The proposed paper presents an argument in favor of a Rawlsian approach to ethics for Internet technology companies (den Hoven & Rooksby, 2008; Hoffman, 2017). Ethics statements from such companies are analyzed and shown to be utilitarian and teleological in nature, and therefore in opposition to Rawls’ theories of justice and fairness. The statements are also shown to have traits in common with Confucian virtue ethics (Ames, 2011; Nylan, 2008).

Lately in the past couple of years, there are an increasing in the normal rate of playing computer games or video games compared to the E-learning content that are introduced for the safety of our children, and the impact of the video game addictiveness that ranges from (Musculoskeletal issues, Vision problems and Obesity). Furthermore, this paper introduce an intelligent tutoring system for both parent and their children for enhancement the experience of gaming and tell us about the health problems and (...) how we can solve them, with an easy user interface that way can our children be happy and excited about the information and their health. (shrink)

Plagiarism detection is the process of finding similarities on electronic based documents. Recently, this process is highly required because of the large number of available documents on the internet and the ability to copy and paste the text of relevant documents with simply Control+C and Control+V commands. The proposed solution is to investigate and develop an easy, fast, and multi-language support plagiarism detector with the easy of one click to detect the document plagiarism. This process will be done with the (...) support of intelligent system that can learn, change and adapt to the input document and make a cross-fast search for the content on the local repository and the online repository and link the content of the file with the matching content everywhere found. Furthermore, the supported document type that we will use is word, text and in some cases, the pdf files –where is the text can be extracting from them- and this made possible by using the DLL file from Word application that Microsoft provided on OS. The using of DLL will let us to not constrain on how to get the text from files; and will help us to apply the file on our Delphi project and walk throw our methodology and read the file word by word to grantee the best working scenarios for the calculation. In the result, this process will help in the uprising the documents quality and enhance the writer experience related to his work and will save the copyrights for the official writer of the documents by providing a new alternative tool for plagiarism detection problem for easy and fast use to the concerned Institutions for free. (shrink)

Abstract: The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into leadership practices is rapidly transforming organizational dynamics and decision-making processes. This paper explores the ways in which AI enhances leadership effectiveness by providing data- driven insights, optimizing decision-making, and automating routine tasks. Additionally, it examines the challenges leaders face when adopting AI, including ethical considerations, potential biases in AI systems, and the need for upskilling. By analyzing current applications of AI in leadership and discussing future trends, this study aims to offer a (...) comprehensive overview of the opportunities AI presents for effective leadership, as well as the strategies required to address its associated challenges. (shrink)

Multilegalism is a species of legal pluralism denoting the existence of quasi-autonomous “minority jurisdictions” for at least some legal matters within a “normal” state jurisdiction. Multiculturalism in the advocatory sense might provide the justification for establishing such minority jurisdictions. This paper aims to provide 1) a detailed idea about what such a multicultural multilegal arrangement would amount to and how it differs from certain related concepts and legal frameworks, 2) in what sense some standard multicultural arguments could provide a starting (...) point for seriously considering multicultural multilegalism in practice, 3) how the idea fares against some standard liberal criticisms, and finally 4), to point out three salient problems for multilegalism, concerning a) choice of law problems, b) a dilemma facing us as to whether state supremacy should be upheld or not, and c) clashes with basic human rights. (shrink)

Lately in the past couple of years, there are an increasing in the normal rate of playing computer games or video games compared to the E-learning content that are introduced for the safety of our children, and the impact of the video game addictiveness that ranges from (Musculoskeletal issues, Vision problems and Obesity). Furthermore, this paper introduce an intelligent tutoring system for both parent and their children for enhancement the experience of gaming and tell us about the health problems and (...) how we can solve them, with an easy user interface that way can our children be happy and excited about the information and their health. (shrink)

In the exploratory study reported here, we tested the efficacy of an intervention designed to train teenagers with Möbius syndrome (MS) to increase the use of alternative communication strategies (e.g., gestures) to compensate for their lack of facial expressivity. Specifically, we expected the intervention to increase the level of rapport experienced in social interactions by our participants. In addition, we aimed to identify the mechanisms responsible for any such increase in rapport. In the study, five teenagers with MS interacted with (...) three naïve participants without MS before the intervention, and with three different naïve participants without MS after the intervention. Rapport was assessed by self-report and by behavioral coders who rated videos of the interactions. Individual non-verbal behavior was assessed via behavioral coders, whereas verbal behavior was automatically extracted from the sound files. Alignment was assessed using cross recurrence quantification analysis and mixed-effects models. The results showed that observer-coded rapport was greater after the intervention, whereas self-reported rapport did not change significantly. Observer-coded gesture and expressivity increased in participants with and without MS, whereas overall linguistic alignment decreased. Fidgeting and repetitiveness of verbal behavior also decreased in both groups. In sum, the intervention may impact non-verbal and verbal behavior in participants with and without MS, increasing rapport as well as overall gesturing, while decreasing alignment. (shrink)

Nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm đánh giá thực trạng hành vi và mức độ tiếp cận giáo dục về vấn đề rác thải nhựa của học sinh trung học phổ thông ở khu vực Miền Trung. Kết quả khảo sát trên 2183 học sinh thuộc 10 tỉnh thành ở Miền Trung trong khoảng thời gian từ tháng 9 tới tháng 12 năm 2022 cho thấy: mặc dù, nhận thức của học sinh về vấn đề rác thải nhựa tương (...) đối cao song kiến thức và hành vi đối với vấn đề rác thải nhựa vẫn còn nhiều hạn chế; công tác giáo dục về rác thải nhựa hiện nay trong các trường học chủ yếu ở mức thỉnh thoảng thực hiện và hiệu quả chưa thật sự cao như kì vọng; hành vi đối với vấn đề rác thải nhựa của học sinh có sự khác biệt liên quan tới giới tính; khối lớp và giữa các địa bàn nghiên cứu. Kết quả nghiên cứu là cơ sở để đề xuất các biện pháp giáo dục phù hợp cho học sinh trung học phổ thông tại các tỉnh Miền Trung. [This study evaluates the current status of behavior and level of access to education on the issue of plastic waste among high school students in Central Vietnam. Survey results on 2,183 students from 10 provinces and cities in the Central region from September to December 2022 show that although students' awareness of the plastic waste issue is relatively high, but their knowledge and behavior towards plastic waste still has many limitations; current education about plastic waste in schools is mainly done occasionally, and the effectiveness is lower than expected; students' behavior towards plastic waste has gender-related differences; grade levels and between research areas. The research results are the basis for proposing appropriate educational measures for high school students in Central Vietnam.]. (shrink)

Today’s everyone normal life can include a normal rate of playing computer games or video games; but what about an excessive or compulsive use of video games that impact on our life? Our kids, who usually spend a lot of time in playing video games will likely have a trouble in paying attention to their school lessons. In this paper, we introduce an expert system to help users in getting the correct diagnosis of the health problem of video game addictions (...) that range from (Musculoskeletal issues, Vision problems and Obesity). Moreover, this expert system provides information about the problem and tell us how we can solve it. SL5 Object expert system language was used to design and implement the expert system. (shrink)

Hegel's influence on post-Hegelian philosophy is as profound as it is ambiguous. Modern philosophy is philosophy after Hegel. Taking leave of Hegel's system appears to be a common feature of modern and post-modern thought. One could even argue that giving up Hegel's claim of totality defines philosophy after Hegel. Modern and post-modern philosophies are philosophies of finitude: Hegel's philosophy cannot be repeated. However, its status as a negative backdrop for modern and post-modern thought already shows its pervasive influence. Precisely in (...) its criticism of Hegel, modern thought is bound up with his thinking. (shrink)

About a British Academy collection of papers on Bayes' famous theorem.

A fundamental problem in science is how to make logical inferences from scientific data. Mere data does not suffice since additional information is necessary to select a domain of models or hypotheses and thus determine the likelihood of each model or hypothesis. Thomas Bayes’ Theorem relates the data and prior information to posterior probabilities associated with differing models or hypotheses and thus is useful in identifying the roles played by the known data and the assumed prior information when making inferences. (...) Scientists, philosophers, and theologians accumulate knowledge when analyzing different aspects of reality and search for particular hypotheses or models to fit their respective subject matters. Of course, a main goal is then to integrate all kinds of knowledge into an all-encompassing worldview that would describe the whole of reality. A generous description of the whole of reality would span, in the order of complexity, from the purely physical to the supernatural. These two extreme aspects of reality are bridged by a nonphysical realm, which would include elements of life, man, consciousness, rationality, mental and mathematical abstractions, etc. An urgent problem in the theory of knowledge is what science is and what it is not. Albert Einstein’s notion of science in terms of sense perception is refined by defining operationally the data that makes up the subject matter of science. It is shown, for instance, that theological considerations included in the prior information assumed by Isaac Newton is irrelevant in relating the data logically to the model or hypothesis. In addition, the concepts of naturalism, intelligent design, and evolutionary theory are critically analyzed. Finally, Eugene P. Wigner’s suggestions concerning the nature of human consciousness, life, and the success of mathematics in the natural sciences is considered in the context of the creative power endowed in humans by God. (shrink)

