When evidence-based policymaking is so often mired in disagreement and controversy, how can we know if the process is meeting its stated goals? We develop a novel mathematical model to study disagreements about adequate knowledge utilization, like those regarding wild horse culling, shark drumlines and facemask policies during pandemics. We find that, when stakeholders disagree, it is frequently impossible to tell whether any party is at fault. We demonstrate the need for a distinctive kind of transparency in evidence-based policymaking, which (...) we call transparency of reasoning. Such transparency is critical to the success of the evidence-based policy movement, as without it, we will be unable to tell whether in any instance a policy was in fact based on evidence. (shrink)

The inflation of Type I error rates is thought to be one of the causes of the replication crisis. Questionable research practices such as p-hacking are thought to inflate Type I error rates above their nominal level, leading to unexpectedly high levels of false positives in the literature and, consequently, unexpectedly low replication rates. In this article, I offer an alternative view. I argue that questionable and other research practices do not usually inflate relevant Type I error rates. I begin (...) by introducing the concept of Type I error rates and distinguishing between statistical errors and theoretical errors. I then illustrate my argument with respect to model misspecification, multiple testing, selective inference, forking paths, exploratory analyses, p-hacking, optional stopping, double dipping, and HARKing. In each case, I demonstrate that relevant Type I error rates are not usually inflated above their nominal level, and in the rare cases that they are, the inflation is easily identified and resolved. I conclude that the replication crisis may be explained, at least in part, by researchers’ misinterpretation of statistical errors and their underestimation of theoretical errors. (shrink)

Kerr coined the term ‘HARKing’ to refer to the practice of ‘hypothesizing after the results are known’. This questionable research practice has received increased attention in recent years because it is thought to have contributed to low replication rates in science. The present article discusses the concept of HARKing from a philosophical standpoint and then undertakes a critical review of Kerr’s twelve potential costs of HARKing. It is argued that these potential costs are either misconceived, misattributed to HARKing, lacking evidence, (...) or that they do not take into account pre- and post-publication peer review and public availability to research materials and data. It is concluded that it is premature to conclude that HARKing has led to low replication rates. (shrink)

The replication crisis has caused researchers to distinguish between exact replications, which duplicate all aspects of a study that could potentially affect the results, and direct replications, which duplicate only those aspects of the study that are thought to be theoretically essential to reproduce the original effect. The replication crisis has also prompted researchers to think more carefully about the possibility of making Type I errors when rejecting null hypotheses. In this context, the present article considers the utility of two (...) types of Type I error probability: the Neyman–Pearson long run Type I error rate and the Fisherian sample-specific Type I error probability. It is argued that the Neyman–Pearson Type I error rate is inapplicable in social science because it refers to a long run of exact replications, and social science deals with irreversible units that make exact replications impossible. Instead, the Fisherian sample-specific Type I error probability is recommended as a more meaningful way to conceptualize false positive results in social science because it can be applied to each sample-specific decision about rejecting the same substantive null hypothesis in a series of direct replications. It is concluded that the replication crisis may be partly due to researchers’ unrealistic expectations about replicability based on their consideration of the Neyman–Pearson Type I error rate across a long run of exact replications. (shrink)

During multiple testing, researchers often adjust their alpha level to control the familywise error rate for a statistical inference about a joint union alternative hypothesis (e.g., “H1,1 or H1,2”). However, in some cases, they do not make this inference. Instead, they make separate inferences about each of the individual hypotheses that comprise the joint hypothesis (e.g., H1,1 and H1,2). For example, a researcher might use a Bonferroni correction to adjust their alpha level from the conventional level of 0.050 to 0.025 (...) when testing H1,1 and H1,2, find a significant result for H1,1 (p < 0.025) and not for H1,2 (p > .0.025), and so claim support for H1,1 and not for H1,2. However, these separate individual inferences do not require an alpha adjustment. Only a statistical inference about the union alternative hypothesis “H1,1 or H1,2” requires an alpha adjustment because it is based on “at least one” significant result among the two tests, and so it refers to the familywise error rate. Hence, an inconsistent correction occurs when a researcher corrects their alpha level during multiple testing but does not make an inference about a union alternative hypothesis. In the present article, I discuss this inconsistent correction problem, including its reduction in statistical power for tests of individual hypotheses and its potential causes vis-à-vis error rate confusions and the alpha adjustment ritual. I also provide three illustrations of inconsistent corrections from recent psychology studies. I conclude that inconsistent corrections represent a symptom of statisticism, and I call for a more nuanced inference-based approach to multiple testing corrections. (shrink)

One justification for preregistering research hypotheses, methods, and analyses is that it improves the transparent evaluation of the severity of hypothesis tests. In this article, I consider two cases in which preregistration does not improve this evaluation. First, I argue that, although preregistration can facilitate the transparent evaluation of severity in Mayo’s error statistical philosophy of science, it does not facilitate this evaluation in Popper’s theory-centric approach. To illustrate, I show that associated concerns about Type I error rate inflation are (...) only relevant in the error statistical approach and not in a theory-centric approach. Second, I argue that a preregistered test procedure that allows deviations in its implementation does not provide a more transparent evaluation of Mayoian severity than a non-preregistered procedure. In particular, I argue that sample-based validity-enhancing deviations cause an unknown inflation of the test procedure’s Type I (familywise) error rate and, consequently, an unknown reduction in its capability to license inferences severely. I conclude that preregistration does not improve the transparent evaluation of severity in Popper’s philosophy of science or when deviations are allowed. (shrink)

