Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularly in the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theory of uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks about the direction he thought such a theory should take. I argue that some modern innovations in the theory of probability allow us to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights. If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carry its weight in Keynes’s arguments. This does (...) not mean that the conclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; in their best formulation they may succeed with merely an appeal to risk. (shrink)

In 1937 Joan Robinson proposed that “when capitalism is rightly understood, the rate of interest will be set at zero and the major evils of capitalism will disappear”. A permanent zero rate would abolish capitalist profit except in limited cases, leaving nearly all output to be claimed by labour as wages. It would allow capital to be allocated on the basis of prospective social benefit rather than short-term profitability and a collateral basis that favours the wealthy. It (...) would remove some of the economic pressure to use resources unsustainably. So why not do this? I argue that the few available philosophical arguments for positive interest rates are unsatisfactory. Those who want a just and sustainable form of capitalism should target net zero for the interest rate. (shrink)

This article proposes a term structure model for dual-currency interest rate markets. The model assumes that volatility is a deterministic function of time alone. This volatility structure can reduce the dimension of the required state variables. An important special case is presented, which corresponds essentially to a Vasicek/Hull-White yield curve model in each currency. The model is very useful for pricing cross-currency derivatives.

This paper presents an analytical model for valuing interest rate swaps, subject to bilateral counterparty credit risk. The counterparty defaults are modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.

In the given article the problems of choice as for the types and forms of debt and share financing on the developing and “frontier markets” with high interest rates have been considered, the definition of what kind of interest rates can be viewed as high and under which circumstances nominal interest rate and in which ones – the real interest rate is important for business. Also, the classification of debt and sharing financing is given (...) and the comparative analysis of such financing is made. Some close attention has been paid to the calculation of the real interest rate according to the inflation forecast. Recommendations concerning attracting of relatively cheap trade financing including international financial and credit organizations, development of operation factoring, financing from captive financial institutions of the exporters of the materials and equipment from the EU and the US have been grounded. The opportunity of relatively free of charge share financing through the mechanism of placing shares IPO/SPO is emphasized, exemplified by the results of placing shares on stock exchanges and their alternative platforms of issuing banks with businesses in Ukraine in 2005 – 2013. As a result, the conclusion concerning the necessity of thorough analysis of financial conditions on the developing and frontier markets before gaining such financing has been made. High interest rates within the average indicators even on the basis of prime rates do not necessarily mean absence of attractive conditions of financing. (shrink)

Fixed-rate versions of rule-consequentialism and rule-utilitarianism evaluate rules in terms of the expected net value of one particular level of social acceptance, but one far enough below 100% social acceptance to make salient the complexities created by partial compliance. Variable-rate versions of rule-consequentialism and rule-utilitarianism instead evaluate rules in terms of their expected net value at all different levels of social acceptance. Brad Hooker has advocated a fixed-rate version. Michael Ridge has argued that the variable-rate version (...) is better. The debate continues here. Of particular interest is the difference between the implications of Hooker's and Ridge's rules about doing good for others. (shrink)

In 2011, Hibbard suggested an intelligence measure for agents who compete in an adversarial sequence prediction game. We argue that Hibbard’s idea should actually be considered as two separate ideas: first, that the intelligence of such agents can be measured based on the growth rates of the runtimes of the competitors that they defeat; and second, one specific (somewhat arbitrary) method for measuring said growth rates. Whereas Hibbard’s intelligence measure is based on the latter growth-rate-measuring method, we survey other (...) methods for measuring function growth rates, and exhibit the resulting Hibbard-like intelligence measures and taxonomies. Of particular interest, we obtain intelligence taxonomies based on Big-O and Big-Theta notation systems, which taxonomies are novel in that they challenge conventional notions of what an intelligence measure should look like. We discuss how intelligence measurement of sequence predictors can indirectly serve as intelligence measurement for agents with Artificial General Intelligence (AGIs). (shrink)

This chapter argues for deregulation of the credit-rating market. Credit-rating agencies are supposed to contribute to the informational needs of investors trading bonds. They provide ratings of debt issued by corporations and governments, as well as of structured debt instruments (e.g. mortgage-backed securities). As many academics, regulators, and commentators have pointed out, the ratings of structured instruments turned out to be highly inaccurate, and, as a result, they have argued for tighter regulation of the industry. This chapter shows, however, that (...) the role of credit-rating agencies in achieving justice in finance is not as great as these commentators believe. It therefore argues instead for deregulation. Since the 1930s, lawgivers have unjustifiably elevated the rating agencies into official, legally binding sources of information concerning credit risk, thereby unjustifiably causing many institutional investors to outsource their epistemic responsibilities, that is, their responsibility to investigate credit risk themselves. (shrink)

The market for environmental, social and governance (ESG) rating and data is expected to grow immensely in the next decades. This brief zooms in both on the integration of ESG risks into “traditional” operations of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) as well as on the emergence of a market exclusively dedicated to ESG rating. As will become clear, the market for ESG ratings suffers from serious shortcomings, a lack of transparency and standardisation, significant biases and conflicts of interests, and a dependence (...) on large, oligopolistic, credit rating agencies. (shrink)

A recently proposed model of sensory processing suggests that perceptual experience is updated in discrete steps. We show that the data advanced to support discrete perception are in fact compatible with a continuous account of perception. Physiological and psychophysical constraints, moreover, as well as our awake-primate imaging data, imply that human neuronal networks cannot support discrete updates of perceptual content at the maximal update rates consistent with phenomenology. A more comprehensive approach to understanding the physiology of perception (and experience at (...) large) is therefore called for, and we briefly outline our take on the problem. (shrink)

Household debt has been widely discussed among social scientists, policy makers, and activists. Many have questioned the levels of debt households are required to take on, and have made various proposals for assisting households in debt. Yet theorists of distributive justice have left household debt underexamined. This article offers a normative examination of the distributive justice issues presented by proposals to relieve household debt or protect households from overindebtedness. I examine two goals at which debt relief proposals aim: remedying disadvantage (...) and stabilizing expectations. I then examine strategies for relieving existing debts such as debt abolition, forgiveness, bankruptcy, and mitigation, as well as strategies that aim to prevent future indebtedness, such as public provision or financing of costly goods and credit or interest rate regulations. (shrink)

A compelling idea holds that reality has a layered structure. We often disagree about what inhabits the bottom layer, but we agree that higher up we find chemical, biological, geological, psychological, sociological, economic, /etc./, entities: molecules, human beings, diamonds, mental states, cities, interest rates, and so on. How is this intuitive talk of a layered structure of entities to be understood? Traditionally, philosophers have proposed to understand layered structure in terms of either reduction or supervenience. But these traditional views (...) face well-known problems. A plausible alternative is that layered structure is to be explicated by appeal to explanations of a certain sort, termed / grounding explanations/. Grounding explanations tell us what obtains in virtue of what. Unfortunately, the use of grounding explanations to articulate the layered conception faces a problem, which I call /the collapse/. The collapse turns on the question of how to ground the facts stated by the explanations themselves. In this paper I make a suggestion about how to ground explanations that avoids the collapse. Briefly, the suggestion is that the fact stated by a grounding explanation is grounded in its /explanans/. (shrink)

This article is a critical survey of the debate over the value of the social discount rate, with a particular focus on climate change. The ma- jority of the material surveyed is from the economics rather than from the philosophy literature, but the emphasis of the survey itself is on founda- tions in ethical and other normative theory rather than highly technical details. I begin by locating the standard approach to discounting within the overall landscape of ethical theory, and (...) explaining the assumptions and simplifications that are needed in order to arrive at the model that is standard in the discounting literature. The article then covers the general theory of the Ramsey equation and its relationship to observed interest rates, arguments for and against a positive rate of pure time preference, the consumption elasticity of utility, and the effect of various sorts of uncertainty on the discount rate. Finally, it turns specifically to the ap- plication of this debate to the case of climate change, focussing on the recent controversy over the low discount rate used in the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change. (shrink)

