Results for 'credit risk modeling'

998 found
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  1. Credit Risk Modeling Using Default Models: A Review.George Jumbe & Ravi Gor - 2022 - IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance 13 (3):28-39.
    Credit risk, also known as default risk, is the likelihood of a corporation losing money if a business partner defaults. If the liabilities are not met under the terms of the contract, the firm may default, resulting in the loss of the company. There is no clear way to distinguish between organizations that will default and those that will not prior to default. We can only make probabilistic estimations of the risk of default at best. There (...)
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  2.  47
    The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling.Tim Xiao - manuscript
    This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, (...)
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  3.  90
    Is the Jump-Diffusion Model a Good Solution for Credit Risk Modeling? The Case of Convertible Bonds.Tim Xiao - 2015 - International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives 4 (1):1-25.
    This paper argues that the reduced-form jump diffusion model may not be appropriate for credit risk modeling. To correctly value hybrid defaultable financial instruments, e.g., convertible bonds, we present a new framework that relies on the probability distribution of a default jump rather than the default jump itself, as the default jump is usually inaccessible. As such, the model can back out the market prices of convertible bonds. A prevailing belief in the market is that convertible arbitrage (...)
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  4.  51
    The Valuation of Credit Default Swap with Counterparty Risk and Collateralization.Tim Xiao - manuscript
    This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. In other words, full collateralization cannot eliminate (...)
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  5. An Accurate Solution for Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Wrong Way Risk.Tim Xiao - 2015 - Journal of Fixed Incom 25 (1):84-95.
    This paper presents a Least Square Monte Carlo approach for accurately calculating credit value adjustment (CVA). In contrast to previous studies, the model relies on the probability distribution of a default time/jump rather than the default time itself, as the default time is usually inaccessible. As such, the model can achieve a high order of accuracy with a relatively easy implementation. We find that the valuation of a defaultable derivative is normally determined via backward induction when their payoffs could (...)
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  6. Reputation risks, value of losses and financial sustainability of commercial banks.Natalia Kunitsyna, Igor Britchenko & Igor Kunitsyn - 2018 - Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues 5 (4):943-955.
    Currently, under the conditions of permanent financial risks that hamper the sustainable economic growth in the financial sector, the development of evaluation and risk management methods both regulated by Basel II and III and others seem to be of special importance. The reputation risk is one of significant risks affecting reliability and credibility of commercial banks. The importance of reputation risk management and the quality of their assessment remain relevant as the probability of decrease in or loss (...)
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  7. A Merton Model of Credit Risk with Jumps.Hoang Thi Phuong Thao & Quan-Hoang Vuong - 2015 - Journal of Statistics Applications and Probability Letters 2 (2):97-103.
    In this note, we consider a Merton model for default risk, where the firm’s value is driven by a Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process.
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  8.  38
    Pricing Financial Derivatives Subject to Multilateral Credit Risk and Collateralization.Tim Xiao - manuscript
    This article presents a new model for valuing financial contracts subject to credit risk and collateralization. Examples include the valuation of a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully (...)
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  9.  95
    A Simple and Precise Method for Pricing Convertible Bond with Credit Risk.Tim Xiao - 2013 - Journal of Derivatives and Hedge Funds 19 (4):259-277.
    This paper presents a new model for valuing hybrid defaultable financial instruments, such as, convertible bonds. In contrast to previous studies, the model relies on the probability distribution of a default jump rather than the default jump itself, as the default jump is usually inaccessible. As such, the model can back out the market prices of convertible bonds. A prevailing belief in the market is that convertible arbitrage is mainly due to convertible underpricing. Empirically, however, we do not find evidence (...)
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  10. The credit incentive to be a maverick.Remco Heesen - 2019 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 76:5-12.
