Results for 'forecasting'

130 found
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  1. Affective Forecasting and Substantial Self-Knowledge.Uku Tooming & Kengo Miyazono - 2023 - In Alba Montes Sánchez & Alessandro Salice (eds.), Emotional Self-Knowledge. New York, NY: Routledge. pp. 17-38.
    This chapter argues that our self-knowledge is often mediated by our affective self-knowledge. In other words, we often know about ourselves by knowing our own emotions. More precisely, what Cassam has called “substantial self-knowledge” (SSK), such as self-knowledge of one's character, one's values, or one's aptitudes, is mediated by affective forecasting, which is the process of predicting one's emotional responses to possible situations. For instance, a person comes to know that she is courageous by predicting her own emotional reactions (...)
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  2. Forecasting Stock Prices using Artificial Neural Network.Ahmed Munther Abdel Hadi & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2023 - International Journal of Engineering and Information Systems (IJEAIS) 7 (10):42-50.
    Abstract: Accurate stock price prediction is essential for informed investment decisions and financial planning. In this research, we introduce an innovative approach to forecast stock prices using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Our dataset, consisting of 5582 samples and 6 features, including historical price data and technical indicators, was sourced from Yahoo Finance. The proposed ANN model, composed of four layers (1 input, 1 hidden, 1 output), underwent rigorous training and validation, yielding remarkable results with an accuracy of 99.84% and (...)
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  3. Hierarchical Forecasting with Polynomial Nets.Julio Michael Stern, Fabio Nakano, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2009 - Studies in Computational Intelligence 199:305-315.
    This article presents a two level hierarchical forecasting model developed in a consulting project for a Brazilian magazine publishing company. The first level uses a VARMA model and considers econometric variables. The second level takes into account qualitative aspects of each publication issue, and is based on polynomial networks generated by Genetic Programming (GP).
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  4. Forecasting COVID-19 cases Using ANN.Ibrahim Sufyan Al-Baghdadi & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2023 - International Journal of Academic Engineering Research (IJAER) 7 (10):22-31.
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to global healthcare systems, necessitating accurate and timely forecasting of cases for effective mitigation strategies. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to predict COVID-19 cases using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), harnessing the power of machine learning for epidemiological forecasting. Our ANNs-based forecasting model has demonstrated remarkable efficacy, achieving an impressive accuracy rate of 97.87%. This achievement underscores the potential of ANNs in providing precise and data-driven insights (...)
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  5. Periodization and forecast of global dynamics of human resources development.Sergii Sardak & В. Т. Сухотеплий С. Е. Сардак - 2013 - Economic Annals-XXI 1 (3-4):3–6.
    Analyzing and modeling interconnections between crucial factors of human development, rates of growth thereof and elasticity of the growth rates, the authors have defined specific periods of the development and have made a forecast for the dynamics of the human resources development. Those periods have been defined more exactly and arranged as follows: the first one – «Before Christ»; the second one – «Early Medieval» (1–1100 a.d.); the third one – «Advanced Medieval» (1101–1625); the forth one – «Pioneer’s Modernization» (1626–1970); (...)
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  6. Forecasting modeling and analytics of economic processes.Maksym Bezpartochnyi, Olha Mezentseva, Oksana Ilienko, Oleksii Kolesnikov, Olena Savielieva & Dmytro Lukianov - 2020 - VUZF Publishing House “St. Grigorii Bogoslov”.
    The book will be useful for economists, finance and valuation professionals, market researchers, public policy analysts, data analysts, teachers or students in graduate-level classes. The book is aimed at students and beginners who are interested in forecasting modeling and analytics of economic processes and want to get an idea of its implementation.
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  7. Forecasting of the number of air passengers in the United States in terms of the maintenance of economic security during the impact of COVID-19.Bartosz Kozicki, Igor Britchenko, Arsen Ovsepyan & Sabina Grabowska - 2021 - Studies in Politics and Society 19 (3):29-40.