A classic debate concerns whether reasonableness should be understood statistically (e.g., reasonableness is what is common) or prescriptively (e.g., reasonableness is what is good). This Article elaborates and defends a third possibility. Reasonableness is a partly statistical and partly prescriptive “hybrid,” reflecting both statistical and prescriptive considerations. Experiments reveal that people apply reasonableness as a hybrid concept, and the Article argues that a hybrid account offers the best general theory of reasonableness. -/- First, the Article investigates how ordinary people judge (...) what is reasonable. Reasonableness sits at the core of countless legal standards, yet little work has investigated how ordinary people (i.e., potential jurors) actually make reasonableness judgments. Experiments reveal that judgments of reasonableness are systematically intermediate between judgments of the relevant average and ideal across numerous legal domains. For example, participants’ mean judgment of the legally reasonable number of weeks’ delay before a criminal trial (ten weeks) falls between the judged average (seventeen weeks) and ideal (seven weeks). So too for the reasonable num- ber of days to accept a contract offer, the reasonable rate of attorneys’ fees, the reasonable loan interest rate, and the reasonable annual number of loud events on a football field in a residential neighborhood. Judgment of reasonableness is better predicted by both statistical and prescriptive factors than by either factor alone. -/- This Article uses this experimental discovery to develop a normative view of reasonableness. It elaborates an account of reasonableness as a hybrid standard, arguing that this view offers the best general theory of reasonableness, one that applies correctly across multiple legal domains. Moreover, this hybrid feature is the historical essence of legal reasonableness: the original use of the “reasonable person” and the “man on the Clapham omnibus” aimed to reflect both statistical and prescriptive considerations. Empirically, reasonableness is a hybrid judgment. And normatively, reasonableness should be applied as a hybrid standard. (shrink)

How can different individuals' probability assignments to some events be aggregated into a collective probability assignment? Classic results on this problem assume that the set of relevant events -- the agenda -- is a sigma-algebra and is thus closed under disjunction (union) and conjunction (intersection). We drop this demanding assumption and explore probabilistic opinion pooling on general agendas. One might be interested in the probability of rain and that of an interest-rate increase, but not in the probability of (...) rain or an interest-rate increase. We characterize linear pooling and neutral pooling for general agendas, with classic results as special cases for agendas that are sigma-algebras. As an illustrative application, we also consider probabilistic preference aggregation. Finally, we compare our results with existing results on binary judgment aggregation and Arrovian preference aggregation. This paper is the first of two self-contained, but technically related companion papers inspired by binary judgment-aggregation theory. (shrink)

The article provides a critical assessment of The Central Bank of the Russian Federation policy in response to the sanctions of the US, the EU, the UK, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea and a number of other countries. The effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and its financial market is viewed through the prism of credit, interest rate, and currency risk, and the risk of a decline in business activity. Special attention is paid to the inflationary component and (...) inflationary expectations of the Russian Federation, as well as to the forecasts for a decline in business activity in Russia. A critical assessment is given to the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the economic bloc of the government of the Russian Federation as a whole in response to the sanctions of the civilized world, which disable the normal existence of the economy and the main purpose of which is not to destroy the economy of the Russian Federation but to ensure the end of hostilities on the European continent. The results of our study will be useful to everyone who studies the problems of the effect of economic sanctions on the resource-based economy and the processes of stimulating political decisions by economic methods. (shrink)

Temporal discounting is a technical operation in climate change economics. When discount rates are positive, economic evaluation treats future benefits as less important than equivalent present benefits. This chapter explains and critically evaluates four different reasons economists have given for tying discount rates to the interest rates we observe in real-world markets. I suggest that while philosophers have correctly criticized three of these reasons, their criticisms of the fourth miss the mark. This is because philosophers have not taken heed (...) of the distinct analytical framework in which the fourth reason arises. (shrink)

The project titled "Efficient Machine Learning Algorithm for Future Gold Price Prediction" focuses on the development of a machine learning model that can accurately predict future gold prices using historical data and various economic indicators. Gold has long been regarded as a safe-haven asset, and its price is influenced by multiple factors, including global economic conditions, inflation rates, interest rates, and geopolitical events. This research aims to design and implement a robust machine learning model that can analyze complex patterns (...) and trends in gold prices to generate reliable predictions. The project employs a range of machine learning techniques such as Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machines (SVM) to build the prediction model. It utilizes key features like historical price data, currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and stock market trends as input variables. The performance of the model is evaluated using standard metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error). The final model is optimized for accuracy and efficiency, making it a useful tool for investors and financial analysts who seek to forecast gold prices and make informed investment decisions. (shrink)

This dissertation looks at a set of interconnected questions concerning the foundations of probability, and gives a series of interconnected answers. At its core is a piece of old-fashioned philosophical analysis, working out what probability is. Or equivalently, investigating the semantic question of what is the meaning of ‘probability’? Like Keynes and Carnap, I say that probability is degree of reasonable belief. This immediately raises an epistemological question, which degrees count as reasonable? To solve that in its full generality would (...) mean the end of human inquiry, so that won’t be attempted here. Rather I will follow tradition and merely investigate which sets of partial beliefs are coherent. -/- The standard answer to this question, what is commonly called the Bayesian answer, says that degrees of belief are coherent iff they form a probability function. I disagree with the way this is usually justified, but subject to an important qualification I accept the answer. The important qualification is that degrees of belief may be imprecise, or vague. Part one of the dissertation, chapters 1 to 6, looks largely at the consequences of this qualification for the semantic and epistemological questions already mentioned. It turns out that when we allow degrees of belief to be imprecise, we can discharge potentially fatal objections to some philosophically attractive theses. Two of these, that probability is degree of reasonable belief and that the probability calculus provides coherence constraints on partial beliefs, have been mentioned. Others include the claim, defended in chapter 4, that chance is probability given total history. -/- As well as these semantic and epistemological questions, studies of the foundations of probability usually include a detailed discussion of decision theory. For reasons set out in chapter 2, I deny we can gain epistemological insights from decision theory. Nevertheless, it is an interesting field to study on its own, and it might be expected that there would be decision theoretic consequences of allowing imprecise degrees of belief. As I show in part two, this expectation seems to be mistaken. Chapter 9 shows that there aren’t interesting consequences of this theory for decision theory proper, and chapters 10 and 11 show that Keynes’s attempt to use imprecision in degrees of belief to derive a distinctive theory of interest rates is unsound. -/- Chapters 7 and 8 provide a link between these two parts. In chapter 7 I look at some previous philosophical investigations into the effects of imprecision. In chapter 8 I develop what I take to be the best competitor to the theory defended here – a constructivist theory of probability. On this view degrees of belief are precise, but the relevant coherence constraint is a constructivist probability calculus. This view is, I think, mistaken, but the calculus has some intrinsic interest, and there are at least enough arguments for it to warrant a chapter-length examination. (shrink)

A discussion of the economic work of Genovesi, the first professor of political economy in Europe. Genovesi supports a physiocratic theory of value as the net produce of agricultural work; a theory of interest as the motive of human action, intermediate between the extreme poles of excessive self-love and benevolence; a doctrine of innate rights as a limit to the sovereign's action; a commercial policy that limits dependence on foreign countries. He also took a position in the eighteenth-century debate (...) on "luxury", taking a firm stance in favour of moderate luxury, considered not vice but virtue as the right means between excessive parsimony and prodigality. He also discusses the function of the classes not dedicated to "mechanical arts" and not producing "rents" but nevertheless useful to society (Adam Smith's "unproductive" workers) in which he includes the proprietary classes which he defends against Rousseau's radical criticism, limiting himself to advocating the abolition of inalienable properties. Finally, he advocates population growth as a way to increase public happiness, the development of agriculture, the freedom of grain trade and the interest rate. (shrink)