    There is a commonly made distinction between two types of scientists: risk-taking, trailblazing mavericks and detail-oriented followers. A number of recent papers have discussed the question what a desirable mixture of mavericks and followers looks like. Answering this question is most useful if a scientific community can be steered toward such a desirable mixture. One attractive route is through credit incentives: manipulating rewards so that reward-seeking scientists are likely to form the desired mixture of their own accord. Here (...)
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  11.  89
    The Valuation of Financial Derivatives Subject to Counterparty Risk and Credit Value Adjustment.Tim Xiao - manuscript
    This article presents a generic model for pricing financial derivatives subject to counterparty credit risk. Both unilateral and bilateral types of credit risks are considered. Our study shows that credit risk should be modeled as American style options in most cases, which require a backward induction valuation. To correct a common mistake in the literature, we emphasize that the market value of a defaultable derivative is actually a risky value rather than a risk-free value. (...)
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  12. 'Information as a Condition of Justice in Financial Markets: The Regulation of Credit-Rating Agencies.Boudewijn De Bruin - 2017 - In Lisa Maria Herzog (ed.), Just Financial Markets? Finance in a Just Society. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 250-270.
    This chapter argues for deregulation of the credit-rating market. Credit-rating agencies are supposed to contribute to the informational needs of investors trading bonds. They provide ratings of debt issued by corporations and governments, as well as of structured debt instruments (e.g. mortgage-backed securities). As many academics, regulators, and commentators have pointed out, the ratings of structured instruments turned out to be highly inaccurate, and, as a result, they have argued for tighter regulation of the industry. This chapter shows, (...)
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  13.  77
    Ontological Analysis and Redesign of Security Modeling in ArchiMate.Ítalo Oliveira, Tiago Prince Sales, João Paulo A. Almeida, Riccardo Baratella, Mattia Fumagalli & Giancarlo Guizzardi - forthcoming - PoEM 2022: The Practice of Enterprise Modeling 2022, Proceedings:1-16.
    Enterprise Risk Management and security have become a fundamental part of Enterprise Architecture, so several frameworks and modeling languages have been designed to support the activities associated with these areas. Archi- Mate’s Risk and Security Overlay is one of such proposals, endorsed by The Open Group. We investigate the capabilities of the proposed security-related con- structs in ArchiMate with regard to the necessities of enterprise security modeling. Our analysis relies on a well-founded reference ontology of security (...)
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  14. Conceptual Space Modeling for Space Event Characterization.Jeremy R. Chapman, David Kasmier, David Limbaugh, Stephen R. Gagnon, John L. Crassidis, James Llinas, Barry Smith & Alexander P. Cox - 2020 - IEEE 23rd International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION).
    This paper provides a method for characterizing space events using the framework of conceptual spaces. We focus specifically on estimating and ranking the likelihood of collisions between space objects. The objective is to design an approach for anticipatory decision support for space operators who can take preventive actions on the basis of assessments of relative risk. To make this possible our approach draws on the fusion of both hard and soft data within a single decision support framework. Contextual data (...)
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  15. An Ontology of Security from a Risk Treatment Perspective.Ítalo Oliveira, Tiago Prince Sales, Riccardo Baratella, Mattia Fumagalli & Giancarlo Guizzardi - forthcoming - In 41th International Conference, ER 2022, Proceedings. Cham: Springer.
    In Risk Management, security issues arise from complex relations among objects and agents, their capabilities and vulnerabilities, the events they are involved in, and the value and risk they ensue to the stakeholders at hand. Further, there are patterns involving these relations that crosscut many domains, ranging from information security to public safety. Understanding and forming a shared conceptualization and vocabulary about these notions and their relations is fundamental for modeling the corresponding scenarios, so that proper security (...)
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  16. Greenwash and Green Trust: The Mediation Effects of Green Consumer Confusion and Green Perceived Risk[REVIEW]Yu-Shan Chen & Ching-Hsun Chang - 2013 - Journal of Business Ethics 114 (3):489-500.
