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  1. A Note on Incomplete Theory.Han Geurdes - manuscript
    In the paper it is demonstrated that Bell's theorem is unproveable.
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  2. Jacques Lacan’s Registers of the Psychoanalytic Field, Applied Using Geometric Data Analysis to Edgar Allan Poe’s “The Purloined Letter”.Fionn Murtagh & Giuseppe Iurato - manuscript
    In a first investigation, a Lacan-motivated template of the Poe story is fitted to the data. A segmentation of the storyline is used in order to map out the diachrony. Based on this, it will be shown how synchronous aspects, potentially related to Lacanian registers, can be sought. This demonstrates the effectiveness of an approach based on a model template of the storyline narrative. In a second and more Comprehensive investigation, we develop an approach for revealing, that is, uncovering, Lacanian (...)
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  3. Zastosowanie Wybranych Metod I Narzędzi Ilościowych W Naukach Ekonomicznych, Finansach I Informatyce: Monografia Zbiorowa.Maria Borowska, Igor Britchenko, Łukasz Jabłoński, Bogusław Kaczmarczyk, Aleksander Kasprzyk, Przemysław Leończyk, Paweł Maciaszczyk, Joanna Olszowy, Marcelina Słaba-Wiącek & Bożena Zygmunt - 2022 - Państwowa Uczelnia Zawodowa im. prof. Stanisława Tarnowskiego w Tarnobrzegu.
    Całość rozpoczyna teoretyczny rozdział matematyczno-statystyczny. Jego istota i charakter jest odmienny, od pozostałych dziewięciu rozdziałów praktyczno-specjalistycznych. Prezentuje on aparat matematyczno-statystyczny niezbędny do zrozumienia treści kolejnych kierunkowych już rozdziałów monografii. Treści merytoryczne tego rozdziału nie są zaprezentowane w formie systematycznego wykładu, czy prezentacji, ale przedstawiają jedynie sygnalnie i syntetycznie pojęcia, definicje, twierdzenia oraz zasady i metody, które stanowią fundament ich zastosowań w naukach ekonomicznych, finansach oraz informatyce. Rozdziały: od drugiego do dziesiątego są kierunkowymi rozdziałami specjalistycznymi i prezentują różne kierunki praktycznych zastosowań (...)
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  4. Implementing Dempster-Shafer Theory for Property Similarity in Conceptual Spaces Modeling.Jeremy R. Chapman, John L. Crassidis, James Llinas, Barry Smith & David Kasmier - 2022 - Sensor Systems and Information Systems IV, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) SCITECH Forum 2022.
    Previous work has shown that the Complex Conceptual Spaces − Single Observation Mathematical framework is a useful tool for event characterization. This mathematical framework is developed on the basis of Conceptual Spaces and uses integer linear programming to find the needed similarity values. The work of this paper is focused primarily on space event characterization. In particular, the focus is on the ranking of threats for malicious space events such as a kinetic kill. To make the Conceptual Spaces framework work, (...)
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  5. Changing Use of Formal Methods in Philosophy: Late 2000s Vs. Late 2010s.Samuel C. Fletcher, Joshua Knobe, Gregory Wheeler & Brian Allan Woodcock - 2021 - Synthese 199 (5-6):14555-14576.
    Traditionally, logic has been the dominant formal method within philosophy. Are logical methods still dominant today, or have the types of formal methods used in philosophy changed in recent times? To address this question, we coded a sample of philosophy papers from the late 2000s and from the late 2010s for the formal methods they used. The results indicate that the proportion of papers using logical methods remained more or less constant over that time period but the proportion of papers (...)
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  6. Microethics for Healthcare Data Science: Attention to Capabilities in Sociotechnical Systems.Mark Graves & Emanuele Ratti - 2021 - The Future of Science and Ethics 6:64-73.
