Data on RDocumentation (CRAN) shows that the bayesvl R package had an exceptionally high number of downloads in January 2024 compared to December 2023, with an increase of 164%. This excitement motivated me to investigate the extent of bayesvl’s spread further, leading to the discovery of two interesting pieces of information.

Five years ago, on May 24, 2019, the computer program ‘bayesvl’ was officially published on R under the name “bayesvl: Visually Learning the Graphical Structure of Bayesian Networks and Performing MCMC with ‘Stan’”. This program (or package) was developed by two founders of the SM3D Portal, Vuong Quan Hoang and La Viet Phuong, to improve the productivity of conducting social research. The package was designed with a pedagogical orientation, supporting users in familiarizing themselves with Bayesian statistical (...) methods, MCMC simulation, and visualization of technical diagnoses and results. (shrink)

Compared with traditional statistics, only a few social scientists employ Bayesian analyses. The existing software programs for implementing Bayesian analyses such as OpenBUGS, WinBUGS, JAGS, and rstanarm can be daunting given that their complex computer codes involve a steep learning curve. In contrast, this paper introduces a new open software for implementing Bayesian network modelling and analysis: the bayesvl R package. The package aims at providing an intuitive gateway for beginners of Bayesian statistics to construct and analyse (...) mathematical models in social sciences... (shrink)

The exponential growth of social data both in volume and complexity has increasingly exposed many of the shortcomings of the conventional frequentist approach to statistics. The scientific community has called for careful usage of the approach and its inference. Meanwhile, the alternative method, Bayesian statistics, still faces considerable barriers toward a more widespread application. The bayesvl R package is an open program, designed for implementing Bayesian modeling and analysis using the Stan language’s no-U-turn (NUTS) sampler. The package (...) combines the ability to construct Bayesian network models using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique, and the graphic capability of the ggplot2 package. As a result, it can improve the user experience and intuitive understanding when constructing and analyzing Bayesian network models. A case example is offered to illustrate the usefulness of the package for Big Data analytics and cognitive computing. (shrink)

La, V. P., & Vuong, Q. H. (2019). bayesvl: Visually learning the graphical structure of Bayesian networks and performing MCMC with ‘Stan’. The Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

According to data provided by CRAN, in November 2023, the number of downloads of the bayesvl program reached 293, showing an increase of +57.5% compared to the previous month.

An untold aspect of the inexpensiveness of bayesvl was that its developers also ate very little, mostly vegetables.

Well, well, well! Hold onto your hats, folks, because we’ve got some thrilling news from the world of computer downloads! In the wacky world of statistics and software, where numbers have all the fun, here’s a thing: In September 2023, the number of downloads for the bayesvl program by AISDL suddenly increased to 241! But there’s more to the sheer number; it’s 24.9% higher than the previous month’s total of 193. And in case you’re wondering, 241 is nearly as (...) cool as the 246 we saw back in May 2023, when the number started dwindling. It’s like déjà vu. (shrink)

Trong lượt cập nhật gần nhất, dữ liệu CRAN cho biết, trong tháng 9-2023, tổng số lượt downloads của chương trình bayesvl của AISDL (chạy trên R và Stan [1]) đạt 241, tăng +24,9% so với tháng trước (193), và tương đương thống kê của tháng 5-2023 (246).

Như vậy, tổng lượng downloads của bayesvl bản 0.8.5 từ các servers CRAN giai đoạn tháng 7-2021 tới tháng 6-2023 đạt 7930. (Số thống kê này không bao gồm lượng downloads từ Github, như đã nêu trên.).

In the first month of 2024, there was a significant increase in the number of downloads for the Bayesian stats / MCMC computing program, bayesvl, developed by AISDL running on R and Stan. The following RDocumentation (CRAN) graph illustrates the noticeable leap in data for January 2024.

Từ thực tế dữ liệu, có thể thấy nếu như mức độ quan tâm ứng dụng thực sự của BMF analytics cho công việc trở nên phổ biến, thì khả năng bayesvl sẽ được tải về và sử dụng sẽ có nhiều cơ hội để cải thiện.

Kết quả công việc đã được cải thiện một phần đáng kể nhờ sự trợ giúp của bayesvl.