    The paper explores the influence of greenwash on green trust and discusses the mediation roles of green consumer confusion and green perceived risk. The research object of this study focuses on Taiwanese consumers who have the purchase experience of information and electronics products in Taiwan. This research employs an empirical study by means of the structural equation modeling. The results show that greenwash is negatively related to green trust. Therefore, this study suggests that companies must reduce their greenwash (...)
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  17.  40
    Detection and Mathematical Modeling of Anxiety Disorder Based on Socioeconomic Factors Using Machine Learning Techniques.Razan Ibrahim Alsuwailem & Surbhi Bhatia - 2022 - Human-Centric Computing and Information Sciences 12:52.
    The mental risk poses a high threat to the individuals, especially overseas demographic, including expatriates in comparison to the general Arab demographic. Since Arab countries are renowned for their multicultural environment with half of the population of students and faculties being international, this paper focuses on a comprehensive analysis of mental health problems such as depression, stress, anxiety, isolation, and other unfortunate conditions. The dataset is developed from a web-based survey. The detailed exploratory data analysis is conducted on the (...)
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  18.  20
    16 The logic of lockdowns: a game of modeling and evidence.Wesley J. Park - 2022 - BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine 27 (Suppl 1):A59.
    Lockdowns, or modern quarantines, involve the use of novel restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to suppress the transmission of COVID-19. In this paper, I aim to critically analyze the emerging history and philosophy of lockdowns, with an emphasis on the communication of health evidence and risk for informing policy decisions. I draw a distinction between evidence-based and modeling-based decision-making. I argue that using the normative framework of evidence-based medicine would have recommended against the use of lockdowns. I first review (...)
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  19.  46
    The Lending Limits as a Tool to Curb the Credit Cycle: the Case of Vietnam.Dmitry V. Burakov - 2015 - Upravlenets 5 (57):15-23.
    This article discusses the management of cycli- cal dynamics of the credit sphere. Considering the fact that conventional methods of monetary policy proved to be vulnerable to the process of accumula- tion and realization of risk in the credit sector, we aim to study heterodox methods of credit market regula- tion – administrative (direct) methods of control over fluctuations on the credit market. In particular, based on the analysis of credit limits used in the (...)
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  20.  40
    The Valuation of Interest Rate Swap with Bilateral Counterparty Risk.Tim Xiao - manuscript
    This paper presents an analytical model for valuing interest rate swaps, subject to bilateral counterparty credit risk. The counterparty defaults are modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.
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  21. Optimization of commodity stocks enterprise by means of HML-FRM clustering.Igor Britchenko & Maksym Bezpartochnyi - 2020 - Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice 3 (34(2020)):259-269.
    The article examines the process of formation inventory of the enterprise and determines the optimal volume of commodity resources for sale. A generalization of author’s approaches to the formation and evaluation of inventories of the enterprise is carried out. The marketing-logistic approach was applied for the purpose of distribution groups of commodity resources due to the risk of non-fulfillment the order for the supply of goods of the enterprise. In order to ensure an effective process of commodity provision of (...)
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  22.  64
    A New Model for Pricing Collateralized Financial Derivatives.Tim Xiao - 2017 - Journal of Derivatives 24 (4):8-20.
    This paper presents a new model for pricing OTC derivatives subject to collateralization. It allows for collateral posting adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out the market price of a collateralized contract. This framework is very useful for valuing outstanding derivatives. Using a unique dataset, we find empirical evidence that credit risk alone is not overly important in determining credit-related spreads. Only accounting for both collateral arrangement and credit risk can sufficiently (...)
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  23.  89
    Modelling Change in Individual Characteristics: An Axiomatic Framework.Franz Dietrich - 2012 - Games and Economic Behavior 76 (5):471-94.
    Economic models describe individuals in terms of underlying characteristics, such as taste for some good, sympathy level for another player, time discount rate, risk attitude, and so on. In real life, such characteristics change through experiences: taste for Mozart changes through listening to it, sympathy for another player through observing his moves, and so on. Models typically ignore change, not just for simplicity but also because it is unclear how to incorporate change. I introduce a general axiomatic framework for (...)