Ang papel na ito ay komentaryo sa artikulong—Ma'I in Chinese Records—Mindoro or Bai? An Examination of a Historical Puzzle ni Go Bon Juan. Layunin ng pag-aaral na ito na lumikha ng isang mapanglagom at preliminaryong pagbasa sa Ma’i bilang isang suliraning historiograpikal. Sa muling pagbasang ito ay pagtutuunan ng pansin ang maikling pagbaybay sa historiograpiya nito na susundan naman ng interogasyon at pagbibigay kritik sa kamakailang pag-aaral dito ni Go Bon Juan at mga suliraning kinakaharap ng kaniyang interpretasyon na umiinog (...) sa pagpapalagay nito na ang Ma’i ay natagpuan ng mga banyagang mangangalakal sa kasalukuyang rehiyon ng lawa ng Laguna. Mangyari pa, hindi lamang nakatali sa nakasanayan at makitid na pagtitiyak ng pook ang tutok ng pag-aaral. Pagtatangka rin ito na bigyang diin ang “saysay” nito sa pamamagitan ng pagpopook sa Ma’i sa malawak na kontekstong pangkasaysayan na kinasasangkutan nito. Una, bilang isang mahalagang yugto ng napakahabang kasaysayan ng rehiyon ng lawa ng Laguna, at; pangalawa, bilang mikrokosmong bahagi ng naging historikal na pagsulong ng buong Dunia Melayu. Sa huli, sa pamamagitan ng kritikal na panunuri sa mga pundamental na proposisyon ni Go Bon Juan ay ang pag-uwi ng pag-aaral sa konklusyong bagaman kasalukuyang maipapalagay na ang Ma’i ay ang Bay nga ng Laguna, mapaninindiganang hindi talaga sa kasalukuyang kinalalagyan nito sa Laguna nadatnan ng mga mangangalakal ang Ma’I, kung hindi sa kasalukuyang erya ng Verde Island Passage na kinabibilangan ng kasalukuyang Batangas-Mindoro axis kung saan nakaugnay ang Puliran o Lawa ng Laguna. (shrink)

Despite their popularity, relatively scant attention has been paid to the upshot of Bayesian and predictive processing models of cognition for views of overall cognitive architecture. Many of these models are hierarchical ; they posit generative models at multiple distinct "levels," whose job is to predict the consequences of sensory input at lower levels. I articulate one possible position that could be implied by these models, namely, that there is a continuous hierarchy of perception, cognition, and action control comprising levels (...) of generative models. I argue that this view is not entailed by a general Bayesian/predictive processing outlook. Bayesian approaches are compatible with distinct formats of mental representation. Focusing on Bayesian approaches to motor control, I argue that the junctures between different types of mental representation are places where the transitivity of hierarchical prediction may be broken, and I consider the upshot of this conclusion for broader discussions of cognitive architecture. (shrink)

Hành vi bầy đàn là hiện tượng khi các cá nhân, trong các quyết định tài chính hoặc đầu tư, hành động theo số đông, bất chấp thông tin cá nhân hoặc phân tích riêng biệt của họ. Lý thuyết mindsponge có thể cung cấp cách tiếp cận hữu ích để khắc phục hiệu ứng bầy đàn trong đầu tư chứng khoán, thông qua việc giúp nhà đầu tư quản lý và xử lý thông tin một cách hiệu quả hơn.

Nếu nền kinh tế quốc gia là một cơ thể sống, thì hệ thống tài chính là cơ chế tạo, cung cấp và lưu thông máu tới từng tế bào, bộ phận. Thiếu hay thừa đều phát sinh các vấn đề cần giải quyết. Với quá trình chuyển đổi kinh tế và hội nhập quốc tế mạnh mẽ, liên tục giám sát, kịp thời dự đoán sát thực các dấu hiệu và biến động của thị trường để từ đó xây (...) dựng chính sách điều tiết thị trường tài chính và toàn bộ nền kinh tế một cách hợp lý là việc làm cần thiết bảo đảm tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững, đúng định hướng. Đối với nền tài chính của Việt Nam, hiện đang tồn tại bảy dấu hiệu cảnh báo cần được các nhà nghiên cứu và hoạch định chính sách quan tâm. (shrink)

The college hopes that every semester students are able to pay tuition properly and smoothly. The hope is that the institution will be able to maintain monthly cash flow so that its operational and maintenance costs can be met. Therefore, this study was conducted to predict and fulfill the institution's cash-in from the method of paying tuition fees either by cash, installments, or sometimes late payments every semester. In predicting the method of paying tuition fees, using student profile data (name, (...) name, study program) and achievement index every semester for 5 semesters passed and the method of payment (cash, installments, and late--cash or installments). Using the Naive Bayes (NB) method, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Deep Learning, this study aims to forecast tuition costs. The Classification Prediction Model with Naive Bayes, SVM, and Deep Learning produces Confusion Matrix Performance NB with an Accuracy of 91.49%, Confusion Matrix Performance SVM with an Accuracy of 85.11%, and Confusion Matrix Performance Deep Learning with an Accuracy of 89.36%, according to the research findings. (shrink)