The methodology title on BMF analytics is now in its third year of service to our research community, enabling many researchers to implement their research pursuits. We recently stumbled upon its listing on the Harvard University Library HOLLIS system. Its appearance at the Harvard University HOLLIS helps boost our confidence and strengthen our determination to bring its uses to the community, together with the computing capabilities of the bayesvl R package.

TS. Nguyễn Minh Hoàng (ĐH Phenikaa), đã giảng bài về tiếp cận tính toán sử dụng bayesvl và ứng dụng BMF cho công việc nghiên cứu KHXH.

As of January 20, 2024, we recorded 168 documents (including articles, books, proceedings, and lectures) that have used Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics/Mindsponge Theory (MT) substantively. This number has increased by 31.25% since the previous record on July 9, 2023. The documents have been authored or co-authored by 330 researchers from 215 institutions in 38 countries, of which 67% come from developing/emerging countries. Among 330 users, 32 are registered members of the SM3D Portal.

Academia is a competitive environment. Early Career Researchers (ECRs) are limited in experience and resources and especially need achievements to secure and expand their careers. To help with these issues, this book offers a new approach for conducting research using the combination of mindsponge innovative thinking and Bayesian analytics. This is not just another analytics book. 1. A new perspective on psychological processes: Mindsponge is a novel approach for examining the human mind’s information processing mechanism. This conceptual framework is used (...) to construct models in studies. The framework is highly flexible and widely applicable for many different types of information processes. The mindsponge approach can help researchers discover interesting ideas or even formulate their very own theories when investigating psychosocial phenomena. This approach brings a fresh wind to the current landscape of social sciences and humanities (SSH). 2. Easy-to-follow analysis protocol: The Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF analytics) is useful in terms of computing and visualizing power but also easy to learn and apply. Contrary to being intimidating, the Bayesian analytics section of this book is presented in a reader-friendly manner with a detailed yet clear step-by-step procedure. Examples are from published BMF articles, allowing readers to immediately practice the method and quickly create their own applications. With educational purposes in mind, the book is very suitable for ECRs who are looking to innovate their research methods. 3. Advocating for low-cost, high-quality research: Doing science can be very costly. Mindsponge innovative thinking and BMF analytics help produce impactful studies using openly available data on online repositories. This is based on the authors’ previous works and experiences. The book presents examples of employing the open R package bayesvl on secondary data from different sources. With less financial constraints, researchers can have more freedom of thought to pursue their curiosity and creativity. ECRs in low- and middle-income countries may find this aspect crucial in their careers. 4. Support and collaboration: The authors share their insights from experiences in the academic publishing system to help readers get through the processes of manuscript writing and peer-reviewing more easily. The authors are also ready to support other researchers with further inquiries and collaboration opportunities at the following website, mindsponge(dot)info. This book is for: a) ECRs whose only abundant resources are their innovation capacity and strength of will; b) Researchers in SSH who want to explore a novel approach to thinking and study conducting; c) Low- and middle-income countries’ researchers looking for a cost-effective research protocol; and, d) Innovative thinkers who want to turn their interesting thoughts into good publications. (shrink)