Scientists often adjust their significance threshold during null hypothesis significance testing in order to take into account multiple testing and multiple comparisons. This alpha adjustment has become particularly relevant in the context of the replication crisis in science. The present article considers the conditions in which this alpha adjustment is appropriate and the conditions in which it is inappropriate. A distinction is drawn between three types of multiple testing: disjunction testing, conjunction testing, and individual testing. It is argued that alpha (...) adjustment is only appropriate in the case of disjunction testing, in which at least one test result must be significant in order to reject the associated joint null hypothesis. Alpha adjustment is inappropriate in the case of conjunction testing, in which all relevant results must be significant in order to reject the joint null hypothesis. Alpha adjustment is also inappropriate in the case of individual testing, in which each individual result must be significant in order to reject each associated individual null hypothesis. The conditions under which each of these three types of multiple testing is warranted are examined. It is concluded that researchers should not automatically assume that alpha adjustment is necessary during multiple testing. Illustrations are provided in relation to joint studywise hypotheses and joint multiway ANOVAwise hypotheses. (shrink)

Several researchers have recently argued that p values lose their meaning in exploratory analyses due to an unknown inflation of the alpha level (e.g., Nosek & Lakens, 2014; Wagenmakers, 2016). For this argument to be tenable, the familywise error rate must be defined in relation to the number of hypotheses that are tested in the same study or article. Under this conceptualization, the familywise error rate is usually unknowable in exploratory analyses because it is usually unclear how many hypotheses have (...) been tested on a spontaneous basis and then omitted from the final research report. In the present article, I argue that it is inappropriate to conceptualize the familywise error rate in relation to the number of hypotheses that are tested. Instead, it is more appropriate to conceptualize familywise error in relation to the number of different tests that are conducted on the same null hypothesis in the same study. Under this conceptualization, alpha level adjustments in exploratory analyses are (a) less necessary and (b) objectively verifiable. As a result, p values do not lose their meaning in exploratory analyses. (shrink)

Preregistration has been proposed as a useful method for making a publicly verifiable distinction between confirmatory hypothesis tests, which involve planned tests of ante hoc hypotheses, and exploratory hypothesis tests, which involve unplanned tests of post hoc hypotheses. This distinction is thought to be important because it has been proposed that confirmatory hypothesis tests provide more compelling results (less uncertain, less tentative, less open to bias) than exploratory hypothesis tests. In this article, we challenge this proposition and argue that there (...) are several advantages of exploratory hypothesis tests that can make their results more compelling than those of confirmatory hypothesis tests. We also consider some potential disadvantages of exploratory hypothesis tests and conclude that their advantages can outweigh the disadvantages. We conclude that exploratory hypothesis tests avoid researcher commitment and researcher prophecy biases, reduce the probability of data fraud, are more appropriate in the context of unplanned deviations, facilitate inference to the best explanation, and allow peer reviewers to make additional contributions at the data analysis stage. In contrast, confirmatory hypothesis tests may lead to an inappropriate level of confidence in research conclusions, less appropriate analyses in the context of unplanned deviations, and greater bias and errors in theoretical inferences. (shrink)

Fisher criticised the Neyman-Pearson approach to hypothesis testing by arguing that it relies on the assumption of “repeated sampling from the same population.” The present article considers the responses to this criticism provided by Pearson and Neyman. Pearson interpreted alpha levels in relation to imaginary replications of the original test. This interpretation is appropriate when test users are sure that their replications will be equivalent to one another. However, by definition, scientific researchers do not possess sufficient knowledge about the relevant (...) and irrelevant aspects of their tests and populations to be sure that their replications will be equivalent to one another. Pearson also interpreted the alpha level as a personal rule that guides researchers’ behavior during hypothesis testing. However, this interpretation fails to acknowledge that the same researcher may use different alpha levels in different testing situations. Addressing this problem, Neyman proposed that the average alpha level adopted by a particular researcher can be viewed as an indicator of that researcher’s typical Type I error rate. Researchers’ average alpha levels may be informative from a metascientific perspective. However, they are not useful from a scientific perspective. Scientists are more concerned with the error rates of specific tests of specific hypotheses, rather than the error rates of their colleagues. It is concluded that neither Neyman nor Pearson adequately rebutted Fisher’s “repeated sampling” criticism. Fisher’s significance testing approach is briefly considered as an alternative to the Neyman-Pearson approach. (shrink)