The problem addressed in this paper is “the main epistemic problem concerning science”, viz. “the explication of how we compare and evaluate theories [...] in the light of the available evidence” (van Fraassen, BC, 1983, Theory comparison and relevant Evidence. In J. Earman (Ed.), Testing scientific theories (pp. 27–42). Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press). Sections 1– 3 contain the general plausibility-informativeness theory of theory assessment. In a nutshell, the message is (1) that there are two values a theory should exhibit: (...) truth and informativeness—measured respectively by a truth indicator and a strength indicator; (2) that these two values are conflicting in the sense that the former is a decreasing and the latter an increasing function of the logical strength of the theory to be assessed; and (3) that in assessing a given theory by the available data one should weigh between these two conflicting aspects in such a way that any surplus in informativeness succeeds, if the shortfall in plausibility is small enough. Particular accounts of this general theory arise by inserting particular strength indicators and truth indicators. In Section 4 the theory is spelt out for the Bayesian paradigm of subjective probabilities. It is then compared to incremental Bayesian confirmation theory. Section 4 closes by asking whether it is likely to be lovely. Section 5 discusses a few problems of confirmation theory in the light of the present approach. In particular, it is briefly indicated how the present account gives rise to a new analysis of Hempel’s conditions of adequacy for any relation of confirmation (Hempel, CG, 1945, Studies in the logic of comfirmation. Mind, 54, 1–26, 97–121.), differing from the one Carnap gave in § 87 of his Logical foundations of probability (1962, Chicago: University of Chicago Press). Section 6 adresses the question of justification any theory of theory assessment has to face: why should one stick to theories given high assessment values rather than to any other theories? The answer given by the Bayesian version of the account presented in section 4 is that one should accept theories given high assessment values, because, in the medium run, theory assessment almost surely takes one to the most informative among all true theories when presented separating data. The concluding section 7 continues the comparison between the present account and incremental Bayesian confirmation theory. (shrink)

We present a general framework for representing belief-revision rules and use it to characterize Bayes's rule as a classical example and Jeffrey's rule as a non-classical one. In Jeffrey's rule, the input to a belief revision is not simply the information that some event has occurred, as in Bayes's rule, but a new assignment of probabilities to some events. Despite their differences, Bayes's and Jeffrey's rules can be characterized in terms of the same axioms: "responsiveness", which requires that revised beliefs (...) incorporate what has been learnt, and "conservativeness", which requires that beliefs on which the learnt input is "silent" do not change. To illustrate the use of non-Bayesian belief revision in economic theory, we sketch a simple decision-theoretic application. (shrink)

Text classification is one of the most important task in natural language processing, In this research, we carried out several experimental research on three (3) of the most popular Text classification NLP classifier in Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB), and Support Vector Machine (SVN). In the presence of enough training data, Deep Learning CNN work best in all parameters for evaluation with 77% accuracy, followed by SVM with accuracy of 76%, and multinomial Bayes with least performance of (...) 69% accuracy. CNN has the best performance in the presence of large enough training dataset because of the presence of filter/ kernels which help to indentify patterns in text data regardless of their position in the sentence. We repeated the training again with just one-third of our data, at this point SVM comes with the best performance, the performance of CNN noticeably drops but still better than Multinomial Naive Bayes, the reason why SVM works best when we reduce the training data was because of its ability to look for a hyper-plane that creates a boundary between different classes of data so as to properly classify them, so we believed that getting the hyper-plane was more efficient when we reduce the dataset, hence reason for the good performance. Multinomial Naive Bayes have the least performance which we attributed to its assumption of independency between the features which sometimes does not hold true. We concluded that availability of data should be an important factor when choosing classifier for Natural Language Processing Text Classification task. CNN should be use in the presence of enough dataset, and SVM should be use when data is not enough. Multinomial Naive Bayes must not be trusted with state of the art NLP task due to its assumption of independency between the features . (shrink)

