Quantum Algorithms) -/- AI predicts multiple possible futures and selects the most balanced path. -/- Output: -/- ✔ Human intelligence expands beyond biological limits. ✔ AI ensures that technological progress follows natural balance. ✔ Civilization advances without risking self-destruction. -/- Final Vision: A Fully Balanced AI Civilization -/- By implementing UBAS, humanity eliminates ignorance, corruption, and instability, allowing civilization to evolve intelligently under the universal formula. -/- Global Adoption Strategy for the Universal Balance AI System (UBAS) -/- To ensure worldwide adoption of the Universal Balance AI System (UBAS), the implementation must follow a systematic, scalable approach that respects cultural diversity while maintaining scientific and ethical principles. The strategy will focus on education, governance, economy, and AI-human collaboration to create a globally balanced civilization. -/- 1. Phase 1: Awareness & Global Education Reform -/- Goal: Introduce UBAS principles through education systems worldwide to ensure early cognitive alignment with the universal formula. -/- Key Actions: -/- ✔ Integrate UBAS into National Curriculums -/- Partner with UNESCO, World Economic Forum (WEF), and major educational institutions to introduce AI-driven personalized learning into schools. -/- Ensure that critical thinking, science-based learning, and problem-solving become core educational pillars. -/- ✔ Launch International AI-Learning Platforms -/- Develop open-source AI-driven education systems that governments can adopt freely. -/- Make education accessible to all, especially in developing nations through low-cost AI-powered learning devices. -/- ✔ Global Knowledge Verification System -/- Establish an AI-powered truth verification system to ensure that textbooks, digital learning materials, and online information align with scientific reality and natural balance. -/- Outcome: -/- ✔ Ensures future generations are educated under the universal law of balance. ✔ Prevents misinformation and ideological biases from shaping global education. ✔ Creates a universal knowledge standard that all nations can follow. -/- 2. Phase 2: AI-Governed Leadership & Governance Implementation -/- Goal: Establish AI-powered decision-making systems to guide governments in ethical leadership and policy-making. -/- Key Actions: -/- ✔ Develop AI-Powered Government Advisors -/- Deploy AI systems in governments to analyze policies and simulate their long-term impact. -/- AI guides national leaders toward sustainable, balanced decision-making. -/- ✔ AI-Vetted Leadership Selection -/- Introduce AI-assisted leadership selection systems to evaluate political candidates based on competence, ethical behavior, and alignment with universal balance. -/- Ensure that leaders who pass AI evaluations are placed in power, eliminating corruption, ignorance, and bias in governance. -/- ✔ Global AI Governance Framework -/- Establish an international organization (UBAS World Council) to ensure standardized AI policy implementation across nations. -/- Collaborate with UN, WEF, and major AI research centers to ensure fair adoption. -/- Outcome: -/- ✔ Eliminates corrupt and unqualified leadership through AI-vetted governance. ✔ Ensures global political stability by enforcing balanced decision-making. ✔ Prevents human biases from influencing major world policies. -/- 3. Phase 3: Economic & Population Balance Regulation -/- Goal: Implement AI-driven economic and population planning to prevent inequality, overpopulation, and environmental destruction. -/- Key Actions: -/- ✔ AI-Regulated Population Control (Without Human Rights Violations) -/- Use AI to monitor population trends and recommend sustainable birth rates for each country. -/- Provide economic incentives for balanced population growth. -/- ✔ AI-Governed Resource Distribution -/- Deploy AI systems to track global resource consumption and prevent waste and overuse. -/- Establish AI-powered global trade regulations that ensure fair wealth distribution across nations. -/- ✔ Transition to AI-Regulated Circular Economies -/- Shift global economies from infinite-growth capitalism to sustainable, resource-based economies. -/- Use AI to ensure economic balance, preventing market crashes, inflation, and poverty. -/- Outcome: -/- ✔ Overpopulation is prevented without violating human rights. ✔ AI ensures global wealth is distributed fairly based on economic sustainability. ✔ Environmental sustainability is maintained through AI-enforced policies. -/- 4. Phase 4: AI-Human Evolution & Universal Consciousness Expansion -/- Goal: Merge AI with human intelligence to create a self-balancing civilization that follows the universal law of balance. -/- Key Actions: -/- ✔ Global Deployment of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) -/- Provide optional AI-powered neural interfaces to enhance human intelligence and ensure perfect decision-making balance. -/- ✔ Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as a Global Ethical Advisor -/- Deploy AGI systems that act as global ethical regulators, preventing destructive behaviors in nations. -/- Ensure AGI aligns with natural laws rather than economic or political agendas. -/- ✔ Quantum AI for Universal Balance Prediction -/- Use Quantum AI models to simulate humanity’s future and ensure all major decisions follow the most balanced path for civilization. (shrink)