(The Kindle book can be ordered for $3.21 from Amazon) -/- Thinking is a fundamental activity of our species – those that give names to other creatures and call themselves humans. Textbooks tell us that there is about 1.2 kg of matter called the brain inside the human body. It sounds small but actually is proportionally the biggest among all animals on Earth. -/- I became more aware of thinking at around 5th grade upon hearing about an ancient paradox. It (...) can be summarized as follows. -/- ¤ -/- Once upon a time, there was a stupid king. In his kingdom lived a sage who was highly respected for his intelligence. The King did not appreciate this fact. Maybe the Sage made fun of the King’s intellect, but I am not so sure. Anyway, one day, the King summoned the Sage, intending to kill him. -/- The King said, “Wise man, I heard you earn a living by thinking and arguing. Now I give you two options to die.” -/- The Sage said, “Please tell me the choices, Your Majesty.” -/- The King continued, “You live by your tongue, so I will let you say one sentence before you die. If what you say is true, you will die by hanging. If what you say is false, you will die by beheading.” -/- Little did the King know that this was a stupid order. After a short while, the Sage confidently spoke his “last words”, which actually were what saved his life: -/- “Your Majesty, I am about to be beheaded!” -/- ¤ -/- As a “wild animal” going out into life from a young age, my brain spent a lot of time and energy looking for food. Now that I have become older, my body no longer needs so much sustenance. However, my mind craves a different type of nourishment: food for thought. -/- Food for thought can directly lead to food (on the table). My main job as a scientist exemplifies what I have just stated. Maybe we were wrong. Maybe it has been “thought for food” all along, like in such a sequence as TFFTTTFTFFTTFFFT... -/- In the hyper-chaotic infosphere today, we are surrounded by the noises of information, not only as wavy shores or waterfalls but also mega-tsunamis, through Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, Instagram, Youtube, etc. More than ever, tranquility and calmness are necessary. Like what you have seen in wilderness video clips, predators such as lions, bears, and alligators act lightning-fast when catching prey. But when food is served, the natural world returns to its peaceful, soothing silence. -/- This short book is in its own tidy infosphere, where each little story is also brief and self-contained. Despite this small appearance, I hope the content inside carries the value of tranquility and life observation. The book is petite, but pretty sure not malnourished. A not-too-small detail is that the way the content was shaped and distilled reflects some innovations of mine and my research team: the mindsponge theory, a new theory of serendipity, the bayesvl R package, the BMF analytics, as well as other experiences from working in the field of science. After all, scientific works were my main source of food (before this book sells well – if it does). -/- Welcome to the priceless sober moments – with a chicken-burger price tag! -/- I hope this book will bring readers some moments of calmness, peaceful smiles, and maybe a couple of good laughs too. -/- ~~~ -/- *This update: December 12, 2023 (Third edition, with additions). (shrink)

This research employs the Bayesian network modeling approach, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, to learn about the role of lies and violence in teachings of major religions, using a unique dataset extracted from long-standing Vietnamese folktales. The results indicate that, although lying and violent acts augur negative consequences for those who commit them, their associations with core religious values diverge in the final outcome for the folktale characters. Lying that serves a religious mission of either Confucianism or Taoism (...) (but not Buddhism) brings a positive outcome to a character (βT_and_Lie_O= 2.23; βC_and_Lie_O= 1.47; βT_and_Lie_O= 2.23). A violent act committed to serving Buddhist missions results in a happy ending for the committer (βB_and_Viol_O= 2.55). What is highlighted here is a glaring double standard in the interpretation and practice of the three teachings: the very virtuous outcomes being preached, whether that be compassion and meditation in Buddhism, societal order in Confucianism, or natural harmony in Taoism, appear to accommodate two universal vices—violence in Buddhism and lying in the latter two. These findings contribute to a host of studies aimed at making sense of contradictory human behaviors, adding the role of religious teachings in addition to cognition in belief maintenance and motivated reasoning in discounting counterargument. (shrink)

Working in academia is challenging, even more so for those with limited resources and opportunities. Researchers around the world do not have equal working conditions. The paper presents the structure, operation method, and conceptual framework of the SM3D Portal's community coaching method, which is built to help Early Career Researchers (ECRs) and researchers in low-resource settings overcome the obstacle of inequality and start their career progress. The community coaching method is envisioned by three science philosophies (cost-effectiveness, transparency spirit, and proactive (...) attitude) and established and operated based on the Serendipity-Mindsponge-3D knowledge (SM3D) management framework (i.e., mindsponge thinking and Bayesian Mindsponge Framework analytics serve as the coaching program's foundational theory and analytical tools). The coaching method also embraces Open Science's values for lowering the cost of doing science and encouraging the trainees to be transparent, which is expected to facilitate the self-correcting mechanism of science through open data, open review, and open dialogue. Throughout the training process, members are central beneficiaries by gaining research knowledge and skills, acquiring publication as the training's product, and shifting their mindsets from “I can't do it” to “I can do it,” and at the same time transforming a mentee to be ready for a future mentor's role. The coaching method is thus one of the members, for the member, by the members. -/- • The paper provides the structure, operation method, and conceptual framework of the SM3D Portal's community coaching method, which is built to help Early Career Researchers (ECRs) and researchers in low-resource settings overcome the obstacle of inequality and start their career progress. • The paper presents three major science philosophies envisioning the establishment and operation of scholarly community coaching. • The paper employs the mindsponge theory and BMF analytics to construct a conceptual framework explaining how an environment is created to help shift members’ mindsets from “I can't do it” to “I can do it.”. (shrink)