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  24. Research Habits in Financial Modelling: The Case of Non-normativity of Market Returns in the 1970s and the 1980s.Boudewijn De Bruin & Christian Walter - 2017 - In Emiliano Ippoliti & Ping Chen (eds.), Methods and Finance: A Unifying View on Finance, Mathematics, and Philosophy. Cham: Springer. pp. 73-93.
    In this chapter, one considers finance at its very foundations, namely, at the place where assumptions are being made about the ways to measure the two key ingredients of finance: risk and return. It is well known that returns for a large class of assets display a number of stylized facts that cannot be squared with the traditional views of 1960s financial economics (normality and continuity assumptions, i.e. Brownian representation of market dynamics). Despite the empirical counterevidence, normality and continuity (...)
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  25. Management of innovative development the economic entities: collective monograph.Igor Britchenko & Maksym Bezpartochnyi (eds.) - 2018 - 33-300 Новы-Сонч, Польша: Wydawnictwo i Drukarnia Nova Sandec.
    The authors of the book have come to the conclusion that it is necessary to effectively use modern approaches the management of innovative development the economic entities in order to increase the efficiency of activity, to ensure competitiveness, to intensify innovation activity. Basic research focuses on assessing the competition of economic entities, internal control in organizations, analysis of credit risk, diagnostics of sources of funding for innovation, assessment of social innovation and human development factors. The research results have (...)
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  26.  46
    An Economic Examination of Collateralization in Different Financial Markets.Tim Xiao - manuscript
    This paper attempts to assess the economic significance and implications of collateralization in different financial markets, which is essentially a matter of theoretical justification and empirical verification. We present a comprehensive theoretical framework that allows for collateralization adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out differences in asset prices due to collateralized counterparty risk. This framework is very useful for pricing outstanding defaultable financial contracts. By using a unique data set, we are able to achieve a (...)
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  27. Central Banks policy under sanctions: critical assessment of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation experience.Vitaliy Shapran & Igor Britchenko - 2022 - VUZF REVIEW 7 (1):6-13.
    The article provides a critical assessment of The Central Bank of the Russian Federation policy in response to the sanctions of the US, the EU, the UK, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea and a number of other countries. The effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and its financial market is viewed through the prism of credit, interest rate, and currency risk, and the risk of a decline in business activity. Special attention is paid to the inflationary component (...)
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  28. The potential for climate engineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to reduce climate injustice.Toby Svoboda, Peter J. Irvine, Daniel Callies & Masahiro Sugiyama - 2018 - Journal of Global Ethics 14 (3):353-368.
    Climate engineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SSAI) has the potential to reduce risks of injustice related to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Relying on evidence from modeling studies, this paper makes the case that SSAI could have the potential to reduce many of the key physical risks of climate change identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Such risks carry potential injustice because they are often imposed on low-emitters who do not benefit from climate change. Because SSAI (...)
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  29.  76
    TORC3: Token-Ring Clearing Heuristic for Currency Circulation.Julio Michael Stern, Carlos Humes, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Fabio Nakano, Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira & Guilherme Frederico Gazineu Rafare - 2012 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1490:179-188.
    Clearing algorithms are at the core of modern payment systems, facilitating the settling of multilateral credit messages with (near) minimum transfers of currency. Traditional clearing procedures use batch processing based on MILP - mixed-integer linear programming algorithms. The MILP approach demands intensive computational resources; moreover, it is also vulnerable to operational risks generated by possible defaults during the inter-batch period. This paper presents TORC3 - the Token-Ring Clearing Algorithm for Currency Circulation. In contrast to the MILP approach, TORC3 is (...)