Hypothesizing after the results are known, or HARKing, occurs when researchers check their research results and then add or remove hypotheses on the basis of those results without acknowledging this process in their research report (Kerr, 1998). In the present article, I discuss three forms of HARKing: (1) using current results to construct post hoc hypotheses that are then reported as if they were a priori hypotheses; (2) retrieving hypotheses from a post hoc literature search and reporting them as a (...) priori hypotheses; and (3) failing to report a priori hypotheses that are unsupported by the current results. These three types of HARKing are often characterized as being bad for science and a potential cause of the current replication crisis. In the present article, I use insights from the philosophy of science to present a more nuanced view. Specifically, I identify the conditions under which each of these three types of HARKing is most and least likely to be bad for science. I conclude with a brief discussion about the ethics of each type of HARKing. (shrink)

Habermas frequentemente adota o termo Estado de direito na sua obra Direito e democracia: entre facticidade e validade. O objetivo deste artigo, então, consiste na investigação da possibilidade desse conceito, no seu fundamento e na apresentação dos problemas dele decorrentes, contrapondo-o especificamente a sua antítese, isto é, ao monismo entre Estado e direito de Kelsen. Ocorre que a filosofia habermasiana, conforme entendimento do artigo, implica a adoção de uma teoria dualista entre os conceitos de Estado e de direito. Observa-se, assim, (...) o compromisso do filósofo alemão com a reformulação de uma doutrina jurídica específica e sua radical incompatibilidade com o positivismo kelseniano. (shrink)

Pretendeu-se estudar a aquisição da virtude em Aristóteles a partir da interpretação de M. F. Burnyeat. Para esse, a virtude aristotélica exige dimensões cognitivas e emocionais, sendo que ao aprendiz não basta conhecer os princípios e as regras gerais da ação, mas deve ter internalizado, através do hábito, uma vontade de praticar ações nobres e justas. Compete ao sujeito virtuoso, portanto, ter o conhecimento do que é correto (the that), assim como, subsidiariamente, a justificativa do porquê é apropriada determinada ação (...) (the because). Da análise dessas variáveis, o autor procura esclarecer a figura conflituosa do akratic (incontinente) e do akalastos (perverso) e elucidar a hipótese do desenvolvimento moral. Concomitantemente este artigo pretende introduzir o problema criminológico da ideia de ressocialização ou da pena capital, entendendo ser o argumento aristotélico ainda influente para a filosofia da virtude e jurídica hodierna e necessário quando se discutem novos paradigmas éticos e jurídicos. (shrink)

O artigo analisa a leitura crítica de Hans Kelsen acerca da concepção jurídico-política de Thomas Hobbes, considerando críticas posteriores à própria interpretação de Kelsen. Para tanto, investigou-se primeiramente a posição de Kelsen sobre o jusnaturalismo buscando esclarecer conceitos centrais como os do ser e dever-ser e como o autor os associa a Hobbes. Nesse sentido, observouse a limitação da leitura de Kelsen em relação à filosofia jurídica do autor – uma doutrina jusnaturalista metafísica, tendo na regra de ouro o fundamento (...) natural para o direito positivo. Em contraposição, procurou-se apresentar uma postura crítica, que contesta a posição jusnaturalista atribuída a Hobbes e sustenta a tese de que o autor inglês é um precursor do positivismo jurídico. (shrink)

O objetivo do artigofoi especular sobre a epistemologia proposta por David Hume (1711-1776), especificamente a perspectiva empirista e cética. Procurou-se, assim, expor os principais conceitos da sua filosofia, especialmente acrítica à concepção de causalidade, o problema da probabilidade e os conceitos de percepções, imagens e ideias. Finalmente buscou-se expor uma interpretação que entende haver um ceticismo mitigado no autor e a superação de uma teoria do conhecimento exclusivamente psicológica.

O presente artigo aborda o problema da soberania para Hans Kelsen. Tem como objetivo analisar a posição do autor sobre o tema (especialmente através do texto Sovereignty), traçando paralelamente algumas considerações. Ocorre que para Kelsen o conceito de soberania mostra-se impreciso a partir da doutrina tradicional. Ainda, mesmo superando essa doutrina e a teoria dualista, também o conteúdo do direito nacional e internacional permanece inalterado. Portanto, prova-se a irrelevância de tal para a teoria jurídica.

O artigo tem como objetivo apresentar o problema da determinação do sentido das normas para o Kelsen considerando a flexibilidade do quadro de interpretações. Expõe, primeiramente, a suposta transição do conceito de interpretação normativa, passando de um formalismo-normativismo restritivo para um realismo jurídico a partir das suas últimas obras; em um segundo momento apresenta o decorrente conflito ainda atual constituído por essas reformulações. Finalmente, defende a hipótese de superação da dicotomia formalismo-normativismo versus realismo jurídico através de uma leitura realista normativista.

O trabalho busca esclarecer dois pontos centrais da Filosofia política de Maquiavel – as figuras da Virtù e da Fortuna. A virtú deve ser vista como uma forma do livre-arbítrio do governante, sendo a principal variável na condução do principado.Destaca-se, também, a utilização da variável nacontestação aos valorestradicionais. Já a Fortuna constitui-se na indeterminabilidade de parte dos resultadosdo governo: ela deve ser dominada, conquistada para o benefício do príncipe.