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the Vasicek model and its applications in finance, categorizing the literature into four key areas: Vasicek model applications, Monte Carlo simulations, negative interest rates and risk, and deep learning for financial time series. To provide deeper insights, a synthesis chart and chronological analysis are included to highlight significant trends and contributions. Building upon this foundation, we employ Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to generate synthetic future interest rate (...) data. These generated projections are then integrated as inputs into the Vasicek model, dynamically adjusting its parameters with the support of AI-driven synthetic data. Additionally, we propose the use of publicly available financial information, gathered via public-facing large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, to assess whether the models project trends in line with real-world data. Specifically, we will query ChatGPT to analyze 50 key questions related to interest rates, risk management strategies, inflation, and economic indicators from institutions like the Federal Reserve and banks. Our approach also leverages publicly available information to refine model outputs, reducing reliance on assumptions and emphasizing the alignment of AI-generated noise with observable market behaviors. By integrating these real-world insights, we aim to ensure that our models remain both innovative and grounded in current economic realities. Ultimately, this framework combines advanced generative AI models, such as GANs and VAEs, with human oversight and economic data, providing a robust, adaptable, and forward-thinking approach to financial risk modeling. Keywords: GANs, VAEs, Vasicek, GenAI, Financial Risk Modeling. (shrink)

Why Capitalism Cannot Create More Successful Entrepreneurs to Balance Stable Job Creation Amid Increasing Population Growth -/- Introduction -/- Capitalism is often praised for fostering entrepreneurship, economic growth, and job creation. However, its inherent flaws—such as wealth concentration, monopolization, financial barriers, and wage suppression—prevent it from producing enough successful entrepreneurs to balance job creation with increasing population growth. As the global population expands, capitalism alone fails to generate sufficient employment opportunities, leading to economic instability, poverty, and inequality. -/- To address (...) these challenges, a balanced approach involving government intervention, socialist-inspired policies, population regulation, and a coordinated effort between private and public sector job creation is necessary. By ensuring economic stability, providing social safety nets, and aligning workforce growth with sustainable employment opportunities, societies can mitigate capitalism’s failures while maintaining its productive aspects. -/- 1. The Fundamental Flaws of Capitalism in Job Creation -/- While capitalism promotes competition and innovation, it also creates significant economic imbalances: -/- Wealth Concentration and Inequality: Over time, wealth accumulates among a few individuals and corporations, reducing opportunities for new entrepreneurs and limiting social mobility. -/- Monopolization: Large corporations dominate markets, pushing out small businesses and reducing job diversity. -/- Financial Barriers to Entrepreneurship: The cost of starting and sustaining a business is high, making it difficult for new entrepreneurs to compete. -/- Short-Term Profit Maximization: Companies prioritize short-term gains, often outsourcing jobs or automating processes to cut costs, rather than investing in long-term job creation. -/- Cyclical Economic Crises: Capitalist economies experience frequent recessions, leading to mass layoffs, business failures, and financial insecurity. -/- These issues make capitalism insufficient in creating enough businesses and stable jobs to match population growth. -/- 2. The Difficulty of Starting a Business and Its Impact on Job Creation -/- Despite the belief that anyone can succeed through hard work, starting a business remains a significant challenge due to: -/- High Initial Costs: Rent, inventory, equipment, and salaries require substantial capital. -/- Limited Access to Credit: Most banks and investors require collateral or proven profitability, which new entrepreneurs lack. -/- Complex Regulations: Navigating legal and tax systems is expensive and time-consuming. -/- Intense Market Competition: Large corporations benefit from economies of scale, making survival difficult for small businesses. -/- Due to these challenges, most aspiring entrepreneurs fail or remain in precarious financial positions, reducing their ability to contribute to long-term job creation. -/- 3. The Effect of Low Wages on Consumer Buying Power and Job Stability -/- One of capitalism’s biggest contradictions is its reliance on low wages to maximize corporate profits while simultaneously needing strong consumer demand to sustain business growth. -/- Reduced Consumer Demand: When workers earn low wages, they have less money to spend, weakening economic growth. -/- Increased Debt and Financial Instability: Many workers rely on credit for basic needs, making them financially vulnerable. -/- Job Insecurity and Precarious Work: Companies cut costs by hiring temporary workers or outsourcing jobs, leading to job instability. -/- By failing to pay workers a living wage, capitalism limits its own potential for sustainable economic growth, reinforcing inequality and restricting business expansion. -/- 4. Balancing Job Creation Between the Private and Public Sectors -/- To counteract capitalism’s job creation failures, a balanced approach that combines private sector entrepreneurship and government-led job creation is essential. -/- A. Private Sector Job Creation -/- The private sector should remain a driving force of economic innovation and employment, but it must be regulated to prevent exploitative practices. Governments can support private-sector job creation by: -/- Providing Financial Assistance to Startups: Low-interest loans and grants can help small businesses grow. -/- Ensuring Fair Competition: Antitrust laws prevent monopolies from dominating industries. -/- Raising Minimum Wages: Ensuring fair wages strengthens consumer spending and business stability. -/- Encouraging Ethical Business Models: Worker cooperatives and profit-sharing models can create sustainable, fair workplaces. -/- B. Government-Led Job Creation -/- Governments must step in where the private sector fails to provide sufficient employment opportunities. Public-sector job creation should focus on: -/- Infrastructure Development: Roads, bridges, schools, and renewable energy projects generate long-term employment. -/- Public Services Expansion: More jobs in healthcare, education, and social services create stable employment. -/- Green Economy Investments: Sustainable industries like clean energy and environmental conservation create new career paths. -/- Universal Job Guarantee Programs: Governments can offer public jobs in times of economic downturns to prevent mass unemployment. -/- By combining private-sector dynamism with public-sector stability, societies can ensure that job creation keeps pace with population growth. -/- 5. The Role of Population Regulation in Economic Stability -/- One of the critical yet often overlooked aspects of economic sustainability is aligning population growth with job availability. Unregulated population expansion can lead to: -/- Unemployment and Underemployment: More people entering the job market than available jobs create economic strain. -/- Increased Poverty and Social Unrest: Large unemployed populations lead to instability and higher crime rates. -/- Strain on Public Services: Overpopulation overwhelms healthcare, education, and infrastructure systems. -/- A. Family Planning and Education -/- Governments must implement policies that encourage responsible population growth through: -/- Access to Contraception and Family Planning Services: Ensuring reproductive health choices empower families to plan their future. -/- Educational Campaigns on Sustainable Population Growth: Teaching the economic impact of overpopulation helps societies make informed decisions. -/- Encouraging Gender Equality and Women’s Employment: Empowering women in the workforce naturally leads to lower birth rates and a more balanced economy. -/- B. Workforce and Immigration Planning -/- Instead of uncontrolled population growth, governments should focus on workforce planning to ensure that job creation aligns with demographic trends: -/- Targeted Immigration Policies: Encouraging skilled immigration in sectors with labor shortages helps maintain economic stability. -/- Retraining and Reskilling Programs: Adapting the workforce to emerging industries prevents large-scale unemployment. -/- Regional Job Distribution: Encouraging businesses to develop outside of major cities can balance employment opportunities across regions. -/- By coordinating population regulation with job market needs, economies can achieve sustainable development and avoid crisis-driven employment gaps. -/- 6. The Importance of Government and Central Bank Policies -/- To stabilize capitalism’s weaknesses, government and central bank intervention using socialist principles is essential. These policies include: -/- Progressive Taxation: Redistributing wealth to fund public services and entrepreneurship programs. -/- Public Investment in Education and Vocational Training: Preparing the workforce for new economic demands. -/- Job-Creation Programs: Investing in sectors that provide stable, long-term employment. -/- Monetary Policies that Promote Sustainable Growth: Controlling inflation, interest rates, and wage growth to prevent economic instability. -/- A coordinated economic strategy ensures that capitalism’s benefits are widely distributed, rather than concentrated among a wealthy elite. -/- 7. Conclusion: A Mixed Economic Model for Sustainable Job Growth -/- Capitalism, by itself, fails to create enough successful entrepreneurs and jobs to match population growth due to its systemic flaws. Wealth concentration, monopolization, financial barriers, and low wages prevent new businesses from thriving and workers from earning enough to sustain economic demand. -/- To correct these imbalances, a mixed economic model—combining capitalist entrepreneurship with government intervention, population regulation, and central bank policies—is necessary. By balancing private-sector innovation with public-sector job creation and aligning workforce growth with sustainable employment opportunities, societies can ensure economic stability, reduce inequality, and promote long-term prosperity. -/- Only through holistic economic planning can nations achieve stable job creation, entrepreneurship growth, and population balance, creating a future where economic progress benefits everyone, not just a privileged few. -/- . (shrink)