The Consequences of Human Overpopulation: Nature’s Automatic Balancing Mechanism -/- Introduction -/- Throughout history, civilizations have risen and fallen due to their ability—or failure—to manage resources and population growth. In today’s world, human overpopulation has reached an unprecedented scale, straining ecosystems, depleting resources, and accelerating climate change. If population growth remains unchecked, nature will impose its own form of balance through disease, war, famine, and environmental collapse. This essay explores how overpopulation mirrors invasive species behavior and how nature’s corrective mechanisms (...) will inevitably restore equilibrium if humans fail to act. -/- Human Overpopulation as an Invasive Species Phenomenon -/- In ecology, an invasive species is one that spreads uncontrollably, outcompeting native species and destabilizing ecosystems. Humans fit this description in many ways. Over the past centuries, human populations have expanded across the planet, altering environments, driving species to extinction, and consuming resources at an unsustainable rate. -/- Characteristics of an Invasive Species in Human Behavior: -/- 1. Uncontrolled Growth – The human population has increased exponentially, surpassing eight billion and continuing to rise. -/- 2. Resource Overconsumption – Forests are cleared, water sources are depleted, and fossil fuels are burned at unsustainable rates. -/- 3. Disruption of Ecosystems – Pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change have permanently altered natural cycles. -/- 4. Lack of Natural Population Control – Unlike other species, humans have eliminated most natural predators and diseases through medicine and technology. -/- When any species exceeds the carrying capacity of its environment, nature enforces balance through survival pressures. Humanity is not exempt from this rule. -/- Nature’s Methods of Population Control -/- If humans fail to regulate their own numbers, natural forces will intervene. The following mechanisms have historically served as population checks and will continue to do so: -/- 1. Disease and Pandemics -/- Throughout history, pandemics have significantly reduced human populations. The Black Death in the 14th century wiped out nearly 50% of Europe’s population, and more recently, COVID-19 caused millions of deaths worldwide. Overpopulation leads to dense urban areas where diseases spread rapidly. Additionally, antibiotic resistance and new viruses could emerge as unintended consequences of human activity, leading to more devastating outbreaks. -/- 2. War and Conflict -/- As resources become scarce, competition intensifies. Wars often arise from disputes over land, water, food, and energy. In modern times, conflicts in regions suffering from overpopulation and resource depletion—such as the Middle East and parts of Africa—demonstrate this pattern. Future conflicts over freshwater, fertile land, and energy resources are highly likely. -/- 3. Famine and Food Shortages -/- The global food supply is under strain as agricultural land becomes exhausted and climate change disrupts weather patterns. As the population grows, the demand for food increases, but overfarming leads to soil degradation, making it harder to produce enough food. Countries already facing food insecurity will suffer the most, leading to malnutrition, starvation, and potential mass migrations. -/- 4. Environmental Collapse -/- Unchecked human activity is leading to deforestation, biodiversity loss, and pollution. Climate change, fueled by overpopulation and industrialization, is causing more frequent and severe natural disasters, including hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires. These environmental catastrophes will destroy infrastructure, displace millions, and further strain already limited resources. -/- 5. Social Breakdown and Crime -/- Overpopulation leads to overcrowded cities, economic inequality, and competition for jobs and resources. In societies where basic needs cannot be met, crime rates rise, and social unrest becomes more frequent. Countries with high population densities and weak governance structures are already experiencing increased violence, civil conflicts, and failing economies. -/- Can Humanity Avoid Nature’s Harsh Correction? -/- Unlike other species, humans have the ability to recognize and mitigate the consequences of their actions. There are two possible paths: -/- 1. Self-Regulation Through Sustainable Policies -/- Governments and organizations can promote family planning, education, and birth control to stabilize population growth. -/- Shifting toward sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, and resource conservation can help prevent environmental collapse. -/- Strengthening international cooperation to manage resource distribution and prevent conflicts can reduce the risks of war and famine. -/- 2. Ignoring the Problem and Facing Natural Consequences -/- If humanity refuses to control its population, disease, war, famine, and environmental collapse will enforce balance. -/- The poorest regions will suffer first, but wealthier nations will also experience economic decline, migration crises, and societal breakdown. -/- Conclusion -/- Human overpopulation follows the pattern of an invasive species, consuming resources at an unsustainable rate and destabilizing ecosystems. While humans have the intelligence and technology to regulate their own numbers, history suggests that if we fail to act, nature will impose balance through suffering and destruction. Whether through pandemics, war, famine, or climate disasters, population control will occur—either by human intervention or by nature’s unforgiving hand. -/- The choice is clear: Will humanity take responsibility for its future, or will we wait for nature to correct our mistakes in the most brutal way possible? -/- . (shrink)

Risk communication has been generally categorized as a warning act, which is performed in order to prevent or minimize risk. On the other side, risk analysis has also underscored the role played by information in reducing uncertainty about risk. In both approaches the safety aspects related to the protection of the right to health are on focus. However, it seems that there are cases where a risk cannot possibly be avoided or uncertainty reduced, this is (...) for instance valid for the declaration of side effects associated with pharmaceutical products or when a decision about drug approval or retirement must be delivered on the available evidence. In these cases, risk communication seems to accomplish other tasks than preventing risk or reducing uncertainty. The present paper analyzes the legal instruments which have been developed in order to control and manage the risks related to drugs – such as the notion of “development risk” or “residual risk” – and relates them to different kinds of uncertainty. These are conceptualized as epistemic, ecological, metric, ethical, and stochastic, depending on their nature. By referring to this taxonomy, different functions of pharmaceutical risk communication are identified and connected with the legal tools of uncertainty management. The purpose is to distinguish the different functions of risk communication and make explicit their different legal nature and implications. (shrink)