Gelman and Loken (2013, 2014) proposed that when researchers base their statistical analyses on the idiosyncratic characteristics of a specific sample (e.g., a nonlinear transformation of a variable because it is skewed), they open up alternative analysis paths in potential replications of their study that are based on different samples (i.e., no transformation of the variable because it is not skewed). These alternative analysis paths count as additional (multiple) tests and, consequently, they increase the probability of making a Type I (...) error during hypothesis testing. The present article considers this forking paths problem and evaluates four potential solutions that might be used in psychology and other fields: (a) adjusting the prespecified alpha level, (b) preregistration, (c) sensitivity analyses, and (d) abandoning the Neyman-Pearson approach. It is concluded that although preregistration and sensitivity analyses are effective solutions to p-hacking, they are ineffective against result-neutral forking paths, such as those caused by transforming data. Conversely, although adjusting the alpha level cannot address p-hacking, it can be effective for result-neutral forking paths. Finally, abandoning the Neyman-Pearson approach represents a further solution to the forking paths problem. (shrink)

A separação entre o ser, isto é, o ato, e o dever-ser, ou seja, o sentido de comando, permissão etc.. do ato é parte fundamental para o entendimento da epistemologia proposta por Hans Kelsen. Dessa discriminação entre o ser e o dever-ser há o principal argumento do autor para a separação do direito das ciências causais e, principalmente, a superação da falácia naturalista no âmbito teórico e moral. Nesse sentido, também o artigo se propôs a analisar a refutação de Kelsen (...) a doutrinas morais e jurídicas negadoras de tal distinção e, consequentemente o reflexo de tal posicionamento na perspectiva da responsabilidade. (shrink)

Com este artigo procura-se introduzir a questão da origem social das normas morais e jurídicas a partir da obra de Hans Kelsen e solucionar, de forma breve, o problema da conciliação do método lógico-transcendental da Teoria pura com a filosofia positivista e empirista do autor.

O artigo investigou o método para uma filosofia intercultural a partir da Ibero-América, de Raul Fornet-Betancourt. Partiu-se especificamente do texto do autor para posteriormente fornecer considerações críticas aos seus posicionamentos. Nesse sentido, analisou-se a originalidade do tema, a filosofia da libertação como modelo de diálogo intercultural, seus pressupostos hermenêuticos e epistemológicos e, por fim, o pensamento ibero-americano como base para uma filosofia intercultural. No final do trabalho apresentou-se seis críticas ao texto estudado – o problema da arrogância e dissimulação filosófica, (...) a adoção tácita de um platonismo e a não originalidade filosófica, o problema da falácia naturalista e do falsificacionismo e, finalmente, a não razoabilidade política das propostas. (shrink)

O objetivo do trabalho é auxiliar o jurista desocupado responsável pelo ensino da cadeira de filosofia do direito. A situação mais frequente nas faculdades de direito são as aulas de filosofia e de outras cadeiras do eixo fundamental serem tapeadas por qualquer bacharel sem nada melhor para fazer. Ocorre que tais ociosos juristas muitas vezes se veem receosos quando instituídos nos seus cargos, isso porque não possuem qualquer conhecimento na matéria em que lecionam, ao mesmo tempo em que são lançados (...) em sala de aula expostos às dúvidas e críticas dos alunos. Nesse sentido apresento a esses professores, juristas desocupados, uma técnica pedagógica resumida e de fácil compreensão para ministrarem sem maiores sobressaltos a cadeira de filosofia do direito. Seguindo os passos propostos, o jurista desocupado não terá riscos de ser questionado pelos alunos ou pela instituição, mantendo seu complemento de renda garantido. (shrink)

Pretendeu-se dissertar acerca do conceito kantiano do Direito a partir da gênese da sua fundamentação moral, ressaltando a aprioricidade da mesma e seu reflexo na doutrina jurídica. Contrariamente ao moral sense da Filosofia empirista inglesa, a moralidade kantiana baseia-se completamente a priori, abdicando de uma antropologia em sua exposição e formulando-se como pura metafísica, a partir de conhecimentos abstratos. Coaduna à concepção de moralidade kantiana o seu conceito de Direito, que também não possui, portanto, qualquer fundamento na experiência. Desta forma, (...) pretende-se fornecer uma interpretação sistemática em relação aos problemas da doutrina do direito, especificamente sobre a sua exterioridade, a função da coerção e a formação do Estado. (shrink)

Pretendeu-se dissertar sobre a segunda conferênciada obra O Liberalismo Político de John Rawls. A exposição trata dométodo de justificação do autor, concentrada nos termos racionalidade(concepção de bem) e razoabilidade (senso de justiça);subsequentemente aborda as variáveis – cooperação, voluntariedade,autonomia, limites do juízo, discordância, pluralismo, reciprocidade,imparcialidade, publicidade, justificação, democracia e tolerância. Nessesentido, parte-se da obra supracitada para a sistematização da teoria eresolução de problemas: uma referência histórica em Kant; uma respostaàs hipóteses comunitaristas; a convergência de modelos de justificação,sobretudo uma deontologia com uma (...) concepção substancial de justiça; eos argumentos epistemológicos fundacionistas e coerentistas. Conclui-se,além da unidade da obra, a tipificação contratualista na história daFilosofia, um compatibilismo ético e o caráter epistemológico coerentista. (shrink)