The Flow of Money in the Economy: Conversion into Assets and Changing Velocity -/- Money is the lifeblood of an economy, continuously circulating and changing hands in various forms. At its core, all cash flows through the economy by being converted into assets with monetary value. The amount of money in circulation and its velocity—how quickly it moves from one transaction to another—fluctuate over time, shaping economic activity and stability. This essay explores the mechanisms through which money flows, how it (...) is converted into assets, and the dynamic changes in its volume and velocity. -/- The Conversion of Money into Assets -/- Every monetary transaction ultimately results in the conversion of cash into assets, whether tangible or intangible. This transformation occurs through various channels: -/- 1. Consumption and Investment -/- Money is frequently exchanged for goods and services that hold economic value, such as food, housing, and technology. These purchases represent an immediate transformation of cash into assets that provide utility to individuals and businesses. -/- Investments, including stocks, bonds, and real estate, convert money into financial assets that can appreciate in value or generate returns over time. -/- From low-income individuals to billionaires, all spending and investments are ultimately converted into assets with monetary value. These may include consumer goods, luxury items, corporate investments, or large-scale financial portfolios. -/- 2. Banking and Credit Creation -/- Money deposited in banks does not remain idle. Through fractional reserve banking, financial institutions lend out a portion of these deposits, effectively converting cash into new financial assets in the form of loans and credit. -/- This process expands the money supply by creating credit-based assets while maintaining a continuous flow of money within the economy. -/- 3. Government Spending and Taxation -/- Governments collect money through taxes and redistribute it via public expenditures, such as infrastructure projects, social services, and defense. -/- Public spending leads to the creation of physical and human capital assets, contributing to economic growth and societal development. -/- 4. Foreign Trade and Exchange Markets -/- Money flows between economies through imports and exports, converting into international assets. -/- Foreign direct investments (FDI) and currency exchanges further influence the global movement of money, shaping its conversion into diverse forms of assets. -/- The Changing Amount and Velocity of Money -/- While money is always in circulation, its flow rate and volume fluctuate due to several factors: -/- 1. Economic Cycles -/- During economic booms, money moves rapidly as businesses expand, consumers spend more, and investment activity increases. -/- In contrast, recessions slow down the velocity of money as people and businesses hold onto cash, reducing overall economic activity. -/- 2. Inflation and Deflation -/- Inflation decreases the purchasing power of money, leading individuals and companies to spend more quickly before prices rise further, increasing velocity. -/- Deflation has the opposite effect, causing people to hoard money in anticipation of lower prices, thereby slowing economic activity. -/- 3. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates -/- Central banks influence money flow by adjusting interest rates and implementing monetary policies that control liquidity. -/- Lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, accelerating money circulation, while higher rates reduce it. -/- 4. Technological Advances and Digital Payments -/- The rise of digital transactions, mobile banking, and cryptocurrencies has increased the speed of money flow. -/- Faster transaction processing reduces the time money remains idle, enhancing its velocity within the economy. -/- Conclusion -/- The flow of money within an economy is a dynamic process, continuously converting cash into assets while fluctuating in volume and velocity. Every transaction contributes to this transformation, whether through consumption, investment, banking, government activity, or international trade. From everyday consumers to billionaires, all spending and investments ultimately convert into assets with monetary value, reinforcing economic activity at all levels. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike, as managing money supply and velocity effectively determines economic stability and growth. In an era of digital finance and globalized markets, the ability to track and regulate these flows remains both a key challenge and an opportunity for sustaining economic prosperity. -/- . (shrink)

Abstract: -/- This paper introduces a resonance-driven economic model that fundamentally redefines market behavior by replacing traditional equilibrium-based frameworks with dynamic phase-locking principles derived from CODES (Chirality of Dynamic Emergent Systems). While neoclassical, Keynesian, and game-theoretic models treat economic activity as a function of supply and demand equilibria—subject to inefficiencies, speculation, and boom-bust cycles—this paper proposes that markets are structured by resonance fields rather than stochastic fluctuations. -/- By applying prime-phase economic dynamics, we demonstrate that capital flows, debt cycles, and (...) labor efficiency emerge from structured synchronization patterns. These patterns act as entropy minimization mechanisms, governing wealth distribution and innovation cycles in ways that probability-based models fail to capture. Instead of treating economic crises as unpredictable shocks or treating productivity as a linear function of inputs, this framework suggests that economic turbulence and stratification arise from resonance misalignment—a failure to maintain phase coherence across financial, labor, and technological domains. -/- Key implications include: • Redefining capital allocation as a function of coherence optimization, not speculative probability. • Rethinking inflation and deflation as resonance distortions rather than money supply imbalances. • Modeling economic growth as a function of phase-locking efficiency rather than GDP expansion. • Predicting market crashes through coherence instability rather than external shocks. -/- If economics is structured as a resonance system rather than a probabilistic market, then the role of economic policy shifts. Instead of direct interventions such as fiscal stimulus or interest rate adjustments, coherence optimization strategies—aligning labor, innovation, and capital flow structures to minimize systemic entropy—could create self-stabilizing, long-term economic prosperity. This paper explores empirical methods for testing resonance-based market stability, challenges current economic dogma, and provides a pathway for a fundamentally new economic paradigm based on structured emergence rather than equilibrium mechanics. (shrink)

Abstract: This study tries to establish the microfinance and financial inclusion nexus in Nigeria from 1981 to 2017. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, co-integration test and Error Correction Model (ECM), as well as diagnostics and stability test were employed in the analysis. The research findings revealed that microfinance has positive significant effect on financial inclusion in Nigeria in the short–run and long–run. This finding is in line CBN objectives for the establishment of microfinance banks. The effect of lending interest (...) rate has a positive but has no significant with financial inclusion in the model one while it is statistically significant with poverty in Nigeria in the mode two. The positive lending interest rate has a statistically significant effect on the level of financial inclusion and national poverty index used as a proxy for poverty rate in the long run in the models. Also, the research also found that microfinance has really a tool to fight against poverty in Nigeria in the short-run, while it’s not really a tool to fight against poverty in the long-run in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that Government agency and regulatory authority policies and practices need to play a key role in making micro-credit available to the economically-active poor people who are not being served by the formal financial sector. Also, apart from monitoring lending interest rates, the government needs to establish frameworks to prevent undercapitalization, fraudulent practices, and unwarranted interference from bank board members in Nigeria. (shrink)

Findings – As the results, by using 5 steps which are: test for the statistical significance, test for heteroscedasticity, test for multicollinearity test the assumption of normality and test for autocorrelation, a positive relationship is found between Vietnam gold price and USD/VND exchange rate. In detail, the inflation in Vietnam and the nominal interest rate in Vietnam have no statistically significant with the gold price. In statistical significance test, the coefficient for CPI and USD/VND exchange rate (...) are statistical significant but there exists the multicollinearity between CPI and USD/VND exchange rate. To ensure the result, CPI is chosen to remove when comparing R-squared between two regression equations. (shrink)