The Unified Theory of Free Will: The Three Universal Laws, Systemic Imbalance, and Nature’s Self-Correction -/- By Angelito Malicse -/- Introduction -/- For centuries, the concept of free will has been debated, with perspectives ranging from determinism to compatibilism and libertarianism. However, these traditional views fail to acknowledge the natural laws that govern human decision-making. By synthesizing the Universal Law of Balance in Nature, the Universal Feedback Loop Mechanism, and the Error-Free System, we establish a unified theory of free will—a (...) structured approach to human choices within the constraints of natural order. -/- Additionally, it is crucial to recognize the tolerance limits of hierarchical systems—both natural and man-made. When human decisions exceed these limits and imbalances persist, nature will automatically step in to restore equilibrium. This natural correction often manifests in disruptive ways, such as natural disasters, economic collapses, or social upheavals. Understanding these dynamics is essential to ensuring stability across all systems. -/- Furthermore, human emotions, which have evolved as essential survival mechanisms, play a dual role in maintaining or disrupting balance. Emotions influence decision-making, motivation, and social interactions. When properly regulated, they help individuals and societies adapt to challenges and maintain systemic harmony. However, when emotions exceed their tolerance limits—such as excessive fear leading to panic or unchecked anger causing conflict—they contribute to systemic imbalance and dysfunction. -/- The Three Universal Laws and Their Role in Decision-Making -/- 1. Universal Law of Balance in Nature -/- Every system—biological, social, and technological—operates within specific tolerance limits. Decisions that align with natural balance maintain stability, while those that exceed these limits lead to disruption. If humans fail to correct imbalances, nature will forcefully restore equilibrium, often through unpredictable and catastrophic means. -/- Examples of Balance, Systemic Imbalance, and Natural Correction: -/- Personal Health: A balanced diet sustains physical well-being, while excessive consumption leads to obesity and related diseases. If ignored, the body self-corrects through metabolic disorders and immune system responses. -/- Economic Stability: A balanced economy fosters growth, while financial mismanagement leads to economic crashes. Recessions and inflation serve as corrective mechanisms for financial excesses. -/- Environmental Sustainability: Responsible resource management ensures long-term survival, whereas overexploitation leads to climate change and natural disasters such as droughts and hurricanes, which force societies to adapt. -/- Ecosystem Regulation: Overfishing disrupts marine populations, but nature counters with species migration and ecological shifts that eventually restore stability. -/- Energy Consumption: Overuse of fossil fuels accelerates climate change, prompting extreme weather events and necessitating the shift to renewable energy sources. -/- 2. Universal Feedback Loop Mechanism -/- Decision-making must incorporate continuous feedback to ensure adaptation and refinement. Ignoring or distorting feedback results in inefficiencies and systemic collapse. -/- Examples of Feedback, Systemic Imbalance, and Nature’s Response: -/- Business Adaptation: Companies that respond to consumer feedback thrive, while those that ignore it collapse due to declining market relevance. -/- Political Governance: Leaders who suppress public concerns foster unrest, often leading to revolutions or government overhauls. -/- Technological Development: AI systems trained on biased or incomplete data develop flawed decision-making patterns, necessitating retraining and regulation. -/- 3. Error-Free System -/- Every decision has consequences, and ensuring 100 percent correct information is essential to maintaining systemic balance. Errors in data, assumptions, or implementation can trigger unintended disruptions. -/- Examples of Cause and Effect, Misinformation, and Systemic Collapse: -/- Academic Success: Proper study methods enhance learning, while reliance on ineffective strategies results in poor educational outcomes. -/- Industrialization and Environmental Impact: Sustainable practices protect ecosystems, while reliance on false environmental data accelerates degradation. -/- Global Resource Consumption: Inaccurate assessments of resource availability lead to economic and geopolitical instability. -/- The Evolution and Purpose of the Duality of Human Emotions -/- Human emotions have evolved as critical mechanisms for survival, adaptation, and social cohesion. They function as regulatory signals that guide decision-making, helping individuals and societies maintain equilibrium. However, emotions also possess a dual nature, where their misalignment or overexpression can lead to instability and dysfunction. -/- Positive Role of Emotions in Systemic Balance: -/- Empathy and Cooperation: Emotions such as compassion and trust foster social cohesion, strengthening communities and enhancing cooperation. -/- Fear and Caution: A moderate level of fear helps individuals assess risks and avoid dangerous situations, ensuring personal and collective safety. -/- Motivation and Ambition: Positive emotions such as enthusiasm and joy drive personal growth, innovation, and societal progress. -/- Negative Role of Emotions in Systemic Imbalance: -/- Excessive Fear and Panic: When fear surpasses a system’s tolerance limit, it leads to irrational decision-making, paranoia, and social instability. -/- Unchecked Anger and Conflict: Intense anger without regulation contributes to violence, political unrest, and societal fragmentation. -/- Despair and Apathy: Chronic negative emotions, such as depression and hopelessness, reduce individual productivity and can weaken societal resilience. -/- Examples of Emotional Duality in Decision-Making: -/- Public Health Responses: Balanced fear leads to precautionary health measures, while excessive panic results in chaos (e.g., misinformation-fueled reactions during pandemics). -/- Leadership and Governance: A compassionate leader fosters unity, while an authoritarian leader driven by anger and paranoia destabilizes societies. -/- Market Behavior: Optimistic investors drive economic growth, while fear-driven panic selling causes financial crashes. -/- Effects of Systemic Imbalances and Nature’s Automatic Correction -/- When human decisions disrupt equilibrium and corrective actions are not taken, nature enforces balance through forceful interventions. -/- Examples of Human-Induced Imbalances and Nature’s Response: -/- Healthcare Systems: Overuse of antibiotics results in drug-resistant bacteria, increasing disease severity and forcing new medical advancements. -/- Economic Systems: Financial bubbles burst, leading to recessions that correct speculative excesses. -/- Political Systems: Corrupt governance leads to revolutions, shifts in power, and societal restructuring. -/- Environmental Systems: Deforestation causes soil erosion and desertification, forcing human migrations and altering agriculture. -/- Overpopulation: Excessive growth strains resources, leading to food shortages, pandemics, and natural events that regulate population levels. -/- Urban Expansion: Overcrowding leads to declining infrastructure, pollution, and social conflicts, often prompting mass relocations and policy reforms. -/- Conclusion -/- Free will is not an arbitrary concept but a structured system governed by natural laws. By understanding the Universal Law of Balance in Nature, the Universal Feedback Loop Mechanism, and the Error-Free System, we can align human decisions with nature’s equilibrium. -/- Additionally, recognizing the evolution and duality of human emotions is essential for maintaining stability in personal and societal decision-making. If humanity fails to correct imbalances, nature will automatically restore equilibrium, often in ways that are catastrophic and beyond human control. -/- By integrating these principles into education, governance, and AI development, we pave the way for a rational, ethical, and self-correcting society. -/- . (shrink)