    It has been argued that ethical frameworks for data science often fail to foster ethical behavior, and they can be difficult to implement due to their vague and ambiguous nature. In order to overcome these limitations of current ethical frameworks, we propose to integrate the analysis of the connections between technical choices and sociocultural factors into the data science process, and show how these connections have consequences for what data subjects can do, accomplish, and be. Using healthcare as an example, (...)
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  7. Papias's Prologue and the Probability of Parallels.Nevin Climenhaga - 2020 - Journal of Biblical Literature 139 (3):591-596.
    Several scholars, including Martin Hengel, R. Alan Culpepper, and Richard Bauckham, have argued that Papias had knowledge of the Gospel of John on the grounds that Papias’s prologue lists six of Jesus’s disciples in the same order that they are named in the Gospel of John: Andrew, Peter, Philip, Thomas, James, and John. In “A Note on Papias’s Knowledge of the Fourth Gospel” (JBL 129 [2010]: 793–794), Jake H. O’Connell presents a statistical analysis of this argument, according to which the (...)
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  8. The Radiocarbon Dating of the Turin Shroud: New Evidence From Raw Data.Tristan Casabianca, Emanuela Marinelli, Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi - 2019 - Archaeometry 5 (61):1223-1231.
    In 1988, three laboratories performed a radiocarbon analysis of the Turin Shroud. The results, which were centralized by the British Museum and published in Nature in 1989, provided ‘conclusive evidence’ of the medieval origin of the artefact. However, the raw data were never released by the institutions. In 2017, in response to a legal request, all raw data kept by the British Museum were made accessible. A statistical analysis of the Nature article and the raw data strongly suggests that homogeneity (...)
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  9. Why Do We Need to Employ Bayesian Statistics and How Can We Employ It in Studies of Moral Education?: With Practical Guidelines to Use JASP for Educators and Researchers.Hyemin Han - 2018 - Journal of Moral Education 47 (4):519-537.
    ABSTRACTIn this article, we discuss the benefits of Bayesian statistics and how to utilize them in studies of moral education. To demonstrate concrete examples of the applications of Bayesian statistics to studies of moral education, we reanalyzed two data sets previously collected: one small data set collected from a moral educational intervention experiment, and one big data set from a large-scale Defining Issues Test-2 survey. The results suggest that Bayesian analysis of data sets collected from moral educational studies can provide (...)
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  10. An Open Database of Productivity in Vietnam's Social Sciences and Humanities for Public Use.Quan-Hoang Vuong, Viet-Phuong La, Thu-Trang Vuong, Manh-Toan Ho, Hong K. T. Nguyen, Viet-Ha T. Nguyen, Hiep-Hung Pham & Manh-Tung Ho - 2018 - Scientific Data (Nature) 5 (180188):1-15.
    This study presents a description of an open database on scientific output of Vietnamese researchers in social sciences and humanities, one that corrects for the shortcomings in current research publication databases such as data duplication, slow update, and a substantial cost of doing science. Here, using scientists’ self-reports, open online sources and cross-checking with Scopus database, we introduce a manual system and its semi-automated version of the database on the profiles of 657 Vietnamese researchers in social sciences and humanities who (...)
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  11. Understanding Polarization: Meaning, Measures, and Model Evaluation.Aaron Bramson, Patrick Grim, Daniel J. Singer, William J. Berger, Graham Sack, Steven Fisher, Carissa Flocken & Bennett Holman - 2017 - Philosophy of Science 84 (1):115-159.
    Polarization is a topic of intense interest among social scientists, but there is significant disagreement regarding the character of the phenomenon and little understanding of underlying mechanics. A first problem, we argue, is that polarization appears in the literature as not one concept but many. In the first part of the article, we distinguish nine phenomena that may be considered polarization, with suggestions of appropriate measures for each. In the second part of the article, we apply this analysis to evaluate (...)
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  12. Uncertainty in Hiring Does Not Justify Affirmative Action.Thomas Mulligan - 2017 - Philosophia 45 (3):1299-1311.