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  30. Disentangling the Epistemic Failings of the 2008 Financial Crisis.Lisa Warenski - 2018 - In David Coady & James Chase (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Applied Epistemology. Routledge. pp. 196-210.
    I argue that epistemic failings are a significant and underappreciated moral hazard in the financial services industry. I argue further that an analysis of these epistemic failings and their means of redress is best developed by identifying policies and procedures that are likely to facilitate good judgment. These policies and procedures are “best epistemic practices.” I explain how best epistemic practices support good reasoning, thereby facilitating accurate judgments about risk and reward. Failures to promote and adhere to best epistemic (...)
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  31. SME bonds in European countries as a new approach to financing.Yevheniia Polishchuk, Igor Britchenko, M. Dyba & O. Svyrydenko - 2018 - In Development of small and medium enterprises: the EU and east-partnership countries experience: collective monograph. pp. 8 - 22.
    Nowadays a lot of new financial instruments for SMEs innovation projects are getting more popular in the business environment. A great number of them are traditional like credit loans at the same time we can observe the appearance of innovative ones. Variable set of financial instruments generalized on fig.1. This classification is giving by Organiztion of Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD). As we can see from the fig.1 the classification is based on risk approach. For further research (...)
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  32.  44
    Phương pháp thống kê xây dựng mô hình định mức tín nhiệm khách hàng thể nhân.Vương Quân Hoàng - 2006 - Vietnam Journal of Mathematical Applications 4 (2):1-16.
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  33. Incentivizing Replication Is Insufficient to Safeguard Default Trust.Hugh Desmond - 2021 - Philosophy of Science 88 (5):906-917.
    Philosophers of science and metascientists alike typically model scientists’ behavior as driven by credit maximization. In this article I argue that this modeling assumption cannot account for how scientists have a default level of trust in each other’s assertions. The normative implication of this is that science policy should not focus solely on incentive reform.
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  34. Self-Ownership and the Conflation Problem.David Sobel - forthcoming - In Mark Timmons (ed.), Oxford Studies in Normative Ethics.
    Libertarian self-ownership views in the tradition of Locke, Nozick, and the left-libertarians have supposed that we enjoy very powerful deontological protections against infringing upon our property. Such a conception makes sense when we are focused on property that is very important to its owner, such as a person’s kidney. However, this stringency of our property rights is harder to credit when we consider more trivial infringements such as very mildly toxic pollution or trivial risks such having planes fly overhead. (...)
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  35. Epidemics from the Population Perspective.Jonathan Fuller - 2022 - Philosophy of Science 89 (2):232-251.
    Many epidemics consist in individuals spreading infection to others. From the population perspective, they also have population characteristics important in modeling, explaining, and intervening in epidemics. I analyze epidemiology’s contemporary population perspective through the example of epidemics by examining two central principles attributed to Geoffrey Rose: a distinction between the causes of cases and the causes of incidence, and between “high-risk” and “population” strategies of prevention. Both principles require revision or clarification to capture the sense in which they (...)
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  36.  62
    Building Community Capacity with Philosophy: Toolbox Dialogue and Climate Resilience.Bryan Cwik, Chad Gonnerman, Michael O'Rourke, Brian Robinson & Daniel Schoonmaker - 2022 - Ecology and Society 27 (2).
    In this article, we describe a project in which philosophy, in combination with methods drawn from mental modeling, was used to structure dialogue among stakeholders in a region-scale climate adaptation process. The case study we discuss synthesizes the Toolbox dialogue method, a philosophically grounded approach to enhancing communication and collaboration in complex research and practice, with a mental modeling approach rooted in risk analysis, assessment, and communication to structure conversations among non-academic stakeholders who have a common interest (...)
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  37. The Neural Substrates of Conscious Perception without Performance Confounds.Jorge Morales, Brian Odegaard & Brian Maniscalco - forthcoming - In Felipe De Brigard & Walter Sinnott-Armstrong (eds.), Anthology of Neuroscience and Philosophy.