A presente dissertação tem como tema central a proposta da abordagem hermenêutica da decisão judicial em Hans Kelsen considerando seu relativismo filosófico. No primeiro momento expõe a concepção de decisão judicial no autor e as suas reformulações conceituais no decorrer das suas obras – as passagens do formalismo normativista das primeiras obras até o ceticismo de regras na Teoria geral das normas. Também propõe a dissolução entre as leituras formalistas e realistas através da possibilidade de uma leitura realista moderada. Após (...) expõe a filosofia relativista do autor e seu resultado na exclusão dos elementos da moralidade do conceito de direito. Finalmente deduz regras de interpretação a partir de uma visão abrangente das obras do autor. O objetivo da dissertação, nesse sentido, é analisar a dinâmica da criação normativa pelo judiciário, a discricionariedade daí resultante e a possibilidade de interpretar os vários sentidos das normas sem recorrer a qualquer moralismo para tal. (shrink)

A teoria do Direito internacional de Kelsen é monista, ou seja, o autor reúne a legislação nacional e internacional em um único sistema normativo. Com isso, descarta o dualismo e promove uma tese fundada no princípio lógico da não-contradição, traduzido juridicamente para o princípio da imputação. Por essa afirmação, o Direito internacional, considerando o primado estadual, existe a partir do reconhecimento interno da validade da legislação externa; mais, a recepção dos acordos internacionais na legislação nacional acopla internamente o Direito internacional, (...) com seus tratados bi/multilaterais, pactos, instituições, costumes e tribunais. A teoria de Kelsen torna-se complexa, porém, quando, indagando o inverso dessa premissa, o Direito internacional posto e eficaz, já inserido internamente, não reconhece a validade normativa de eventual interpretação ou norma interna e atua como agente determinante da ordem jurídica nacional. Com isso, o Direito externo torna-se decisivo desse mesmo sistema jurídico interno, não necessariamente por uma ação coercitiva, mas por intermédio do seu reconhecimento da validade da legislação interna. Vimos esse fenômeno materializar-se no caso dos dois presidentes simultâneos da Venezuela: tanto o presidente Nicolás Maduro, quando o presidente Juan Guaidó, foram formalmente designados, por países e instituições distintas, como governantes válidos. Sendo assim, o objetivo do livro consiste em compreender esse fenômeno de reconhecimento externo dos sistemas normativos nacionais através da segunda edição da Teoria de pura do Direito como marco teórico. Igualmente, utiliza-se do estudo de caso sobre a determinação do presidente válido da Venezuela como elemento empírico e de falseabilidade. Com isso, defende a hipótese da necessidade do reconhecimento normativo-objetivo do Estado a partir da formação do Direito internacional, independentemente de seu primitivismo. Os quatro primeiros capítulos, na primeira seção, estabelecem uma interpretação sobre a obra de Kelsen, focada em seu aspecto internacionalista. Nos quatro últimos, na seção II, submeto as conclusões teóricas ao caso concreto, falseando-as ou não conforme seu teste empírico. (shrink)

Metascientists have studied questionable research practices in science. The present article considers the parallel concept of questionable metascience practices (QMPs). A QMP is a research practice, assumption, or perspective that has been questioned by several commentators as being potentially problematic for metascience and/or the science reform movement. The present article reviews ten QMPs that relate to criticism, replication, bias, generalization, and the characterization of science. Specifically, the following QMPs are considered: (1) rejecting or ignoring self-criticism; (2) a fast ‘n’ bropen (...) scientific criticism style; (3) overplaying the role of replication in science; (4) assuming a replication rate is “too low” without specifying an “acceptable” rate; (5) an unacknowledged metabias towards explaining the replication crisis in terms of researcher bias; (6) assuming that researcher bias can be reduced; (7) devaluing exploratory results as being more “tentative” than confirmatory results; (8) presuming that questionable research practices are problematic research practices; (9) focusing on knowledge accumulation; and (10) focusing on specific scientific methods. It is stressed that only some metascientists engage in some QMPs some of the time, and that these QMPs may not always be problematic. Research is required to estimate the prevalence and impact of QMPs. In the meantime, QMPs should be viewed as invitations to ask questions about how we go about doing better metascience. (shrink)

The National Center for Biomedical Ontology is a consortium that comprises leading informaticians, biologists, clinicians, and ontologists, funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Roadmap, to develop innovative technology and methods that allow scientists to record, manage, and disseminate biomedical information and knowledge in machine-processable form. The goals of the Center are (1) to help unify the divergent and isolated efforts in ontology development by promoting high quality open-source, standards-based tools to create, manage, and use ontologies, (2) to create (...) new software tools so that scientists can use ontologies to annotate and analyze biomedical data, (3) to provide a national resource for the ongoing evaluation, integration, and evolution of biomedical ontologies and associated tools and theories in the context of driving biomedical projects (DBPs), and (4) to disseminate the tools and resources of the Center and to identify, evaluate, and communicate best practices of ontology development to the biomedical community. Through the research activities within the Center, collaborations with the DBPs, and interactions with the biomedical community, our goal is to help scientists to work more effectively in the e-science paradigm, enhancing experiment design, experiment execution, data analysis, information synthesis, hypothesis generation and testing, and understand human disease. (shrink)