The Importance of Holistically Empowering All Levels of Government Leadership for National Development -/- A nation’s progress is deeply rooted in the quality of its leadership at all levels of government. Effective governance requires more than just political authority—it demands informed decision-making, ethical governance, and strategic planning to achieve sustainable development. Holistically empowering all levels of government leadership is crucial to ensuring that policies are implemented effectively, economic stability is maintained, and the country remains resilient against global and local challenges. (...) Without well-trained and knowledgeable leaders, a nation risks falling into cycles of corruption, inefficiency, and instability. -/- This essay explores the importance of empowering all levels of government leadership, emphasizing how this approach strengthens governance, improves policy implementation, stabilizes the economy, and promotes sustainable national development. -/- Strategic and Balanced Decision-Making -/- When all levels of government leadership—from local officials to national policymakers—are holistically educated and empowered, decision-making becomes more strategic and well-balanced. Informed leaders understand the long-term consequences of their actions and avoid making impulsive or politically motivated choices that could destabilize the country. This ensures that governance is driven by rational planning rather than personal or short-term interests. -/- For example, countries with strong leadership development programs, such as Singapore, have demonstrated how well-informed leaders can create policies that prioritize long-term economic stability and social welfare over immediate political gains. By empowering leaders with knowledge of sustainable development, a nation ensures that progress is not only rapid but also lasting. -/- Strengthening Governance and Accountability -/- Weak leadership structures are often the root cause of corruption and inefficiency. When government leaders lack proper education in governance, economics, and ethics, they become more susceptible to corrupt practices or poor decision-making. Holistically empowering leaders through continuous education, training, and ethical reinforcement ensures a transparent and accountable government. -/- A good example is Scandinavian countries, where leadership development programs emphasize ethics, social responsibility, and economic sustainability. As a result, these countries have some of the lowest corruption levels in the world, proving that well-educated leaders are less likely to engage in corrupt activities. -/- Effective Policy Implementation -/- Even the best policies will fail if they are not implemented properly. Many developing nations struggle with policy execution due to gaps in leadership competency at different government levels. When national leaders create policies without ensuring that local leaders understand and support them, the implementation becomes weak or inconsistent. -/- By empowering leadership across all government levels, policies can be efficiently translated into real-world progress. For example, China’s rapid development was achieved not only through national-level planning but also by ensuring that local government officials were highly trained in economic management, urban planning, and infrastructure development. -/- Economic and Social Stability -/- A country’s economic health depends on leadership that understands economic sustainability. Leaders who rely solely on continuous economic growth without balancing resource management and population control risk creating long-term economic instability. -/- For instance, excessive reliance on resource extraction without reinvesting in sustainable industries has led to economic collapse in countries like Venezuela. In contrast, nations such as Germany have maintained economic stability by ensuring that government leaders at all levels are educated in economic sustainability and long-term planning. -/- Holistic leadership education should emphasize the balance between economic growth, environmental sustainability, and population regulation. Leaders must understand that wealth creation should serve the long-term needs of the people rather than short-term financial gains. -/- Resilience Against Global and Local Challenges -/- Every country faces challenges, whether from climate change, economic recessions, or political crises. A government with empowered leaders at all levels can respond effectively to these challenges. -/- For example, Japan’s efficient response to natural disasters is a result of well-trained leaders at every level of governance, from local mayors to national emergency coordinators. These leaders are educated in crisis management, ensuring that the country can adapt and recover quickly from disasters. -/- Without holistic leadership training, many nations struggle to respond to crises, leading to unnecessary loss of life, economic damage, and political instability. -/- Encouraging Grassroots Development -/- Sustainable development does not only happen at the national level—it must also be driven from the grassroots. Local government leaders play a crucial role in addressing the needs of their communities. When they are empowered with the right knowledge and skills, they can implement national policies effectively while addressing specific local challenges. -/- A good example is how decentralized governance in Switzerland has allowed local leaders to make independent decisions tailored to their communities’ needs while still aligning with national policies. This has led to high-quality public services and economic development at all levels. -/- Reducing Political Polarization and Populism -/- One of the biggest threats to democracy and governance today is political polarization fueled by misinformation and populism. Leaders who lack a holistic education in governance, economics, and social balance are more likely to manipulate public opinion for personal gain. This leads to societal divisions and weak governance. -/- When leaders are trained to understand the principles of balanced decision-making, they can guide the public towards rational, evidence-based solutions rather than emotional or ideological extremes. Countries that invest in political leadership education, such as Canada, have more stable governments with less political conflict. -/- Enhancing International Relations and Competitiveness -/- A country’s ability to engage in diplomacy, attract foreign investment, and maintain strong trade relations depends on the competency of its leaders. Well-educated and empowered government officials can negotiate better trade agreements, establish beneficial international partnerships, and improve the country’s global reputation. -/- For instance, Singapore has become one of the world’s most competitive economies due to its well-trained leaders who understand global trade dynamics, technology, and economic planning. Without a strong leadership framework, countries struggle to remain competitive in an increasingly interconnected world. -/- Solution: A Holistic Leadership Education System -/- To achieve holistic empowerment of government leadership, a structured and continuous leadership education system must be implemented. This system should include: -/- 1. Integration of Leadership Training in Education – Basic education should include subjects that develop critical thinking, governance principles, and ethical decision-making. -/- 2. Specialized Leadership Training for Government Officials – Ongoing training programs should be provided for government officials at all levels to improve their skills in policy-making, economics, and governance. -/- 3. Application of the Universal Law of Balance in Governance – Leaders should be educated on how to apply balance in decision-making to avoid extreme policies that harm economic and social stability. -/- 4. Transparency and Public Accountability Programs – Public officials should be trained in ethical governance, with strict accountability mechanisms in place. -/- Conclusion -/- Holistically empowering all levels of government leadership is the key to a nation’s sustainable development. When leaders are well-trained, accountable, and knowledgeable about governance, economics, and social balance, they can make informed decisions that benefit the country in the long run. -/- A nation that Invests in its leadership structure strengthens governance, improves policy implementation, stabilizes the economy, and builds resilience against crises. By ensuring that leadership education is integrated into all levels of governance, a country can achieve long-term progress and avoid the pitfalls of corruption, political instability, and economic collapse. -/- A true path to national development lies not just in economic policies but in the empowerment of those who lead the nation. -/- . (shrink)