Unless and until our society recognizes cyber bullying for what it is, the suffering of thousands of silent victims will continue.” ~ Anna Maria Chavez. There had been series of research on cyber bullying which are unable to provide reliable solution to cyber bullying. In this research work, we were able to provide a permanent solution to this by developing a model capable of detecting and intercepting bullying incoming and outgoing messages with 92% accuracy. We also developed a chatbot automation (...) messaging system to test our model leading to the development of Artificial Intelligence powered anti-cyber bullying system using machine learning algorithm of Multinomial Naïve Bayes (MNB) and optimized linear Support Vector Machine(SVM). Our model is able to detect and intercept bullying outgoing and incoming bullying messages and take immediate action. (shrink)

According to [Bayesian] models” in cognitive neuroscience, says a recent textbook, “the human mind behaves like a capable data scientist”. Do they? That is to say, do such model show we are rational? I argue that Bayesian models of cognition, perhaps surprisingly, do not and indeed cannot, show that we are Bayesian-rational. The key reason is that such models appeal to approximations, a fact that carries significant implications. After outlining the argument, I critique two responses, seen in recent cognitive neuroscience. (...) One says that the mind can be seen as approximately Bayes-rational, while the other reconceives norms of rationality. (shrink)

Text classification is one of the most important task in natural language processing, In this research, we carried out several experimental research on three (3) of the most popular Text classification NLP classifier in Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB), and Support Vector Machine (SVN). In the presence of enough training data, Deep Learning CNN work best in all parameters for evaluation with 77% accuracy, followed by SVM with accuracy of 76%, and multinomial Bayes with least performance of (...) 69% accuracy. CNN has the best performance in the presence of large enough training dataset because of the presence of filter/ kernels which help to indentify patterns in text data regardless of their position in the sentence. -/- We repeated the training again with just one-third of our data, at this point SVM comes with the best performance, the performance of CNN noticeably drops but still better than Multinomial Naive Bayes, the reason why SVM works best when we reduce the training data was because of its ability to look for a hyper-plane that creates a boundary between different classes of data so as to properly classify them, so we believed that getting the hyper-plane was more efficient when we reduce the dataset, hence reason for the good performance. Multinomial Naive Bayes have the least performance which we attributed to its assumption of independency between the features which sometimes does not hold true. We concluded that availability of data should be an important factor when choosing classifier for Natural Language Processing Text Classification task. CNN should be use in the presence of enough dataset, and SVM should be use when data is not enough. Multinomial Naive Bayes must not be trusted with state of the art NLP task due to its assumption of independency between the features. (shrink)

Phishing is one of the most effective ways in which cybercriminals get sensitive details such as credentials for online banking, digital wallets, state secrets, and many more from potential victims. They do this by spamming users with malicious URLs with the sole purpose of tricking them into divulging sensitive information which is later used for various cybercrimes. In this research, we did a comprehensive review of current state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning phishing detection techniques to expose their vulnerabilities and (...) future research direction. For better analysis and observation, we split machine learning techniques into Bayesian, non-Bayesian, and deep learning. We reviewed the most recent advances in Bayesian and non-Bayesian-based classifiers before exploiting their cor- responding weaknesses to indicate future research direction. While exploiting weaknesses in both Bayesian and non-Bayesian classifiers, we also compared each performance with a deep learning classifier. For a proper review of deep learning-based classifiers, we looked at Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTMs). We did an empirical analysis to evaluate the performance of each classifier along with many of the proposed state-of-the-art anti-phishing techniques to identify future research directions, we also made a series of proposals on how the performance of the under-performing algorithm can improved in addition to a two-stage prediction model. (shrink)

Ở quy mô toàn cầu, giao thông vận tải là hoạt động tạo ra lượng khí thải nhà kính lớn thứ nhì trong tất cả các lĩnh vực, chiếm 16,52% tổng lượng khí thải nhà kính toàn cầu vào năm 2019, chỉ sau các hoạt động sản xuất điện và nhiệt, chiếm khoảng 31%.

Chỉ còn một vài ngày nữa cả nước ta sẽ đón chào ngày lễ Quốc tế Lao động 1/5. Sẽ thật ý nghĩa khi ta kiểm đếm và nhìn lại các tác động và giá trị của thành quả lao động trước đây, để từ đó tạo động lực cùng hướng tới tương lai hăng say lao động.

Trong thảo luận ngắn này, xin giới thiệu lại một bài điều tra tổng hợp về trường hợp cơ quan quản lý Scotland đã thống nhất với ý kiến của các đại diện công nghiệp nuôi trồng-chế biến cá hồi nhằm nới lỏng kiểm soát hóa chất diệt ký sinh, vốn được biết là độc hại (gọi chung là pesticide), có tên emamectin. Cụ thể các giới hạn sử dụng được nới lỏng để tăng 23 lần, sau các “thương thảo (...) trong bóng tối” với đại diện giới chủ. Bài báo đăng trên Ferret, ngày 21-5-2023, ký tên tác giả R. Edwards. (shrink)

Probability updating via Bayes' rule often entails extensive informational and computational requirements. In consequence, relatively few practical applications of Bayesian adaptive control techniques have been attempted. This paper discusses an alternative approach to adaptive control, Bayesian in spirit, which shifts attention from the updating of probability distributions via transitional probability assessments to the direct updating of the criterion function, itself, via transitional utility assessments. Results are illustrated in terms of an adaptive reinvestment two-armed bandit problem.