Popper’s (1983, 2002) philosophy of science has enjoyed something of a renaissance in the wake of the replication crisis, offering a philosophical basis for the ensuing science reform movement. However, adherence to Popper’s approach may also be at least partly responsible for the sense of “crisis” that has developed following multiple unexpected replication failures. In this article, I contrast Popper’s approach with Lakatos’ (1978) approach and a related approach called naïve methodological falsificationism (NMF; Lakatos, 1978). The Popperian approach is powerful (...) because it is based on logical refutation, but its theories are noncausal and, therefore, lacking in scientific value. In contrast, the Lakatosian approach considers causal theories, but it concedes that these theories are not logically refutable. Finally, the NMF approach subjects Lakatosian causal theories to Popperian logical refutations. However, its approach of temporarily accepting a ceteris paribus clause during theory testing may be viewed as scientifically inappropriate, epistemically inconsistent, and “completely redundant” (Lakatos, 1978, p. 40). I conclude that the replication “crisis” makes the most sense in the context of the Popperian and NMF approaches because it is only in these two approaches that replication failures represent logical refutations of theories. In contrast, replication failures are less problematic in the Lakatosian approach because they do not logically refute theories. Indeed, in the Lakatosian approach, replication failures can be legitimately ignored or used to motivate theory development. (shrink)

This paper focuses on the process of self-transformation through which a person comes to embody the ideal of her religion’s vision of the divine, as far as that ideal is expressible in a human life. The paper is concerned with the self as the subject of religious commitments, traits, religious aspirations and religiously inspired ideals. The self-transformative journey that people are invited to undertake poses a number of philosophical and practical difficulties; the paper explores some of these difficulties, concentrating on (...) those that arise in connection with the notion of potential future selves. This paper suggests that imaginative reflection upon exemplary individuals provides one way through these difficulties, for these individuals can show us what it looks like when someone achieves, or draws close to, the ideal. (shrink)

A metainference is usually understood as a pair consisting of a collection of inferences, called premises, and a single inference, called conclusion. In the last few years, much attention has been paid to the study of metainferences—and, in particular, to the question of what are the valid metainferences of a given logic. So far, however, this study has been done in quite a poor language. Our usual sequent calculi have no way to represent, e.g. negations, disjunctions or conjunctions of inferences. (...) In this paper we tackle this expressive issue. We assume some background sentential language as given and define what we call an inferential language, that is, a language whose atomic formulas are inferences. We provide a model-theoretic characterization of validity for this language—relative to some given characterization of validity for the background sentential language—and provide a proof-theoretic analysis of validity. We argue that our novel language has fruitful philosophical applications. Lastly, we generalize some of our definitions and results to arbitrary metainferential levels. (shrink)

A tese defende o antiplatonismo presente na obra do jusfilósofo Hans Kelsen como núcleo argumentativo da sua teoria do direito. Sustenta que a melhor definição da sua filosofia não é como neokantiana, mas como antiplatônica. Isso porque há significativas inconsistências na sua interpretação de Kant, o que a impossibilita de ser classificada como tal. Além, encontra-se na sua leitura sobre Platão referências mais sólidas e conceitos mais claros. Nesse sentido, advoga a hipótese de que a obra de Kelsen tem como (...) constante e como chave de entendimento a sua objeção e contestação às teses de Platão, sobretudo a questão da separação entre alma e corpo, isto é, forma e matéria. O primeiro e segundo capítulos defendem a hipótese da inconsistência das teses de Kelsen sobre Kant. Entende que a sua pressuposição de contradição entre a razão pura e a razão prática, assim como a ideia de uma contradição entre ser e dever-ser, não se sustenta considerando as próprias obras de Kant e a literatura especializada sobre o autor. No segundo capítulo apresenta a sua leitura sobre Platão, concentrada na obra A Ilusão da justiça (Dei Illusion der Gerechtigkeit). O quarto capítulo expõe, sopesando seu antiplatonismo, as duas principais referências teóricas para Kelsen a par de Kant, isto é, as teorias de David Hume e Sigmund Freud. O quinto capítulo demonstra como o antiplatonismo de Kelsen articula com os principais conceitos de suas teses, isto é, mostra que mesmo refutando a classificação do autor como neokantiano, conceitos como norma fundamental, liberdade, o monismo entre direito e Estado, monismo entre direito internacional e nacional e o problema da decisão judicial possuem justificativa e base filosófica coerente. Finalmente, conclui com a possiblidade da ideia de uma teoria kelseniana do direito desvinculada do neokantismo e fundada sobre os pressupostos céticos humeanos e freudianos, tanto moral, quanto teórico, ou seja, reconhece a unidade das obras do autor, desde que condicionada a sua interpretação como antiplatônica. (shrink)