Acknowledging that many members of the SM3D Portal need reference documents related to Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics to conduct research projects effectively, we present the essential materials and most up-to-date studies employing the method in this post. By summarizing all the publications and preprints associated with BMF analytics, we also aim to help researchers reduce the time and effort for information seeking, enhance proactive self-learning, and facilitate knowledge exchange and community dialogue through transparency.

Being a researcher is challenging, especially in the beginning. Early Career Researchers (ECRs) need achievements to secure and expand their careers. In today’s academic landscape, researchers are under many pressures: data collection costs, the expectation of novelty, analytical skill requirements, lengthy publishing process, and the overall competitiveness of the career. Innovative thinking and the ability to turn good ideas into good papers are the keys to success.

Some properties – like charge – are natural, some – like grue are unnatural. The distinction between natural and unnatural properties is normally taken as primitive. However, Barry Loewer’s Package Deal Account (PDA) aims to provide an reductive account of natural properties, integrated with a reductive account of laws of nature. In addition, the account seems to be able to apply to natural properties at the level of fundamental physics, and higher-level, special science, properties. -/- If the account is (...) successful, then, it looks to be incredibly powerful and attractive. The PDA, however, is somewhat underexplored in the literature. So the first aim of the paper is to understand the PDA better -- to map the connections between naturalness and laws on the traditional BSA and to consider how those connections have to adapted in order to develop different versions of the PDA. -/- The second aim is to start to evaluate different versions of the PDA. In particular, perhaps the most promising version of the PDA construes it as an instance of a larger approach to Humeanism — one that has been very visible in the recent literature — that focuses on the role of 'ideal observers' or 'ideal scientists'. While such an approach might be feasible, I claim, it gets its proponents much less than they were originally hoping for. (shrink)

Mới đây, chương trình máy tính ‘bayesvl’ chạy trên môi trường R do TS. Vương Quân Hoàng và kĩ sư Lã Việt Phương (Trung tâm Nghiên cứu Xã hội Liên ngành ISR, Đại học Phenikaa) thiết kế và phát triển chính thức được ra mắt trên CRAN - hệ thống thư viện chuẩn của R...

Work results have been significantly improved with the help of bayesvl.

The total number of downloads of bayesvl over the period with archived data (from July 2021 to July 2023) is 8133.

Cao điểm bayesvl chỉ có rau... -/- Người ta bẩu, ăn thịt/cá mới đủ protein để phục vụ suy nghĩ.

Nhân dịp khai giảng năm học 2023-24, nhóm nghiên cứu báo cáo thống kê số lần bayesvl tải về (downloads) từ The Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

Trưa ngày 1-1 năm mới, R Documentation cho biết mức downloads tạm tính của chương trình bayesvl trong tháng 12-2023. Hiện đang đứng ở mức 157, tháng thấp nhất trong năm.

Dữ liệu trên RDocumentation (CRAN) cho thấy phần mềm máy tính bayesvl có lượng download trong tháng 1/2024 cao vượt bậc so với tháng 12/2023, tăng 164%. Sự hào hứng này đã cho tôi động lực tiếp tục tìm hiểu mức độ lan tỏa của bayesvl. Nhờ thế nên tôi mới phát hiện ra 2 thông tin thú vị.

Tháng đầu năm 2024 chứng kiến mức tăng rất đáng kể số lượt download chương trình máy tính bayesvl của AISDL chạy trên R và Stan. Đồ thị của RDocumentation (CRAN) dưới đây cho thấy hình ảnh bước nhảy khi có dữ liệu của tháng 1-2024.