    The purpose of the study is to forecast the number of passengers transported by air in the United States for 2021-2022. The forecast is preceded by a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by air in the United States from 1 January 2019 to 2 November 2021. To achieve this goal, the data were grouped as dependent variables: years, months-years. The observed similarities, the analysis and evaluation of the literature as well as the own experience made it (...)
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  8. Forecasting the state of agricultural enterprises based on the results of economic diagnostics.Olesia Bezpartochna - 2021 - VUZF REVIEW 6 (1):3-11.
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  9. Artificial Neural Network for Forecasting Car Mileage per Gallon in the City.Mohsen Afana, Jomana Ahmed, Bayan Harb, Bassem S. Abu-Nasser & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2018 - International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology 124:51-59.
    In this paper an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was used to help cars dealers recognize the many characteristics of cars, including manufacturers, their location and classification of cars according to several categories including: Make, Model, Type, Origin, DriveTrain, MSRP, Invoice, EngineSize, Cylinders, Horsepower, MPG_Highway, Weight, Wheelbase, Length. ANN was used in prediction of the number of miles per gallon when the car is driven in the city(MPG_City). The results showed that ANN model was able to predict MPG_City with 97.50 (...)
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  10. Main trends and development forecast of bread and bakery products market.Bartosz Mickiewicz & Igor Britchenko - 2022 - VUZF REVIEW 7 (3):113-123.
    Bakery products are very important in human nutrition and are the basis of any daily diet. Their social significance is determined by the traditions and habits of the population of the countries, accessibility for all groups of the population, diverse assortment, including bakery products for functional and specialized purposes. The up-to-date trend is to expand the assortment of functional bakery products, the use of which will provide the body’s need for the necessary macro- and micronutrients for an active and healthy (...)
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  11. Divine Hiddenness and Affective Forecasting.Miles Andrews - 2014 - Res Cogitans 5 (1):102-110.
    In this paper I argue that J. L. Schellenberg’s Divine Hiddenness Argument is committed to a problematic implication that is weakened by research in cognitive psychology on affective forecasting. Schellenberg’s notion of a nonresistant nonbeliever logically implies that for any such person, it is true that she would form the proper belief in God if provided with what he calls “probabilifying” evidence for God’s existence. In light of Schellenberg’s commitment to the importance of both affective and propositional belief components (...)
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  12.  87
    Case study of eNav forecast - a navigation application developed by NASCA Geosystems.Nguyen Minh Ngoc - 2011 - Dissertation, Seinäjoki University of Applied Sciences
    The objective of this paper was to identify the level of demand in the Vietnamese fisheries sector for e-Nav – weather and sea condition forecast application developed by NASCA Geosystems. NASCA Geosystems is a small company of five people operating in the field of information technology consulting. Management at NASCA Geosystems wanted to study the Vietnamese market in order to expand their operation in Vietnam. In this thesis, both qualitative and quantitative methods were applied. The quantitative data was gathered from (...)
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  13. POST-POSTMODERNISM:FORECASTING THE ELECTRONIC MEDIA FOR THE FUTURE.Stanislaus Iyorza & Bassey Agara Tom - 2020 - Theatre Studies Review 6 (1):1-21.
    For more than a decade, an aura of discontentment has challenged existing models and theories that have established the structures in various fields of human endeavours such as philosophy, architecture, political science, media, literature, arts and the humanities in general. For instance, the architectural design of what was hitherto referred to as modern building has at least a sitting room (parlour), a kitchen, a bathroom and a toilet as well as two or more number of bedrooms depending on the size (...)
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  14. Manage business effectively: analysis and forecasting MNC market opportunities.Igor Kryvovyazyuk, Liubov Kovalska, Petro Gudz, Marina Gudz & Iryna Kaminska - 2020 - Revista ESPACIOS 41 (29):94-106.