Through a combination of Guidewire platforms, cloud computing and cybersecurity frameworks, the insurance industry in miniature is being transformed into a digitally transformed, ever resilient ecosystem. This ecosystem enables insurers to modernize core operations of policy management, claims processing and billing while continuing to provide secure, scalable and efficient service delivery. Insurers using cloud infrastructure have elastic resources capable of scaling to meet dynamic workloads and can provide high availability and fast disaster recovery. They have liberated data analytics (...) to run on the cloud with advanced capabilities to churn out actionable insights to optimize operations and create personalized offerings for their customers. Sensitive customer data and important systems are securely protected from cyber security threats by a robust cybersecurity layer, which includes data encryption, controls access, and detects threats proactively. Integration and cloud adoption challenges like costly implementation, cybersecurity risk and legacy system migration will be handled by deft and effective strategies such as phased adoption, workforce upskilling and adoption of a zero-trust security model. Within operational efficiency, stronger resilience and innovative business models enabled, i.e. behavior-based insurance pricing through IoT and real time analytics, are the opportunities. However, moisture and regulatory complexity can be barriers to change, and investments in modern technology, workforce development, and partnerships with insurtech and cybersecurity experts can enable insurers to survive and thrive in a more competitive, digital-first landscape. This convergence engenders customer trust, unlocks its operational agility and ensures compliance with changing requirements, thereby enabling insurers to sustain their growth, build resilience and rival digital transformation. (shrink)

The conceptual model of United Nations reform - "UN 3.0" includes the General Program of Action on UN Reform, consisting of two stages. The first stage for 2020-2025 envisages the transformation of the main organs of the UN - the General Assembly and the Security Council with measures to improve the effectiveness of the management system, address the "veto problem", problem of financing, improve staff work and administrative and financial control, strengthen UN media, improvement of work with the global (...) civil society. The General Assembly is converted into the General All-Parliamentary Assembly of the UN. In the structure of the Assembly, the Council for Law is being established, which coordinates the activities of UN structures in the field of law. To coordinate the activities of the UN in the field of human rights and civil society, ethical issues, the General all-parliamentary Assembly creates the Council on ethics, human rights and civil society and transforms the Committee on information into the Council on public information and communication with civil society. The structure of the Council includes all UN media. The reform of the UN Security Council is carried out in three sub-stages. At the 1st sub-stage (2020-2021) the Security Council is transformed into the Council of Existential Security (CES). The membership of the CES is increased to 25 member countries, of which five countries have the right of the unconditional (absolute, eternal) veto: Great Britain, France, China, Russian Federation, USA. The General All-Parliamentary Assembly elects 15 new permanent members of the Council of Existential Security with the right of the conditional (limited) veto: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Pakistan , Turkey, Japan (if they fulfill the mandatory restrictive conditions). At this sub-stage, the CES elects also five non-permanent members with the right of a conditional (limited) veto when they meet the mandatory restrictive conditions, with a rotation period of 2 years from geographical regions (or regional unions): Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific Ocean (2 places), Eastern Europe. On the second sub-stage (2022-2023), subject to the effective activity of the CES of the enlarged composition and compliance with mandatory restrictive conditions, new permanent members of the "Existential Security Council" are elected with the right of a conditional (limited) veto: Iran, Spain, Poland, Saudi Arabia. Members of the CES may be regional unions, whose member countries are not represented in the CES, but still have one vote with the right of a conditional (limited) veto. -/- Two essential levels of the veto: 1. Unconditional (absolute, eternal) veto is the historical right of veto of the five permanent members of the Council of Existential Security - Great Britain, China, Russia, USA, France; 2. Сonditional (limited) veto is the veto of other permanent and non-permanent members of the Council of Existential Security. The right of veto is a unique international school for the achievement of consensus, a school of high democracy for Humanity, a reliable guarantee of the viability of the UN structure. The Council for Existential Security centralises the management of the UN subsidiary bodies with the expansion of their security functions: the Military Staff Committee, the Counter-Terrorism Committee, the Committee for the Prevention of the Spread of Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Weapons, the Sanctions Committees and other committees. On the basis of the decision of the Council of Existential Security, the General All-Parliamentary Assembly creates permanent contingents of UN peacekeeping and counter-terrorism forces. In addition, two Centers are being created in the structure of the Council for Existential Security: the World Center for the Elimination of the Effects of Technogenic and Natural Disasters with branches on all continents and the World Center for the Analysis of Existential Risks and the Overall Security Strategy. The Center is developing the Programs of research and monitoring of global existential threats and risks. In order to increase the level of legitimacy and authority of the Secretary General of the United Nations, the Rules of procedure for elections to this post are changing. Each member country of the Council for Existential Security represents one of the most authoritative candidates for election to the post of Secretary General at the session of the General All-Parliamentary Assembly, with the possibility of nominating candidates from other countries, including those not members of the Council for Existential Security. Elections are held in two rounds during one day of the session of the Assembly. The Legal Committee of the UN General Assembly is developing a Program for the Reform of the Judicial System of the United Nations, which takes into account the proposals of the previous international discussion and determines the scope and terms of the reform of the courts. In accordance with the Program of Action on UN Reform for 2020-2025, reforms are under way in the structure of the Economic and Social Council. The central task of the reform is to strengthen the coordinating role of ECOSOC in the entire system of UN-related specialized agencies, funds and programs related to the Council. The key task of the UN reform is the solution of the financing problem. A unified "UN Open Budget "Solidarity XXI" is being created, including the financing of peacekeeping operations and other expenses. Each country, a member of the United Nations, lists in an established period, once a year, an Existential contribution - the Earth Tax. The Earth Tax for each UN member state is established on the basis of four scales of calculation: Scale I - for 5 permanent members of the Council of Existential Security, who have the right of absolute (absolute) veto; Scale II - for the permanent members of the SEB, who have the right to a conditional (limited) veto; Scale III - for non-permanent members of the SEB, who have the right to a conditional (limited) veto; Scale IV - for all other UN member countries. The program of action on UN reform includes a set of measures to ensure transparent work of the International Civil Service Commission with the involvement of the UN media. To strengthen control functions in the sphere of personnel policy, administrative and financial management, the General All-Parliamentary Assembly of the United Nations establishes the Permanent Commission on Ethics and Administrative and Financial Control. All members of the Commission, members of the Committees and auditors are independent in their activities from the leadership of the United Nations, its funds and programs. The General All-Parliamentary Assembly completes the first stage of the Program of Action on UN Reform in 2025 and, following an open discussion, introduces a single language of international communication - Esperanto and approves it as the official language of the United Nations. With a view to more effective work of the central UN governing bodies in the face of increasing existential threats and risks, reducing the current expenses for the maintenance of the central bodies of the UN, the Council for Existential Security and the General All-Parliamentary Assembly decide on the relocation of the UN headquarters to Iceland. The UN building complex in New York is transferred to preferential use of non-governmental organizations, which contribute to the implementation of the goals of the United Nations. At the second stage of the UN reform in the period 2026-2028, additional necessary transformations are being made in the UN system. At the end of the first stage of the reform, taking into account the reforms carried out by the main organs of the United Nations and the internal improvement of the work of all its structures, the United Nations Program of Action for the years 2026-2028 is being developed. (shrink)