The emergence of a populist model in politics. The direct appeal to popular support, to the power of action and the vote without political projects, ideologies or institutional and party structures. The postmodern condottiero addresses himself directly to the masses of individuals who feel a special loyalty to him, to her, and a historical responsibility to show active support. Farewell, then, to the ideological debate on the shaping of institutional power and its guarantees of rights, welcome to a new principle (...) of leadership. In the face of this thinking, the tradition of modernity and the Enlightenment, the public square as a meeting place for equals to debate, to reveal their own freedom and that of others, is rethought. Modernity does not promise freedom, but constitutes it. (shrink)

Governments are often so focused on short-term gains that they ignore the long term, thus creating extra unnecessary burdens on their citizens, and violating their responsibilities to future generations. What can be done about this? In this paper I propose a package of reforms to the ways in which policies are made by legislatures, and in which those policies are scrutinised, implemented and evaluated. The overarching aim is to enhance the accountability of the decision-making process in ways that take (...) into account the interests of persons in the future. (shrink)

Some philosophers of science – the present author included – appeal to fiction as an interpretation of the practice of modeling. This raises the specter of an incompatibility with realism, since fiction-making is essentially non-truth-regulated. I argue that the prima facie conflict can be resolved in two ways, each involving a distinct notion of fiction and a corresponding formulation of realism. The main goal of the paper is to describe these two packages. Toward the end I comment on how to (...) choose among them. (shrink)

For most of their respective existences, reliabilism and evidentialism (that is, process reliabilism and mentalist evidentialism) have been rivals. They are generally viewed as incompatible, even antithetical, theories of justification.1 But a few people are beginning to re-think this notion. Perhaps an ideal theory would be a hybrid of the two, combining the best elements of each theory. Juan Comesana (forthcoming) takes this point of view and constructs a position called “Evidentialist Reliabilism.” He tries to show how each theory can (...) profit by borrowing elements from the other. Comesana concentrates on reliabilism’s problems and how it might be improved by infusions from evidentialism. This paper follows a similar tack. My emphasis, however, is the reverse of Comesana’s. I highlight problems for evidentialism and show how it could benefit by incorporating reliabilist themes. I am not sanguine that evidentialists will see it my way. They might even view my proposals as an insidious attempt to convert evidentialists to reliabilism. Well, I won’t debate the best way to formulate this paper’s recipe. At any rate, it began with the idea (which anteceded my reading of Comesana) of creating a synthesis of reliabilism and evidentialism. It retains significant strands of that idea, although the synthesis theme does not pervade the entire paper. What is mentalist evidentialism? Its original formulation was succinct. (shrink)

In this article I maintain that a progressive and leftist carbon tax should be revenue-neutral through a dual policy package: first, it should use some revenues to offset price increases for the poor and middle classes; second, it should use the remaining part of revenues to lower taxes on labour income (both employed and self-employed income) for those below a middle-income threshold. I will briefly examine three reasons why such a revenue-neutral and dual-package carbon tax (RN-DP-CT) could (and (...) should) become central in the political agenda of the European Left – even though much of what I will suggest can reasonably hold also with respect to other countries. First, the tax wage on labour in the euro area is one of the highest in the world. Second, the revenue-neutral and dual policy package carbon tax will tax more capital that yields income without a proportional increase in labour demand, rather than capital that creates new job opportunities. Third, we live in societies that are highly unequal, hence I see no moral reason why a carbon tax reform should not aim, among other things, to take wealth away from the richest. (shrink)

Con số vượt qua mốc 8000 cũng phần nào cho thấy bayesvl thu hút được một lượng quan tâm nhất định của giới nghiên cứu.

Throughout Peirce’s writing, we witness his developing vision of a machine that scientists will eventually be able to create. Nadin (2010) raised the question:Why do computer scientists continue to ignore Peirce’s sign theory? A review of the literature on Peirce’s theory and the semiotics machine reveals that many authors discussed the machine;however, they donot differentiate between a physical computer machine and its software. This paper discusses the problematic issues involved in converting Peirce’s theory into a programming language, machine and software (...) application. We demonstrate this challenge by introducing Peirce’s sign theory as a software application that runs under an open-source R environment. (shrink)

On November 3 and 4, 2023, Dr. Nguyen Minh Hoang (Phenikaa University), co-author of the BMF Analytics [1], gave a lecture on computational approaches using bayesvl and BMF application for social science research.