    The purpose of this investigation is to develop a new methodological basis for studying the market opportunities of the multinational corporation (MNC) on the basis of the synthesis of modern scientific methods for further forecasting their change. The results showed the degree of dependence of the effectiveness of business management on the trends in the field development and competitor’s actions, market access opportunities, the use of MNC opportunities, their strategic positions, and the totality of internal factors that determine the (...)
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  15. Application of combined modeling methods for estimating and forecasting the business value of international corporations.Igor Kryvovyazyuk, Serhii Smerichevskyi, Olha Myshko, Iryna Oleksandrenko, Viktoriia Dorosh & Tetiana Visyna - 2020 - International Journal of Management 11 (7):1000-1007.
    The purpose of the research is to study the feasibility of using the combined modeling method in evaluation of business value. Modern approaches and methods of evaluating business value and the possibilities of combining them are explored. The peculiarities of the methodology of evaluating the business value by methods of Gordon Growth Model and Exit Multiple are disclosed. During the research the fair value of Luxoft company and the reasons for its deviation from the cost of sale are found. Luxoft’s (...)
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  16. A DEEP LEARNING APPROACH FOR LSTM BASED COVID-19 FORECASTING SYSTEM.K. Jothimani - 2022 - Journal of Science Technology and Research (JSTAR) 3 (1):28-38.
    : COVID-19 has proliferated over the earth, exposing mankind at risk. The assets of the world's most powerful economies are at stake due to the disease's high infectivity and contagiousness. The capacity of machine learning algorithms can estimate the amount of future COVID-19 cases, which is now considered a possible threat to civilization. Five conventional measuring models, notably LR, LASSO, SVM, ES, and LSTM, were utilised in this work to examine COVID-19's undermining variables. Each model contains three sorts of expectations: (...)
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  17. Reconsidering the Impact of Affective Forecasting.Nada Gligorov - 2009 - Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics 18 (2):166.
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  18. Comparing Artificial Neural Networks with Multiple Linear Regression for Forecasting Heavy Metal Content.Rachid El Chaal & Moulay Othman Aboutafail - 2022 - Acadlore Transactions on Geosciences 1 (1):2-11.
    This paper adopts two modeling tools, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict the concentrations of heavy metals (zinc, boron, and manganese) in surface waters of the Oued Inaouen watershed flowing towards Inaouen, using a set of physical-chemical parameters. XLStat was employed to perform multiple linear and nonlinear regressions, and Statista 10 was chosen to construct neural networks for modeling and prediction. The effectiveness of the ANN- and MLR-based stochastic models was assessed by the determination (...)
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  19. THE IMPROVED MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR CONTINUOUS FORECASTING OF THE EPIDEMIC.V. R. Manuraj - 2022 - Journal of Science Technology and Research (JSTAR) 3 (1):55-64.
    COVID-19 began in China in December 2019. As of January 2021, over a hundred million instances had been reported worldwide, leaving a deep socio-economic impact globally. Current investigation studies determined that artificial intelligence (AI) can play a key role in reducing the effect of the virus spread. The prediction of COVID-19 incidence in different countries and territories is important because it serves as a guide for governments, healthcare providers, and the general public in developing management strategies to battle the disease. (...)
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  20. Management of socio-economic transformations of business processes: current realities, global challenges, forecast scenarios and development prospects.Maksym Bezpartochnyi, Igor Britchenko & Olesia Bezpartochna - 2023 - Sofia: Professor Marin Drinov Publishing House of Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.
    The authors of the scientific monograph have come to the conclusion that мanagement of socio-economic transformations of business processes requires the use of mechanisms to support of entrepreneurship, sectors of the national economy, the financial system, and critical infrastructure. Basic research focuses on assessment the state of social service provision, analysing economic security, implementing innovation and introducing digital technologies. The research results have been implemented in the different models of costing, credit risk and capital management, tax control, use of artificial (...)
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  21. Absolutely No Free Lunches!Gordon Belot - forthcoming - Theoretical Computer Science.