ABSTRACTIn this article, we discuss the benefits of Bayesian statistics and how to utilize them in studies of moral education. To demonstrate concrete examples of the applications of Bayesian statistics to studies of moral education, we reanalyzed two data sets previously collected: one small data set collected from a moral educational intervention experiment, and one big data set from a large-scale Defining Issues Test-2 survey. The results suggest that Bayesian analysis of data sets collected from moral educational studies can provide (...) additional useful statistical information, particularly that associated with the strength of evidence supporting alternative hypotheses, which has not been provided by the classical frequentist approach focusing on P-values. Finally, we introduce several practical guidelines pertaining to how to utilize Bayesian statistics, including the utilization of newly developed free statistical software, Jeffrey’s Amazing Statistics Program, and thresholding based on Bayes Factors, to scholars in the field of moral education. (shrink)

Medical diagnosis has been traditionally recognized as a privileged field of application for so called probabilistic induction. Consequently, the Bayesian theorem, which mathematically formalizes this form of inference, has been seen as the most adequate tool for quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the diagnosis by providing probabilities of different diagnostic hypotheses, given symptomatic or laboratory data. On the other side, it has also been remarked that differential diagnosis rather works by exclusion, e.g. by modus tollens, i.e. deductively. By drawing on a (...) case history, this paper aims at clarifying some points on the issue. Namely: 1) Medical diagnosis does not represent, strictly speaking, a form of induction, but a type, of what in Peircean terms should be called ‘abduction’ (identifying a case as the token of a specific type); 2) in performing the single diagnostic steps, however, different inferential methods are used for both inductive and deductive nature: modus tollens, hypothetical-deductive method, abduction; 3) Bayes’ theorem is a probabilized form of abduction which uses mathematics in order to justify the degree of confidence which can be entertained on a hypothesis given the available evidence; 4) although theoretically irreconcilable, in practice, both the hypothetical- deductive method and the Bayesian one, are used in the same diagnosis with no serious compromise for its correctness; 5) Medical diagnosis, especially differential diagnosis, also uses a kind of “probabilistic modus tollens”, in that, signs (symptoms or laboratory data) are taken as strong evidence for a given hypothesis not to be true: the focus is not on hypothesis confirmation, but instead on its refutation [Pr (¬ H/E1, E2, …, En)]. Especially at the beginning of a complicated case, odds are between the hypothesis that is potentially being excluded and a vague “other”. This procedure has the advantage of providing a clue of what evidence to look for and to eventually reduce the set of candidate hypotheses if conclusive negative evidence is found. 6) Bayes’ theorem in the hypothesis-confirmation form can more faithfully, although idealistically, represent the medical diagnosis when the diagnostic itinerary has come to a reduced set of plausible hypotheses after a process of progressive elimination of candidate hypotheses; 7) Bayes’ theorem is however indispensable in the case of litigation in order to assess doctor’s responsibility for medical error by taking into account the weight of the evidence at his disposal. (shrink)

I argue that when we use ‘probability’ language in epistemic contexts—e.g., when we ask how probable some hypothesis is, given the evidence available to us—we are talking about degrees of support, rather than degrees of belief. The epistemic probability of A given B is the mind-independent degree to which B supports A, not the degree to which someone with B as their evidence believes A, or the degree to which someone would or should believe A if they had B as (...) their evidence. My central argument is that the degree-of-support interpretation lets us better model good reasoning in certain cases involving old evidence. Degree-of-belief interpretations make the wrong predictions not only about whether old evidence confirms new hypotheses, but about the values of the probabilities that enter into Bayes’ Theorem when we calculate the probability of hypotheses conditional on old evidence and new background information. (shrink)

Supra-Bayesianism is the Bayesian response to learning the opinions of others. Probability pooling constitutes an alternative response. One natural question is whether there are cases where probability pooling gives the supra-Bayesian result. This has been called the problem of Bayes-compatibility for pooling functions. It is known that in a common prior setting, under standard assumptions, linear pooling cannot be nontrivially Bayes-compatible. We show by contrast that geometric pooling can be nontrivially Bayes-compatible. Indeed, we show that, under certain assumptions, geometric and (...) Bayes-compatible pooling are equivalent. Granting supra-Bayesianism its usual normative status, one upshot of our study is thus that, in a certain class of epistemic contexts, geometric pooling enjoys a normative advantage over linear pooling as a social learning mechanism. We discuss the philosophical ramifications of this advantage, which we show to be robust to variations in our statement of the Bayes-compatibility problem. (shrink)