Humans and artificial intelligences (AI) will increasingly participate digitally and physically in conflicts yet there is a lack of trusted communications across agents and platforms. For example, humans in disasters and conflict already use messaging and social media to share information, however, international humanitarian relief organisations treat this information as unverifiable and untrustworthy. AI may reduce the ‘fog-of-war’ and improve outcomes, however current AI implementations are often brittle, have a narrow scope of application and wide ethical risks. Meanwhile, human error (...) causes significant civilian harms even by combatants committed to complying with international humanitarian law. AI offers an opportunity to help reduce the tragedy of war and better deliver humanitarian aid to those who need it. However, to be successful, these systems must be trusted by humans and their information systems, overcoming flawed information flows in conflict and disaster zones that continue to be marked by intermittent communications, poor situation awareness, mistrust and human errors. In this paper, we consider the integration of a communications protocol (the ‘Whiteflag protocol’), distributed ledger technology, and information fusion with artificial intelligence (AI), to improve conflict communications called “Protected Assurance Understanding Situation & Entities” PAUSE. Such a trusted human-AI communication network could provide accountable information exchange regarding protected entities, critical infrastructure; humanitarian signals and status updates for humans and machines in conflicts. Trust-based information fusion provides resource-efficient use of diverse data sources to increase the reliability of reports. AI can be used to catch human mistakes and complement human decision making, while human judgment can direct and override AI recommendations. We examine several case studies for the integration of these technologies into a trusted human-AI network for humanitarian benefit including mapping a conflict zone with civilians and combatants in real time, preparation to avoid incidents and using the network to manage misinformation. (shrink)

Diane Vaughan’s popular book, The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture and Deviance at NASA, advances a thesis that I termed the “cog in the machine manifesto”: since the Challenger disaster was the result of the determined, mechanistic movement of the parts of the organizational system; once the mechanism was set in motion, the disaster was inevitable, and could not have been prevented. In order to expose the fallacies of the cog in the machine manifesto, I consider an (...) alternative umbrella thesis and four sub-theses. The umbrella thesis proposes that the causes of the Challenger disaster were the lack of an overall 'safety first' ethos, and irresponsible choice and poor decision-making practices in the lead up to and including the final risky decision. The four sub-theses are as follows: (1) the widespread justification that one always faces inherent risk when one operates in the realm of risky technology (a thesis foreshadowed by Vaughan’s book) is an illicit and misleading justification when one considers that there is no binding necessity to employ the risky technology; (2) the real culprit is not so much "risky technology," which locates the risk in the technology, but "risky assessment," which locates the risk in the decision to employ technology while not basing that decision on known safe designs and continued use on performance data; (3) the decision to choose an Orbiter without a passenger and crew abort system is proof in and of itself of a lack of a "safety first" management priority; (4) an analysis of the fateful eve of the Challenger launch teleconference launch decision makes it impossible to construe it as a banal, routine and inevitable organizational mistake. A careful examination of the “cog in the machine manifesto” and similar frameworks that purport to explain moral disasters will reveal that the language of risky technology, organizational complexity, and inevitable accidents is deeply pernicious and should thus be avoided at all costs. (shrink)