    Luc Bovens has recently advanced a novel argument for affirmative action, grounded in the plausible idea that it is hard for an employer to evaluate the qualifications of candidates from underrepresented groups. Bovens claims that this provides a profit-maximizing employer with reason to shortlist prima facie less-qualified candidates from underrepresented groups. In this paper, I illuminate three flaws in Bovens’s argument. First, it suffers from model error: A rational employer does not incur costs to scrutinize candidates when it knows their (...)
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  13. Disambiguation of Social Polarization Concepts and Measures.Aaron Bramson, Patrick Grim, Daniel J. Singer, Steven Fisher, William Berger, Graham Sack & Carissa Flocken - 2016 - Journal of Mathematical Sociology 40:80-111.
    ABSTRACT This article distinguishes nine senses of polarization and provides formal measures for each one to refine the methodology used to describe polarization in distributions of attitudes. Each distinct concept is explained through a definition, formal measures, examples, and references. We then apply these measures to GSS data regarding political views, opinions on abortion, and religiosity—topics described as revealing social polarization. Previous breakdowns of polarization include domain-specific assumptions and focus on a subset of the distribution’s features. This has conflated multiple, (...)
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  14. Neonatal Diagnostics: Toward Dynamic Growth Charts of Neuromotor Control.Elizabeth B. Torres, Beth Smith, Sejal Mistry, Maria Brincker & Caroline Whyatt - 2016 - Frontiers in Pediatrics 4:121.
    The current rise of neurodevelopmental disorders poses a critical need to detect risk early in order to rapidly intervene. One of the tools pediatricians use to track development is the standard growth chart. The growth charts are somewhat limited in predicting possible neurodevelopmental issues. They rely on linear models and assumptions of normality for physical growth data – obscuring key statistical information about possible neurodevelopmental risk in growth data that actually has accelerated, non-linear rates-of-change and variability encompassing skewed distributions. Here, (...)
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  15. The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS) for Standardized and Reproducible Statistical Analysis.Jie Zheng, Marcelline R. Harris, Anna Maria Masci, Lin Yu, Alfred Hero, Barry Smith & Yongqun He - 2016 - Journal of Biomedical Semantics 7 (53).
    Statistics play a critical role in biological and clinical research. However, most reports of scientific results in the published literature make it difficult for the reader to reproduce the statistical analyses performed in achieving those results because they provide inadequate documentation of the statistical tests and algorithms applied. The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS) is put forward here as a step towards solving this problem. Terms in OBCS, including ‘data collection’, ‘data transformation in statistics’, ‘data visualization’, ‘statistical data (...)
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  16. Philosophical Controversies in the Evaluation of Medical Treatments : With a Focus on the Evidential Roles of Randomization and Mechanisms in Evidence-Based Medicine.Alexander Mebius - 2015 - Dissertation, KTH Royal Institute of Technology
    This thesis examines philosophical controversies surrounding the evaluation of medical treatments, with a focus on the evidential roles of randomised trials and mechanisms in Evidence-Based Medicine. Current 'best practice' usually involves excluding non-randomised trial evidence from systematic reviews in cases where randomised trials are available for inclusion in the reviews. The first paper challenges this practice and evaluates whether adding of evidence from non-randomised trials might improve the quality and precision of some systematic reviews. The second paper compares the alleged (...)
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  17. Refrain From Standards? French, Cavemen and Computers. A (Short) Story of Multidimensional Analysis in French Prehistoric Archaeology.Sébastien Plutniak - 2015 - In Oliver Schlaudt & Lara Huber (eds.), Standardization in Measurement. Philosophical and Sociological Issues. Londra, Regno Unito: pp. 39-52.
    Focusing on the history of prehistoric archaeology in the 20th century, this papers shows (1) that statistical multidimensional analyses were carried out by a new kind of actors who challenged the previous common language shared by prehistorians. This fundamental change was important, considering that (2) language is a fundamental point for the epistemology of archaeology. However, a comparison of multidimensional analyses applications over time shall make clear that (3) the differences are mostly a generational matter: the transmission processes between them (...)