The paper argues that the two best known formal logical fallacies, namely denying the antecedent (DA) and affirming the consequent (AC) are not just basic and simple errors, which prove human irrationality, but rather informational shortcuts, which may provide a quick and dirty way of extracting useful information from the environment. DA and AC are shown to be degraded versions of Bayes’ theorem, once this is stripped of some of its probabilities. The less the probabilities count, the closer these fallacies (...) become to a reasoning that is not only informationally useful but also logically valid. (shrink)

Bayesian classifiers perform well when each of the features is completely independent of the other which is not always valid in real world applications. The aim of this study is to implement and compare the performances of each variant of the Bayesian classifier (Multinomial, Bernoulli, and Gaussian) on anomaly detection in network intrusion, and to investigate whether there is any association between each variant’s assumption and their performance. Our investigation showed that each variant of the Bayesian algorithm blindly follows its (...) assumption regardless of feature property, and that the assumption is the single most important factor that influences their accuracy. Experimental results show that Bernoulli has accuracy of 69.9% test (71% train), Multinomial has accuracy of 31.2% test (31.2% train), while Gaussian has an accuracy of 81.69% test (82.84% train). Going deeper, we investigated and found that each Naïve Bayes variants performances and accuracy is largely due to each classifier assumption, Gaussian classifier performed best on anomaly detection due to its assumption that features follow normal distributions which are continuous, while multinomial classifier have a dismal performance as it simply assumes discreet and multinomial distribution. (shrink)

Bây giờ ở Hà Nội lại có nhiều quán nước vối, nấu cả nụ lẫn lá. Thế là, thức uống ngàn đời của người Việt mà cách đây gần một trăm năm cụ Nguyễn Công Tiễu, một nhà khoa học hàng đầu về lĩnh vực nông nghiệp, đã có một công trình về giá trị dinh dưỡng của nó sau một hồi thời thế xoay vần đã quay trở lại, bình thường như lẽ sống, sự sống. Nước vối khiêm nhường, (...) nhưng đã đủ khỏe khoắn để vượt qua những thách thức của nước ngọt, đồ uống có ga, những thương hiệu lẫy lừng. (Tạp chí Tia Sáng; 7-7-2016). (shrink)

Bây giờ, cuộc chiến với tổn thất đa dạng sinh học đang lan rộng sang ngành công nghiệp làm đẹp. Công nghiệp thời trang đã từng chịu áp lực trước các ảnh hưởng môi trường tiêu cực, và đang phải điều chỉnh lớn, nhất là với thời trang nhanh. Nhưng món chăm sóc thẩm mỹ dường như đang chịu áp lực gia tăng dần. Ngành hàng thẩm mỹ và chăm sóc cá nhân có doanh số rất lớn và lợi nhuận (...) cao, đặc biệt đối với phân khúc thu nhập cao. Tuy nhiên, lợi thế này cũng tiềm ẩn rủi ro phải đối diện với những quan sát, nghiên cứu, điều tra và cả chỉ trích của các tổ chức xã hội dân sự, các phong trào hoạt động môi trường, và cả người tiêu dùng. Hơn ai hết, ngành công nghiệp này có độ nhạy rất cao với rủi ro của các ý kiến đánh giá tiêu cực xã hội, nhất là hậu quả nặng nề của các phong trào tẩy chay tiêu dùng. Sắc thái mới nhất và sẽ chỉ có thể gia tăng khi mà sức khỏe hệ sinh thái toàn cầu đang suy giảm chính là các sản phẩm có liên quan tới phát thải và tổn thất môi sinh, cụ thể hơn là tổn thất đa dạng sinh học do chặt phá rừng và canh tác nông nghiệp gây tác hại lâu dài. (shrink)

Bayesian models of legal arguments generally aim to produce a single integrated model, combining each of the legal arguments under consideration. This combined approach implicitly assumes that variables and their relationships can be represented without any contradiction or misalignment, and in a way that makes sense with respect to the competing argument narratives. This paper describes a novel approach to compare and ‘average’ Bayesian models of legal arguments that have been built independently and with no attempt to make them consistent (...) in terms of variables, causal assumptions or parameterization. The approach involves assessing whether competing models of legal arguments are explained or predict facts uncovered before or during the trial process. Those models that are more heavily disconfirmed by the facts are given lower weight, as model plausibility measures, in the Bayesian model comparison and averaging framework adopted. In this way a plurality of arguments is allowed yet a single judgement based on all arguments is possible and rational. (shrink)