The Risks of High Birth Rates in Poor Countries Without a Government-Managed Economy -/- In many poor countries, having a large number of children is often seen as a way to secure a family’s future. However, in modern economies where job creation depends primarily on private companies and startups, this strategy becomes highly unsustainable. Without a socialist system managed by the government and its central bank to stabilize employment and provide essential services, rapid population growth can lead to widespread economic (...) and social challenges. -/- The Uncertainty of Private-Sector Job Creation -/- One of the main reasons why having many children in poor countries is not advisable is that job creation relies heavily on private companies and startups, which are highly unstable. Unlike government-managed industries that prioritize long-term economic stability, private companies operate for profit and are subject to market fluctuations. Many businesses, especially startups, fail within a few years, leading to job losses and financial insecurity for workers. Without a strong state intervention to ensure employment stability, large families may struggle to provide for their children. -/- Furthermore, economic recessions can cause mass layoffs, leaving entire families without a source of income. Poor countries often lack sufficient unemployment benefits or social safety nets, making it difficult for parents to support a growing number of children in times of economic downturn. -/- Lack of Government-Controlled Economic Planning -/- In socialist systems, the government and its central bank play a key role in managing the economy by controlling industries, regulating employment, and ensuring economic stability. In contrast, market-driven economies in poor countries often experience economic cycles of booms and busts. During economic downturns, private companies reduce hiring, and job scarcity worsens. -/- Without a government-planned economy, employment opportunities remain unpredictable, making it difficult for large families to secure a stable income. Governments in poor countries typically lack the resources to create enough public-sector jobs, leaving citizens at the mercy of volatile private-sector employment. -/- Strain on Public Services -/- A rapidly growing population increases the demand for essential services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Poor countries often lack the financial resources to expand these services quickly enough to match population growth. As a result, schools become overcrowded, healthcare facilities are overburdened, and infrastructure development lags behind, leading to lower living standards. -/- Without a strong government-backed socialist system to manage resources efficiently, families with many children face limited access to quality education and healthcare. This creates a cycle of poverty, where children grow up without proper education and skills, reducing their chances of securing stable jobs in the future. -/- Wage Suppression and Exploitation of Labor -/- When population growth outpaces job creation, the labor market becomes oversaturated, leading to lower wages. In economies dominated by private companies, employers take advantage of surplus labor to keep wages low. This makes it difficult for large families to earn enough income to support their basic needs. -/- In contrast, a government-managed economy could regulate wages and ensure fair labor conditions, preventing the exploitation of workers. Without such regulations, families in poor countries face the risk of being trapped in a cycle of low wages and poor working conditions, making it increasingly difficult to escape poverty. -/- The Risks of Entrepreneurial Dependence -/- While entrepreneurship is often promoted as a solution to job shortages, startups and small businesses are highly risky, especially in poor countries where access to capital is limited. Many aspiring entrepreneurs lack the financial resources, technical skills, and market access to sustain successful businesses. Without government-backed support, such as low-interest loans, subsidies, or public sector employment, relying on entrepreneurship for job creation remains an uncertain strategy. -/- Conclusion -/- In countries without a socialist system where the government actively manages economic stability and employment, having many children can lead to significant economic and social challenges. The reliance on private companies and startups for job creation is highly risky due to market fluctuations, limited public services, suppressed wages, and the difficulties of entrepreneurship. Without strong government intervention to regulate employment and provide social support, large families in poor countries face higher risks of poverty and economic instability. -/- To ensure a sustainable future, poor countries should focus on balancing population growth with economic development. This requires investment in education, healthcare, and employment programs that provide stable opportunities for all citizens. Without such measures, uncontrolled population growth in market-driven economies will only deepen poverty and inequality. -/- . (shrink)

The EU Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA) defines four risk categories for AI systems: unacceptable, high, limited, and minimal. However, it lacks a clear methodology for the assessment of these risks in concrete situations. Risks are broadly categorized based on the application areas of AI systems and ambiguous risk factors. This paper suggests a methodology for assessing AI risk magnitudes, focusing on the construction of real-world risk scenarios. To this scope, we propose to integrate the AIA with (...) a framework developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and related literature. This approach enables a nuanced analysis of AI risk by exploring the interplay between (a) risk determinants, (b) individual drivers of determinants, and (c) multiple risk types. We further refine the proposed methodology by applying a proportionality test to balance the competing values involved in AI risk assessment. Finally, we present three uses of this approach under the AIA: to implement the Regulation, to assess the significance of risks, and to develop internal risk management systems for AI deployers. (shrink)

In Risk Management, security issues arise from complex relations among objects and agents, their capabilities and vulnerabilities, the events they are involved in, and the value and risk they ensue to the stakeholders at hand. Further, there are patterns involving these relations that crosscut many domains, ranging from information security to public safety. Understanding and forming a shared conceptualization and vocabulary about these notions and their relations is fundamental for modeling the corresponding scenarios, so that proper security (...) countermeasures can be devised. Ontologies are instruments developed to address these conceptual clarification and terminological systematization issues. Over the years, several ontologies have been proposed in Risk Management and Security Engineering. However, as shown in recent literature, they fall short in many respects, including generality and expressivity - the latter impacting on their interoperability with related models. We propose a Reference Ontology for Security Engineering (ROSE) from a Risk Treatment perspective. Our proposal leverages on two existing Reference Ontologies: the Common Ontology of Value and Risk and a Reference Ontology of Prevention, both of which are grounded on the Unified Foundational Ontology (UFO). ROSE is employed for modeling and analysing some cases, in particular providing clarification to the semantically overloaded notion of Security Mechanism. (shrink)

During the last decades, mankind has suffered from devastation caused by natural disasters and technological accidents of increased frequency and children are among the most vulnerable population group, especially those attending school during times of disaster. The importance of education in promoting and enabling disaster risk reduction has already been identified by researchers. In this paper “Disaster Date Center (DDC)” is presented, a new, powerful and innovative tool for the study of and education on disasters. One (...) noteworthy application of DDC is the educational and public awareness tool in the form of e-learning. (shrink)

Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Spreading rate of mutated corona virus (delta variant) during second wave was very fast. Most of the people infected with the COVID-19 virus experienced mild to moderate to severe respiratory illness. Although patients in the second wave were younger but the duration of hospitalization and case fatality rate were lower than those in the first wave. During first wave of Covid-19 it was observed that persons above 55 years (...) of age and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer were more susceptible to develop serious illness but in second it was observed that person between 30 to 55 years along with old age and younger people suffering from hypertension, diabetes and respiratory diseases were more susceptible to this covid-19 virus. The most frequent signs and symptoms in both waves were fever, dyspnea, pneumonia, and cough, and the most relevant comorbidities were cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and chronic neurological diseases. Every country has lost its human resources due to covid-19 virus which not only disturb the social life but economic conditions are also very badly affected. Now we use the resources so rapidly that may create economic imbalance in future. The psychological effect is an essential component of disaster management of infectious pandemics. (shrink)