    This paper is concerned with learners who aim to learn patterns in infinite binary sequences: shown longer and longer initial segments of a binary sequence, they either attempt to predict whether the next bit will be a 0 or will be a 1 or they issue forecast probabilities for these events. Several variants of this problem are considered. In each case, a no-free-lunch result of the following form is established: the problem of learning is a formidably difficult one, in that (...)
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  22. GOLEMA XIV prognoza rozwoju ludzkiej cywilizacji a typologia osobliwości technologicznych.Rachel Palm - 2023 - Argument: Biannual Philosophical Journal 13 (1):75–89.
    The GOLEM XIV’s forecast for the development of the human civilisation and a typology of technological singularities: In the paper, a conceptual analysis of technological singularity is conducted and results in the concept differentiated into convergent singularity, existential singularity, and forecasting singularity, based on selected works of Ray Kurzweil, Nick Bostrom, and Vernor Vinge respectively. A comparison is made between the variants and the forecast of GOLEM XIV (a quasi-alter ego and character by Stanisław Lem) for the possible development (...)
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  23. The application features of seasonal-cyclic patterns in international financial markets.Sergii Sardak & O. Benenson O. Dzhusov, S. Smerichevskyi, S. Sardak, O. Klimova - 2019 - Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal 23 (5):1-10.
    The paper deals with the topical issue of studying cyclic patterns in the economy and their practical application for the forecasts on the development of financial markets. The work aims to establish the features of the seasonal-cyclic patterns "The January barometer" and "The first five days of January" in the international financial markets in current conditions and to develop recommendations for the practical application of these patterns in the investment activities. The US stock market as an integral part of the (...)
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  24. Enrolment patterns in Federal universities based on three criteria (2010-2031): A time series analysis.Valentine Joseph Owan, Eyiene Ameh & Mary Chinelo Ubabudu - 2021 - Journal of Educational Research in Developing Areas (JEREDA) 2 (1):34-51.
    Introduction: There is a general agreement among previous studies that gender, merit and catchment area criteria allows for access to university education, but the pattern of these variables over the years has not been proven in these studies. Purpose: This study used a times series approach to evaluate the enrolment patterns in federally owned universities in South-South Zone, Nigeria, based on the gender, merit and catchment area criteria. Methodology: The descriptive survey design was adopted for this study. A purposive sampling (...)
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  25. Actual issues of modern development of socio-economic systems in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic.Grigorii Vazov (ed.) - 2021 - VUZF Publishing House “St. Grigorii Bogoslov”.
    The entire world community, since 2019, affected by the global pandemic COVID-19. The pandemic caused by this virus, led not only to significant human losses worldwide, but also imposed significant restrictions on the socio-cultural life of the population and radically changed the trends of the global economy and the further functioning of socio-economic systems. Now, huge economic losses have been recorded, which affected almost all sectors of the national economy and the state in the short, medium and long term. However, (...)
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  26. The Kingfisher Story Collection.Quan-Hoang Vuong - 2022 - Hanoi, Vietnam: AISDL.
    (Third edition with additions) -/- This is a collection of short stories centering around the protagonist character, Kingfisher, originally written in Vietnamese by myself. -/- The book aims to introduce international readers to snippets of Vietnamese culture through the ordinary yet humorous life of the bird village. -/- The first 15 of these short stories were published in the Khoảng Lặng (Quiet Moment) column of the Vietnamese magazine Kinh Tế và Dự Báo (Economy and Forecast Review) from 2017 to 2019. (...)
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  27. From Biological to Synthetic Neurorobotics Approaches to Understanding the Structure Essential to Consciousness (Part 3).Jeffrey White & Jun Tani - 2017 - APA Newsletter on Philosophy and Computers 17 (1):11-22.
