Results for 'longtermism'

14 found
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  1. The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism.Christian Tarsney - manuscript
    Longtermism holds that what we ought to do is mainly determined by effects on the far future. A natural objection is that these effects may be nearly impossible to predict -- perhaps so close to impossible that, despite the astronomical importance of the far future, the expected value of our present options is mainly determined by short-term considerations. This paper aims to precisify and evaluate (a version of) this epistemic objection. To that end, I develop two simple models for (...)
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  2. The Moral Case for Long-Term Thinking.Hilary Greaves, William MacAskill & Elliott Thornley - forthcoming - In Natalie Cargill & Tyler M. John (eds.), The Long View: Essays on Policy, Philanthropy, and the Long-Term Future. London: FIRST. pp. 19-28.
    This chapter makes the case for strong longtermism: the claim that, in many situations, impact on the long-run future is the most important feature of our actions. Our case begins with the observation that an astronomical number of people could exist in the aeons to come. Even on conservative estimates, the expected future population is enormous. We then add a moral claim: all the consequences of our actions matter. In particular, the moral importance of what happens does not depend (...)
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  3.  35
    Time Discounting, Consistency, and Special Obligations: A Defence of Robust Temporalism.Harry R. Lloyd - 2021 - Global Priorities Institute, Working Papers 2021 (11):1-38.
    This paper defends the claim that mere temporal proximity always and without exception strengthens certain moral duties, including the duty to save – call this view Robust Temporalism. Although almost all other moral philosophers dismiss Robust Temporalism out of hand, I argue that it is prima facie intuitively plausible, and that it is analogous to a view about special obligations that many philosophers already accept. I also defend Robust Temporalism against several common objections, and I highlight its relevance to a (...)
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  4. The Space Object Ontology.Alexander Cox, Christopher Nebelecky, Ronald Rudnicki, William Tagliaferri, John L. Crassidis & Barry Smith - 2016 - In 19th International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2016). IEEE.
    Achieving space domain awareness requires the identification, characterization, and tracking of space objects. Storing and leveraging associated space object data for purposes such as hostile threat assessment, object identification, and collision prediction and avoidance present further challenges. Space objects are characterized according to a variety of parameters including their identifiers, design specifications, components, subsystems, capabilities, vulnerabilities, origins, missions, orbital elements, patterns of life, processes, operational statuses, and associated persons, organizations, or nations. The Space Object Ontology provides a consensus-based realist framework (...)
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  5. Longtermist Institutional Reform.Tyler John & William MacAskill - forthcoming - In Natalie Cargill & Tyler M. John (eds.), The Long View. London, UK: FIRST.
    In all probability, future generations will outnumber us by thousands or millions to one. In the aggregate, their interests therefore matter enormously, and anything we can do to steer the future of civilization onto a better trajectory is of tremendous moral importance. This is the guiding thought that defines the philosophy of longtermism. Political science tells us that the practices of most governments are at stark odds with longtermism. But the problems of political short-termism are neither necessary nor (...)
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  6. Urbanization and Political Development of the World System.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2013 - Entelequia 15:197-255.
    Section 1 of this article presents a mathematical analysis of the longterm global urbanization dynamics and demonstrates that it could be described as a series of phase transitions between attraction basins. This makes it possible to suggest new approaches to the analysis of global social macroevolution. Section 2 presents a threestage model of the macroevolution of the World System statehood (early – developed – mature state) that, we believe, describes the main features of political macroevolution better than the twostage model (...)
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  7. Exceeding Expectations: Stochastic Dominance as a General Decision Theory.Christian Tarsney - manuscript
    The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk (like Pascal's Mugging), and intolerably paradoxical in cases like the St. Petersburg and Pasadena games. In this paper I show that, under certain conditions, stochastic dominance reasoning can capture most of the plausible implications of expectational reasoning while avoiding most of its pitfalls. Specifically, given sufficient background uncertainty (...)
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  8. The Utility of Offshoring: A Rawlsian Critique.Julian Friedland - 2005 - Electronic Journal of Business Ethics and Organization Studies 10 (1):9-13.