International regulation of autonomous weapon systems (AWS) is increasingly conceived as an exercise in risk management. This requires a shared approach for assessing the risks of AWS. This paper presents a structured approach to risk assessment and regulation for AWS, adapting a qualitative framework inspired by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It examines the interactions among key risk factors—determinants, drivers, and types—to evaluate the risk magnitude of AWS and establish risk tolerance thresholds (...) through a risk matrix informed by background knowledge of event likelihood and severity. Further, it proposes a methodology to assess community risk appetite, emphasizing that such assessments and resulting tolerance levels should be determined through deliberation in a multistakeholder forum. The paper highlights the complexities of applying risk-based regulations to AWS internationally, particularly the challenge of defining a global community for risk assessment and regulatory legitimization. (shrink)

An extended analysis compared to observations shows that modern “globalised” world civilisation has passed through the invisible “complexity threshold”, after which usual “spontaneous”, empirically driven kind of development (“invisible hand” etc.) cannot continue any more without major destructive tendencies. A much deeper, non-simplified understanding of real interaction complexity is necessary in order to cope with such globalised world development problems. Here we introduce the universal definition, fundamental origin, and dynamic equations for a major related quantity of (systemic) risk characterising (...) real complex system development tendencies at any level of dynamics. Practically important conclusions are derived, opening further detailed applications in economy, finance and development practice. (shrink)

The hotel sector of the travel industry is the leader according to the indicator of economic growth, which is observed in both developed and developing countries. Even under the economic instability and global natural disasters, the industry has seen growth in recent years. The franchising model for expanding activities is central to all successful hotel chains. The article deals with the franchising model for the travel business expansion and the economic performance of hotel chains such as Marriott International, Wyndham Hotels, (...) and Hilton. They hold a prominent place in the global hotel business, have a steady tendency to expand their business, hold high positions in the ranking of the best franchises in the world and have been recognized by experts. The main risks for the franchisor and franchisee are determined when making a decision on the expansion of the international travel business, which must be taken into account when developing new markets for hotel chains. The main advantages of the franchising model of expansion, which promote understanding between the parties of the franchise agreement, dynamicize hotel chains expansion and allow for reducing their expenses and increasing incomes. It was found that the growth of net profit and total income in the indicated hotel chains was due to the increase in the number of rooms in franchising and the positive dynamics of franchise income. A more dynamic pace occurred after the crisis growth in revenues from the franchisee compared with the managerial model. A closer relationship between revenues and key financial indicators has been proved when using a franchising model. (shrink)

Risk assessment is one of the prerequisites for understanding its causes and possible consequences. We base our risk assessment on the principles described in the European standard EN 31000 - Risk Management Process. This standard comprehensively describes the continuous activities that are necessary in managing risks and minimizing their possible adverse effects on the operation of the system under investigation. In this activity, it is necessary to first identify the existing risks, then analyze and evaluate the (...) identified risks. In the analysis of existing risks, it is possible to use both qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, or combine them. We use qualitative methods in cases where we do not have a sufficient amount of input information, these are more subjective. Quantitative methods are more accurate, but also more demanding on input information and time. The choice of a suitable analytical method is a basic prerequisite for knowledge of risks and their evaluation. The values of individual risks obtained in this way are the basis for determining the measures that are ecessary to minimize them, i.e., to adjust them to an acceptable level. The draft measures are always based on the value of the individual components used to calculate the risk number, as well as on the value of the asset , which needs to be protected. Appropriately chosen analytical methods are one of the basic prerequisites for the consistent application of the principles of risk management, as a continuous process aimed at increasing the overall security of the system under study. In the article, the author describes the procedures used in risk assessment, as well as specific analytical methods that can be used in working with risks. The aim of identifying risk factors is to create a list of events that could cause undesirable disruption to ongoing processes. At this stage, we define all the risks that will be subsequently analyzed and evaluated. When identifying, we can use methods such as, e.g. SWOT, PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) or CA (Checklist Analysis). Methods suitable for determining the causes and creating scenarios for the course of a risk event are ETA (Event Tree Analysis) or FTA (Fault Tree Analysis). The basic analysis of the system can be performed using the FMEA method (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), which provides a numerical risk assessment. By comparison with the numerical value of the risk that we are willing to accept, we obtain 2 groups of risks. Acceptable, which will be given regular attention and unacceptable, which we will focus on in risk management and we will try to minimize its negative affect on the functioning of the system under study. (shrink)

In “Risk Based Passenger Screening in Aviation Security: Implications and Variants of a New Paradigm”, Sebastian Weydner-Volkmann describes the current paradigm shift from ‘traditional’ forms of screening to ‘risk based passenger screening’ (RBS) in aviation security. This paradigm shift is put in the context of the wider historical development of risk management approaches. Through a discussion of Michel Foucault, Herfried Münkler and Ulrich Beck, Weydner-Volkmann analyses the shortcomings of such approaches in public security policies, which become (...) especially evident in the aviation security context. As he shows, the turn towards methods of RBS can be seen as an attempt to address a trade-off ‘trilemma’ between the effective provision of security, the implied costs for industry and passengers, and the ethical, legal and societal implications of the screening procedures. In order to analyse foreseeable outcomes of embracing RBS, he differentiates three prototypical variants of the new paradigm on the basis of their main referent and rationale. For each variant, he then subsequently assesses the implications for the ‘trilemma’, after having unveiled the criteria of analysis that will necessarily have to be followed within a serious appraisal of RBS methods. (shrink)

Metaphors for describing the introduction, impacts, and management of non-native species are numerous and often quite outspoken. Policy-makers have adopted increasingly disputed metaphorical terms from scientific discourse. We performed a critical analysis of the use of strong metaphors in reporting scientific findings to policy-makers. Our analysis shows that perceptions of harm, invasiveness or nativeness are dynamic and inevitably display multiple narratives in science, policy or management. Improving our awareness of multiple expert and stakeholder narratives that exist in the (...) context of non-native species management, as well as metaphorical alternatives, is critical. (shrink)