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  18. The Inflationary and Deflationary Trends in the Global Economy, or ‘the Japanese Disease’ is Spreading.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (2):152-173.
    The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among nu-merous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the infla-tion in the Western countries still remains low. On the whole, (...)
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  19. Optimization Models for Reaction Networks: Information Divergence, Quadratic Programming and Kirchhoff’s Laws.Julio Michael Stern - 2014 - Axioms 109:109-118.
    This article presents a simple derivation of optimization models for reaction networks leading to a generalized form of the mass-action law, and compares the formal structure of Minimum Information Divergence, Quadratic Programming and Kirchhoff type network models. These optimization models are used in related articles to develop and illustrate the operation of ontology alignment algorithms and to discuss closely connected issues concerning the epistemological and statistical significance of sharp or precise hypotheses in empirical science.
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  20. Bayesian Test of Significance for Conditional Independence: The Multinomial Model.Julio Michael Stern, Pablo de Morais Andrade & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2014 - Entropy 16:1376-1395.
    Conditional independence tests have received special attention lately in machine learning and computational intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of probabilistic graphical models, which includes Bayesian network models, conditional independence tests are especially important for the task of learning the probabilistic graphical model structure from data. In this paper, we propose the full Bayesian significance test for tests of conditional independence for discrete datasets. The full Bayesian (...)
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  21. OBCS: The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics.Jie Zheng, Marcelline R. Harris, Anna Maria Masci, Yu Lin, Alfred Hero, Barry Smith & Yongqun He - 2014 - Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Biomedical Ontology 1327:65.
    Statistics play a critical role in biological and clinical research. To promote logically consistent representation and classification of statistical entities, we have developed the Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS). OBCS extends the Ontology of Biomedical Investigations (OBI), an OBO Foundry ontology supported by some 20 communities. Currently, OBCS contains 686 terms, including 381 classes imported from OBI and 147 classes specific to OBCS. The goal of this paper is to present OBCS for community critique and to describe a (...)
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  22. Estimation and Model Selection in Dirichlet Regression.Julio Michael Stern - 2012 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1443:206-213.
    We study Compositional Models based on Dirichlet Regression where, given a (vector) covariate x, one considers the response variable, y, to be a positive vector with a conditional Dirichlet distribution, y | X We introduce a new method for estimating the parameters of the Dirichlet Covariate Model given a linear model on X, and also propose a Bayesian model selection approach. We present some numerical results which suggest that our proposals are more stable and robust than traditional approaches.
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  23. Non-Arbitrage In Financial Markets: A Bayesian Approach for Verification.Julio Michael Stern & Fernando Valvano Cerezetti - 2012 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1490:87-96.
    The concept of non-arbitrage plays an essential role in finance theory. Under certain regularity conditions, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that, in non-arbitrage markets, prices of financial instruments are martingale processes. In this theoretical framework, the analysis of the statistical distributions of financial assets can assist in understanding how participants behave in the markets, and may or may not engender arbitrage conditions. Assuming an underlying Variance Gamma statistical model, this study aims to test, using the FBST - Full (...)
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  24. Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test Communications in Statistics.Julio Michael Stern, Marcio Alves Diniz & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2012 - Communications in Statistics 41 (19):3562-3574.
    To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that “the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results”. The (...)
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  25. FBST for Covariance Structures of Generalized Gompertz Models.Julio Michael Stern & Viviane Teles de Lucca Maranhao - 2012 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1490:202-211.
    The Gompertz distribution is commonly used in biology for modeling fatigue and mortality. This paper studies a class of models proposed by Adham and Walker, featuring a Gompertz type distribution where the dependence structure is modeled by a lognormal distribution, and develops a new multivariate formulation that facilitates several numerical and computational aspects. This paper also implements the FBST, the Full Bayesian Significance Test for pertinent sharp (precise) hypotheses on the lognormal covariance structure. The FBST’s e-value, ev(H), gives the epistemic (...)