Before pandemic the world economy had a pre-crisis situation which was characterized by unprecedented imbalances in the global financial and economic system, the lack of growth in world GDP, which posed a real threat to the world economic order. Almost all global analysts predicted a global economic crisis at the end of 2019. For the first time since time immemorial, bank interest rates in all countries have dropped to unprecedented low levels. Often interest rates were 0% or even (...) negative. The EU’s financial system has been so disfigured by the VAT tax that fraud with this tax has reached a scale far exceeding hundreds of billions EUR and in fact got out of control of the authorities. (shrink)

It is difficult to advance a point beyond what Keynes himself commented about his own vision in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money in 1936 (hereafter TGT) in its Chapter 24. It is also difficult to express a deeper thought than what Skidelsky wrote about Chapter 24 of TGT (cf. Skidelsky, 1997). The purpose of this article is to identify whether Chapter 24 of TGT is the gist of Keynes’s legacy, having set the foundations of macroeconomics in (...) the previous 23 Chapters. Relevant topics included in Chapter 24 are the consequences of full employment, the fate of income distribution, the future of overall wealth, the socialization of investment, saving, expectations, the role of the State in economies, the future of financial markets and the interaction between economics and other disciplines. Indeed this Chapter displays Keynes’s genius as a social philosopher, following the tradition of The Economics Possibilities for our Grandchildren (1930). In Chapter 24 he was taking a glance at his product as did Phillip II when he was observing the construction of his castle El Escorial in XVII Spain. Within his vision, is this piece of work a justification of capitalism? Keynes sees the State as both the spender and the employer of last resort, thereby proposing a new role for the government (Skidelsky, 1998). He also suggests a new role for the private sector and reconsiders the interrelation between the two sectors. He is fully optimistic about this issue, which he considers as evolutionary. In addition, Keynes blurs the distinction between economics and sociology, advancing new interdisciplinary hints in his thinking. Keynes is also concerned on the epistemological role of assumptions in order to obtain defensible conclusions. Thereafter the British economist proposes new methods. He was a neo-realist and was against the inductive method. In addition, it can be stated that TGT is grounded on new psychological laws and motivations, that is, on a new vision of humankind, especially the analyzed chapter. His topics are the bypassing of Classical Economics; the destiny of macroeconomics in both theoretical and policy terms, highlighting new roles for interest rates; savers and rentiers; and the relevance of the concepts of ideas, interests and power. In all these respects Keynes is once again far ahead of his time. Finally a debatable topic dealt with by Keynes in Chapter 24 of TGT is 1 PhD in Economics, Lancaster University, UK; Professor-researcher at ISEC Universidad de Negocios, Mexico City. socialisation of investment. This is in words of Skidelsky, a shift in the balance of social power. Keynes is thus in Chapter 24 of TGT a visionary and an idealist, a reformer, and certainly a trans-generational thinker. When he talks about the passion of thriftiness and the setting of reasonable financial rewards arising from financial instruments he is advancing explications for financial crises in terms of speculation. The open conclusion is that Chapter 24 contains the gist of Keynes’s mature philosophical thinking and legacy, confirming that for him attitudes are one of the most relevant issues in life. In addition, he considers that both social and psychological elements are necessary for a thorough understanding of economic issues and their consequences, such as peace and happiness. Section 1 is an introduction. Section 2 is both a literature review and a summary of Keynes’s general philosophical insights. Section 3 is an analysis of Chapter 24 of TGT in the specific fields of Epistemology, Ethics, Ontology, and Political and Social Philosophy. Section 4 is a conclusion. References are listed at the end of the article. Keywords: Keynes, philosophy of economics, social philosophy, epistemology, method, ethics, ontology, uncertainty, full employment, income distribution, wealth, euthanasia of the rentier, saving, socialization of investment, O’Donnell, Carabelli, Fitzgibbons, Skidelsky. (shrink)

The LIBOR Market Model has become one of the most popular models for pricing interest rate products. It is commonly believed that Monte-Carlo simulation is the only viable method available for the LIBOR Market Model. In this article, however, we propose a lattice approach to price interest rate products within the LIBOR Market Model by introducing a shifted forward measure and several novel fast drift approximation methods. This model should achieve the best performance without losing much (...) accuracy. Moreover, the calibration is almost automatic and it is simple and easy to implement. Adding this model to the valuation toolkit is actually quite useful; especially for risk management or in the case there is a need for a quick turnaround. (shrink)

Vietnamese media keep telling the public about the problem of rising financial burdens caused by interest rates and shrinking funds availability, pushing many non-financial SMEs to the verge of collapse. However, little attention was paid to the issue of rising inventories at manufacturing and processing firms, which potentially could lead to more emergent and apparent risks.

The one-side defaultable financial derivatives valuation problems have been studied extensively, but the valuation of bilateral derivatives with asymmetric credit qualities is still lacking convincing mechanism. This paper presents an analytical model for valuing derivatives subject to default by both counterparties. The default-free interest rates are modeled by the Market Models, while the default time is modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us (...) a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread. (shrink)

Many philosophers of physics think that physical rates of change, like velocity or acceleration in classical physics, are extrinsic. Many philosophers of mind think that phenomenal properties, which characterize what it’s like to be an agent at a time, are intrinsic. I will argue that these two views can’t both be true. Given that these two views are in tension, we face an explanatory challenge. Why should there be any interesting connection between these physical quantities and consciousness in the first (...) place? In a speculative spirit, I close by developing a panpsychist view which promises to explain this connection in a particularly satisfying way. (shrink)

The research aims to identify the trends of Palestinian higher educational institutions in Gaza Strip as learning organizations from the perspective of senior management in the Palestinian universities in Gaza Strip. The researchers used descriptive analytical approach and used the questionnaire as a tool for information gathering. The questionnaires were distributed to senior management in the Palestinian universities. The study population reached (344) employees in senior management is dispersed over (3) Palestinian universities. A stratified random sample of (182) employees from (...) the Palestinian universities was selected and the recovery rate was (69.2%). Statistical analysis (SPSS) program was used for analysis and processing the data. The study found the following results: There is an agreement about: the importance of the focus of "organizational structure" with an average approval, the importance of "technological infrastructure" axis with high approval, and the importance of "strategic" with an average approval. The results concluded that the study sample agree on the importance of "organizational dimension" highly. The results showed that the sample believe that the "strategic leadership" level in the universities got medium-approval. There is a fair level agreement about the axis of interest "teams / committees". There is an agreement about the importance of the "human dimension" moderately. The results showed that the sample is highly agreed about the importance of focus of the "knowledge management", and the focus of the "continuing education". They agreed weakly to somewhat about the importance of the focus of "scientific research", moderately agree about the importance of the center of "institutional culture", agree moderately on the importance of "cognitive dimension". The results showed that the sample largely agree on the importance of the focus of "strategic partnerships and alliances". They agree highly on the axis "keep up with the labor market" and on the focus of the importance of "technology incubators". The results showed that the sample moderately agree about the importance of the theme on "consulting and training", the importance of the focus of "social responsibility", and the focus of the "Community dimension". The study found a group of recommendations including: there is a need to provide suitable environment that achieve learning organizations. There is a need to develop the technological infrastructure (hardware, software, networks, databases, and human skills) because of the great advantages that they offer. The universities need to adopt knowledge management in the academic and administrative departments because knowledge is the core of the work of these departments. The establishment of technology incubators in universities to adopt outstanding university research projects, to protect, to supports, and to market them; furthermore, to develop the capabilities and skills of employees in the field of information technology. (shrink)