    This third paper locates the synthetic neurorobotics research reviewed in the second paper in terms of themes introduced in the first paper. It begins with biological non-reductionism as understood by Searle. It emphasizes the role of synthetic neurorobotics studies in accessing the dynamic structure essential to consciousness with a focus on system criticality and self, develops a distinction between simulated and formal consciousness based on this emphasis, reviews Tani and colleagues' work in light of this distinction, and ends by (...) the increasing importance of synthetic neurorobotics studies for cognitive science and philosophy of mind going forward, finally in regards to most- and myth-consciousness. (shrink)
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  28. Globalization And The Shifting Of Global Economic-Political Balance.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 184-207.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
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  29. Goodman e o projeto de uma definição construtiva de “indução válida”.Eros Moreira de Carvalho - 2018 - Principia: An International Journal of Epistemology 22 (3):439-460.
    In Fact, Fiction and Forecast, Nelson Goodman claims that the problem of justifying induction is not something over and above the problem of describing valid induction. Such claim, besides suggesting his commitment to the collapse of the distinction between the context of description and the context of justification, seems to open the possibility that the new riddle of induction could be addressed empirically. Discoveries about psychological preferences for projecting certain classes of objects could function as a criterion for determining which (...)
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  30.  26
    RAINFALL DETECTION USING DEEP LEARNING TECHNIQUE.M. Arul Selvan & S. Miruna Joe Amali - 2024 - Journal of Science Technology and Research 5 (1):37-42.
    Rainfall prediction is one of the challenging tasks in weather forecasting. Accurate and timely rainfall prediction can be very helpful to take effective security measures in dvance regarding: on-going construction projects, transportation activities, agricultural tasks, flight operations and flood situation, etc. Data mining techniques can effectively predict the rainfall by extracting the hidden patterns among available features of past weather data. This research contributes by providing a critical analysis and review of latest data mining techniques, used for rainfall prediction. (...)
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  31. Present Scenario of Fog Computing and Hopes for Future Research.G. KSoni, B. Hiren Bhatt & P. Dhaval Patel - 2019 - International Journal of Computer Sciences and Engineering 7 (9).
    According to the forecast that billions of devices will get connected to the Internet by 2020. All these devices will produce a huge amount of data that will have to be handled rapidly and in a feasible manner. It will become a challenge for real-time applications to handle this huge data while considering security issues as well as time constraints. The main highlights of cloud computing are on-demand service and scalability; therefore the data generated from IoT devices are generally handled (...)
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  32. A look into the future impact of ICT on our lives.Luciano Floridi - 2007 - The Information Society 23 (1):59-64.
    This paper may be read as a sequel of a 1995 paper, published in this journal, in which I predicted what sort of transformations and problems were likely to affect the development of the Internet and our system of organised knowledge in the medium term. In this second attempt, I look at the future developments of Information and Communication Technologies and try to guess what their impact on our lives will be. The forecast is that, in information societies, the threshold (...)
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  33. Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Car Performance Using JNN.Awni Ahmed Al-Mobayed, Youssef Mahmoud Al-Madhoun, Mohammed Nasser Al-Shuwaikh & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2020 - International Journal of Engineering and Information Systems (IJEAIS) 4 (9):139-145.
    In this paper an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was used to help cars dealers recognize the many characteristics of cars, including manufacturers, their location and classification of cars according to several categories including: Buying, Maint, Doors, Persons, Lug_boot, Safety, and Overall. ANN was used in forecasting car acceptability. The results showed that ANN model was able to predict the car acceptability with 99.12 %. The factor of Safety has the most influence on car acceptability evaluation. Comparative study method (...)
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  34. Epistemic Luck.Mylan Engel Jr - 2011 - Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy:1-41.
    Epistemic luck is a generic notion used to describe any of a number of ways in which it can be accidental, coincidental, or fortuitous that a person has a true belief. For example, one can form a true belief as a result of a lucky guess, as when one believes through guesswork that “C” is the right answer to a multiple-choice question and one’s belief just happens to be correct. One can form a true belief via wishful thinking; for example, (...)
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  35. The Ethics of Military Influence Operations.Michael Skerker - 2023 - Conatus 8 (2):589-612.