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  26. Unit Roots: Bayesian Significance Test.Julio Michael Stern, Marcio Alves Diniz & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2011 - Communications in Statistics 40 (23):4200-4213.
    The unit root problem plays a central role in empirical applications in the time series econometric literature. However, significance tests developed under the frequentist tradition present various conceptual problems that jeopardize the power of these tests, especially for small samples. Bayesian alternatives, although having interesting interpretations and being precisely defined, experience problems due to the fact that that the hypothesis of interest in this case is sharp or precise. The Bayesian significance test used in this article, for the unit root (...)
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  27. Steps Towards a Unified Basis for Scientific Models and Methods.Inge S. Helland - 2010 - World Scientific.
    The book attempts to build a bridge across three cultures: mathematical statistics, quantum theory and chemometrical methods.
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  28. FBST for a Generalized Poisson Distribution.Julio Michael Stern, Paulo do Canto Hubert & Marcelo de Souza Lauretto - 2009 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1193:210-217.
    The Generalized Poisson Distribution (GPD) adds an extra parameter to the usual Poisson distribution. This parameter induces a loss of homogeneity in the stochastic processes modeled by the distribution. Thus, the generalized distribution becomes an useful model for counting processes where the occurrence of events is not homogeneous. This model creates the need for an inferential procedure, to test for the value of this extra parameter. The FBST (Full Bayesian Significance Test) is a Bayesian hypotheses test procedure, capable of providing (...)
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  29. A Straightforward Multiallelic Significance Test for the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium Law.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Fabio Nakano, Silvio Rodrigues Faria & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2009 - Genetics and Molecular Biology 32 (3):619-625.
    Much forensic inference based upon DNA evidence is made assuming Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) for the genetic loci being used. Several statistical tests to detect and measure deviation from HWE have been devised, and their limitations become more obvious when testing for deviation within multiallelic DNA loci. The most popular methods-Chi-square and Likelihood-ratio tests-are based on asymptotic results and cannot guarantee a good performance in the presence of low frequency genotypes. Since the parameter space dimension increases at a quadratic rate on (...)
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  30. Hierarchical Forecasting with Polynomial Nets.Julio Michael Stern, Fabio Nakano, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2009 - Studies in Computational Intelligence 199:305-315.
    This article presents a two level hierarchical forecasting model developed in a consulting project for a Brazilian magazine publishing company. The first level uses a VARMA model and considers econometric variables. The second level takes into account qualitative aspects of each publication issue, and is based on polynomial networks generated by Genetic Programming (GP).
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  31. Factor Structure of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI): Findings From a Large Incarcerated Sample.Craig S. Neumann, Melanie B. Malterer & Joseph Newman - 2008 - Psychological Assessment 20 (2):169–174.
    Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI; S. O. Lilienfeld, 1990; S. O. Lilienfeld & B. P. Andrews, 1996) with a community sample has suggested that the PPI subscales may comprise 2 higher order factors (S. D. Benning, C. J. Patrick, B. M. Hicks, D. M. Blonigen, & R. F. Krueger, 2003). However, substantive and structural evidence raises concerns about the viability of this 2-factor model, particularly in offender populations. The authors attempted to replicate the S. D. (...)
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  32. The Full Bayesian Significance Test for Mixture Models: Results in Gene Expression Clustering.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2008 - Genetics and Molecular Research 7 (3):883-897.
    Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if (...)
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  33. Special Characterizations of Standard Discrete Models.Julio Michael Stern & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2008 - RevStat – Statistical Journal 6:199-230.
    This article presents important properties of standard discrete distributions and its conjugate densities. The Bernoulli and Poisson processes are described as generators of such discrete models. A characterization of distributions by mixtures is also introduced. This article adopts a novel singular notation and representation. Singular representations are unusual in statistical texts. Nevertheless, the singular notation makes it simpler to extend and generalize theoretical results and greatly facilitates numerical and computational implementation.