Value capture occurs when an agent’s values are rich and subtle; they enter a social environment that presents simplified — typically quantified — versions of those values; and those simplified articulations come to dominate their practical reasoning. Examples include becoming motivated by FitBit’s step counts, Twitter Likes and Re-tweets, citation rates, ranked lists of best schools, and Grade Point Averages. We are vulnerable to value capture because of the competitive advantage that such crisp and clear expressions of value have in (...) our private reasoning and our public justification. There is, however, a price. In value capture, we take a central component of our autonomy — our ongoing deliberation over the exact articulation of our values — and we outsource it. And the metrics to which we outsource usually engineered for the interests of some external force, like a large-scale institution’s interest in cross-contextual comprehensibility and quick aggregability. That outsourcing cuts off one of the key benefits to personal deliberation. In value capture, we no longer adjust our values and their articulations in light of own rich experience of the world. Our values should often be carefully tailored to our particular selves or our small-scale communities, but in value capture, we buy our values off the rack. In some cases – like decreasing CO2 emissions – the costs of non-tailored values are outweighed by the benefit of precise collective coordination. In other cases, like in our aesthetic lives, they are not. This suggests that we should want different values suited to different scales. We should want value federalism. Some values are perhaps best pursued at the largest-scale level, others at smaller scales. The problem occurs when we exhibit an excess preference for the largest-scale values – when we consistently let the universal metrics swamp our quieter interests. (shrink)

Objective: In this study, it is aimed to examine the characteristics and publication rates of oral presentations presented in national congresses. Methods: The data about the oral presentations in national anatomy congresses (from 2016 to 2021), including the number of contributing institutions, the institutions that contributed the most oral presentations each year, and the publication rates of the oral presentations in the journals scanned in different indexes. In the study, the titles and the keywords were scanned using Google Scholar and (...) Web of Science, and journal index details were noted. Results: Of the national congresses we examined in our study, the most oral presentations (193) were the congress in 2019 and the least oral presentations (47) were the congress in 2017. The publication rate of oral presentations was highest in the papers of the congress in 2016 (42%) and at least in the papers of the congress in 2019 (13%). None of the oral presentations in the last congress held in 2021 were published until the time of our study. Large proportions (34%) of the papers that are accepted as oral presentations and published are radiological studies. 70% of the publications were published in journals indexed in Web of Science. Conclusion: For both new and senior academics, congresses offer a useful and distinctive setting. Congress papers showcase the scientific opportunities and interests of various universities while also providing opportunities for collaboration. Attendance at a conference is significantly influenced by its location, timing, and financial situation. (shrink)

One of the reasons why most of us feel puzzled about the problem of abortion is that we want, and do not want, to allow to the unborn child the rights that belong to adults and children. When we think of a baby about to be born it seems absurd to think that the next few minutes or even hours could make so radical a difference to its status; yet as we go back in the life of the fetus we (...) are more and more reluctant to say that this is a human being and must be treated as such. No doubt this is the deepest source of our dilemma, but it is not the only one. For we are also confused about the general question of what we may and may not do where the interests of human beings conflict. We have strong intuitions about certain cases; saying, for instance, that it is all right to raise the level of education in our country, though statistics allow us to predict that a rise in the suicide rate will follow, while it is not all right to kill the feeble-minded to aid cancer research. It is not easy, however, to see the principles involved, and one way of throwing light on the abortion issue will be by setting up parallels involving adults or children once born. So we will be able to isolate the “equal rights” issue and should be able to make some advance... (shrink)

In an age of pervasive digitization, students' limited familiarity with the vast realm of information poses a significant challenge. This study investigates the hurdles faced by university students in terms of internet access and information retrieval. Objectives encompass understanding the impact of internet access challenges on academic performance, exploring factors influencing students' lack of interest in enhancing internet skills, and identifying barriers to effective internet utilization. Methodologically, a survey approach is adopted, involving 160 purposively selected students as respondents. A (...) structured questionnaire is used for data collection, distributed through Google Forms, resulting in a comprehensive 100% response rate. The study's theoretical foundation rests on the Use and Gratification Theory and Digital Divide Theory, highlighting digital literacy's importance in education. Key findings support alternative hypotheses, revealing the influence of internet connectivity challenges on academic performance, citing factors like cost, inertia, intent, and digital literacy. In conclusion, the study underscores students' reliance on smartphones for internet access, proposing specialized instruction, self-driven skill enhancement, and collaborative efforts to enhance internet accessibility and affordability. Recommendations emphasize specialized instruction, self-driven skill improvement, and collaborative efforts to enhance affordable internet access. Ultimately, tackling these challenges empowers students to navigate the digital landscape and leverage its potential effectively. (shrink)

There has been growing interest in the evaluation of research projects in Africa because of the quantum of funding devoted to research by governmental and non-governmental organizations. One area that has received a lot of research funding is farmer-herder conflicts due to its high impact on peace, security and development on the continent. This paper evaluates a Danida-funded research project in the Ashanti Region of Ghana dubbed “Access-Authority Nexus in Farmer-Herder Conflicts (AAN Project)”. Primary data was collected from 46 (...) project stakeholders during a project review meeting. Each stakeholder responded to a questionnaire distributed to them and later explained for them to have a common understanding of it before providing responses. The OECD DAC Network on Project Development Assessment Framework was adapted to evaluate the project success. Stakeholders’ perceived project success was evaluated using Perception Index while project success criteria were assessed using correlation analysis. The results show that stakeholders perceived the AAN project to be effective in achieving its objectives of investigating the formation and erosion of access associated with the conflicts, capacity building and information dissemination to stakeholders. They also perceived it to be relevant to farmer-herder peaceful co-existence, and coherent with other existing interventions in the conflict area. The results further show that stakeholders recognized the project to have impacted positively on the number of conflict cases and their effects on livelihoods and state building Overall, they rated the project’s achievements as sustainable. The implication of the findings is that research is still necessary for the effective management of the farmer-herder conflicts despite the numerous research work already done on it. (shrink)

Overall, it is first rate with accurate, sensitive and penetrating accounts of his life and thought in roughly chronological order, but, inevitably (ie, like everyone else) it fails, in my view, to place his work in proper context and gets some critical points wrong. It is not made clear that philosophy is armchair psychology and that W was a pioneer in what later became cognitive or evolutionary psychology. One would not surmise from this book that he laid out the (...) foundations of the modern concept of intentionality (roughly, personality or higher order thought) which has been further advanced by many (most notably in philosophy by John Searle in “The Construction of Social Reality” and “Rationality in Action”). There is no clear explanation of how W defined the class of potential actions, which he called dispositions or inclinations, (now often called propositional attitudes), differentiating them from perceptions, memories and actions and showing how they lack truth value. He notes that W spent much of his time discussing the foundations of mathematics but fails to provide any explanation as to how this relates to his work on language and logic. In fact, as W came to realize, they are all names for groups of functions of our innate psychology with many differences and none are dependent on the others. It is not really made clear that all our behavior depends on the unquestionable axioms of our evolved psychology and thus differs totally from the testable empirical facts which they enable us to discover. It is not explained that W’s frequent references to “grammar” and to “language games” refer to our innate psychology. All these failings are the norm in behavioral studies. -/- He notes that W described thinking and other dispositions or inclinations (W’s terms)-- (ie, judging, feeling, remembering, believing etc)-- as behaviors and not as mental activities but I don’t see that he really makes it clear that another pioneering discovery of W’s was that dispositions describe public actions and cannot be mental phenomena for the same reason that he so famously rejected the possibility of a private language. -/- He repeatedly and correctly notes (eg, p176) that the core of W’s work is the nature of language but (again the universal failing) does not make it clear that language is for humans (as opposed to animals) almost coextensive with thought (public behavior as W insisted) and thus with our evolved psychology. Like most people, philosophers or not, Kanterian has not followed W and taken the final step towards understanding and describing behavior from an evolutionary standpoint, the only viewpoint that makes sense of it, or indeed of anything. -/- Those wishing a comprehensive up to date framework for human behavior from the modern two systems view may consult my book ‘The Logical Structure of Philosophy, Psychology, Mind and Language in Ludwig Wittgenstein and John Searle’ 2nd ed (2019). Those interested in more of my writings may see ‘Talking Monkeys--Philosophy, Psychology, Science, Religion and Politics on a Doomed Planet--Articles and Reviews 2006-2019 3rd ed (2019), The Logical Structure of Human Behavior (2019), and Suicidal Utopian Delusions in the 21st Century 4th ed (2019). (shrink)