    To find the neural substrates of consciousness, researchers compare subjects’ neural activity when they are aware of stimuli against neural activity when they are not aware. Ideally, to guarantee that the neural substrates of consciousness—and nothing but the neural substrates of consciousness—are isolated, the only difference between these two contrast conditions should be conscious awareness. Nevertheless, in practice, it is quite challenging to eliminate confounds and irrelevant differences between conscious and unconscious conditions. In particular, there is an often-neglected confound that (...)
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  38. Termination of International Sale Contract.Bashar H. Malkawi - 2019 - Law and Philosophy:1-23.
    Termination in international contracts is considered a harsh sanction that harms international trade for each breach of contract or its provisions. The interest of international trade is fulfilled in maintaining and completing performance of contract, even if with a breach rectifiable by remedy. The termination destroys the contract and results in returning goods after their dispatch in addition to the accompanying new freight and insurance expenses and administrative and health procedures necessary for the entry and exit of goods and to (...)
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  39.  52
    Evolution and Autonomy.Paul Studtmann & Shyam Gouri-Suresh - manuscript
    The use of evolutionary game theory to explain the evolution of human norms and the behavior of humans who act according to those norms is widespread. Both the aims and motivation for its use are clearly articulated by Harms and Skyrms (2008) in the following passage: "A good theory of evolution of norms might start by explaining the evolution of altruism in Prisoner’s Dilemma, of Stag Hunting, and of the equal split in the symmetric bargaining game. These are not well-explained (...)
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  40. The role of mental accounting in everyday economic decision making.Tommy Gärling, Niklas Karlsson & Marcus Selart - 1999 - In Peter Juslin & Henry Montgomery (eds.), Judgment and decision making. Erlbaum. pp. 199-218.
    Mental accounting is a concept associated with the work of Richard Thaler. According to Thaler, people think of value in relative rather than absolute terms. They derive pleasure not just from an object’s value, but also the quality of the deal – its transaction utility (Thaler, 1985). In addition, humans often fail to fully consider opportunity costs (tradeoffs) and are susceptible to the sunk cost fallacy. Why are people willing to spend more when they pay with a credit card (...)
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  41. Probability Guide to Gambling: The Mathematics of Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets.Catalin Barboianu - 2006 - Craiova, Romania: Infarom.
    Over the past two decades, gamblers have begun taking mathematics into account more seriously than ever before. While probability theory is the only rigorous theory modeling the uncertainty, even though in idealized conditions, numerical probabilities are viewed not only as mere mathematical information, but also as a decision-making criterion, especially in gambling. This book presents the mathematics underlying the major games of chance and provides a precise account of the odds associated with all gaming events. It begins by explaining (...)
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  42.  34
    Related Party Transactions, State Ownership, the Cost of Corporate Debt, and Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Vietnam.Trinh Thi My Nguyen - 2020 - Dissertation, University of Adelaide
    This thesis consists of three papers examining determinants and implications of related party transactions (RPTs) in Vietnam, a transitional economy in South East Asia with features of concentrated state ownership and weak minority investor protection. Specifically, these papers describe RPTs and examine (i) the association between RPTs and state ownership, (ii) the association between the cost of corporate debt and RPTs, and the moderating role of state ownership on the association between the cost of debt and RPTs, and (iii) the (...)
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  43. Micro-credit NGOs and Strategic Trust: An Odd Couple?Kazi A. S. M. Nurul Huda - 2021 - Business Ethics, the Environment and Responsibility 30 (3):360-377.
    This study contributes to the micro-credit literature by addressing the lack of philosophical dialogue concerning the issue of trust between micro-credit NGOs and rural poor women. The study demonstrates that one of the root causes of NGOs’ contested roles in Bangladesh is the norm that they use (i.e., trust) to rationalize their micro-credit activities. I argue that Bangladeshi micro-credit NGOs’ trust in poor village women is not genuine because they resort to group responsibility sustained through aggressive (...)