Blindsight and vision for action seem to be exemplars of unconscious visual processes. However, researchers have recently argued that blindsight is not really a kind of uncon- scious vision but is rather severely degraded conscious vision. Morten Overgaard and col- leagues have recently developed new methods for measuring the visibility of visual stimuli. Studies using these methods show that reported clarity of visual stimuli correlates with accuracy in both normal individuals and blindsight patients. Vision for action has also come (...) under scrutiny. Recent findings seem to show that information processed by the dor- sal stream for online action contributes to visual awareness. Some interpret these results as showing that some dorsal stream processes are conscious visual processes (e.g., Gallese, 2007; Jacob & Jeannerod, 2003). The aim of this paper is to provide new support for the more traditional view that blindsight and vision for action are genuinely unconscious per- ceptual processes. I argue that individuals with blindsight do not have access to the kind of purely qualitative color and size information which normal individuals do. So, even though people with blindsight have a kind of cognitive consciousness, visual information process- ing in blindsight patients is not associated with a distinctly visual phenomenology. I argue further that while dorsal stream processing seems to contribute to visual awareness, only information processed by the early dorsal stream (V1, V2, and V3) is broadcast to working memory. Information processed by later parts of the dorsal stream (the parietal lobe) never reaches working memory and hence does not correlate with phenomenal awareness. I con- clude that both blindsight and vision for action are genuinely unconscious visual processes. (shrink)

In a series of papers over the past twenty years, and in a new book, Igor Douven has argued that Bayesians are too quick to reject versions of inference to the best explanation that cannot be accommodated within their framework. In this paper, I survey their worries and attempt to answer them using a series of pragmatic and purely epistemic arguments that I take to show that Bayes’ Rule really is the only rational way to respond to your evidence.

TCCS - Việt Nam đang đứng trước ngưỡng cửa thập niên thứ hai, thế kỷ XXI. Tuy vậy, mốc thời gian không quan trọng bằng những đổi thay chóng mặt của quá trình quốc tế hóa đời sống kinh tế, và những biến đổi sâu sắc nó sẽ mang lại. Quá trình ấy, ngay bây giờ, lại được phóng đại qua lăng kính của những biến động toàn cầu do khủng hoảng kinh tế - tài chính 2007 - 2009, điều (...) có thể dẫn tới những biến đổi lớn về cấu trúc kinh tế nhân loại, cũng như diễn tiến địa - chính trị khắp nơi trên thế giới. (shrink)

Bài viết trình bày một số triển khai mới trong quá trình phát triển bổ sung các luận điểm sâu hơn cho hệ thống phát triển và quản trị quá trình sản xuất tri thức / phát kiến kỹ thuật-công nghệ của nhóm nghiên cứu AISDL, thường được gọi tắt là hệ thống lý thuyết SM3D.

The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

Bài viết trình bày một số triển khai mới trong quá trình phát triển bổ sung các luận điểm sâu hơn cho hệ thống phát triển và quản trị quá trình sản xuất tri thứcphát kiến kỹ thuật-công nghệ của nhóm nghiên cứu AISDL, thường được gọi tắt là hệ thống lý thuyết SM3D.

A Bayesian measure of evidence for precise hypotheses is presented. The intention is to give a Bayesian alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-values. In fact, a set is defined in the parameter space and the posterior probability, its credibility, is evaluated. This set is the “Highest Posterior Density Region” that is “tangent” to the set that defines the null hypothesis. Our measure of evidence is the complement of the credibility of the “tangent” region.

Several philosophers and psychologists have characterized belief in conspiracy theories as a product of irrational reasoning. Proponents of conspiracy theories apparently resist revising their beliefs given disconfirming evidence and tend to believe in more than one conspiracy, even when the relevant beliefs are mutually inconsistent. In this paper, we bring leading views on conspiracy theoretic beliefs closer together by exploring their rationality under a probabilistic framework. We question the claim that the irrationality of conspiracy theoretic beliefs stems from an inadequate (...) response to disconfirming evidence and internal incoherence. Drawing analogies to Lakatosian research programs, we argue that maintaining a core conspiracy belief can be Bayes-rational when it is embedded in a network of auxiliary beliefs, which can be revised to protect the more central belief from disconfirmation. We propose that the irrationality associated with conspiracy belief lies not in a flawed updating method, but in a failure to converge toward wellconfirmed, stable belief networks in the long run. This approach not only reconciles previously disjointed views, but also points toward more specific descriptions of why agents may be prone to adopting beliefs in conspiracy theories. (shrink)