    Most prominent arguments favoring the widespread discretionary business practice of sending jobs overseas, known as ‘offshoring,’ attempt to justify the trend by appeal to utilitarian principles. It is argued that when business can be performed more cost-effectively offshore, doing so tends, over the longterm, to achieve the greatest good for the greatest number. This claim is supported by evidence that exporting jobs actively promotes economic development overseas while simultaneously increasing the revenue of the exporting country. After showing that offshoring might (...)
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  9. Effective Altruism, Risk, and Human Extinction.Richard Pettigrew - manuscript
    A future in which humanity does not go extinct from something like a meteor strike or nuclear war might contain vast quantities of great happiness and human flourishing. But it might also contain vast quantities of great misery and wasted potential. Any effort to ensure a long happy future will have to strive both to ensure a long future, by reducing extinction risks, and to ensure it is a happy one, by improving the quality of life. Such an effort might (...)
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  10. The Long View: Essays on Policy, Philanthropy, and the Long-Term Future.Natalie Cargill & Tyler M. John (eds.) - 2021 - London: FIRST.
    Enclosed is a guidebook for philanthropists, advocates, and policymakers who want to do the most good possible. This book introduces the philosophy of “longtermism,” the idea that it is particularly important that we act now to safeguard future generations. -/- The future is vast in scale: depending on our choices in the coming centuries, the future could stretch for eons or it could dwindle into oblivion, and be inordinately good or inordinately bad. And yet future generations are utterly disenfranchised (...)
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  11. Features of franchising expansion into the Ukrainian tourist market.Victoriia Redko & Yurii V. Semych - 2020 - European Journal of Management Issues 28 (3):101-109.
    Purpose – to differency in the franchise model implementation by tour operators in the European and Ukrainian markets. Design/Method/Approach. A theoretical approach is based on generalization, system and comparative analysis, content analysis, statistical, and graphical and tabular methods. Findings. The research characterized business franchising models of the largest multidisciplinary tour operators of mass tourism in Ukraine. The general conditions of performing tourist activity on the principles of business franchising for travel agencies are determined. The authors clarified the differences between business (...)
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  12.  37
    Професійна етика як фактор становлення й розвитку соціально-відповідальної організаційної культури туристичного підприємства.Oleksandr Krupskyi - 2014 - Вісник Дніпропетровського Університету. Сер.: Світове Господарство І Міжнародні Економічні Відносини 6 (22):23-30.
    The purpose of the article is to analyze aspects of organizational culture of professional ethics in the travel and hospitality industry and to work out recommendations for improvement in the context of the transition to sustainable tourism. The methodological basis of the study is: a) a systematic approach that allowed to consider professional ethics not only its structural components, but also with functional connections and relationships; b) professiographic approach, which discovered the specifics of professional work in the tourism industry; c) (...)
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  13. Pascal's Mugger Strikes Again.Dylan Balfour - 2021 - Utilitas 33 (1):118-124.
    In a well-known paper, Nick Bostrom presents a confrontation between a fictionalised Blaise Pascal and a mysterious mugger. The mugger persuades Pascal to hand over his wallet by exploiting Pascal's commitment to expected utility maximisation. He does so by offering Pascal an astronomically high reward such that, despite Pascal's low credence in the mugger's truthfulness, the expected utility of accepting the mugging is higher than rejecting it. In this article, I present another sort of high value, low credence mugging. This (...)
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  14.  95
    Non-Additive Axiologies in Large Worlds.Christian Tarsney & Teruji Thomas - manuscript
    Is the overall value of a world just the sum of values contributed by each value-bearing entity in that world? Additively separable axiologies (like total utilitarianism, prioritarianism, and critical level views) say 'yes', but non-additive axiologies (like average utilitarianism, rank-discounted utilitarianism, and variable value views) say 'no'. This distinction is practically important: additive axiologies support 'arguments from astronomical scale' which suggest (among other things) that it is overwhelmingly important for humanity to avoid premature extinction and ensure the existence of a (...)
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