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  34. A New Media Optimizer Based on the Mean-Variance Model.Julio Michael Stern - 2007 - Pesquisa Operacional, 27 (3):427-456.
    In the financial markets, there is a well established portfolio optimization model called generalized mean-variance model (or generalized Markowitz model). This model considers that a typical investor, while expecting returns to be high, also expects returns to be as certain as possible. In this paper we introduce a new media optimization system based on the mean-variance model, a novel approach in media planning. After presenting the model in its full generality, we discuss possible advantages of the mean-variance paradigm, such as (...)
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  35. The Problem of Separate Hypotheses Via Mixtures Models.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Silvio Rodrigues Faria & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2007 - AIP Conference Proceedings 954:268-275.
    This article describes the Full Bayesian Significance Test for the problem of separate hypotheses. Numerical experiments are performed for the Gompertz vs. Weibull life span test.
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  36. Understanding and Calculating the Odds: Probability Theory Basics and Calculus Guide for Beginners, with Applications in Games of Chance and Everyday Life.Catalin Barboianu - 2006 - Craiova, Romania: Infarom.
    This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes.
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  37. Phương pháp thống kê xây dựng mô hình định mức tín nhiệm khách hàng thể nhân.Vương Quân Hoàng - 2006 - Vietnam Journal of Mathematical Applications 4 (2):1-16.
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  38. Genuine Bayesian Multiallelic Significance Test for the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium Law.Julio Michael Stern, Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira, Fabio Nakano & Martin Ritter Whittle - 2006 - Genetics and Molecular Research 5 (4):619-631.
    Statistical tests that detect and measure deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) have been devised but are limited when testing for deviation at multiallelic DNA loci is attempted. Here we present the full Bayesian significance test (FBST) for the HWE. This test depends neither on asymptotic results nor on the number of possible alleles for the particular locus being evaluated. The FBST is based on the computation of an evidence index in favor of the HWE hypothesis. A great deal of (...)
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  39. Testing Significance in Bayesian Classifiers.Julio Michael Stern & Marcelo de Souza Lauretto - 2005 - Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications 132:34-41.
    The Fully Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) is a coherent Bayesian significance test for sharp hypotheses. This paper explores the FBST as a model selection tool for general mixture models, and gives some computational experiments for Multinomial-Dirichlet-Normal-Wishart models.
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  40. FBST for Mixture Model Selection.Julio Michael Stern & Marcelo de Souza Lauretto - 2005 - AIP Conference Proceedings 803:121-128.
    The Fully Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) is a coherent Bayesian significance test for sharp hypotheses. This paper proposes the FBST as a model selection tool for general mixture models, and compares its performance with Mclust, a model-based clustering software. The FBST robust performance strongly encourages further developments and investigations.
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  41. Методология определения емкости товарного рынка.Sergii Sardak & Сардак С.Э - 2004 - Актуальні Проблеми Економіки 1:86-91.
    В статье предлагается методология, представляющая последовательность выполнения мероприятий по определению емкости товарного рынка.
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  42. Full Bayesian Significance Test Applied to Multivariate Normal Structure Models.Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira, Julio Michael Stern & Shelemiahu Zacks - 2003 - Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics 17:147-168.
    Abstract: The Pull Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hy- potheses is applied to a Multivariate Normal Structure (MNS) model. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. This evi- dence is the probability of the Highest Relative Surprise Set (HRSS) tangent to the sub-manifold (of the parameter space) that defines the null hypothesis. The MNS model we present appears when testing equivalence conditions for genetic expression measurements, using micro-array technology.
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  43. Bayesian Evidence Test for Precise Hypotheses.Julio Michael Stern - 2003 - Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 117 (2):185-198.
    The full Bayesian signi/cance test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is presented, with some illustrative applications. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. We discuss some of the theoretical properties of the FBST, and provide an invariant formulation for coordinate transformations, provided a reference density has been established. This evidence is the probability of the highest relative surprise set, “tangential” to the sub-manifold (of the parameter space) that defines the null hypothesis.