    This article articulates a framework for normatively assessing influence operations, undertaken by national security institutions. Section I categorizes the vast field of possible types of influence operations according to the communication’s content, its attribution, the rights of the target audience, the communication’s purpose, and its secondary effects. Section II populates these categories with historical examples and section III evaluates these cases with a moral framework. I argue that deceptive or manipulative communications directed at non-liable audiences are presumptively immoral and illegitimate (...)
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  36. Does Predictive Sentencing Make Sense?Clinton Castro, Alan Rubel & Lindsey Schwartz - forthcoming - Inquiry: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy.
    This paper examines the practice of using predictive systems to lengthen the prison sentences of convicted persons when the systems forecast a higher likelihood of re-offense or re-arrest. There has been much critical discussion of technologies used for sentencing, including questions of bias and opacity. However, there hasn’t been a discussion of whether this use of predictive systems makes sense in the first place. We argue that it does not by showing that there is no plausible theory of punishment that (...)
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  37. Algorithmic paranoia: the temporal governmentality of predictive policing.Bonnie Sheehey - 2019 - Ethics and Information Technology 21 (1):49-58.
    In light of the recent emergence of predictive techniques in law enforcement to forecast crimes before they occur, this paper examines the temporal operation of power exercised by predictive policing algorithms. I argue that predictive policing exercises power through a paranoid style that constitutes a form of temporal governmentality. Temporality is especially pertinent to understanding what is ethically at stake in predictive policing as it is continuous with a historical racialized practice of organizing, managing, controlling, and stealing time. After first (...)
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  38. The epistemic challenge to longtermism.Christian Tarsney - 2023 - Synthese 201 (6):1-37.
    Longtermists claim that what we ought to do is mainly determined by how our actions might affect the very long-run future. A natural objection to longtermism is that these effects may be nearly impossible to predict — perhaps so close to impossible that, despite the astronomical importance of the far future, the expected value of our present actions is mainly determined by near-term considerations. This paper aims to precisify and evaluate one version of this epistemic objection to longtermism. To that (...)
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  39. Three Ways in Which Pandemic Models May Perform a Pandemic.Philippe Van Basshuysen, Lucie White, Donal Khosrowi & Mathias Frisch - 2021 - Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics 14 (1):110-127.
    Models not only represent but may also influence their targets in important ways. While models’ abilities to influence outcomes has been studied in the context of economic models, often under the label ‘performativity’, we argue that this phenomenon also pertains to epidemiological models, such as those used for forecasting the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. After identifying three ways in which a model by the Covid-19 Response Team at Imperial College London may have influenced scientific advice, policy, and individual (...)
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  40. Unlocking Literary Insights: Predicting Book Ratings with Neural Networks.Mahmoud Harara & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2023 - International Journal of Engineering and Information Systems (IJEAIS) 7 (10):22-27.
    Abstract: This research delves into the utilization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as a powerful tool for predicting the overall ratings of books by leveraging a diverse set of attributes. To achieve this, we employ a comprehensive dataset sourced from Goodreads, enabling us to thoroughly examine the intricate connections between the different attributes of books and the ratings they receive from readers. In our investigation, we meticulously scrutinize how attributes such as genre, author, page count, publication year, and reader reviews (...)
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  41. Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2010 - Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
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  42. In Defence of Armchair Expertise.Theodore Bach - 2019 - Theoria 85 (5):350-382.
    In domains like stock brokerage, clinical psychiatry, and long‐term political forecasting, experts generally fail to outperform novices. Empirical researchers agree on why this is: experts must receive direct or environmental learning feedback during training to develop reliable expertise, and these domains are deficient in this type of feedback. A growing number of philosophers resource this consensus view to argue that, given the absence of direct or environmental philosophical feedback, we should not give the philosophical intuitions or theories of expert (...)
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  43. No one can serve two epistemic masters.J. Dmitri Gallow - 2018 - Philosophical Studies 175 (10):2389-2398.