According to robust virtue epistemology , knowledge is type-identical with a particular species of cognitive achievement. The identification itself is subject to some criticism on the grounds that it fails to account for the anti-luck features of knowledge. Although critics have largely focused on environmental luck, the fundamental philosophical problem facing RVE is that it is not clear why it should be a distinctive feature of cognitive abilities that they ordinarily produce beliefs in a way that is safe. We propose (...) a novel way to resolve this problem. Key to our proposal will be an appreciation of different representational states beholden to truth. We suggest these different representational states are distinguished by how, in the proper governance of these states, the twin goods of attaining truth and avoiding error are weighted. Moreover, we explain how varieties of representational states line up with varieties of cognitive achievement such that knowledge, cum cognitive achievement, must be safe because of the kind of attempt at success that belief is—namely, an attempt that places the premium it does on avoiding error. (shrink)

In this paper we use an experimental approach to investigate how linguistic conventions can emerge in a society without explicit agreement. As a starting point we consider the signaling game introduced by Lewis. We find that in experimental settings, small groups can quickly develop conventions of signal meaning in these games. We also investigate versions of the game where the theoretical literature indicates that meaning will be less likely to arise—when there are more than two states for actors to transfer (...) meaning about and when some states are more likely than others. In these cases, we find that actors are less likely to arrive at strategies where signals have clear conventional meaning. We conclude with a proposal for extending the use of the methodology of experimental economics in experimental philosophy. (shrink)

Environmental ethicists have been arguing for decades that swift action to protect our natural environment is morally paramount, and that our concern for the environment should go beyond its importance for human welfare. It might be thought that the widespread acceptance of moral anti-realism would undermine the aims of environmental ethicists. One reason is that recent empirical studies purport to show that moral realists are more likely to act on the basis of their ethical convictions than anti-realists. In addition, it (...) is sometimes argued that only moral realists can countenance the claim that nature is intrinsically valuable. Against this, we argue that the acceptance of moral anti-realism is no threat to the environmentalist cause. We argue, further, that the acceptance of moral realism is potentially an obstacle to delivering on a third core environmental ethicist demand: namely, that successful action on climate change and environmental destruction requires us to change some of our commonly-held ethical views and to achieve a workable consensus. (shrink)

ABSTRACT: We argue that the so-called ‘Primary’ and ‘Secondary’ Value Problems for knowledge are more easily solved than is widely appreciated. Pritchard, for instance, has suggested that only virtue-theoretic accounts have any hopes of adequately addressing these problems. By contrast, we argue that accounts of knowledge that are sensitive to the Gettier problem are able to overcome these challenges. To first approximation, the Primary Value Problem is a problem of understanding how the property of being knowledge confers more epistemic value (...) on a belief than the property of being true. The Secondary Value is a problem of understanding how, for instance, property of being knowledge confers more epistemic value on a belief than the property of being jointly true and justified. We argue that attending to the fact that beliefs are ongoing states reveals that there is no difficulty in appreciating how knowledge might ordinarily have more epistemic value than mere true belief or mere justified true belief. We also explore in what ways ordinary cases of knowledge might be of distinctive epistemic value. In the end, our proposal resembles the original Platonic suggestion in the Meno that knowledge is valuable because knowledge is somehow tied to the good of truth. (shrink)

We challenge a line of thinking at the fore of recent work on epistemic value: the line (suggested by Kvanvig in The value of knowledge and the pursuit of understanding, 2003 and others) that if the value of knowledge is “swamped” by the value of mere true belief, then we have good reason to doubt its theoretical importance in epistemology. We offer a value-driven argument for the theoretical importance of knowledge—one that stands even if the value of knowledge is “swamped” (...) by the value of true belief. Specifically, we contend that even if knowledge itself has no special epistemic value, its relationship to other items of value—cognitive abilities—gives ample reason to locate the concept at the very core of epistemology. (shrink)

It has seemed, to many, that there is an important connection between the ways in which some theoretical posits explain our observations, and our reasons for being ontologically committed to those posits. One way to spell out this connection is in terms of what has become known as the explanatory criterion of ontological commitment. This is, roughly, the view that we ought to posit only those entities that are indispensable to our best explanations. Our primary aim is to argue that (...) the moral nonnaturalist places herself in an invidious position if she simply accepts that the nonnatural moral facts that she posits are not explanatory. Instead, we offer the nonnaturalist an alternative strategy for dealing with moral explanations. The strategy is to retain the explanatory criterion of ontological commitment and maintain that moral properties are, in fact, explanatory. The explanations they provide are not causal explanations; instead, moral properties make a non-causal difference to the physical facts. (shrink)

Wicked problems are tricky to solve because of their many interconnected components and a lack of any single optimal solution. At the science–policy interface, all problems can look wicked: research exposes the complexity that is relevant to designing, executing and implementing policy fit for ambitious human needs. Expertise in philosophical research can help to navigate that complexity.