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  44. Enviromental Genotoxicity Evaluation: Bayesian Approach for a Mixture Statistical Model.Julio Michael Stern, Angela Maria de Souza Bueno, Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira & Maria Nazareth Rabello-Gay - 2002 - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 16:267–278.
    The data analyzed in this paper are part of the results described in Bueno et al. (2000). Three cytogenetics endpoints were analyzed in three populations of a species of wild rodent – Akodon montensis – living in an industrial, an agricultural, and a preservation area at the Itajaí Valley, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The polychromatic/normochromatic ratio, the mitotic index, and the frequency of micronucleated polychromatic erythrocites were used in an attempt to establish a genotoxic profile of each area. It (...)
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  45. Testing the Independence of Poisson Variates Under the Holgate Bivariate Distribution: The Power of a New Evidence Test.Julio Michael Stern & Shelemyahu Zacks - 2002 - Statistics and Probability Letters 60:313-320.
    A new Evidence Test is applied to the problem of testing whether two Poisson random variables are dependent. The dependence structure is that of Holgate’s bivariate distribution. These bivariate distribution depends on three parameters, 0 < theta_1, theta_2 < infty, and 0 < theta_3 < min(theta_1, theta_2). The Evidence Test was originally developed as a Bayesian test, but in the present paper it is compared to the best known test of the hypothesis of independence in a frequentist framework. It is (...)
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  46. A Weibull Wearout Test: Full Bayesian Approach.Julio Michael Stern, Telba Zalkind Irony, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2001 - Reliability and Engineering Statistics 5:287-300.
    The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is presented, with some applications relevant to reliability theory. The FBST is an alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-ualue.s. In the FBST we compute the evidence of the precise hypothesis. This evidence is the probability of the complement of a credible set "tangent" to the sub-manifold (of the para,rreter space) that defines the null hypothesis. We use the FBST in an application requiring a quality control of used components, based (...)
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  47. FBST Regularization and Model Selection.Julio Michael Stern & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2001 - In Annals of the 7th International Conference on Information Systems Analysis and Synthesis. Orlando FL: pp. 7: 60-65..
    We show how the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) can be used as a model selection criterion. The FBST was presented by Pereira and Stern as a coherent Bayesian significance test. Key Words: Bayesian test; Evidence; Global optimization; Information; Model selection; Numerical integration; Posterior density; Precise hypothesis; Regularization. AMS: 62A15; 62F15; 62H15.
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  48. Actuarial Analysis Via Branching Processes.Julio Michael Stern & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2000 - Annals of the 6th ISAS-SCI 8:353-358.
    We describe a software system for the analysis of defined benefit actuarial plans. The system uses a recursive formulation of the actuarial stochastic processes to implement precise and efficient computations of individual and group cash flows.
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  49. Evidence and Credibility: Full Bayesian Significance Test for Precise Hypotheses.Julio Michael Stern & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 1999 - Entropy 1 (1):69-80.
    A Bayesian measure of evidence for precise hypotheses is presented. The intention is to give a Bayesian alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-values. In fact, a set is defined in the parameter space and the posterior probability, its credibility, is evaluated. This set is the “Highest Posterior Density Region” that is “tangent” to the set that defines the null hypothesis. Our measure of evidence is the complement of the credibility of the “tangent” region.
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  50. Real Attribute Learning Algorithm.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Fabio Nakano & Celma de Oliveira Ribeiro - 1998 - ISAS-SCI’98 2:315-321.
    This paper presents REAL, a Real-Valued Attribute Classification Tree Learning Algorithm. Several of the algorithm's unique features are explained by úe users' demands for a decision support tool to be used for evaluating financial operations strategies. Compared to competing algorithms, in our applications, REAL presents maj or advantages : (1) The REAL classification trees usually have smaller error rates. (2) A single conviction (or trust) measure at each leaf is more convenient than the traditional (probability, confidence-level) pair. (3) No need (...)
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