    Consider two epistemic experts—for concreteness, let them be two weather forecasters. Suppose that you aren’t certain that they will issue identical forecasts, and you would like to proportion your degrees of belief to theirs in the following way: first, conditional on either’s forecast of rain being x, you’d like your own degree of belief in rain to be x. Secondly, conditional on them issuing different forecasts of rain, you’d like your own degree of belief in rain to be some weighted (...)
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  44. When are Purely Predictive Models Best?Robert Northcott - 2017 - Disputatio 9 (47):631-656.
    Can purely predictive models be useful in investigating causal systems? I argue ‘yes’. Moreover, in many cases not only are they useful, they are essential. The alternative is to stick to models or mechanisms drawn from well-understood theory. But a necessary condition for explanation is empirical success, and in many cases in social and field sciences such success can only be achieved by purely predictive models, not by ones drawn from theory. Alas, the attempt to use theory to achieve explanation (...)
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  45. The life cycle of social and economic systems.Sergii Sardak & С. Е Сардак - 2016 - Marketing and Management of Innovations 1:157-169.
    The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to identify the components of social and economic systems life cycle. To achieve this aim, the article describes the traits and characteristics of the system, determines the features of social and economic systems functioning and is applied a systematic approach in the study of their life cycle. The results of the analysis. It is determined that the development of social and economic systems has signs of cyclicity and is explained (...)
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  46. Predicting Life Expectancy in Diverse Countries Using Neural Networks: Insights and Implications.Alaa Mohammed Dawoud & Samy S. Abu-Naser - 2023 - International Journal of Academic Engineering Research (IJAER) 7 (9):45-54.
    Life expectancy prediction, a pivotal facet of public health and policy formulation, has witnessed remarkable advancements owing to the integration of neural network models and comprehensive datasets. In this research, we present an innovative approach to forecasting life expectancy in diverse countries. Leveraging a neural network architecture, our model was trained on a dataset comprising 22 distinct features, acquired from Kaggle, and encompassing key health indicators, socioeconomic metrics, and cultural attributes. The model demonstrated exceptional predictive accuracy, attaining an impressive (...)
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  47. Productive Justice in the ‘Post‐Work Future’.Caleb Althorpe & Elizabeth Finneron-Burns - 2024 - Journal of Applied Philosophy 41 (2):330-349.
    Justice in production is concerned with ensuring the benefits and burdens of work are distributed in a way that is reflective of persons' status as moral equals. While a variety of accounts of productive justice have been offered, insufficient attention has been paid to the distribution of work's benefits and burdens in the future. In this article, after granting for the sake of argument forecasts of widespread future technological unemployment, we consider the implications this has for egalitarian requirements of productive (...)
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  48. Prediction versus accommodation in economics.Robert Northcott - 2019 - Journal of Economic Methodology 26 (1):59-69.
    Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of (...)
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  49. The Decline of Western Science: Defending Spengler’s Account of the End of Science - Within Reason.Gregory Morgan Swer - 2019 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 50 (4):545-560.
    Haack classifies Spengler’s views on the end of science as what she terms annihilationist in that he forecasts the absolute termination of scientific activity as opposed to its completion or culmination. She also argues that in addition to his externalist argument that Western science, as cultural product, cannot survive the demise of Western Culture, Spengler also puts forward an internalist argument that science, regardless of the imminent demise of Western Culture, is in terminal decline as evidenced by its diminishing returns. (...)
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  50. Evaluation of Ukrainian banks’ business models by the structural and functional groups analysis method.Olena Zarutska, Lyudmila Novikova, Roman Pavlov, Tatyana Pavlova & Oksana Levkovich - 2022 - Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice 4 (45):8-20.
    A method of identifying banks’ business models and studying the features of their risk profile, considering the system of indicators featuring the structure of assets, liabilities, income, expenses, and other qualitative indicators based on monthly statistical reporting. Kohonen's self-organizing maps (SOM) are used to process large data sets, revealing objects’ hidden features by forming homogeneous groups according to similar values of a large system of indicators. The choice of the system of indicators that play the most significant role in describing (...)
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