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognizes a type of causal model known as the Rubin causal model, or potential outcome framework, which deserves far more attention from philosophers than it currently receives. To spark philosophers' interest, I develop a dialectic connecting the Rubin causal model to the Lewis-Stalnaker debate on a logical principle of counterfactuals: Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM). I begin by playing good cop for CEM, developing a new argument in its favor---a Quine-Putnam-style indispensability argument. This (...) argument is based on the observation that CEM seems to be indispensable to the Rubin causal model, which underpins our best scientific theory of causal inference in health and social sciences---a Nobel Prize-winning theory. Indeed, CEM has long remained a core assumption of the Rubin causal model, despite challenges from within the statistics and economics communities over twenty years ago. I then switch sides to play bad cop for CEM, undermining the indispensability argument by developing a new theory of causal inference that dispenses with CEM while preserving the successes of the original theory (thanks to a new theorem proved here). The key, somewhat surprisingly, is to integrate two approaches to causal modeling: the Rubin causal model, more familiar in health and social sciences, and the causal Bayes net, more familiar in philosophy. The good cop/bad cop dialectic is concluded with a connection to broader philosophical issues, including intertheory relations, the revisability of logic, and the role of background assumptions in justifying scientific inference. (shrink)

This short article is a “conversation” in which an android, Mort, replies to Richard Marc Rubin’s android named Sol in “The Robot Sol Explains Laughter to His Android Brethren” (The Philosophy of Humor Yearbook, 2022). There Sol offers an explanation for how androids can laugh--largely a reaction to frustration and unmet expectations: “my account says that laughter is one of four ways of dealing with frustration, difficulties, and insults. It is a way of getting by. If you need to (...) label my conception of humor, you might call it an adjustment theory, or perhaps an accommodation theory” (Rubin 256). Mort is intrigued but has his doubts. Mort contends that synesthesia likely has something to do with how humans develop humor. Perhaps, he considers, human designers crossed the androids' sensory wires, allowing them to be able to smash up concepts that do not otherwise seem to fit together, reconstruct incongruities in a manner that is not nonsensical, express the aha-eureka moment of a serendipitous discovery, and even feel blue when they fail at a given task that we were expected to complete. (shrink)

The year in the title comes from “2001: A Space Odyssey”. The article was inspired by reading about the Vera C. Rubin Telescope, due to begin operations in Chile next year. The article I read talked about the telescope photographing the entire Southern Hemisphere sky but the heading spoke of watching the whole universe. Reconciling the Southern Hemisphere with the entire cosmos quickly became the challenge I chose to accept. The Unimaginable Telescope uses multi-messenger (combined neutrino / gravitational / (...) electromagnetic) astronomy, quantum (and macroscopic) entanglement, as well as Unipositional Quantum Mechanics to not only observe the entire universe but also to instantly transmit messages to every possible coordinate in time as well as space and, from “reflections” of those signals which arrive back on Earth of 4 001 instantaneously, pinpoint the locations of extraterrestrial civilizations. The telescope’s functions include the potential to form a spaceship and crew that could be transported to the Voyager and Pioneer probes that exited the solar system way back in the early 2000s. They’d visit the spaceprobes in order to service and repair them, collect them and bring them back to a museum, or whatever … Other topics covered by this article include dark matter and modified dark matter, human/AI partnership, electric dipole moment, quantum/macroscopic entanglement, hidden electromagnetism in cosmological constant, time dilation, Wick rotation, Vector-Tensor-Scalar (and elliptical VTS) geometry, quantum spin, precession related to Mercury and Planet 9, Riemann hypothesis, solar system and intergalactic and time travel, infinite and eternal universe with a beginning, ETs the Extraterrestrials, model universe, origin of life, heaven on earth, Weyl and Majorana fermions, topological insulators and topological superconductors, topological propulsion and topological manufacturing, consciousness, Higgs boson and Higgs field, plus ocean tides and Saturn’s moon Enceladus with A Brief History of Gravity. (shrink)

The Swamping Problem shows that two claims are incompatible: the claim that knowledge has more epistemic value than mere true belief and a strict variant of the claim that all epistemic value is truth or instrumental on truth. Most current solutions reject. Carter and Jarvis and Carter, Jarvis and Rubin object instead to a principle that underlies the problem. This paper argues that their objections fail and the problem stands. It also outlines a novel solution which rejects. By carefully (...) distinguishing value from expected value, one can argue that the greater value of knowledge is merely apparent. (shrink)

To date researchers planning experiments have always lived by the mantra that 'using equal sample sizes gives the best results' and although unequal groups are also used in experimentation, it is not the preferred method of many and indeed actively discouraged in literature. However, during live study planning there are other considerations that we must take into account such as availability of study participants, statistical power and, indeed, the cost of the study. These can all make allocating equal sample sizes (...) difficult, and sometimes near impossible. This, some might say, means that the study would not adhere to rigorous statistical standard (Rosenbaum and Rubin, 1985). However, here we present evidence that, not only is this a false assumption, but that we may actually gain more power in the study by actually using unequal groups. Here, data from a Sepsis Biomarker study is used, in which the aim is to predict, by biomarker level and presence, whether the patient would go on to develop sepsis. It was found that larger control groups may give more power to studies looking for an effect in the mid range but not for large or small effects. This study shows merit in the hypothesis that more power can be achieved when a larger control group is used. Published by the Ministry of Defence at dstl - Reference DSTLTR92592 P2PP2R-2016-02-23T13:39:45. (shrink)