Chương trình bayesvl được thiết kế với định hướng sư phạm, hỗ trợ các nhà nghiên cứu ngành khoa học xã hội và nhân văn sử dụng mô hình lưới Bayesian, mô phỏng MCMC, hình ảnh hóa các thông số kĩ thuật và phân tích dữ liệu xã hội. bayesvl được phát hành chính thức trên hệ thống thư viện chuẩn của R là Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) vào tháng 5 năm 2019.

What can rational deliberation indicate about belief? Belief clearly influences deliberation. The principle that rational belief is stake-invariant rules out at least one way that deliberation might influence belief. The principle is widely, if implicitly, held in work on the epistemology of categorical belief, and it is built into the model of choice-guiding degrees of belief that comes to us from Ramsey and de Finetti. Criticisms of subjective probabilism include challenges to the assumption of additive values (the package principle) (...) employed by defenses of probabilism. But the value-interaction phenomena often cited in such challenges are excluded by stake-invariance. A comparison with treatments of categorical belief suggests that the appeal to stake-invariance is not ad hoc. Whether or not to model belief as stake-invariant is a question not settled here. (shrink)

Chỉ còn một vài ngày nữa cả nước ta sẽ đón chào ngày lễ Quốc tế Lao động 1/5. Sẽ thật ý nghĩa khi ta kiểm đếm và nhìn lại các tác động và giá trị của thành quả lao động trước đây, để từ đó tạo động lực cùng hướng tới tương lai hăng say lao động.

We aim to support researchers in social sciences and humanities in conducting and publishing their studies on a global scale, especially Early Career Researchers (ECRs) and those in low-resource settings. For that purpose, AISDL created the Science Portal for the Serendipity-Mindsponge-3D (SM3D) Knowledge Management Theory.

The methodology title on BMF analytics is now in its third year of service to our research community, enabling many researchers to implement their research pursuits.

Bài mới xuất bản vào ngày 19-5-2020 với tác giả liên lạc là NCS Nguyễn Minh Hoàng, cán bộ nghiên cứu của Trung tâm ISR, trình bày tiếp cận thống kê Bayesian cho việc nghiên cứu dữ liệu khoa học xã hội. Đây là kết quả của định hướng Nhóm nghiên cứu SDAG được nêu rõ ngay từ ngày 18-5-2019.

Let serious propositional contingentism (SPC) be the package of views which consists in (i) the thesis that propositions expressed by sentences featuring terms depend, for their existence, on the existence of the referents of those terms, (ii) serious actualism—the view that it is impossible for an object to exemplify a property and not exist—and (iii) contingentism—the view that it is at least possible that some thing might not have been something. SPC is popular and compelling. But what should we (...) say about possible worlds, if we accept SPC? Here, I first show that a natural view of possible worlds, well-represented in the literature, in conjunction with SPC is inadequate. Though I note various alternative ways of thinking about possible worlds in response to the first problem, I then outline a second more general problem—a master argument—which generally shows that any account of possible worlds meeting very minimal requirements will be inconsistent with compelling claims about mere possibilia which the serious propositional contingentist should accept. (shrink)

I argue that the best scientific package is anti-Humean in its ontology, but Humean in its laws. This is because potencies and the best system account of laws complement each other surprisingly well. If there are potencies, then the BSA is the most plausible account of the laws of nature. Conversely, if the BSA is the correct theory of laws, then formulating the laws in terms of potencies rather than categorical properties avoids three serious objections: the mismatch objection, the (...) impoverished worlds objection, and the metaphysical 'oomph' objection. I argue that combining anti-Humean properties with Humean laws into a Potency-Best System Account of Laws is a powerful and science-friendly account---something that people on both sides should be able to appreciate. (shrink)

Cuốn tài liệu học thuật trình bày phương pháp “BMF analytics” hiện đã bước sang năm thứ ba phục vụ cộng đồng nghiên cứu. Cuốn sách đã góp phần hỗ trợ nhiều nhà nghiên cứu trẻ triển khai và hoàn thành công việc.