In bioethics, the predominant categorization of various types of influence has been a tripartite classification of rational persuasion (meaning influence by reason and argument), coercion (meaning influence by irresistible threats—or on a few accounts, offers), and manipulation (meaning everything in between). The standard ethical analysis in bioethics has been that rational persuasion is always permissible, and coercion is almost always impermissible save a few cases such as imminent threat to self or others. However, many forms of influence fall into the (...) broad middle terrain—and this terrain is in desperate need of conceptual refining and ethical analysis in light of recent interest in using principles from behavioral science to influence health decisions and behaviors. This paper aims to address the neglected space between rational persuasion and coercion in bioethics. First, I argue for conceptual revisions that include removing the “manipulation” label and relabeling this space “nonargumentative]influence,” with two subtypes: “reason-bypassing” and “reason-countering.” Second, I argue that bioethicists have made the mistake of relying heavily on the conceptual categories themselves for normative work and instead should assess the ethical permissibility of a particular instance of influence by asking several key ethical questions, which I elucidate, that relate to (1) the impact of the form of influence on autonomy and (2) the relationship between the influencer and the influenced. Finally, I apply my analysis to two examples of nonargumentative influence in health care and health policy: (1) governmental agencies such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) trying to influence the public to be healthier using nonargumentative measures such as vivid images on cigarette packages to make more salient the negative effects of smoking, and (2) a physician framing a surgery in terms of survival rates instead of mortality rates to influence her patient to consent to the surgery. (shrink)

In recent work, the interrelated questions of whether there is a fundamental level to reality, whether ontological dependence must have an ultimate ground, and whether the monist thesis should be endorsed that the whole universe is ontologically prior to its parts have been explored with renewed interest. Jonathan Schaffer has provided arguments in favour of 'priority monism' in a series of articles (2003, 2004, 2007a, 2007b, forthcoming). In this paper, these arguments are analysed, and it is claimed that they (...) are not compelling: in particular, the possibility that there is no ultimate level of basic entities that compose everything else is on a par with the possibility of infinite 'upward' complexity. The idea that we must, at any rate, postulate an ontologically fundamental level for methodological reasons ( Cameron 2008 ) is also discussed and found unconvincing: all things considered, there may be good reasons for endorsing 'metaphysical infinitism'. In any event, a higher degree of caution in formulating metaphysical claims than found in the extant literature appears advisable. (shrink)

The setting of evidential standards is a core practice of scientific assessment for policy. Persuaded by considerations of inductive risk, philosophers generally agree that the justification of evidential standards must appeal to non-epistemic values but debate whether the balance of non-epistemic reasons favours varying evidential standards versus maintaining fixed high evidential standards in assessment, as both sets of standards promote different and important political virtues of advisory institutions. In this paper, I adjudicate the evidential standards debate by developing a novel (...) argument from justice, drawing on the IPCC’s assessment of climate impacts as a case study. I argue that in assessments marked by background evidential inequality, maintaining fixed high evidential standards results in an unequal distribution of ‘epistemic power’ among stakeholders, producing a ‘powerful assessment’ for the data-rich (a high rate of findings) and a ‘weak assessment’ for the data-poor (a low rate of findings). Where such inequalities of epistemic power disadvantage those in data-poor regions with respect to fundamental interests, such as basic human rights, we have decisive reasons of justice to vary evidential standards. (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Philosophy, Psychiatry, & Psychology 12.3 (2005) 257-259 [Access article in PDF] Atrocity, Banality, Self-Deception Adam Morton Keywords evil, self-deception, banality, atrocity, motivation When talking about evil we must make a fundamental choice about how we are to use the term. We may use it as half of the contrast "good versus evil," in which case it covers everything that is not good. That includes moral incompetence, lack of imagination, (...) willingness to follow orders, overreactions, and a host of other reasons why people who do not have personalities that we would call evil do things that are wrong, often very wrong. Call this the weak reading of evil: evil as wrongdoing. Or we may use it with the meaning suggested by "evil person," "really evil act," "the evil lurking in all of us," and other such idioms. If we do this, we focus on a particular class of actions, and the motives and people that produce them, that arouse a particular moral revulsion in us. Call this the strong reading of evil: evil as atrocity (for more on this contrast see Morton [2004] and Card [2002]).Kubarych, following Peck, thinks of evil in the strong way. Most of the time at any rate: Some of the philosophers, such as Kant, that he draws on are thinking of evil in the weak way, and some of his quotations are from the German, where good/bad/evil distinctions are not drawn in the same way as in English. He explores a general explanation of evil that seems to be targeted at the psychology of extremely abhorrent actions. But, I argue, his account is in danger of collapse in either of two directions. Depending on how we interpret Kubarych's account, it could turn out that it describes all wrongdoing as evil, or, making some different choices, it could turn out that there are no really evil people.The strong reading of evil is definitely the most interesting and potentially fruitful. After all, we have no shortage of satisfying explanations of why people lie to get out of unwelcome appointments, steal to support their children or their drug habits, or defraud investors to become rich. But we do feel deeply puzzled by those who commit torture, serial murder, or genocide. We ask of these people not so much "Why did he do it?" as "How could he do it?" We feel the need of a philosophical or psychological theory that can give us even a slight handle of these people and their deeds. There are two risks associated with the project of explaining atrocity, though. The first is the risk of accepting unsatisfactory accounts, just because they purport to explain what we desperately want to understand. The second is the risk of supposing that there is a single explanation when the causes of the phenomenon are in fact too varied. On other topics these two risks have often combined to make people believe what seem to us now to be evident falsehoods. Humans have often for example wanted to know the causes of disease, and as a result have accepted blanket explanations, in terms of [End Page 257] evil spirits or lack of faith, that seem ludicrous to us now that we have a better grasp of the variety of factors that can cause our bodies to misfunction. So before asking naively "Why and how can people do these awful things?" we should ask "Is there a deeper causal unity here, beyond the fact that we react to these acts with horror?"My suspicion is that there is not much unity, that it is asking too much to want a common profile to the psychology of serial killers, or of proponents of genocide, let alone a profile that applies across these and other categories. What we can do, I believe, is describe our concept of evil in such a way that we can leave some parameters to be filled in by a large variety of objective psychological factors. Even this runs the risk that the really relevant factors cannot be forced into the role that the philosophical account requires. In... (shrink)

Many philosophical debates take for granted that there is such a thing as ‘the’ common-sense conception of the phenomenon of interest. Debates about the nature of perception tend to take for granted that there is a single, coherent common-sense conception of vision, consistent with Direct Realism. This conception is often accorded an epistemic default status. We draw on philosophical and psychological literature on naïve theories and belief fragmentation to motivate the hypothesis that untutored common sense encompasses conflicting Direct Realist (...) and Indirect Realist conceptions: there is no such thing as ‘the’ common-sense conception of vision that could enjoy epistemic default status. To examine this hypothesis, a survey administered an agreement rating task with verbal and pictorial stimuli to lay participants. We found many laypeople simultaneously hold conflicting Direct Realist and Indirect Realist beliefs about vision. Against common assumptions, Direct Realist beliefs are not clearly dominant, and consistent adherence to Direct Realism is not the norm, but the exception. These findings are consistent with recent accounts of belief fragmentation. They forcefully challenge common methodology in philosophical debates about the nature of perception and beyond. (shrink)

Wild animal reproduction poses an important moral problem for animal rights theorists. Many wild animals give birth to large numbers of uncared-for offspring, and thus child mortality rates are far higher in nature than they are among human beings. In light of this reproductive strategy – traditionally referred to as the ‘r-strategy’ – does concern for the interests of wild animals require us to intervene in nature? In this paper, I argue that animal rights theorists should embrace fallibility-constrained interventionism: the (...) view that intervention in nature is desirable but should be constrained by our ignorance of the inner workings of ecosystems. Though authors sometimes assume that large-scale intervention requires turning nature into an enormous zoo, I suggest an alternative. With sufficient research, a new form of gene editing called CRISPR promises to one day give us the capacity to intervene without perpetually interfering with wild animals’ liberties. (shrink)