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  44. Experimental Modeling in Biology: In Vivo Representation and Stand-ins As Modeling Strategies.Marcel Weber - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (5):756-769.
    Experimental modeling in biology involves the use of living organisms (not necessarily so-called "model organisms") in order to model or simulate biological processes. I argue here that experimental modeling is a bona fide form of scientific modeling that plays an epistemic role that is distinct from that of ordinary biological experiments. What distinguishes them from ordinary experiments is that they use what I call "in vivo representations" where one kind of causal process is used to stand in (...)
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  45. Optimality modeling in a suboptimal world.Angela Potochnik - 2009 - Biology and Philosophy 24 (2):183-197.
    The fate of optimality modeling is typically linked to that of adaptationism: the two are thought to stand or fall together (Gould and Lewontin, Proc Relig Soc Lond 205:581–598, 1979; Orzack and Sober, Am Nat 143(3):361–380, 1994). I argue here that this is mistaken. The debate over adaptationism has tended to focus on one particular use of optimality models, which I refer to here as their strong use. The strong use of an optimality model involves the claim that selection (...)
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  46. Causal Modeling Semantics for Counterfactuals with Disjunctive Antecedents.Giuliano Rosella & Jan Sprenger - manuscript
    This paper applies Causal Modeling Semantics (CMS, e.g., Galles and Pearl 1998; Pearl 2000; Halpern 2000) to the evaluation of the probability of counterfactuals with disjunctive antecedents. Standard CMS is limited to evaluating (the probability of) counterfactuals whose antecedent is a conjunction of atomic formulas. We extend this framework to disjunctive antecedents, and more generally, to any Boolean combinations of atomic formulas. Our main idea is to assign a probability to a counterfactual ( A ∨ B ) > C (...)
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  47. Credit Default Swaps, Contract Theory, Public Debt, and Fiat Money Regimes: Comment on Polleit and Mariano.Xavier Mera - 2013 - Libertarian Papers 5:217-239.
    In this paper, I show that Polleit and Mariano (2011) are right in concluding that Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are per se unobjectionable from Rothbard’s libertarian perspective on property rights and contract theory, but that they fail to derive this conclusion properly. I therefore outline the proper explanation. In addition, though Polleit and Mariano are correct in pointing out that speculation with CDS can conceivably hurt the borrowers’ interests, they fail to grasp that this can be the case only (...)
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  48. Modeling Truth.Paul Teller - manuscript
    Many in philosophy understand truth in terms of precise semantic values, true propositions. Following Braun and Sider, I say that in this sense almost nothing we say is, literally, true. I take the stand that this account of truth nonetheless constitutes a vitally useful idealization in understanding many features of the structure of language. The Fregean problem discussed by Braun and Sider concerns issues about application of language to the world. In understanding these issues I propose an alternative modeling (...)
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  49. Risk aversion and the long run.Johanna Thoma - 2019 - Ethics 129 (2):230-253.
    This article argues that Lara Buchak’s risk-weighted expected utility theory fails to offer a true alternative to expected utility theory. Under commonly held assumptions about dynamic choice and the framing of decision problems, rational agents are guided by their attitudes to temporally extended courses of action. If so, REU theory makes approximately the same recommendations as expected utility theory. Being more permissive about dynamic choice or framing, however, undermines the theory’s claim to capturing a steady choice disposition in the (...)
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  50. Is risk aversion irrational? Examining the “fallacy” of large numbers.H. Orri Stefánsson - 2020 - Synthese 197 (10):4425-4437.
    A moderately risk averse person may turn down a 50/50 gamble that either results in her winning $200 or losing $100. Such behaviour seems rational if, for instance, the pain of losing $100 is felt more strongly than the joy of winning $200. The aim of this paper is to examine an influential argument that some have interpreted as showing that such moderate risk aversion is irrational. After presenting an axiomatic argument that I take to be the strongest (...)
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