This paper aims to identify the decision support systems and their role on the strategic management development in the Universities- Case Study: Islamic University of Gaza. The descriptive approach was used where a questionnaire was developed and distributed to a stratified random sample. (230) questionnaires were distributed and (204) were returned with response rate (88.7%). The most important findings of the study: The presence of a statistically significant positive correlation between the decision support systems and strategic management in the (...) Islamic University in Gaza, and this shows that there is a role for decision support systems in strategic management development. The senior management is convinced of the importance of strategic management of the organization, and this conviction paid to clearly understand the process of the development of strategic management and thus led to a commitment to this process to improve its performance. There is an impact on the strategic management of the capabilities available for the use of decision support systems, and the type of decision support systems used, while there is little effect of top management support for the use of decision support systems. Also, the results showed that there were no statistically significant differences between the averages of the respondents answers attributed to personal data. The research also concluded a series of recommendations: The Islamic University of Gaza need to develop its infrastructure of decision support systems when it develops the strategic management. It should increase its interest in organizational potential through the necessity of a separate unit for decision support systems. As well as increased interest in the physical and technical capabilities available to decision support systems through continuity in keeping pace with technological means and techniques, continued support of senior management in the organization of strategic management for its positive role on decision support systems, that senior management will continue in the organization in creating a culture of strategic management, and it should encourage employees to participate in the strategic management process. (shrink)

Abstract— This study aimed to identify the degree of use of the capabilities of decision-support systems in Palestinian institutions higher education, Aqsa University in Gaza - a case study. The study used a analytical descriptive approach, and the researchers used the of questionnaire tool to collect the data, the researchers using stratified random sample distributed (150) questioners to the study population and (126) was obtained back with rate of 84%. The study showed that the most important results are: that (...) senior management supports the existence of decision support systems and that there is approval by the respondents on the paragraphs of the use of the capabilities of decision support systems in general. And that there are no significant differences between the averages of the answers of respondents differences about the degree of use of decision support systems capabilities attributed to personal data. The study also concluded a series of recommendations including: increasing the adoption of the senior management decision support in their decision-making systems. And increased regulatory attention to the potential available to decision support systems directly to the senior management in the Palestinian universities in the Gaza Strip. There is an increased interest in the physical and technical possibilities available for the use of decision support systems. There is an increased interest in human potential available for the use of decision support systems. Investment of information available to universities in building the capacities of integration techniques and other information technology capabilities. The empowerment of human resources in universities and participating in making decisions concerning the construction of the capabilities of information technology. (shrink)

Craig Callender [2022] provides a novel challenge to the non-arbitrariness principle. His challenge plays an important role in his argument for the rational permissibility of a non-exponential temporal discounting rate. But the challenge is also of wider interest: it raises significant questions about whether we ought to accept the non-arbitrariness principle as a constraint on rational preferences. In this paper, I present two reasons to resist Callender’s challenge. First, I present a reason to reject his claim that the (...) non-arbitrariness principle only targets pure time preferences. Second, I criticize the inference Callender draws from a modest claim to a much stronger claim. The modest claim is that it can be hard to reveal the contents of an agent’s preferences. The stronger claim is that this provides us with a reason to reject a certain kind of normative constraint on rational preferences. I argue that the modest claim doesn’t motivate the stronger claim. The upshot of my two arguments is good news for those sympathetic to the non-arbitrariness principle: Callender’s challenge can be overcome, at least as it currently stands. (shrink)

The study aimed at measuring the dominant pattern of leadership and its relation to the performance of the administrative staff in the Palestinian universities. The study community consists of all the administrative staff from Al-Azhar University and the Islamic University, and through the census of the study society it was found to consist of (655) administrative staff. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the researchers used the method of random sample in the study, and the study was (...) conducted on a sample of (221) administrative staff of the surveyed universities and the response rate was (82.35%). The study found that there is a high degree of satisfaction with the Dominant Pattern of Leadership in the Palestinian universities in Gaza Strip from the point of view of the administrative staff, which reached (71.67%). There is a high level of performance from the point of view of administrative staff, with a percentage of (82.53%). There is a direct correlation between the dominant pattern of leadership and the functional Performance of Administrative Staff, the absence of differences between the sample according to the gender variable in their perception of the dominant pattern of leadership and the functional Performance of Administrative Staff, the absence of differences in the perception of employees of the dominant pattern of leadership and the functional Performance of Administrative Staff depending on the age variable. There are differences of statistical significance according to the variable of scientific qualification in the Dominant Pattern of Leadership, while there were no differences in performance, the differences in the dominant pattern of leadership according to the scientific qualification were in favor of those who obtained the diploma degree compared to other practical qualifications, the absence of differences in the perception of employees of the dominant pattern of leadership and the functional Performance of Administrative Staff depending on the variable years of service, the absence of differences in the perception of employees of the dominant pattern of leadership and the functional Performance of Administrative Staff depending on the variable level of career (Director, Head of Department, and Administrative Officer). There were differences in the perception of workers to the dominant pattern of leadership depending on the variable of the workplace, where there were differences in favor of workers in deanships and colleges compared with the workers in the technical departments. While there were no differences in job performance according to the workplace variable, the existence of differences in the perception of workers to the dominant pattern of leadership depending on the university in which they work in favor of the Islamic University and the absence of differences in performance between the Islamic University and Al-Azhar University. The study reached a number of recommendations, the most important of which is that the interest of the managements of the Palestinian universities in improving the dominant pattern of leadership, to give universities the opportunity to participate in decision-making, the continued administration of universities interest and continuous improvement of the performance of its employees, enhance the periodic evaluation of job performance and to inform employees and express their opinion, solving workers' problems and giving them the opportunity to contribute to solving their own problems, the use of the staff rotation method periodically and strengthening the democratic the dominant pattern of leadership and empowering university staff. -/- . (shrink)

The study aimed to identify the level of promotion of entrepreneurship in the technical colleges in Palestine. The analytical descriptive method was used in the study. A questionnaire of 41 items was randomly distributed to the technical colleges in the Gaza Strip. The random sample consisted of (275) employees from the mentioned colleges, and the response rate were (74.5%). The results of the study showed that the technical colleges achieved a high level of promotion of entrepreneurship with a relative (...) weight of 73.45%. The results of the study showed that there is a high level of promotion of entrepreneurship (risk, preparedness, proactive competition, innovation orientation) in the technical colleges in Gaza Strip. The field of competition came in first place with a relative weight of 76.65%. In the second place came the field (the trend towards innovation) and relative weight (74.96%). In the third place came the field of pre-emptive preparedness with a relative weight of 74.07%. In the fourth and last place came the field of risk and a relative weight of 68.39%. The results confirmed that there are statistically significant differences in the promotion of entrepreneurship in the technical colleges in Gaza Strip due to the college variable in favor of UCAS. The results confirmed that there is no statistically significant relationship in the promotion of entrepreneurship in technical colleges in Gaza Strip due to the variable level of employment. The researchers suggest a set of recommendations, the most important of which is to draw the attention of the technical colleges to the importance of promoting entrepreneurship, because of their role in reducing the problem of unemployment, the importance of linking technical education and promoting entrepreneurship to the Palestinian society in general and Gaza Strip in particular. The importance of urging decision-makers in technical colleges to promote interest in leadership and to put their own courses in all technical education programs in these colleges, as well as enhancing the technical, technological and technical capabilities of technical education and keeping pace with the latest international standards by providing the necessary material resources. There is a need to urge researchers to conduct further studies of the future which deal with the same variables of the current study in the field of entrepreneurship and applied to other sectors. (shrink)